Thoughts on Weeks

[endaround]

How many players are forced to adjust to the big leagues while at the same time feeling immense pain every time they swing the bat?

[SDOwen28]

I am one that is 100% done with Weeks until he 1) Decides to move his feet on defense. Everytime there is ball hit to his right (somewhat hard) where he only needs to take one or two steps, he tries to back hand it and is 50/50 on those plays. It is so annoying to watch because he can get in front of the ball. It happens more to plays to the right but he does it to the left also. 2) Learns to turn a double play. Double plays are a big momentum turner or could be devistating when Weeks air mails in into the dug out or spikes it in the ground. I know it does not help with Fielder being there, but the throws are awful. And they always seem to come in big spots.

Till those are fixed, I dont want to see him at all.

[Gobias Industries]

I don't know. All players get hurt, generally, at one point or another in their career. How long can people keep pointing to one injury as the cause of his inadequate defense and below "potential" offense?

He was arguably our best hitter on that 2005 team up until the injury, and there's no doubt in my eyes he was a better hitter when he first came up before the injury than he is now.

[BREWCREW5]

How many players are forced to adjust to the big leagues while at the same time feeling immense pain every time they swing the bat?

 

It's professional sports. Probably a lot more than you think. These guys play through and with pain every day.

[Nottso]

I love the way Rickie hustles to first base on every ball he hits. I wish I knew how many times he reached due to a slight bobble by a defender. Ya just don't see hustle like that out of too many guys anymore. I'm pulling hard for him to put it all together.

[Invader3K]

And was he really "forced", or did he decide to play through it himself? For all we know, he could have lied to Yost and company about how much it was bothering him, so they wouldn't put him on the DL. Not saying he did, but to say management forced him to play through some intense injury seems to be inaccurate, IMHO.

[Gobias Industries]

He's the kind of guy that does want to play through everything, but it was an absolute no-brainer to shelve him. Rickie shouldn't have had any say after they found the injury. We were pretty much out of contention and he was really tailing off because of its effects.

 

Oh well. What's done is done.

[silversurferr]

Am I imagining it, or is he standing on top of the plate and using a little league bat? Move off the plate six inches and use a bigger bat.

[TheCrew07]

This is true in youth sports and the mental aspect plays a part in the pros but you are way off base if you really think the mental aspect is MORE important than physical at the majors, there is absolutely no way that is true.

Really....

 

When you get up to professional level in any sport, everyone is a talent. It's true that physical talent matters, but what's the real difference between Hall and Hardy for example? Who's the better natural athlete? I think the reverse of your statement is actually true. There are more players who've gotten by on their natural talent so long that they never developed the other tools to be successful. We don't know about them because they never actually made it... That's why the draft in any sport is such a crap shoot, there's no way to adequately measure the intangibles to see what someone will become. Hall of Famers happen when players of great natural talent also have that "it" factor, an almost unreasonable belief in themselves and their ability. Braun will be great, not because of his talent, because he's supremely confident in his abilities, he'll always find a way to do great things. He's talented there is no doubt, but is he really the most physically gifted player on the team?

 

Listen to old ball players from any generation in any sport talk about their careers and their stories are full of great talents that never made it. I've been pretty fortunate, I've had doors opened to me because of my father and friends so I've had the good fortune to meet and have conversations with people that would have normally been way beyond my reach wich have given me a different perspective. I think the closer any of us are to the games, the easier it is to see how complex sports really are underneath the surface, because humans are complex machines.

 

It's easy to make statements in a statistical vacuum like a pitcher was unlucky because his BABIP was too high and he'll likely regress to the mean. The flip side however is observation, seeing that the pitches were in fact poorly located or hanging and got smacked as they should. A player won't likely pitch like crap all season so yes BABIP will regress towards the mean.... nor will he pitch complete games all season and his BABIP may increase. Too often the intent or the why is left out of the discussion, when that's the root of the entire problem. I realize somewhere along the line here it became taboo to talk in cliches, but that doesn't make those cliches any less true. The statistical noise isn't noise at all, it's where the games are won and lost. It's like criticizing a hitter who's BABIP is too high... huh? He was wrong for making good contact for an extended period of time? That BABIP and AVE may not reflect the player's true talent, the middle ground that most players settle into, but is does reflect their relative talent level in comparison to their peers. There's more to this than numbers on a page...

