Thoughts on Weeks

[Thurston Fluff]

And no team can be above average at all positions.

 

The Yankees sure are making a run at it.

 

League average players are extremely valuable. A team of all league average players and then Braun and Gallardo is a playoff team to put it in perspective. What you don't want to settle for is players who are replacement level.

 

Then you don't have a team full of average players do you? The point I was trying to make is we can have some Weeks types on the team but too many and you don't have a good team. Those types of players should be looked at as places to improve on if you can but can live with for the time being. I disagree that an average team with two above average players is a playoff team. I get what you mean but a team of average players and one or two above average seems like a stretch. Perhaps over exaggerated to make your point? If so point taken.

[endaround]

Replacement level is the mythical AAAA player, a 29 year old AAA vet. Basically its what you could be expected to get for free from minor league free agents (hi Mr Nixon!). Its more a statistical construct than an actual thing meaning some positions getting replacement level is easy (1B, corner OF) and others are hard (SS because they tend to turn into utility INF and C because every team wants to carry 2+1 in AAA).

[And That]

I think the term "league average" is being abused in this discussion .... If you throw in every clown that logged in any time at 2b in 2008, then perhaps Weeks is "average"... However if you compare Weeks to "National league starting 2bs" -- Weeks is definitely below average both with the bat and glove.

I guess it depends on how big of a net one is willing to cast with the term "average." If you go strictly by the median production, no, he might not be. However, I think a valid case can be made that he's certainly just about average. And you have to include the clowns - their production is legitimate production, even if the production was barely legit.

 

For my money, I expect roundabout average production from him next year... I think his batting average is bound to rise some - this is a guess, but even if his BA rises to his career average of .245, he has an average OBP and is closing in on an average SLG. I also think he has the potential to hit maybe 30-40 points higher than '08, and that would put him above average in the OPS department. So part of his averageishness is still potential - almost any upswing at all and he is beyond refute, average.

 

The other piece of this is his defense. As endaround just mentioned, UZR/150 has him below average (they seem to have most 2B at or below average from what I quickly looked through), but most metrics have him at or slightly above average. With more than the UZR data point, I find it tough to argue he's definitely below average defensively and once again I think it's fairly easy to say he's about average, give or take.

 

If he isn't average, are there 8 second basemen in the NL right now that you'd take over him without a second thought? I'd take Utley and Uggla for sure. If Hudson stays in the NL and at 2B, him also. That's three. DeRosa is gone to the AL. Weeks has a significant advantage in OBP over Barmes, Phillips and Sanchez. I'd probably take Kelly Johnson or Rafael Furcal over Rickie, but they're close. Felipe Lopez is about the same. Ronnie Belliard maybe? I have a hard time coming up with eight. He's obviously not in the top tier of second basemen, but he seems to be in and around the large second tier.

 

Finally, FWIW, fangraphs has him with the 6th highest WPA among second basemen last year (and it's a positive number).

[brewjihad]

Just for reference:

 

Average NL 2B: .271/.338/.408/.746

 

Rickie 08: .234/.342/.398/.740

 

Rickie Career: .245/.352/.406/.758

 

Rickie was slightly above league average last year, and even more in his career. His .334 wOBA last year was a point above the overall league average.

[silversurferr]

I agree with Thecrew07's post on the first page. Ricky is a mystery. He has great bat speed and potentially great power, and is very selective at the plate. However, he regularly lays off hittable pitches early in the count, works the count full, then swings at low and away crap to strike out or pop up. He is thinking too hard. He needs to 1) use a larger bat, and 2) just go up and hack. He should hit sixth or seventh. He is improving in the field, is a hard worker, and will eventually be a little better than average fielding second baseman. That said, I would trade him and minor league arms for Brian Roberts.

[Fatter than Joey]

And you have to include the clowns - their production is legitimate production, even if the production was barely legit.

 

Sure -- but the context of this conversation is "a Brewers starting 2b". You can't interchange "average 2b" with "average starting/qualified 2b".

 

I also think he has the potential to hit maybe 30-40 points higher than '08, and that would put him above average in the OPS department. So part of his averageishness is still potential - almost any upswing at all and he is beyond refute, average.

 

Agreed. If he could hit .260 and still maintain his BB rate -- he would certainly be an average starter, if not better.

 

With more than the UZR data point, I find it tough to argue he's definitely below average defensively and once again I think it's fairly easy to say he's about average, give or take.

 

I find it tough to argue that he is an average fielder. He may have performed better in 2008, but I don't think it is fair to conclude that he has reached or sustained that plateau. He may have gotten a lot of fat bounces last year. Yadier Molina hit .304 last year, I don't think it is fair to conclude that he is now a .300 type of hitter.

 

If he isn't average, are there 8 second basemen in the NL right now that you'd take over him without a second thought?

 

He is probably the worst (save Sanchez) 2b that gets enough bats to qualify for a BA title playing 2b in the NL.

