Orlando Hudson

[logan82]

Hypothetically speaking Player A gets 200 singles, Player B gets 100 doubles, no other hits on the season... they could have the same OPS

 

We know that most players fall between certain batting average so we know that something that extreme will probably never happen.

 

You can look at Aramis Ramirez vs Adam Dunn in 2008 to see two players with nearly identical OBP/SLG/OPS and very different BA.

 

I'm not sure how that's mathematically true Ennder and I would really like to see a statistician prove that mathematically.

 

There are a few different kinds of linear weights out there. They give a relative value of each event over the course of a season. Ramirez and Dunn had wOBA's of .384 and .383 respectively.

[TooLiveBrew]

Yawn. Yes, I know this

 

Then... yawn... you already know that anything a hit or BA tells you is covered by OBP & SLG

 

 

I said Durham was better in 2008 -- so your math seems lacking.

 

I know... for some reason you continue to ignore that you're the only one interested in arguing about that. I am and have been all along talking about Weeks & Durham while they were both playing for the Brewers.

 

 

I don't think you can just say that authoritatively. Let's look at the facts.

 

Clearly this is Ep. I-III jet-booster shoes R2D2, not Ep. IV-VI 0.78 mph R2D2

 

 

Who are these "many" that you keep referring to? -- Are they like the "chosen" or the "forgotten"?

 

The same people that argue over & over & over how awful Weeks is & how readily they'd trade him for a bag of balls. I can't honestly believe you're going to try & pretend I'm making this up. And it would be nice to not have you just mock me, for whatever that's worth.

 

 

Why does it matter more that Durham was better than Weeks post-acquisition when Durham was better over 2008? Durham improved our 2b situation from when he was acquired. Durham was a better 2b in 2008.

 

Durham improved our 2B situation in 2008. Durham was not better than Rickie Weeks during his time in Milwaukee. Why does it matter what he did for another team? You seem to be out to argue points that no one is trying to make. Durham was better overall on offense in 2008. What I've been talking about is the assumption among many/the chosen/the forgotten that Durham was better than Weeks once he got here. That's just not true.

[Fatter than Joey]

Then... yawn... you already know that anything a hit or BA tells you is covered by OBP & SLG

 

No they do not. I understand that BA is a component of BA and SLG.

 

For example you said this:

 

What you want to see out of a higher BA will be reflected in higher OBP & OPS.

 

This is an erroneous statement -- because it assumes that the walk rate will remain constant, which it will most certainly not, especially for a younger player.

 

However, you cannot tell by OBP or SLG the frequency of which a batter gets a hit -- or the BA. Now, in a more generic discussion about a player's offensive value, I certainly agree you can bypass the BA and talk about OBP -- however in this discussion, it seems like everyone agrees that for Weeks to improve he is going to have to improve his BA. I don't think anyone expects Weeks to walk any more than he already is.

 

It is a fact that Weeks had the worst BA among the composite 2b in the NL, and one of the worst SLG. Weeks should not have the worst BA in the NL 2B. You have used BA to show a place where Weeks can and needs to improve -- therefore I feel it is fair game to show how bad Weeks was at hitting the ball. As I said before, Weeks is really good at drawing walks (probably among the best 2b) and that is probably the predominant reason (besides his price tag) he is still has a starting job.

 

I am and have been all along talking about Weeks & Durham while they were both playing for the Brewers.

 

This is not true....

 

You said this...

 

Durham is a far inferior fielder & weaker hitter at this point

 

I found this statement possibly incorrect regarding the 2 players defense, and certainly questionable, when you look at how Weeks and Durham did overall in 2008 at the plate.

I certainly would not argue that Weeks is a better hitter at the end of 2008 than Durham was, or that Durham is a weaker hitter -- In fact I would argue Durham is a better hitter.

 

Now, you did then say this....

 

Weeks was better than Ray for the entire time after he came over from SF.

 

I think statement is probably a bit subjective. As you pointed out they probably did not face the same pitchers, and there was probably some intention to what 2b faced what pitchers. You are probably right that Weeks produced as much as Durham did (as Brewers), but if you want to say that based on that last month of the season Weeks is a better hitter overall than Durham, I'd regurgitate the standard "arbitrary small sample" argument.

 

Clearly this is Ep. I-III jet-booster shoes R2D2, not Ep. IV-VI 0.78 mph R2D2

 

Yes -- I should have referred to R5-D4 whose speed remained constant through episodes I-VI. My bad.

 

I can't honestly believe you're going to try & pretend I'm making this up. And it would be nice to not have you just mock me, for whatever that's worth.

 

No, I don't think you are making up the existence of Weeks haters, however, I don't know why people need to give their arguments a bit of depth by somehow implying that they are part of some downtrodden minority, or that "the many" are some sort of faction of hive-minded drones. Same thing with "the casual fan", -- that one grates on me

as well.

 

However, I am certainly not trying to mock you..... at least until you start talking about Star Wars http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif -- then you better strap on The Force, because I will be bringing the mockery Death Star-style.

