Thoughts on Weeks

[trwi7]

Bernman23 wrote:

 

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It's not like Rickie ever saves extra bases on balls hit low up the middle, but he sure gives them up by frequently spiking balls in the dirt to Prince, which thankfully is often remedied by Prince's underrated ability to dig balls out. But he can't always be expected to save Rickie's behind.

Fielder is terrible at digging balls out of the dirt. In fact, on TV you can usually tell when a throw is going to be low or high. When I see a ball that looks like it's heading for the dirt, I just assume that the runner is going to reach base because Prince is awful at digging balls out. He's so bad he even dropped a couple of balls that were perfect throws this year.

[Ennder]

Thankfully Baseball Info Solutions had diligently confirmed some of these observations statistically, otherwise many on this site would have refuted the assertion, because if somebody doesn't track it somewhere and record it as a statistic, it doesn't exist. Even though everyone here presumably being die hard Brewer fans watched 150+ ballgames this past season and saw Rickie continually let the team down in a myriad of ways. If a statistic dramatically conflicts with a fairly impartial and extensive observation.....then there's probably something flawed about the statistic

 

I really couldn't disagree with this more. BIS actually shows Weeks as improving last year and to my observation it is correct, he made strides last year defensively for sure. Generally speaking fans judge a fielder on the first few games they watch involving him and then just remember the big blunders and great plays and the rest just passes by them.

[Fatter than Joey]

BIS actually shows Weeks as improving last year and to my observation it is correct, he made strides last year defensively for sure.

 

He is still bad, and you cannot necessarily claim he is improving or making strides -- He may have made less errors, but that's going to naturally fluctuate from year to year, it is not as if he is going to do worse every year or exactly the same. Mota had a better year this year than he did last year, I don't think he improved though as a pitcher.

 

Generally speaking fans judge a fielder on the first few games they watch involving him and then just remember the big blunders and great plays and the rest just passes by them.

 

You keep saying this. I think it is about fine time you back it up with some stats.

 

Generally speaking stat guys make arbitrary hand waving arguments about fans to discredit their observations, neglecting to realize that even in their admittedly general statement, it may be correct to a specific situation.

[Ennder]

You keep saying this. I think it is about fine time you back it up with some stats.

 

Find some stats saying it is wrong and I'm talking casual fans here not hardcore stat gurus. The problem with observation is everyone sees something different. Wtihout a doubt in my mind Weeks improved last year defensively but then you obviously disagree with it, in fact you just stated that my observation doesn't mean I can claim he is making strides. Watching

 

Durham last year was painful to the point where I think he needs to go to the AL and become a DH. He just couldn't get to anything even if it was almost hit right at him, yet many fans think he was a big defensive upgrade over Weeks last year. If you just use observation you can't ever prove anything, that is my big problem with it.

 

So if my observations aren't enough and the stats aren't enough haven't you already made up your own mind? That is why I stick to stats with my discussions, my opinions and observations can very easily be wrong or just ignored, back things up with stats and it gets a bit trickier to ignore.

[Fatter than Joey]

Without a doubt in my mind Weeks improved last year defensively but then you obviously disagree with it, in fact you just stated that my observation doesn't mean I can claim he is making strides.

 

If you said "I have observed Weeks to have improved last year" -- I would respectfully disagree with you.

 

If you said "stats show that Weeks has made strides" -- implying that he reached a new level as a defender -- I would tell you that your stats do not allow you to conclude that.

 

If you said "Weeks had a better year in 2008 than in 2007" -- I would probably agree with you, and point out he still sucks at catching and throwing baseballs.

[Ennder]

If you said "Weeks had a better year in 2008 than in 2007" -- I would probably agree with you, and point out he still sucks at catching and throwing baseballs.

 

Well I didn't say he was good, just better than in the past. That is what making strides means, he is improving in a noticable fashion at least to my eyes.

[Fatter than Joey]

That is what making strides means, he is improving in a noticable fashion at least to my eyes.

 

Fair enough -- I will respectfully disagree.

[strawbossisevil]

My opinion on it all is this, is Weeks probably below average for a 2B? Or at the very most average? Yes. Could that be improved on? Yes, but at what cost.

 

Our team currently has holes that are worse then our 2B situation at 3B and at SP. The combination of Lamb and Hall are bad at the plate and in the field (Hall´s a decent fielder but he is on the short side of the platoon). At SP we currently have McClung as our #5, which is definitely not ideal.

 

I don´t know why we should spend the precious funds that we have left on an area that while it would provide some improvement, would still leave rather large holes at key spots, simply because the money wouldn´t be there to patch them up.

