2009 Closer -- Hoffman to Brewers

[Oldcity]

Not to mention his 1.0 WHIP. The home runs could just be a fluke for all we know. Hits, walks, Ks were all good.

[jjfanec]

If the Padres would have been good last year Hoffman would have had 40 plus saves, and a lot of stats have been thrown out to support that he is not really declining at all. He only had one bad stat from what I can tell from last year and that is the home run rate. Outside of that he had a very good year. he is one year removed from being an all-star and two years removed from receiving MVP and Cy Young votes. And as others have mentioned his pitches are ones that are okay if he loses a MPH here or there because it is his filthy change up that is his out pitch.

[Mr QL]

I don't want anything to do with Hoffman. Gagne Part Deux. Money should be spent elsewhere.

[jjfanec]

I don't want anything to do with Hoffman. Gagne Part Deux. Money should be spent elsewhere.

This is the opinion I just do not understand. What are the similarities between Gagne and Hoffman? Gagne collapsed down the stretch before the Brewers signed him and Hoffman was solid all last year and has been for the past decade. I am just wondering what the reason behind the comparisons are.

[Invader3K]

The idea that Hoffman declined drastically last year is ludicrous. Go look at his stats. Yes, he's 41, but age isn't as much of an issue with relief pitchers.

[crewcrazy]

Just throwing this out there, since this is the rumors forum -- what about Kerry Wood for the closer spot if the Cubs don't have the funds to lock him up or just want to move on to Marmol? While there are definitely injury concerns, he looked pretty good out of the bullpen last season. Would it be worth looking into, or would DM be scared off by the injury history and the dollar amount he's likely to command?

[splitterpfj]

Crewcrazy, the Brewers approached Wood last winter, I would have to think he's somewhere on their list this time around, too.

 

I think the Brewers will check on a long list of relievers over the next two months.

[Invader3K]

The question is, do you think Wood is less risky than Hoffman at this point? I'm not really sure either way.

[nate82]

The question is, do you think Wood is less risky than Hoffman at this point? I'm not really sure either way.

Wood will want a 3-5 year deal around $10-13 million per year. Hoffman would be looking for a 2 or 3 year deal around $7-9 million a year.

[Cadillac4274]

The brewers actually offered Wood more money than the Cubs did last year, he took a hometown discount to stay there

[Ennder]

I like Hoffman because he'll probably be happy with a 2 year deal or 3 year tops. While he has been slipping some lately he is still likely as good as Torres at least. Hoffman, Riske, McClung, Stetter, Villanueva, Shouse is certainly the start of a decent bullpen.

[jjfanec]

I agree that with Hoffman the bullpen would be almost set.

Closer - Hoffman

8th - Villanueva or McClung (although Seth is in the rotation right now)

7th - Riske, Stetter

Loogy - Shouse and Stetter but I think Stetter deserves the shot to be more than just a loogy.

Obviously there are a couple more openings maybe for a guy like Coffey, or Aguilar who has been great in the AFL.

That really would be a decent bullpen and could use another arm but it would allow us to focus on the other areas that really need work like 3B and SP.

[MJLiverock]

I posted a number of the stats/rankings of the Brewer pen in the Torres retirment thread but basically the Brewers had about as middle of the road pen as you could get last year. They were the worst bullpen for a team that made the playoffs however and ranked pretty poorly in K/BB, K/9, and number of blown saves.

 

I guess looking at jjanec's list it makes me think the pen won't be much better but maybe some better pen management from Macha or some variances working out positively for the pen will improve things but the low K totals and mediocre WHIP leave me less than confident in the pen.

[Ennder]

Well remember we will have some addition by subtraction.

 

Gagne, Riske and Turnbow combined for a line of 95 IP, 116 H, 64 ER, 6.06 ERA, 60 BB, 70 K, 1.85 WHIP.

 

Assuming Riske is healthy next year and we replace the rest of those innings with something anywhere near league average I'd say we are doing ok. Take those 3 out and Torres since he won't be returning and our basic bullpen put up a line of...

 

297.3 IP, 252 H, 106 ER, 3.21 ERA, 121 BB, 264 K, 1.25 WHIP.

 

What we do to replace that 175 IP we lost obviously goes a large way towards deciding how the bullpen is but the core isn't too bad. Take Mota out of the picture and the core looks even better, there are some decent arms in there just not enough of them just yet.

[jjfanec]

I posted a number of the stats/rankings of the Brewer pen in the Torres retirment thread but basically the Brewers had about as middle of the road pen as you could get last year. They were the worst bullpen for a team that made the playoffs however and ranked pretty poorly in K/BB, K/9, and number of blown saves.

 

I guess looking at jjanec's list it makes me think the pen won't be much better but maybe some better pen management from Macha or some variances working out positively for the pen will improve things but the low K totals and mediocre WHIP leave me less than confident in the pen.