 

Finally, FWIW, fangraphs has him with the 6th highest WPA among second basemen last year (and it's a positive number).

 

*shrug* that's a pretty situational stat.

 

I am not saying he sucks or anything like that. I think his value is in his price tag, he cost us ~$1M last year, and that is a good value, if he gets a big Arby's raise, his value is more questionable.

[Ennder]

He is probably the worst (save Sanchez) 2b that gets enough bats to qualify for a BA title playing 2b in the NL

 

Here are the 2B that had 400+ PA last year sorted by value according the fangraphs metrics and $$ values.

 

Utley - 36.8M

Uggla - 20.3M

DeRosa - 19.4M

Phillips - 14.4M

Durham - 13.1M

Johnson - 10.3M

Weeks - 9.6M

Hudson 9.5M

Matsui - 8.8M

Barmes - 8.6M

Miles - 8.5M

Lopez - 4.7M

Kent - 4.5M

Sanchez - 2.5M

 

If you cut it to qualified for batting title you only get 8 players total and Lopez and Sanchez are both significantly worse than him. Only 5 teams in the NL had a significant advantage over the Brewers at 2B last year and Weeks makes very little money. He earned less than he produced which is how you want to build a team.

[fleehaw]

For those who've said the Brewers don't have a replacement in the pipeline, you might have overlooked Taylor Green. If Gamel pans out at 3B (or if (big if) Hardy takes over at 3B), then Green will most likely be switching back to 2B.

 

To add or reiterate most of the posts in the thread. Weeks is cheap and produces at an average level with a lot of potential to improve. He's perfect for a small market team. No need to fix it if it ain't broke. 3B OTOH

[rluzinski]

Replacement level is a slippery number but most peg it at about 50 wins for a team. That means that a league average player is worth about 2 wins over a replacement level player. Since teams pay around $5 mil per win, Weeks is very valuable at his current salary. I don't think he's average defensively (his troubles with turning the DP hurts him) but he projects to be an above average hitter for his position.

 

And this idea that average = bad and is easily replaceable mistifies me. The definition of average could not be more clear. The fact that teams pay $9 - $10 mil for a league average player should tell you all you need to know. Take a league average team, add 10 wins and you make the playoffs.

[RobDeer 45]

To everyone out there saying that he takes too many pitches, I think you are half right. As a leadoff (who is not a base hit guy) he does need to take a lot of pitches. However I too agree he does take too many and then gets in deffensive mode which then hurts his power. I think he needs to be a little more aggressive in begening of the at bat but not taking hacks. I feel like when he's not in the leadoff he isn't as mentally strong up there. I'm not sure where I want to see him next year but I do think we should give him another year and see if he can improve a little more. If he continues to improve thats good. I know we thought he'd be a super star but oh well, I'll take average to above average.

[sveumrules]

the fact that weeks was drafted #2 overall also should mean zero in evaluating him right now. sure, people's expectations were high at the outset because he was a high pick/the all time leading hitter in ncaa. but enough time has passed that we can look at the 2003 draft and see that rickie (despite people's opinions of him being a "bust" for his draft slot) has actually performed well compared to his peers.

 

20003 first round pick | ab | ops

nick markakis | 1723 | .851

aaron hill | 1720 | .748

WEEKS | 1615 | .758

conor jackson | 1525 | .810

delmon young | 1346 | .739

carlos quentin | 875 | .864

lastings milledge | 873 | .736

 

the only pitchers that have come out of the first round and had any success so far are two chads, billingsley and cordero. john danks was in there too, but he has yet to show too much at mlb.

 

so i guess if five and a half years ago you were clamoring for markakis or billingsley with that number two overall pick, pat yourself on the back for a job well done. otherwise it seems like our "bust" of a pick has actually handled himself pretty nicely so far in his mlb career.

[rudimen19]

I agree with the thoughts that Weeks hitting leadoff is a bad idea. It caused him to be more patient which is obviously good, but he's not a patient hitter so it resulted in a so many frustrating 3-2 K's. I like Rickie and would like to see him succeed either here or somewhere else, but he must overcome what I view as his biggest handicap which is that he is a mentally fragile player. The bad throws or turns in crucial situations, the inability to swing at a first pitch meatball while batting leadoff, are a few of the reasons I have come to that conclusion. I really want to see him hitting 6 or 7 and let him go back to swinging aggressively. Depending on what happens with Cameron, I would really like to see someone besides Hart in the 5 hole and if Weeks can drive the ball he might be our best option.

[Gobias Industries]

It caused him to be more patient which is obviously good, but he's not a patient hitter so it resulted in a so many frustrating 3-2 K's.

I've seen several people say this, so I don't mean to single you out, but Weeks is a patient hitter. In college, every step of the minors, and even in the pros.

 

I've been watching a lot of his '05 and '06 at-bats and he had basically the same approach back then. But instead of always being down 0-2 like he is now, he was usually up 2-0 or 2-1 and was able to drive fastballs. Pitchers have definitely been pitching him different the last 2 years, and he should be adjusting. He needs to jump on the first pitch fastball a lot more often imo. When he leads off an inning he's usually letting the best pitch go by nearly every at-bat.

