2009 Closer -- Hoffman to Brewers

[sheetskout]

I can't imagine having two relievers, with an outpitch that flat-out disappears, is a bad thing.

First, you can't just toss changeups. Hoffman isn't nearly as effective with his change as he was ten years ago because he's lost 7-8mph on his fastball. Same thing with Villanueva.

 

To respond to Juan Cruz too, I can't justify the Brewers having to give compensation picks for a type-A for the caliber of player Cruz is - and the fact that he is a closer.

[jjfanec]

First, you can't just toss changeups. Hoffman isn't nearly as effective with his change as he was ten years ago because he's lost 7-8mph on his fastball. Same thing with Villanueva.

Hoffman had a better K/9 rate than any year since 2002 so I do not think he has lost effectiveness with his change. Actually if the speed differential between your fastball and change stay the same your change up can be a really effective pitch. Hoffman was very effective last year as a closer, especially compared to the guys we threw out there this year.

[trwi7]

First, you can't just toss changeups. Hoffman isn't nearly as effective with his change as he was ten years ago because he's lost 7-8mph on his fastball. Same thing with Villanueva.

Who cares if he lost 7-8 mph on his fastball? If he throws his changeup from the same angle as his fastball then it really shouldn't matter. It's still going to fool the hitter whether the fastball is coming in at 94 or 86.

 

Just for reference. The past four years the difference in mph between Hoffman's fastball and changeup has been between 11.2 and 11.5 mph. He's been between 84.6 and 86 mph on his fastball the past four years and 73.4 and 74.5 mph on his changeup. It's not like this is some new thing where he doesn't have a great fastball and hitters are eventually going to catch up to him. If they were going to figure out when his changeup was coming, they would've done it by now.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

It sounds like Valverde is available although a trade within the division is probably not likely.

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors...8/11/astros-likely-t.html

[PeaveyFury]

Joel Sherman of Foxsports.com lists the Brewers as the Mets' chief competition in acquiring either KRod or Fuentes:

 

http://msn.foxsports.com/...-Yanks-and-Mets-ambitions

[trwi7]

I hope not. I'd much rather have a couple of relievers like David Weathers and Brandon Lyon than K-Rod or Fuentes. Don't like spending big money on one bullpen pitcher.

[ILuvDaBush]

I could definitely be excited for K-Rod, even with the dip in his velocity (as he has said he gets better movement by taking a little off). Fuentes...I'm more skeptical about. If it were between giving Ben Sheets or K-Rod a 4/58 contract....well I think I'd rather give it to Ben. But it seems as if Ben is all but gone, most likely to Houston...BLEH! I like the idea of having worry-free (and I know last year's saves were mostly of the EASY variety, but he still shut the door) 9th inning.

[sheetskout]

It's hard for me to swallow giving that kind of contract to a closer, but I too would probably be excited to see K-Rod in a Brewers uniform. I would also rather offer that kind of money to Sheets instead, but it does look like he's going elsewhere.

 

I think offering that kind of money to Fuentes is a mistake. Only the utmost proven bullpen arm such as K-ROD justifies that kind of money if a closer does at all. And I was NOT on-board with offering Cordero that kind of money last season.

[colbyjack]

I think the thread title is a little confusing, as it makes it sounds as though Mr. Sherman actually has something behind his own speculation that the Brewers will be competing with the Mets for K-Rod or Fuentes. Despite that reasoning, Adam McCalvy noted last week that the Brewers, in his estimation, wouldn't get involved with a closer since they had greater needs with their starting rotation and lineup, and might have a sour taste in their mouth after they signed Gagne for $10M last year.

[logan82]

colbyjack wrote:

might have a sour taste in their mouth after they signed Gagne for $10M last year.

I think that we were lucky to miss out on Cordero and have Gagne sort of fall on his face with us. I am happy if it left a sour taste in their mouth since I think closers are misused and overpaid. I really hope we don't go out and spend money on a closer. Look at the Suppan contract. Imagine if we had that money tied up in a closer.

