2009 Closer -- Hoffman to Brewers

[fondybrewfan]

I would be all for signing Hoffman for 1 year at $7M (I think that is what he got paid this year) with an $8-9M Team option for 2010. Then pull off a trade for Peavy centered around Salome and Periard. I would love having McClung in the 8th and Hoffman in the 9th. Plus Hells Bells is an awesome song.

[brewerguy71]

I would not want to see Hoffman as a Brewer. I think his age and his lack of a dominant out pitch make him very succeptible to the blown save, as was evidenced quite often last year, are big things to consider when dropping big money on a guy like him. I would wonder if Melvin hadnt learned his lesson last year with the Gagne signing when considering Hoffman.

 

As for the belief that the Brewers could pick up Jake Peavy (who doesnt want to come to Milwaukee in the first place) in a deal involving a guy who doesnt have a position to play, is a bit on the ridiculous side. Any deal, if Peavy were to be had by the Brewers would probably have to center on JJ Hardy and include a guy like Jeffress and as many as 3 mid range prospects as well. Its all moot anyway, since Peavy doesnt want to come to Milwaukee.

 

There are starting pitchers out there to be had, ones that would be more affordable, and younger like Nick Blackburn and Glen Perkins of the Twins. Hardy for those two benefits both teams.

[jjfanec]

I would not want to see Hoffman as a Brewer. I think his age and his lack of a dominant out pitch make him very succeptible to the blown save, as was evidenced quite often last year, are big things to consider when dropping big money on a guy like him. I would wonder if Melvin hadnt learned his lesson last year with the Gagne signing when considering Hoffman.

Hoffman only blew 4 saves last year. Torres blew 7, Gagne blew 7, Riske blew 5, Shouse blew 3, and Mota blew 3. I think he definitely would benefit this team. He did not blow many saves last year 4 in 34 chances which is an 88% rate. That percentage is better than Joe Nathan (not say he is better though), Kerry Wood, Fransico Cordero, and many others. He had the same percentage as a guy about to strike it rich in Fuentes and the same as Jose Velverde. Even though he is getting older Hoffman is a great option. Comparing him to Gagne just does not add up because Gagne had struggled mightly at the end of 2007 whereas Hoffman had the 2nd best save percentage in the NL and would be coming to a team who had 3 guys blow more saves than he did last year and 2 other who blew just one save less.

[MillerParkSouth]

Sign me up for a 1+option or 2 year deal for Hoffman. If we can throw money at Gagne, we can go after a legit closer in Hoffman. He's not a dominant closer anymore, but is still a better option than anyone we have and would make the pen better simply by shifting everyone back an inning.

 

and no thanks for a Hardy for Blackburn+Perkins deal. we can do way better than that in the unlikely event we deal JJ.

[Invader3K]

I don't see how signing Hoffman for 7 or 8 million is any more of a risk than signing Gagne for 10 million was last year. Seems like a pretty low risk option to me. Even if he would falter a bit, we would still probably have Torres, McClung, and Villanueva to fall back on if needed.

 

Age isn't as much of a problem with relievers as it is with position players, so even though he's 41, it's not that bothersome to me. Heck, Brian Shouse was one of our most effective relievers last year, and he was the oldest guy on the roster.

[JohnBriggs12]

I would not want to see Hoffman as a Brewer. I think his age and his lack of a dominant out pitch make him very succeptible to the blown save, as was evidenced quite often last year, are big things to consider when dropping big money on a guy like him. I would wonder if Melvin hadnt learned his lesson last year with the Gagne signing when considering Hoffman.

His lack of a dominant out pitch? Hoffman didn't become the all time leader in saves by not having a dominant out pitch. His changeup is considered one of the best changeups of all time. His age might be a concern, but remember Doug Jones? He saved 36 for the Brewers in 1997 at 40 years old with a changeup as his dominant out pitch.

 

Heck, I can't think of a better scenario. Imagine the wisdom Hoffman can impart on Villanueva, who's devastating changeup is his ticket to potentially be a Hoffman-type closer.

[MillerParkSouth]

I didn't even think about the effect Hoffman could have by passing on some knowledge to the young bullpen guys. That makes me like this even more. It sounds like Cleveland and Detroit are going to be in the mix too, hopefully Melvin makes the call at least.

[fondybrewfan]

As for the belief that the Brewers could pick up Jake Peavy (who doesnt want to come to Milwaukee in the first place) in a deal involving a guy who doesnt have a position to play, is a bit on the ridiculous side. Any deal, if Peavy were to be had by the Brewers would probably have to center on JJ Hardy and include a guy like Jeffress and as many as 3 mid range prospects as well. Its all moot anyway, since Peavy doesnt want to come to Milwaukee.

Not to hijack this thread, but considering the supposed "Offers" from Atlanta and Chicago I find it highly doubtful hardy would have to be included in anything. Neither the Cubs or Braves are giving up a single proven player in their packages so Hardy, Jeffress, and 3 others is way beyond anything the current teams are offering. Salome, Periard, and another prospect or two seems entirely plausible to me, assuming the current packages from Atlanta and Cubs are actually what it would take to get him

 

Ok back on the Hoffman topic. I would love Hoffman. The guy had a 1.04 WHIP and a .224 BAA, both very good numbers. He just gave up more HR's than usual last year. I would take Hoffman and his potential contract over Fuentes and his potential contract for sure.

