Milton Bradley to Cubs - 3 years/$30 mil

[Invader3K]

We probably were not really a 90 win team last year either.

Based on what? They won 90 games, in my opinion, they were a 90 win team. If nothing else, they probably lost more games than they should have last year, especially in September.

[MJLiverock]

I was counting Torres as one of the better ones because of his role in closing out games and being a reliably decent to above average pitcher of which only Villy and Shouse were last year with Mota being close. Out of those guys Villy is the only one coming back. Riske may or may not be improved over last year but to just assume he will automatically be better because just because the Brewers need him to be may be overly optimistic.

 

As far as Sheets and Sabathia being one great pitcher - - Sheets threw 198 innings for the Brewers and Sabathia threw 130, I wouldn't call 328 innings one pitcher. Gallardo threw 24 last year, maybe he hits 175 this year so he replaces 150 of the 328 thrown by Sheets/Sabathia. Odds are his numbers still aren't as good as the combined Sheets and Sabathia and still leaves 178 innings of elite pitching that is lost. They also threw 12 CG allowing an already mediocre bullpen to rest or not bring in an inferior pitcher at all.

 

The combination of Torres/Mota/Shouse/Gagne threw 234.2 Innings last year with a 1.35 WHIP k/9 of 6.6 and BB/9 of 3.7

If I take Gagne's numbers out (just to make it three comparable pitchers to 3 comparable pitchers and Gagne's stat line for last year is probably a little better than Coffey's career line)

 

the 3 headed monster of Torres/Mota/Shouse was 188.33 innings, 1.32 WHIP, 6.4 K/9 and 3.6 BB/9

sliding in Coffey/Julio/Stetter careers lines for those 188.33 innings yields 1.43 WHIP, 8.1 K/9 and 4.2 BB/9

 

So not too much worse, little better K rate due to Julio and Stetters high number in only 30 innings. A higher WHIP due to more BBs.

 

Still have to replace Gagne's 46 innings of 1.47 WHIP, 7.4 K/9, and 4.3 BB/9 which seems pretty average for a reliever. As well as make up about 35 innings due to the 12 complete games of Sheets/Sabathia being gone.

 

So I would say another solid reliever capable of 70-80 innings is needed that can put up a sub 1.30 WHIP, 7 K/9, and less than 3.5 BB/9 before I would call this bullpen improved and that is only an improvement off a pen that was smack dab in the middle of the league last year and the worst of any playoff team.

 

Tim Dillard seems to be the only candidate at this point. His minor league career line of 1.25 WHIP, 6.1 K/9, and 2.2 BB/9 or his AAA numbers from last year as primarily a reliever of a 1.34 WHIP, 7.8 K/9, 4.4 BB/9 probably don't quite translate to the above line for improvement. So even with some improvement from Riske to offset his own performance and maybe eat some innings due to fewer 7-8 inning starts with the loss of Ben and CC the bullpen I expect the pen to be at best equal to last year's middling quality and most likely slightly worse.

[logan82]

We probably were not really a 90 win team last year either.

Based on what?

Good timing. Record in one run games early in the season. We won more games than we probably should have. I don't think our talent was that of a 90 win team in 2008. Every year teams are going to win somewhere in a range around where their talent really is, not exactly the number of wins their talent dictates. Two teams with equal talent can easily have drastically different records.

[Thurston Fluff]

As far as Sheets and Sabathia being one great pitcher - - Sheets threw 198 innings for the Brewers and Sabathia threw 130, I wouldn't call 328 innings one pitcher.

 

 

Actually combined they had the numbers of one great pitcher and one #3 type starter. Our # 3 last year was Parra who had 166 IP and a 4.39 ERA.

If you look at his numbers for July, August and September you find Sheets was not all that much better. July 29.1 IP 14 ER, August 32.2 IP 10 ER, Sept 24.1 9 ER. That is about a 3.80ish ERA over a three month period. during the same time we had CC and Sheets CC pitched like CC and Sheets pitched more like Parra than CC. I think Parra and YoGa can pitch as many if not more innings than that in 09.