[danzig6767]

Unlike many here, i don't think it's a terrible idea for teams with legit playoff aspirations to pay a top notch closer 10-11-12 million dollars a season, even though the save stat is pretty silly. We've seen with the Brewers the last two years and multiple other teams that make or miss the playoffs by only one or two games. Having a top notch closer instead of just a very mediocre one can easily sway the record of a playoff contender by at least a few games, the difference between watching or being in the playoffs. Put Lidge on the Mets and the Phillies have the say Torres closing games and the Mets make the playoffs and the Phillies miss the playoffs, much less win it all.

 

That all said, it's giving any closer a long term big money deal that would always terrify me. I'd have no problem giving K-Rod say a 2yr/26 million dollar deal if somehow we traded for a starting pitcher also, but no way would i give him four years at over 50 million or any closer four years at big money. Besides the injury factors, relievers are just to erratic for that long of an investment unless i'm running a team like the Mets/Yanks/Red Sox that can print their own money.

 

On top of that, not many closers are the truly special type of closers that almost never blow a save. For me to pay a closer big money, i'd only do it for a Rivera or Joe Nathan types that are flat out dominant and have proven it wasn't just a fluky eason of dominence. No reason to pay 10 plus million for those bigger name/reputation types of closers that save say 88% of games instead of a much cheaper one that saves roughly 85% of games. K-Rod would scare me if i'm even the rich Mets. Between some drop in his velocity and slight frame, no chance i'd hand him 4yrs at around 53-58 million. I'd love to add Fuentes, but not at the number of years and cash he'll likely get, especially the years concerning me most.

 

My hope is with more closers on the market than teams in a big need, Hoffman can be signed at a reasonable price to bridge the gap until we can develop a young closer from our farm system.

[fondybrewfan]

This certainly seems conflicting. Not to long ago, doug himself said he wasn't pursuing Fuentes or Krod. I really hope we dont go for either as they are better,cheaper options and we could spend that money elsewhere. I would rather have Kerry Wood or Trevor Hoffman on the free agency market and their is probably a multitude of closers available via trade that I would rather have.

[Invader3K]

One thing that might factor in...it sounds like there is a lot of talk in baseball that due to the glut of closers being available, K-Rod (side rant: Does he ever actually get called "Francisco Rodriguez?" The nickname is really annoying to me) and the like will not be getting the type of paydays originally envisioned. Maybe the Brewers aren't hearing a lot of buzz on him, and think they can sign him for a more reasonable cost than originally predicted. It doesn't sound like any team is really making a strong push on him, which may make him more appealing to the Brewers. Or, as others have pointed out, it could just be pure speculation, and Melvin may not have any plans to even pursue him (or Fuentes) at all.

[JohnBriggs12]

Melvin's on record saying he's focusing in on other priorities first, namely starting pitching and lefthanded bat. Getting a pricey closer before we even know what the rest of the roster is going to look like is putting the cart before the horse.

[yoshii8]

If CC isn't resigned, and Sheets is resigned, and we still have money to get a closer, I for one would love to see Fransisco Rodriguez signed to be our closer. I think he would absolutely dominate in the NL, his K numbers might have went down, but so did his ERA and his OPS against him was .630. If we were able to get him w/ a 4 year deal, he would only be 30-31 years old at the end of the contract. I think it would be money well spent.

 

If this would happen I would think that Cameron would have to be traded to keep the salary down, so then we would have to find a left handed CF.

[PeaveyFury]

Melvin's on record saying he's focusing in on other priorities first, namely starting pitching and lefthanded bat.

 

Melvin also has a history of saying one thing in the media and then going out and doing something to contradict what he said, FWIW.

[Weirdos19]

Everybody says that these guys aren't worth our first round pick. Our pick is alot later than it used to be.

 

Also, we aren't signing Sheets and CC both. We will gain pick(s) when we lose them. So, knowing that, are we really losing our first round pick? Or losing one of five first round picks?