 

Add on top of it that Rickie is entering into his "prime", and I think there is reason enough to believe that he might actually improve, at least at the plate, if not in the field.

[RobDeer 45]

Do you think weeks improving could be the most vital to the crews success in 09? If we don't get another starter in I think we need Yo to have the biggest leap but besides him an improvement from Weeks is huge! Your thoughts?

[Ennder]

I think Hart taking BBs again and Fielder finding his power stroke for more of the season are probably more important but Weeks improving is right up there. Kendall's defense is pretty darn important as well as if he slips to 2007 style defense he becomes a big black hole at C.

[naivin]

Our team currently has holes that are worse then our 2B situation at 3B and at SP. The combination of Lamb and Hall are bad at the plate and in the field (Hall´s a decent fielder but he is on the short side of the platoon). At SP we currently have McClung as our #5, which is definitely not ideal.

 

I don´t know why we should spend the precious funds that we have left on an area that while it would provide some improvement, would still leave rather large holes at key spots, simply because the money wouldn´t be there to patch them up.

I agree with this on an overall basis. Looking around the league, especially 90 miles south of us, I just don't see the team as presently constructed doing a whole lot. Given a choice between SP and an upgrade to 2B, by all means I'll take the pitching. It is starting to look as if that is not going to happen however. If it doesn't, you need to improve elsewhere, like 2B or 3B. Personally, even if they do manage to fortify the rotation, if you want to be a playoff contender, I think you can live with Weeks or Hall/Lamb, but not both. Think about it, last year we had CC and Sheets (sort of) in the rotation, and acquiring Durham was still necessary to make the playoffs. Now the rotation has certainly taken a step back, and seemingly so has 2B.

[logan82]

naivin wrote:

acquiring Durham was still necessary to make the playoffs. Now the rotation has certainly taken a step back, and seemingly so has 2B.

Weeks was just starting to hit when we acquired Durham so you could make the arguement that Acquiring Durham hurt the team.

[naivin]

Weeks was just starting to hit when we acquired Durham...

 

Huh? On June 30th Weeks had and AVG of .215 and an OBP of .325. The day they acquired Ray Durham (7/20), his average was .216 and OBP was .326. During that stretch he bottomed ot at .207 and peaked at .218. How was he just starting to hit? He bumped his average up to .226 after a 3-4 game on 7/23 and basically floundered there the rest of the year.

[PeaveyFury]

It is starting to look as if that is not going to happen however.

 

One day removed from their first major signing and you think they're done making moves?

[naivin]

It is starting to look as if that is not going to happen however.

 

One day removed from their first major signing and you think they're done making moves?

I hope not...just don't see a lot of moves to be made out there. Not much pitching on the FA market, and I am pessemistic about their ability to acquire any via trade. If you see something I don't, please share. Some guys will be moved to be sure, but obviously Jake Peavey ain't coming to Milwaukee in exchange for Rickie Weeks.

[Ennder]

Huh? On June 30th Weeks had and AVG of .215 and an OBP of .325. The day they acquired Ray Durham (7/20), his average was .216 and OBP was .326. During that stretch he bottomed ot at .207 and peaked at .218. How was he just starting to hit? He bumped his average up to .226 after a 3-4 game on 7/23 and basically floundered there the rest of the year.

Durhams first game as a Brewer was July 21st. From July 21st until the end of the year Weeks hit .267 with a .371 OBP and an .832 OPS making him one of the best leadoff hitters in the NL. I don't know if getting Durham was a wakeup call or if it was just a case where protecting Weeks from better right handers makes his stats look better but he certainly was not floundering.

[naivin]

...but he certainly was not floundering.

No, your right. I was strictly referencing his total avg. floundered in that range (.228) the rest of the year. Fact remains, he was not starting to hit when they acquired Durham, although he did hit better after they acquired him

[naivin]

Durhams first game as a Brewer was July 21st. From July 21st until the end of the year Weeks hit .267 with a .371 OBP and an .832 OPS making him one of the best leadoff hitters in the NL.

For the record, I'm guessing most would not necessarily consider a part-time player, as Weeks was post-Durham to be among the best leadoff hitters in the NL. Beyond that, Ray Durham performed better than Weeks in both August and September, thusly I suppose ranking him even higher among NL leadoff hitters.

[Ennder]

Durham had a .369 OBP and .845 OPS so they were pretty much neck and neck. It was certainly a situation that worked out well for the team. I'd imagine Durham faced tougher pitching overall since I seem to remember Weeks sitting against all the tough righties.

[sbrylski]

You keep saying this. I think it is about fine time you back it up with some stats.

 

Re: Observational analysis is fickle, people see different things and have selective memories.

