Milton Bradley to Cubs - 3 years/$30 mil

[jjfanec]

What does Fukudome project defensively as in CF anyways? I would guess that he would be worse than what he was in RF last year defensively. That is a lot of ground that Johnson and Fukudome are going to need to cover in the OF between Soriano and Bradley.

This is a great question. I know many questioned his range to play CF when the Cubs signed him, so I assume that would still be an issue. He has a great arm, but if his range is below average, with Soriano and Bradley that will be a rough OF. Bradley may be a decent fielder when healthy, but when he is nicked up his range will go down. This team will struggle defensively. Bradley bat will play well for them though.

I really disliked the DeRosa trade for the Cubs. He was such an important part of that team and they are now thin up the middle with Theriot, Fontenot, Cedeno, and Miles. It will be interesting to see what kind of number Fontenot can put up with more playing time, but I am sure they are assuming Theriot's BAbip will drop from the .340 clip he had last year, somewhere closer to the norm. His BABip has fluctuated quite a bit in his three full seasons. If it drops even to .320 with his lack of power he will be a liability, add that to Miles or an unproven Fontenot, I do not what questions this team has answered, or how they have made themselves that much better. That being said I really dislike the Cubs so I am biased

[owbc]

This is a great move for the Cubs.

 

I agree with the comments about the Cubs now valuing OBP--I wish the Brewers would take notice. Weeks and Fielder are good about getting on base, but that's about it. This is also a major upgrade over Fukudome in RF. Fukudome might not be the best defensive CF in the world, but his low slugging makes less of a difference there than in right. The Brewers were inferior to begin, we lost our two best starting pitchers, and the Cubs have outperformed us in the offseason. On paper the Cubs look like the NL World Series favorite and 10-15 games better than the Brewers (95-100 wins vs. 80-85).

 

There are a few issues--the injury risk--and Bradley's insane BABIP last year. I don't see him replicating last year's numbers, but even if he gets close, it's a major upgrade. Any potential conflict with Zambrano or defensive liabilities seem like wishful thinking.

 

Despite all that, the Brewers and Astros are the teams with the best shot at catching them, and the weak bottom half of the division could help get the wildcard out of the central again. There's still a few months to go to make some moves...

[Ennder]

The astros are a sub .500 team right now. This is a really mediocre to bad series of moves for the Cubs. They have destroyed their depth in order to chase a player that may not be there to help them come playoff time which is what they are really building for. They could have done nothing and won the division most likely but instead they killed their depth and added injury question marks and probably made the team worse overall come playoff time.

[AdvantageSchneider]

I think you are over stating the cubs case. The cubs lost Derosa who put up a .857 OPS last year. That's pretty comparable to what they should expect to get out of Bradley if you look at his road numbers, career numbers and take into account he won't be DH'ing this year like he was last year.

 

They also 250 AB's out of Jim Edmonds who put up the mind boggling .937 OPS and replace him with .738 OPS Fuku plus whatever reed johnson gives them.

 

They lost wood, Dempster is bound to regress to the mean and they don't have a lot of depth in their rotation. Most of their important players, other than Soto are over 30, so you can expect them to give back a little of their performance. The brewers are still young enough to improve.

 

The cubs will be good, but I'm not convinced anything they've done is better than treading water this offseason, and there is the possibility the Bradley contract could be a major mistake.

[Teatoe993]

Bradley will match and probably exceed Derosa's numbers at the plate. The thing that is missing is that Bradley can't play all the positions that Derosa could. I don't even know what Derosa's listed position is. 2B I think. Basically all the Cubs did was plug him in wherever there was an injury or a guy who needed a day off. The Cubs are gonna miss that flexibility more than they realize.

[Thurston Fluff]

Why does a team that easily won the division make lateral moves? It seems silly to get rid of a player that did so well for them in Derosa just to replace him with an player of unknown value to their situation. If I was a Cub fan I'd rather keep the 97 win team intact instead of tinkering with the success.

I do think the team played above their head last year with several having career years but they should have been given a chance to prove it wasn't.