Hoffman had a really nice K/9 and BB/9 last year as opposed to Torres who put up poor numbers for both. That would change some of the numbers. If McClung can focus on being a reliever I think he could have a high K/9 rate although he BB/9 would be higher. Stetter has shown ability to make lefties look foolish and strike out and will get a lot more K's than Shouse. Stetter has just two less K's in half the innings. A guy like Aguilar could be a good strikeout guy and Villy became a better than K per inning when he became a realiever.

Hoffman, Villy, McClung, and Stetter would all help in increasing K/9, BB/9 and WHIP. Riske has never been a big strikeout guy so he wont help. But with Hoffman our numbers would get much better in those categories you looked at.

[bjkrautk]

Hoffman's 2008 numbers are pretty consistent to his previous years (and actually better K rates and K:BB than he's had in the previous 3-4 years), except for a jump in HRs hit against him (at home).

 

That's a bit of a red flag for me, especially considering a shift from the least HR-friendly park in the NL to Miller Park, but it wouldn't stop me from trying to sign the guy. You wouldnt' expect to see more strikeouts than innings pitched for a guy who's losing his 'stuff' - and he understands how to pitch (placement, location). I think he's far less of a risk than Gagne was last year.

[MJLiverock]

I would agree with the assesments/comments added after my last post, especially ender's comment that there just doesn't seem to be quite enough of the arms yet. A guy like Hoffman would be a great asset in comparison to Gagne. I think he brings that closer experience without the baggage that Gagne brought with the steroid clouds, injury history, and miserable time in Boston. Hoffman has been realtively healthy, drug suspicion free, and doesn't have a confidence busting resume like Gagne's recent history.

 

I would feel better with one more arm that is reliable beyond Villy, a LOOGY, and possibly Riske. Hopefully a guy from the minors can step up and be that guy but I think Hoffman would be a very good fit. I wouldn't want to spend the huge dollars KRod is going to want and Wood's injury histoy and money wanted will probably be a no go. Fuentes is a little bit of a mystery to me but seems expensive or over rated not really sure on him. Other than that it seems it would be up to Doug to find a diamond in the rough and squeeze a good year out him a la Turnbow and other guys the Brewers have made into decent releivers for a year. These guys are just so hard to predict from year to year unless you pay big money for a known great one.

[ILuvDaBush]

Is there any way the Friars would offer him arbitration if we didn't sign him before the arby date? They were offering $4mil+incentives, and it has long been rumored that they are attempting to cut payroll through every means necessary. They can't theoretically cut his salary (and more likely, he'd get a raise if they offered arbitration, given the current market for closers). Some may say he would decline out of loyalty, but this is a fiefdom that for all intents and purposes, excommunicated its white knight. So he won't be saving any damsels, or, more precisely, he won't save the owner from his damsel's evil clutches as she attempts her money grab.

 

As for his value to the Brewers, if we don't sign CC, I would rather we spend $8mil per year over two years for a HOFer than 150% of that over twice as many years for a glorified closer, whether it be the Dumpster or Lowe, or Lyon or Fuentes. The former shortstop is an even bigger fascist now than he's been in years.

[CheezWizHed]

I'm banking that Dillard will either be in the pen on openning day or the first call-up from AAA.

 

Anyone think he could be a closer down the road (not 2009, but sometime)? A 95MPH sinker is nice! Of course, he is behind Pena and Aguiar right now for minor league closers.

[Fatter than Joey]

They can't theoretically cut his salary (and more likely, he'd get a raise if they offered arbitration, given the current market for closers).

 

Yeah -- there is no reason for Hoffmann to accept a substantial paycut, unless he gave a discount to a team himself. He is still very effective, and I don't think will regress all that much.

[craig712]

http://www.mlbtraderumors...8/11/cubs-acquire-ke.html

 

It now appears that Kerry Wood will be available. Any thoughts on what he would want contract wise?

[yoshii8]

I'd guess the Brewers would be interested in Wood, since they apparantley offered him a contract last season. That would be very weird to see him in a Brewers uniform.

[fondybrewfan]

I wouldn't mind going after Hoffman and Wood, although one or the other probably wouldn't accept a set-up role

[MillerParkSouth]

I think i'd prefer Hoffman for the simple fact that his contract demands, in dollars and years, probably won't be as high as Wood's. Not to mention the whole injury thing. Although the thought of Wood closing out games for the Brewers in Wrigley is very appealing from a certain standpoint.

[jjfanec]

Hoffman won't cost us a first round pick like Wood either, would he? I know Wood is a type A free agent but I don't think Hoffman would cost anything so I think he is the best option. I think other teams will look at K-Rod, Fuentes, and Wood as long-term closers so the Brewers could snag Hoffman.