[Ennder]

Brewers were an 86.5 win team at the end of the year using W3, I'd say the players who are still on the team right now underproduced compared to their talent though. Most of our overproducers are not with us anymore. Sheets, Sabathia, Branyan, Kapler, heck even Torres probably. Kendall's defense is about the only thing that really overproduced with what was left.

[MJLiverock]

Parra was already in the rotation last year so I wouldn't count his production against the lost production of Sheets and Sabathia. So even with Yo at 175 innings the team still needs to come up with 178 innings of very good starting pitching.

 

If you want Parra to account for 20 innings of that by going up to 186 innings fine but remember Parra wasn't very good during the second half of the year.

 

If you want to call out Sheets performance for the post all star break where he pitched 75 innings with a 3.46 ERA and 1.21 WHIP, 50 K and 19BB effort I don't think you can ignore Parra's post ASB performance. Parra only threw 66 innings with a 5.32 ERA, 1.62 WHIP 69 K and 25 BB.

[Ennder]

If you want Parra to account for 20 innings of that by going up to 186 innings fine but remember Parra wasn't very good during the second half of the year.

 

Parra didnt' have good results. His K's were up, his BB down and his GB% up, all things you love to see in a SP. He just had a high BABIP against probably from the fatigue. He showed great growth in the 2nd half.

[Thurston Fluff]

If you want to call out Sheets performance for the post all star break where he pitched 75 innings with a 3.46 ERA and 1.21 WHIP, 50 K and 19BB effort I don't think you can ignore Parra's post ASB performance. Parra only threw 66 innings with a 5.32 ERA, 1.62 WHIP 69 K and 25 BB.

 

Sure I can. In the context of what we have to replace we got one half a season of #1 type pitching from him and half a season of less than that. What we have to replace isn't two pitchers who pitched at a ace level for the entire season. One wasn't here for half of it and the other didn't pitch like it for the other half. Parra can be expected to improve on his rookie year. I think we can expect more improvement from Parra than we can from Sheets at this point. If we can get a full year of YoGa at the level he appears to be capable of and find another pitcher who can pitch close to Sheets career numbers of a little over 6.1 inning per start at a 3.72 ERA with a WHIP of 1.20 and BAA of .256 we have replaced Sheets. Bradon Looper for example pitched 199 inning last year has a career ERA of 3.93 with a 1.35 WHIP and .268 BAA. That is close enough to what Sheets has done throughout his career that added to YoGa and a more experienced Parra we chould come very close to the production we got out of the Sheets Sabathia combo last year.

[endaround]

Looper's career FIP is 4.23, Sheet's is 3.56. Marcel had Looper's FIP next year at 4.53, Sheets last year was 3.38. Looper isn't close to Sheets, he closer to Suppan than to Sheets.

 

And this is all based on your faulty assumptions that Sheets was bad/hardly pitched in the second half and that "#1 pitchers" have sub 3 ERA for entire seasons.

[Thurston Fluff]

And this is all based on your faulty assumptions that Sheets was bad/hardly pitched in the second half and that "#1 pitchers" have sub 3 ERA for entire seasons.

 

I'm making the faulty assumptions? You somehow seem to assume because I said Sheets did not perform the same way for half the season that somehow translates to he pitched hardly/poorly. I don't know how me saying he pitched like I would expect a # 3 to pitch for half the year translates in any way to - he pitched poor - unless your idea of a third pitcher is far worse than mine.

 

I also should ask how does my pointing out Sheets second half ERA and innings pitched was closer to Looper's career numbers than a #1 type pitcher's numbers translate to Sheets pitched poor or not much? You may know numbers and I learn from you but sometimes you seem to have problems translating them to specific arguments.