[clancyphile]

For those who've said the Brewers don't have a replacement in the pipeline, you might have overlooked Taylor Green. If Gamel pans out at 3B (or if (big if) Hardy takes over at 3B), then Green will most likely be switching back to 2B.

 

To add or reiterate most of the posts in the thread. Weeks is cheap and produces at an average level with a lot of potential to improve. He's perfect for a small market team. No need to fix it if it ain't broke. 3B OTOH

Don't forget Alicides Escobar as an option for second base.

[Ennder]

Personally I think Weeks biggest problem is not making strong contact. His career BABIP is only .299 which is low for a speedy groundball hitter like Weeks. Over his career he has had 15.4% of his flyballs result in popouts which is an very high number. His LD% is low so he just doesn't get many clean hits compared to most players.

 

Most people think he swings at a lot of bad pitches but he really doesn't, he has one of the best rates in baseball for that. He only swings at 18% of pitches out of the strike zone. Vlad last year as an example swung at 45%! of the pitches out of the zone and he made contact on 70% of those that he did swing at!

[Baldkin]

I really hope they don't move Escobar, if he's as good as people say he is with the glove.

[TheCrew07]

True Ennder, but it's not that simple... why does he make bad contact? Many times he's caught guessing (his weight is way out in front on a breaking ball) or he's very late on the pitch (oh crap it's a fastball). My father pointed it out to me when we were at Miller Park this summer and I started paying more attention, but Rickie rarely takes a good looking hack where everything is moving together at the proper time. I know you don't like this line of thinking, but sometimes players just have to get out of their own way and let the game come to them. I believe and probably always will that the mental aspect of sports is more important than the physical. That's why I'm on the forget batting lead off and just go to hacking bandwagon... Have success, build confidence, and just let his natural ability take over.

 

A pitcher's pitch doesn't necessarily have to be out of the zone. There is a pretty common formula teams use when pitching Rickie and it's almost laughable how often he ends up in the hole in the count. There's no reason to fear his bat speed when he's not going to swing... Throw a get me over first pitch strike, then a breaking pitch in the strike zone, then waste a couple to see if he'll chase, then come back after him when he's not sure at all what's coming...

[sheetskout]

Don't forget Alicides Escobar as an option for second base.

Ok...this is the second time this thread that I have heard this. Enough. Alcides is a projected Gold Glove shortstop and Hardy would be the one to move. Yes, Alcides is that special defensively.

 

Sorry....I'm done. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[Ennder]

I believe and probably always will that the mental aspect of sports is more important than the physical. That's why I'm on the forget batting lead off and just go to hacking bandwagon... Have success, build confidence, and just let his natural ability take over.

 

This is true in youth sports and the mental aspect plays a part in the pros but you are way off base if you really think the mental aspect is MORE important than physical at the majors, there is absolutely no way that is true.

 

A pitcher's pitch doesn't necessarily have to be out of the zone. There is a pretty common formula teams use when pitching Rickie and it's almost laughable how often he ends up in the hole in the count.

 

He ends up in the hole roughly 4% more than an average player so while he does end up behind more it isn't laughable in any way. In fact he is a very good hitter when down 0-1, it is when he gets behind with 2 strikes that he starts to really stink but so does every other hitter in baseball.

[TooLiveBrew]

I really think that getting Weeks off leadoff duty would help his production. Perhaps not by at ton, but it certainly seems that letting Rickie swing away more freely couldn't hurt his approach. In some ways, it's a shame to let such a powerful bat take so many pitches... but at this point I have to wonder if that's the Brewers telling Weeks, 'Hey, be a leadoff guy & take pitches', or if it's just his own approach at the plate at this point.

[ILuvDaBush]

My question, what would Ryan Braun look like in the leadoff position? All I can do...is laugh. Then again, I would actually be amenable to batting Prince leadoff. Put the big guy at the front of the buffet line.

[lodiness]

I like Weeks, but I don't think that he's a leadoff guy, think that he is more of an 6-7 slot type player. Think that he should start, and if they put Escobar at 2nd' it would be a complete waste of his defensive talent.

[endaround]

I still get the sinking feeling that the Brewers in order to make him "tough" really screwed Weeks up by making him play two months with a wrist that needed surgery when he first came up.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

Starting a Weeks thread is like opening up Pandora's box. There are so many varying opinions and perceptions on him. Yes, he has been a disappointment, but he's still a serviceable 2nd basemen that we should keep due to his price. I think that's the main thing that should come out of this thread.

[Invader3K]

I still get the sinking feeling that the Brewers in order to make him "tough" really screwed Weeks up by making him play two months with a wrist that needed surgery when he first came up.

I don't know. All players get hurt, generally, at one point or another in their career. How long can people keep pointing to one injury as the cause of his inadequate defense and below "potential" offense?