[Boy Jeenius]

On XM yesterday, a reporter for the Sun Times said that the De Rosa deal for minor league pitching, the signing of Miles as a significantly cheaper replacement, this deal with Bradley, then a trade of Marquis to Colorado(with the Cubs picking up a bunch of that salary) are pre-cursor moves to the Peavy talks being rekindled. I must admit, it sounded pretty smart, and as a Brewer fan I did not like it one bit.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

I can't wait for the first Bradley vs Pinella tirade. I hope it rips the clubhouse apart.

[Fear The Chorizo]

On XM yesterday, a reporter for the Sun Times said that the De Rosa deal for minor league pitching, the signing of Miles as a significantly cheaper replacement, this deal with Bradley, then a trade of Marquis to Colorado(with the Cubs picking up a bunch of that salary) are pre-cursor moves to the Peavy talks being rekindled. I must admit, it sounded pretty smart, and as a Brewer fan I did not like it one bit.

 

That all makes sense except all the money they saved by dealing DeRosa and Marquis has been eaten up by Vizcaino and Bradley's contracts - they still don't have much of anything in their farm system that the Padres would consider moving Peavy for.

 

I would be more worried about a Peavy trade if the Cubs had gotten a better return for trading DeRosa and didn't sign Bradley.

[MJLiverock]

Bradley fills the need of a LH bat (he is a switch hitter), he put a .940 OPS last year vs. RH pitching vs. DeRosa's approx. .840 vs. RH. Maybe Bradley regresses a little but if you believe that then there is no reason not to believe DeRosa won't either since he just had the best year of his career.

 

The Cubs lost some flexibility but got a better bat.

 

They lost Wood, but added Gregg who may be a little worse but in looking at his K's, WHIP, and BAA he isn't too bad maybe a few more walks.

 

They have Harden for the full year now and Marquis is gone.

 

The signing of Miles is just a back up player and hardly a make or break signing.

 

So far the Brewers have lost their 3 best pitchers from a year ago. Including a guy in Sabathia who drug the team kicking and screaming across the finish line.

The Brewers will have Gallardo for a full year. He is making his first full season of starts at the ML level coming off missing 90% of a season with an injury. The Brewers are still a minimum of 180-200 innings of ace starting pitching below last year's level.

 

The Brewers have Coffey and Julio to replace Gagne and Mota, so probably a wash there.

 

And...

 

Nothing else, not even a back up infielder to replace Counsell. Making the Miles signing still better than anything the Brewers have done.

 

What about Kapler, anything there? Or is Trot Nixon the answer?

 

I just don't agree at all the Cubs moves have made them worse or that the gap between the Brewers Cubs has been narrowed one bit. At worst the Cubs have stayed the same if not improved while the Brewers have gotten worse.

[jjfanec]

On XM yesterday, a reporter for the Sun Times said that the De Rosa deal for minor league pitching, the signing of Miles as a significantly cheaper replacement, this deal with Bradley, then a trade of Marquis to Colorado(with the Cubs picking up a bunch of that salary) are pre-cursor moves to the Peavy talks being rekindled. I must admit, it sounded pretty smart, and as a Brewer fan I did not like it one bit.

The problem is who are they going to trade for Peavey? By trading De Rosa they are forced to keep Fontenot in my mind who was supposed to be part of the deal. That leaves Pie, Marshall and Vitters as potential people to trade but if they do that they cripple an already weak farm system and have no rotation depth. With Z, Peavey, Harden, Lilly and Dempster maybe they do not need depth, but the injury history of Harden and the increasing injuries for Zambrano means they would need someone to start a fair amount of games this season. They already trading good prospects to get Gregg so their system would be bad. They would building for a one-two year run with as many guys they have that are aging.

[Ennder]

I don't think anyone is saying the Cubs are worse than last year, just not any better. They have moved some pieces around, become a little riskier as a team and not really gotten any better.

[JohnBriggs12]

What depth did the Cubs lose? They still have Reed Johnson, Mike Fontenot, Ronnie Cedeno and they've added Gathright who essentially replaces Pie which is an upgrade. Edmonds is replaced by Bradley, who's a much better hitter. DeRosa is replaced by Miles. That's a downgrade to be sure, but DeRosa is coming off a career year and is 34 years old.