 

Why does it matter what he did for another team? You seem to be out to argue points that no one is trying to make.

 

You clearly said "Durham is a far inferior fielder & weaker hitter at this point" -- I would disagree on "far inferior" and "weaker hitter". I'd point to 2008 as evidence that Durham is a better hitter than Weeks.

 

What I've been talking about is the assumption among many/the chosen/the forgotten that Durham was better than Weeks once he got here.

 

I think you have made a good argument to support your POV on this.

[TooLiveBrew]

You clearly said "Durham is a far inferior fielder & weaker hitter at this point" -- I would disagree on "far inferior" and "weaker hitter". I'd point to 2008 as evidence that Durham is a better hitter than Weeks.

 

As best I know, the most important thing a fielder can do is get to as many batted balls as possible. Next of course is converting them to outs. Clearly Durham has the edge on the latter, and clearly Weeks has the edge on the former. From what I remember during the '08 season (meaning, statistical discussions), Weeks's defense was still more valuable than Durham's... RickiE WEEks happenings and all.

 

As for the offense, I certainly won't try to argue that Weeks has produced better offense to this point. However, I will say that I think Weeks is the more talented batter at this point, and I'd rather hitch my cart to his bat than an old dude like Durham's. Ray-Ray had a .345 BABIP last season, so expecting him to replicate a .813 OPS is a unwise imho.

 

As for Rickie, I think it's a good bet that his BA will in fact rise this coming season. His .277 BABIP from 2008 was 22 points below his career rate. I think it's reasonable to project a line somewhere around .260/.360/.425/.785 for him in 2009, & I of course am of the belief that he could hit for a lot higher SLG than .425.

[Ennder]

because it's very difficult to account for the situation so instead we try to heap enough data into a sample that the situations even themselves out.

 

The situations don't matter because you are looking at this stuff in vacuum. They have run studies on how accurately OBP, AVG, SLG, OPS can predict runs. OPS does a very good job, weighted OPS that gives more value to OBP than SLG does an even better job. Never seen one that suggests AVG is more useful than anything else, in fact AVG has less predictive value than OBP or SLG by themselves much less the two combined.

 

Here is an example of some of the Math behind it, found this with a quick google search, I'm sure there is more in depth stuff out there but it all ends up with the same conclusions in every study I've ever seen.

 

http://bluethinktank.blog...2005/12/power-of-ops.html

 

Here is an article including the value of each given result in 2007.

 

http://spiff.rit.edu/rich...ball/lwts/lwts_intro.html

 

Rickie Weeks that year had a .235/.374/.433/.807 and was worth 13.2 LWTS/603 (this includes some value for his 25 SB and losing value for different types of outs etc). He was the 3rd most productive offensive 2B in the NL that season behind Utley and Kent even though he hit .235.

[Fatter than Joey]

Ray-Ray had a .345 BABIP last season, so expecting him to replicate a .813 OPS is a unwise imho.

 

Ray-Ray has had a lot of seasons at ~.800 OPS. He is good at hitting the ball. Will he decline? -- probably -- but Weeks was at .742 -- I don't think Durham is going to drop ~.70 points.

 

As for Rickie, I think it's a good bet that his BA will in fact rise this coming season.

 

He has spent the bulk of his career at ~.235 -- I hope he will improve... Ender points out above his 2007 season was decent -- which it was -- but his BA was identical -- it was his BB rate that dropped that hurt his OBP.

 

I think it may be prudent to have a backup ready for Weeks in place.

[logan82]

Ray-Ray had a .345 BABIP last season, so expecting him to replicate a .813 OPS is a unwise imho.

 

Ray-Ray has had a lot of seasons at ~.800 OPS. He is good at hitting the ball. Will he decline? -- probably -- but Weeks was at .742 -- I don't think Durham is going to drop ~.70 points.

No, but it is likely that Durham will drop by 40 points while Weeks will improve by 40.

[Fatter than Joey]

No, but it is likely that Durham will drop by 40 points while Weeks will improve by 40.

 

I think it is likely one of those events happen, but probably not both.

[TooLiveBrew]

Ray-Ray has had a lot of seasons at ~.800 OPS. He is good at hitting the ball. Will he decline? -- probably -- but Weeks was at .742 -- I don't think Durham is going to drop ~.70 points

 

Without that huge BABIP, his OPS would have been somewhere around .775 or so, and given his vastly inferior range to Weeks I just think that they're a wash -- and that's without considering that Durham will almost certainly decline (in addition to seeing his BABIP fall) & Weeks has a very realistic chance to progress in '09.

 

 

I think it may be prudent to have a backup ready for Weeks in place.

 

Can't disagree with that. I'd really like to see a LH bat or someone that's succeeded against RHP... I guess much like Durham. However, I would very gladly trade some offense for defense when it comes to a platoon-mate or backup/alternate for Rickie. Someone like Counsell, but hopefully not so bad at the plate. Durham's lack of range really hurts at 2B.