 

As far as the assumption that I feel a #1 has to have a sub 3 ERA when did I mention that? I did say his production for half the year was less than what we should expect from that type of pitcher. Given the context of the point being made, that the loss of the actual production from Sheets and CC combined last year is not as hard to replace as it would be if they both pitched all year like two top flight pitchers, I think there is more merit to that than his projected or career FIP. Quite frankly I don't even know what that has to do with last year's production.

 

I used Looper as an example of a pitcher who is very average to demonstrate how replacing the Sheets we saw after the CC acquisition was not as difficult as it would be to replace a top level Sheets. In reality if this team had won the same number of games as they did with both Sheets and CC performing at their best all year long we would have a far more difficult time replacing their loss than what we have to replace now in order to maintain the same level of production. What we have to replace is half a year of CC and half a year of Sheets the ace and half a year of Sheets the number three (my type of #3 not yours which seems to be one who pitches poorly or not much). Not Cy Young Sheets and the CC we saw for a full year.

[MJLiverock]

Backupcathcers,

Sheets ERA after the All Star break was 3.46 with a 1.21 WHIP and a 2.6 BB/K ratio. His K rate dropped some after the break going from 7.9/9 to 6 per 9. He even threw 2 shutouts after the break I just don't know where you are coming up with the idea he was Looperish or only a #3 type starter in the second half.

 

Even in your example which is bascially just 2 more starts than the after ASB numbers

Actually combined they had the numbers of one great pitcher and one #3 type starter. Our # 3 last year was Parra who had 166 IP and a 4.39 ERA.

If you look at his numbers for July, August and September you find Sheets was not all that much better. July 29.1 IP 14 ER, August 32.2 IP 10 ER, Sept 24.1 9 ER. That is about a 3.80ish ERA over a three month period. during the same time we had CC and Sheets CC pitched like CC and Sheets pitched more like Parra than CC. I think Parra and YoGa can pitch as many if not more innings than that in 09.

 

Those numbers for Sheets are 86.1 innings and 33 earned runs which if I am calculating ERA properly is a 3.45 ERA not 3.80ish and still much better than a typical #3 starter including Parra.

 

Sheets 1st half of 123 innings was phenomenal, CC's 130 was phenomenal. That is 253 innings of phenomenal pitching. Yo might go 180, even giving him benefit of the doubt and saying 200 leaves 53 phenomenal innings and the 86 Sheets threw in the second half which were much better than the #3 type quallity assumed even with the faulty 3.80 ERA assumption. Yo's 200 innings most likely won't come close to the ridiculously good 253 innings performance by Sheets/CC so those innings will see a drop off and his numbers most likely won't match an average of the 53 and 86 inning performance which will average out to excellent pitching numbers and much better than #3 quality.

 

EDIT:

I just want to mention I am not trying to pick a fight with you Backup, I just vehemently disagree some of the posts I have seen that insinuate that the Brewers can lose two pitchers like CC and Sheets and replace that quality with Yo and some guy like Looper or another scrap heap reclemation by Melvin without seeing a serious decline in the rotation and rippling into the bullpen.

[Thurston Fluff]

I just want to mention I am not trying to pick a fight with you Backup, I just vehemently disagree some of the posts I have seen that insinuate that the Brewers can lose two pitchers like CC and Sheets and replace that quality with Yo and some guy like Looper or another scrap heap reclemation by Melvin without seeing a serious decline in the rotation and rippling into the bullpen.

 

I never thought you were doing anything of the sort. We disagree with what we need to replace. I may very well be wrong but when I look at it I see a guy who was compared Lincecum coming into 08 being on the staff and a Parra who should be more constant all year with one more year and another guy to be named replacing two pitchers who combined made one great one and one, when taking into consideration reliability and performance was slightly above average one.

Admittedly Looper was not the best comparison. But I guess I would rather have him the last two Septembers than Sheets the last couple Septembers. I think looking back you are rihgt he was better than a three. He was not better than what I think we can get out of Parra or YoGa next year.