 

Hoffpauir is probably an upgrade over Ward as the 25th guy.

 

Arguably if they sign Bako to replace Blanco, that's a slight downgrade, but Soto figures to play 140 games anyway.

 

The one area they are vulnerable where they weren't last year is 3B. Ramirez occasionally has some issues that causes him to miss games. Without DeRosa (and Casey McGehee) they don't have depth there.

 

Bradley gives them balance too. The big 3 of Ramirez, Lee and Soriano are all right handed. Having a big lefty bat like Bradley in that group against righthanded starters is a big plus.

 

Barring a Peavy trade, Sean Marshall replaces Marquis as the 5th starter, but his credentials (ERA under 4 the last 2 years) are pretty solid as a 5th starter. Behind them they have guys like Kevin Hart, Angel Guzman, Mitch Atkins (17-7 combined AA and AAA) and possibly Samardzija who was very good in 6 AAA starts. Not a super group, but some potential there. That's assuming too they're done, and I don't think they are.

[jjfanec]

What depth did the Cubs lose? They still have Reed Johnson, Mike Fontenot, Ronnie Cedeno and they've added Gathright who essentially replaces Pie which is an upgrade. Edmonds is replaced by Bradley, who's a much better hitter. DeRosa is replaced by Miles. That's a downgrade to be sure, but DeRosa is coming off a career year and is 34 years old.

I am not sure if you were responding to my post, but I was referring to their lack of depth if they traded for Peavy because they would likely have to give up Fontenot and Marshall to do it and that would crush their depth.

Bradley is an upgrade over Edmonds with the bat, but he probably will not put up much better numbers than what Edmonds did as a Cub when he had a .937 OPS. He is just as injury prone and he is not the fielder Edmonds is. It is still an upgrade but for 3 years 30 million it should be an upgrade.

[Ennder]

They lost quality in the bullpen by losing Howry and getting vizcaino, they lowered the quality of depth in the MI, they lowered quality of depth in the OF most likely if Gathright really does get to play and Pie gets moved since he is out of options. They have lowered the depth in their rotation by losing Marquis. They have added more injury risk with Bradley, vizcaino toa team that already had a lot of injury risk on it, they have moved Fukudome to CF which also increases his injury risk. Miles cannot play all over like DeRosa and they wouldn't want him to if he could so they have lost a little depth from that angle.

 

Just because they can plug a player in to fill a hole doesn't mean they don't lose depth. If someone gets hurt on that team the quality of player replacing them is lower this year than last year.

[JohnBriggs12]

jjfanec,

 

A rotation of Peavy, Lilly, Harden, Dempster and Zambrano would win 88 games with the Nationals lineup.

[Ennder]

jjfanec,

 

A rotation of Peavy, Lilly, Harden, Dempster and Zambrano would win 88 games with the Nationals lineup.

I highly doubt it would win 88 games with last years Nationals lineup. Zambrano is creeping up to 4+ ERA range, Dempster will likely go up near 4, Lilly already sits at 4+. Harden isn't likely to pitch a full season and Peavy will likely be in the 3.50 range after leaving Petco.

 

It would be a very good rotation but it isn't enough to carry a bad offense to 88 wins.

[JohnBriggs12]

"They lost depth in the bullpen by losing Howry"

 

That depends on which Howry they lost. The 2008 version who allowed 90 hits and 13 HR in 70 innings and a 5.35 ERA or the 2007 version. Since they won 97 games with the bad Howry, I have a hard time thinking it's much of a loss.

[Ennder]

"They lost depth in the bullpen by losing Howry"

 

That depends on which Howry they lost. The 2008 version who allowed 90 hits and 13 HR in 70 innings and a 5.35 ERA or the 2007 version. Since they won 97 games with the bad Howry, I have a hard time thinking it's much of a loss.

They were the same pitcher pretty much, one just had a blip in BABIP and gave up a couple extra HRs. The important stats for evaluating talent were pretty much steady.