 

Statistical analysis should be a tool that help determines value, not the absolute measure of a player's value, his value to his team, or an absolute measure of right and wrong. Any player's true talent isn't the sum of his physical talents, it's the sum of his physical talent + or - the "noise".

[Oldcity]

It's true that physical talent matters, but what's the real difference between Hall and Hardy for example? Who's the better natural athlete?

Athletic ability isn't nearly as important as coordination when it comes to baseball. Many of the best baseball players in the world are bad athletes, actually.

[Wesrob1]

Earlier today I was looking through some of my old issues of BA, and I came across a comment from a scout that said he felt Weeks would have to eventually be moved to 3B. Is that even a possiblity now, and does anyone out there think that could be a good fit for him?

It was Issue no. 521 Oct.23, 2005, on page 22 if your curious and have it.

[Invader3K]

I personally can't picture Weeks at third at all. I don't think he has the arm for it.

[rluzinski]

Call me crazy but my guess is that Hardy is better at playing baseball than Hall is.

 

It's like criticizing a hitter who's BABIP is too high... huh? He was wrong for making good contact for an extended period of time?

 

The point is, some stats don't stay as consistent from year to year for players .... like BABIP for batters and pitchers. That suggests that there is a larger component of random variance in those stats than in others. Sample error is in everything to some degree, though.

 

And if you think random variance isn't real, do this. Look at the leaders in BABIP (for either pitchers or batters) for 2007 and take the average. Then find their BABIP average for 2008. I haven't done it but I don't need to. You will see regression to mean in action.

 

We don't make this stuff up to spite you.

[Ennder]

It's like criticizing a hitter who's BABIP is too high... huh? He was wrong for making good contact for an extended period of time?

 

Making good contact and BABIP don't always have a strong correlation to each other, the reason for BABIP blips are usually things outside of a players control, it isn't just a 'hot streak' for most players. Believe what you want I can't stop you, the mental aspect of the game matters but it isn't more important than the talent. As mentally strong as Craig Counsell is he will never be Barry Bonds and has much of a headcase as Manny is he is still one of the best hitters in the game.

 

Furthermore I generally talk long term and not short term. If a player excels for some mental reason it becomes part of his skills and talent to me. David Eckstein may have willed himself to the stats he put up but the stats were pretty consistent and years he had a BABIP spike were followed with years where it regressed to normal and his stats got worse. Stats don't ignore the mental aspect of the game, they incorporate it.

[mothershipconnection]

"Mental aspects" don't mean anything, it's all behavior, just like swinging a bat. This can all be aggregated as "performance". Inferring hypothetical constructs based on observed overt behavior isn't going to get us anywhere. It matters little whether it's a lack of the eye of the tiger, or just poor coordination: poor performance is poor performance. Even if we can identify the eye of the tiger, we still wouldn't be able to conclude whether it guides performance, or if it's a result of performance.

[rotoherb]

A guy who runs Baseball Info Solutions (www.baseballinfosolutions.com) passed on some defensive stats to me that probably pertain to this thread so I'll post them here. BSI tracks just about everything that happens during a baseball game. One thing they track are "misplays", which are defined as a) a play not ruled as an error and b) lost an opportunity for an out or allowed a baserunner to advance. They also track "good plays", which uses the opposite definition of part B of a misplay. They aren't stats to define a player, just something to use along with other defensive metrics. Some players, like Cano and O. Cabrera actually led their league in both categories.

 

Anyway, Weeks led the majors in misplays+errors by a 2B with 59. In fact, only Mark Reynolds was worse in all of baseball with 67. Hurting Weeks some was that he led the majors in "not making a DP due to bad throw" with seven of those. So if you thought he did that a lot last season, now you have proof. Again, these aren't stats that show a player is definitely a bad fielder or a good fielder. It's just something else to look at which wouldn't be included in a range factor.

[3Putt]

Interesting RotoHerb. How did Prince & Hall do? Seems like they also had many mis-plays that weren't considered errors.Thanks.

[Fatter than Joey]

Thanks Rotoherb....

 

I would like to now change my vote to trade Rickie for a bag of balls.

[TooLiveBrew]

Anyway, Weeks led the majors in misplays+errors by a 2B with 59.

 

Can you get access to how he rates out here -- "They also track "good plays", which uses the opposite definition of part B of a misplay."

 

And thanks for sharing those numbers... good stuff.