[JohnBriggs12]

Melvin's on record saying he's focusing in on other priorities first, namely starting pitching and lefthanded bat.

 

Melvin also has a history of saying one thing in the media and then going out and doing something to contradict what he said, FWIW.

I don't find it to be the case very often where he's out and out contradicted himself. What he said about expecting to be able to find relievers later in the process makes sense.

 

The problem with spending a lot on a closer is that as presently consitituted without both Sabathia and Sheets or some other starting help and some help on offense this is not a solid contending team even with a top closer. Melvin obviously realizes this or he'd have moved on from CC.

[CheezWizHed]

Also, we aren't signing Sheets and CC both. We will gain pick(s) when we lose them. So, knowing that, are we really losing our first round pick? Or losing one of five first round picks?

Not signing Sheets or CC does not guarantee us a 1st round compensation. As someone mentioned, if the Yanks sign CC and Texiera, we get the Yanks' second (and a 1st round supplemental). Or if San Fran signs CC, we get a 2nd + 1st round supplemental.

 

And yes, we do lose our 1st round pick for signing a Type A FA. And chances are, it will be either the highest of our picks or close.

 

edit: sing != sign

[areacodes]

And yes, we do lose our 1st round pick for signing a Type A FA. And chances are, it will be either the highest of our picks or close.

Don't we just lose the pick that would originally be the Brewers? i.e. If the Yanks have the 18th pick and we have the 24th pick and we lose CC to the Yanks, and we sign a type A, we would lose the 24th pick, correct? (I'm just throwing out the draft slots, I really don't know where either of us picks and I understand that if the Yanks sign Teixeira we get their 2nd and a comp pick).

[PilprinBuddha]

Melvin should play coy until after the arby date is over. If Hoffman or Wood don't get offered arby, then I see Melvin going after one of them.

[CheezWizHed]

Don't we just lose the pick that would originally be the Brewers? i.e. If the Yanks have the 18th pick and we have the 24th pick and we lose CC to the Yanks, and we sign a type A, we would lose the 24th pick, correct? (I'm just throwing out the draft slots, I really don't know where either of us picks and I understand that if the Yanks sign Teixeira we get their 2nd and a comp pick).

Draft order: http://forum.brewerfan.net/viewtopic.php?t=15580

Looks like the Brewers are at #25. So if we sign a Type A, we lose our #25, no matter what else happens.

So if the Yanks sign CC (and not Tex) and Rangers sign Sheets (and no one above him), we would get:

#24 -Yanks for CC

#25 - Brewers - assuming we don't sign a Type A

# ?? - Round 1 Supplemental - CC

# ?? - Round 1 Supplemental - Sheets

# ?? - Round 2 - Rangers for Sheets

 

Thus our 1st Round pick being the highest or near the highest of the picks we may get.

 

Of course the best draft pick scenario is of LA (#16) signs CC and Florida (#17) signs Sheets. Then we would have two mid-round 1st rounders. Not likely, but we can dream... http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

[brewerguy71]

I think there are two valid options out there for the Brewers in the way of a closer, and they could also pick up a starting pitcher if they did the right deal.

 

Both of them involve JJ Hardy and the prospect of signing Felipe Lopez to play SS in case Escobar isnt ready yet.

 

1) Hardy to San Francisco for Jonathan Sanchez, Brian Wilson and an A level prospect

 

or

 

2) Hardy to the Dodgers for Broxton and Kuo

 

Both teams need a SS, and both teams have an abundance of starting pitchers and a closer type that they could afford to unload.

[Hate those Rodents]

I'd rather throw in more than Hardy and get Cain if I had to, than take a lesser pitcher as the top player coming our way along with others. Let's be the pot sweeteners rather than the team getting the pot sweetened for us. I'd also try and get Billingsley for Hardy and throw in more if necessary. Not that we need to trade Hardy this off-season anyway...

[RockCoCougars]

Apparently, Fuentes wants a three year deal at about $10 million per. That's absolutely insane, and cements my disinterest in signing him.