 

Wood to Gregg is a downgrade. Howry to Vizcaino is a downgrade. Marmol as a closer instead of being used in highest leverage situations is a downgrade. Zambrano career trend suggests an injury and a downgrade, Harden's health trend suggests a partial season, Lilly's trends look good. Dempsters season had a lot of luck last year and won't be repeated(though his skills validate a lot of it, he is going to be a decent starter most likely). Samardzija was more strand rate than great pitching so I doubt he sustains it. Marshall is probably an upgrade over Marquis but Gaudin as the backup is a downgrade over Marshall as the backup so most likely over a full season that is a wash.

 

This pitching staff as currently constructed is most likely a downgrade over last years unless Harden manages to stay healthy all year. The offense probably is slightly upgraded when Bradley is healthy and downgraded when he isn't. The defense has been downgraded over last year slightly. It is an old team to begin with so there is always the chance a couple guys slip some.

 

I don't know i think this team is pretty much the same as last year which I'm sure they are fine with given the number of wins they had. I just dont' see the moves they've made as being a big deal so far. They are lateral moves overall.

[jjfanec]

jjfanec,

 

A rotation of Peavy, Lilly, Harden, Dempster and Zambrano would win 88 games with the Nationals lineup.

Again you can read what I wrote saying they might not need the depth if they get Peavy, but they will be relying on Harden to stay healthy for a full year and Zambrano to hold it together for a full year (he has struggled and worn down down the stretch the last two years). Dempster will more than likely regress a bit. They had no real depth if an injury happens which seems likely with the guys they have.

[Thurston Fluff]

So far the Brewers have lost their 3 best pitchers from a year ago. Including a guy in Sabathia who drug the team kicking and screaming across the finish line.

 

Keep in mind Sheets and CC basically were one great pitcher all year long. By the time we got CC Sheets numbers were that of a #3 not an ace. Add a year of experience to Parra and YoGa and the drop off isn't as bad as it looks.

[Ennder]

Also I'm guessing you are saying Torres was one of our best pitchers and he really wasn't. The loss of Torres is offset by a healthier Riske and a lack of Gagne/Turnbow most likely. Gallardo replaces a chunk of what we lose in Sheets.

 

The team lost about 11 wins from the pitching and maybe 1-2 wins from the bench. Gallardo/Parra replaces a few of those pitching wins, dumping Gagne/Turnbow and a healthy Riske probably get back the 1-2 from the bullpen. That means we are down something like 8 wins in talent over last year right now. I'd say right now the Brewers are in the 82-84 win range given it is a young team likely to gain a little bit overall and that we have Cameron for a full year to give a tiny bit more value.

 

If we sign someone like Looper that moves us closer to 84-86 where we hope for some luck and/or breakouts and a wild card. We certainly aren't a 90 loss team though~.

[RyDogg66]

I dont see how the Cubs moves have improved their team.

 

Gone from last year are guys who had phenomenal years for them in DeRosa and Edmunds. They replaced them with Aaron Miles and Milton Bradley. Bradley cant be that strong of a fielder so I would guess their defense would be downgraded with him in the lineup. Add in that he has had a hard time staying healthy and an even harder time staying sane and I dont see how he is that he is an upgrade ofe the .937 OPS they squeezed out of Edmonds last year over 250 At Bats. Sure, Bradley will get 200 more ABs if healthy, but at more likely an OPS in the mid to upper .800s.

[Thurston Fluff]

They were the same pitcher pretty much, one just had a blip in BABIP and gave up a couple extra HRs. The important stats for evaluating talent were pretty much steady.

 

That just goes to show there is so little difference between a bad season and good one for even good relievers that trying to predict what type of drop off a team will have by relievers is almost impossible. The Cubs had three things go their way last year that may or may not repeat itself. Their bullpen's talent was there but so was the usual luck factor that goes makes even Turnbow types look great. A few bad bounces here or there and some of their relievers end up having a bad year instead of a good one. They had a few injuries last year but none at spots that they didn't have some depth and very few, if any season ending/long recovery time types. Several of their players had outstanding years unlikely to be repeated. I don't think the cubs will collapse or anything close to it. The Cubs will be a very good team. I do not think they will repeat the number of wins even if they are as good a team talent wise.

[logan82]

We certainly aren't a 90 loss team though

 

We probably were not really a 90 win team last year either.