[jjfanec]

Would Hoffman cost any draft picks? If not he is the perfect signing sense every other good option would is a trade or a Type A free agent. Detroit can throw a lot of money at him but I think Melvin showed with Gagne he will open up the pocket book for a closer so it should be interesting. I am sure it wont happen until CC signs somewhere

[MillerParkSouth]

from what I can tell, it doesn't sound like the Padres are planning on offering him a contract at all, so he shouldn't cost any draft picks.

 

Even if he does cost us a pick, I still think we should do it considering we could potentially pick up 2 1st rounders for CC and Sheets.

[And That]

I would not want to see Hoffman as a Brewer. I think his age and his lack of a dominant out pitch

Not true. Hoffman has one of the best changeups in the history of baseball.

 

He's a Type A free agent assuming the Padres offer him arbitration, which is not a lock. If the Brewers don't have to give up a draft pick, it's a no-brainer to offer him a two year deal with an option for a third. Even if they do have to give up a draft choice, it's certainly more than worth thinking about. The draft pick would be the only downside.

[PrinceFielder28]

I would love to have a dominate closer like Hoffman on this team. Plus his veteran presence would be great.

[southpaw121505]

Would 2/15 get it done? Would anyone do 2/15? I think I would..

[JJHardy7]

I'm down with Hoffman, but we'll have to see what other things happen (CC, Sheets, extensions for other players, etc). Hoffman isn't going to be in San Diego next year, but I wonder if he'll just call it a career. My guess he retires or goes to a team that is projected to be playoff bound. I don't know if the Brewers are that team yet, but we'll see what else they do.

 

As far as Fuentes, he does have some Wisconsin ties. He pitched for the T Ratts! I grew up less than 5 minutes from Fox Cities Stadium and got to know quite a few players -- especially Fuentes. He seemed to like the area back then and he's a great guy. I've wanted him for awhile now, but I fear his contract now will be a bit much for my liking.

 

As far as internal players, I'd go with Stetter or at least let him win the job. I know Stetter's walks are a concern, but he seems to have the 'closer' mentality. Stetter also isn't a LOOGY IMO so he may work there.

 

As far as McClung, I don't see that happening. McClung wants to start and I think there was a link posted somewhere on bf.net about how he wanted to get his body ready to be a starter. I know he's wanted to be a starter from day one so it isn't a shock. I'm not saying McClung is so great that he can pick his role, but it he gets himself ready to be a starter he's going to show up in even better shape and have a higher stamina. I'd be willing to give him a spot in the rotation if all that happens.

[Crewin06]

He's a Type A free agent assuming the Padres offer him arbitration, which is not a lock. If the Brewers don't have to give up a draft pick, it's a no-brainer to offer him a two year deal with an option for a third. Even if they do have to give up a draft choice, it's certainly more than worth thinking about. The draft pick would be the only downside.

Does anyone know when the deadline to offer a player arbitration is?

 

Any team that does sign him would be foolish to sign him before that deadline. I think Hoffman would like to finish his career out in San Diego and if they did offer Arbitration I am sure that he would accept and it would cost the Padres more money than if they would have signed him outright.

 

Hoffman would probably make 10 million a year in arbitration.

[splitterpfj]

I apologize, I don't remember which site I read it on today, but Hoffman's agent is quoted as saying, "That door is closed, Trevor is not happy with the way they handled the situation."

 

He will not be returning to the Padres.

[jjfanec]

With Torres retiring and I am assuming his money off the books I think we could move quickly on Hoffman and still have plenty leftover for any other move.

[danzig6767]

The fact that Hoffman doesn't rely on velocity eases most concerns about his age for me. He's thrown a only mid-80's fastball for years, but his change and command is so good, he gets hitters out.

[jwill535]

I would be curious to see his splits the last couple years pitching at Petco vs. Away. That is the only thing that would bother me about this. An aging closer coming off a down year(his standards) going from a Very pitcher friendly park to Miller Park(yes I know its neutral). With that said, if a two year 4-6 per year deal would be a chance I would take.

[jjfanec]

I would be curious to see his splits the last couple years pitching at Petco vs. Away. That is the only thing that would bother me about this. An aging closer coming off a down year(his standards) going from a Very pitcher friendly park to Miller Park(yes I know its neutral). With that said, if a two year 4-6 per year deal would be a chance I would take.

Oddly enough this past year his numbers were better on the road or at least about even. In 2007 he was better at home and in 2006 he was better on the road. So, I do not think it is something to really worry about.

[dpapo]

Does anyone know when the deadline to offer a player arbitration is?

According to MLB.com:

Dec. 1, 2008

• Last date for former club to offer salary arbitration to ranked free agents in order to be eligible for compensation.

 

Dec. 7th, 2008

Last date for player who declared free agency to accept an arbitration offer from former club.

[endaround]

Hoffman's HR rate exploded last season. He could very well be done.

[JohnBriggs12]

Hoffman's HR rate exploded last season. He could very well be done.

Exploded? It pretty much matched his HR rate in 1995 and 2001. His K rate and hits per inning were right in line with his career averages. He might have given up a few more HR because he didn't get his normal work. The Padres rarely had a lead to protect.

[jjfanec]

Hoffman's HR rate exploded last season. He could very well be done.

That seems like a stretch to me. The rest of his numbers were good, in fact his K/9 rate was higher than any year since 2002. One year of a home run increase could just as easily be a fluke when you look at the rest of his stats. What outside of his HR rate makes it seem like he is done?

[sheetskout]

The only thing good about a potential Hoffman acquisition would be "Hells Bells" in the ninth. Three outs (and a 1/2 hour later) when we lose 9-6 it'll be pretty easy to forget his dominance ten years ago....