 

Exhibited above...

 

Both people watched a majority of the same games and saw a majority of the same plays. Their conclusions:

 

FTJ - "Weeks is terrible defensively."

Ennder - "Weeks is improving."

[brewjihad]

Can I contribute something here?

 

I really think some people are still under the impression that average=bad. Here's a nice little post from R.J. Anderson showing how that's not true. Weeks being a tick above average offensively and a little below defensively makes him about a just slightly below average player. That's still +15 to +20 wins above replacement overall, or 1.5-2.0 wins, for around $2 million. The going rate for 1.5-2.0 wins is around $8 million or so-- Hoffman projects right around 1.5 and got $6.

 

Then, of course, you have to factor in the possibility that he improves defensively and/or offensively this year to get an accurate picture. If an upgrade falls into your lap for second base, you take it, but I really don't think you're going to find a better value.

[Fatter than Joey]

Both people watched a majority of the same games and saw a majority of the same plays. Their conclusions:

 

FTJ - "Weeks is terrible defensively."

Ennder - "Weeks is improving."

 

Both could be true.

[zzzmanwitz]

Not much pitching on the FA market

 

There may not be much "top tier" pitching, but there is still plenty out there that can improve the Brewers. Most of these will come at a salary much lower than their value due to the lack of activity this offseason and the economy.

 

Starting pitchers

Matt Belisle (29)

Paul Byrd (38) - Type B, offered arb

Bartolo Colon (36)

Josh Fogg (32)

Freddy Garcia (33)

Jon Garland (29) - Type B, offered arb

Livan Hernandez (34)

Chuck James (27)

Jason Jennings (30)

Kenshin Kawakami (34)

Braden Looper (34) - Type B, not offered arb

Derek Lowe (36) - Type A, offered arb

Oliver Perez (27) - Type A, offered arb

Andy Pettitte (37) - Type A, not offered arb

Mark Prior (27)

Ben Sheets (30) - Type A, offered arb

Kip Wells (32)

Randy Wolf (32) - Type B, not offered arb

 

Closers

Brandon Lyon (29) - Type B, offered arb

Takashi Saito (39)

 

Middle relievers

Luis Ayala (31) - Type B, not offered arb

Joe Beimel (32) - Type B, not offered arb

Joe Borowski (38)

Chad Cordero (27)

Lance Cormier (28)

Juan Cruz (30) - Type A, offered arb

Brendan Donnelly (37)

Scott Elarton (33)

Randy Flores (33)

Casey Fossum (31)

Keith Foulke (35)

Eric Gagne (33) - Type B, not offered arb

Tom Gordon (41)

Eddie Guardado (38)

Jason Isringhausen (36) - Type B, not offered arb

Tyler Johnson (27)

Aquilino Lopez (34)

Guillermo Mota (35)

Will Ohman (31)

Al Reyes (38)

Dennys Reyes (32) - Type B, offered arb

Juan Rincon (30)

Ricardo Rincon (39)

Rudy Seanez (40) - Type B, not offered arb

Brian Shouse (40) - Type B, offered arb

Russ Springer (40) - Type A, not offered arb

Ken Takahashi (41)

Julian Tavarez (36)

Mike Timlin (43)

Ron Villone (39)

Kip Wells (32)

Matt Wise (33)

Jamey Wright (34)

[Bernman23]

You keep saying this. I think it is about fine time you back it up with some stats.

 

Re: Observational analysis is fickle, people see different things and have selective memories.

 

Exhibited above...

 

Both people watched a majority of the same games and saw a majority of the same plays. Their conclusions:

 

FTJ - "Weeks is terrible defensively."

Ennder - "Weeks is improving."

#1. Like FTJ stated, both could be true. He could have just been even more abysmal before.

#2. What gives you the impression that Ennder's opinion on anything baseball related couldn't be heavily influenced by a statistic? He's one of the biggest, if not the biggest stathead on this board.

 

It's also a fallacy that two different observations cancel each other out. Why can't one persons observations be ignored because they regularly prove to be biased and disproportionately inaccurate (I'm not implying anyone specific), while the others is given credence because the reverse is true? It's illogical to say because Corky doesn't know what he's talking about we shouldn't pay any mind to Thomas Jefferson. Quantitative analysis is more consistent and "safe" because it negates human error but qualitative analysis has way more potential because humans can customize, be more flexible, fill gaps in the system, etc.

[logan82]

If an upgrade falls into your lap for second base, you take it, but I really don't think you're going to find a better value.

 

This is true of any position. The main thing is to look where we can make the biggest impact to our team for the least money. Replacing Weeks with a player that will outproduce him would be very expensive.