[Bernman23]

A guy who runs Baseball Info Solutions (www.baseballinfosolutions.com) passed on some defensive stats to me that probably pertain to this thread so I'll post them here. BSI tracks just about everything that happens during a baseball game. One thing they track are "misplays", which are defined as a) a play not ruled as an error and b) lost an opportunity for an out or allowed a baserunner to advance. They also track "good plays", which uses the opposite definition of part B of a misplay. They aren't stats to define a player, just something to use along with other defensive metrics. Some players, like Cano and O. Cabrera actually led their league in both categories.

 

Anyway, Weeks led the majors in misplays+errors by a 2B with 59. In fact, only Mark Reynolds was worse in all of baseball with 67. Hurting Weeks some was that he led the majors in "not making a DP due to bad throw" with seven of those. So if you thought he did that a lot last season, now you have proof. Again, these aren't stats that show a player is definitely a bad fielder or a good fielder. It's just something else to look at which wouldn't be included in a range factor.

I swear I was going to make almost an identical post yesterday based on my observations about, for one thing, how many double plays he typically blows. The harm would be tantamount to an error because he's allowing a base runner to reach who wouldn't otherwise w/ average fielders being involved. But it's not counted as an error because double plays can't be assumed (even though realistically they should much of the time in the major league). It's also factored nowhere in zone rating if he wasn't the one fielding the baseball, and at least recorded an out with a throw to 2nd. Even if he pulled JJ off the bag enough to make a double play virtually impossible. Then when it was Rickie's turn to make the throw, he often just lost the ball in the exchange, made a slow transition, or errant throw to Prince, pulling him off the bag.

 

Can you imagine how frustrating it would be for pitchers to be forced to continually believe they have to record 4 outs in an inning because a fielder botches plays? They've already mentally believed they overcame the hurdle of completing an inning. Errors and misplays are more damaging to a team than a fielder, especially infielder, simply not reaching a baseball. Because if it's a ball hit at normal speed through a hole they'd just assume it was their fault.

 

Also, throwing errors gives the opponent an extra base most often. That aggravates the harm an infielder is causing, especially middle infielder. It's not like Rickie ever saves extra bases on balls hit low up the middle, but he sure gives them up by frequently spiking balls in the dirt to Prince, which thankfully is often remedied by Prince's underrated ability to dig balls out. But he can't always be expected to save Rickie's behind.

 

And just like with hitting, there are worse times than others to not execute. He had numerous costly misplays late in close games last season.

 

Thankfully Baseball Info Solutions had diligently confirmed some of these observations statistically, otherwise many on this site would have refuted the assertion, because if somebody doesn't track it somewhere and record it as a statistic, it doesn't exist. Even though everyone here presumably being die hard Brewer fans watched 150+ ballgames this past season and saw Rickie continually let the team down in a myriad of ways. If a statistic dramatically conflicts with a fairly impartial and extensive observation.....then there's probably something flawed about the statistic. Stats in their incomplete forms are supplements to what one sees, or a tool to compensate for lack of observation. They don't define players, unless maybe they're dramatic in one direction or another.

 

If Rickie remains on the team he should be moved to centerfield.

[RU Rah Rah]

I didn't closely follow Macha during his tenure in Oakland. Does anybody have a sense about how long his leash might be in a situation like this?

[Gobias Industries]

which thankfully is often remedied by Prince's underrated ability to dig balls out. But he can't always be expected to save Rickie's behind.

If by underrated, you mean that he has actually been successful a few times digging out errant throws, I agree with you.

 

Prince is about the worst I've seen at digging out throws. He's at a disadvantage because of his body type, but the way he swipes at it compounds the problem ten-fold.

[giffted1]

Prince is about the worst I've seen at digging out throws. He's at a disadvantage because of his body type, but the way he swipes at it compounds the problem ten-fold.

Yeah, it seems like Prince's attempts at scooping up bad throws are almost always a disaster. I almost think he'd be better off blocking bad throws like a catcher or trying to trap them against himself because he is terrible at swiping at them.

[naivin]

All the more reason to upgrade defensively at 2B. Prince obviously not going anywhere this year. The trade off between his bat and bad defense is worth it. With Weeks...not so much.

[logan82]

A good defensive 1B would make Weeks and Hall better defenders. Most of their problems are with throws. It isn't like Weeks DP turns are terribly off. They are often in the dirt.