Roberts/Floyd discussions

[fleehaw]

I saw a blurb on MLBTR that the White Sox and Orioles are discussing a Gavin Floyd for Brian Roberts swap.

 

If this is true, I'd hope the Brewers would inquire about sending a package built around Weeks for Floyd and Getz.

[Never Outhustled]

I agree Fleehaw, this is definately something the Brewers should get in on. Floyd is the young, productive pitcher with upside we're searching for. We would control him for I think 4 years. He has a good K rate. He's been durable. He put up his numbers this year in the AL, so they should translate well.

 

What really should make it easy for us to get in on this is the fact we already know we can do a Cory Hart for Kelly Johnson deal. We could ask Atlanta for a sweetener, possibly a reliever or lefty swinging LF Brandon Jones. We could make it a 3 way with Johnson to Chicago, or keep Johnson and deal Weeks for Floyd.

 

The Brewers can then sign a FA bat for LF and move Braun to RF. If we kept Johnson, it wouldn't even have to be a lefty bat.

 

This is the young bat for young pitching deal I've been preaching we could do since last offseason.

[trwi7]

He has a good K rate.

 

He put up his numbers this year in the AL, so they should translate well.

1. His K rate is below average.

 

2. He had a .268 BABIP and a 4.77 FIP this year. He's going to regress no matter what league he's in.

[jimmyb1799]

Count me out on Gavin Floyd. Last season was a bit of an aberration in his major league career. Before 2008, he never had an ERA below 5.00 -- except for his first year in the majors, but that was only in 28 innings.

 

Even last season, his Fielding Independent ERA was 4.77. He got rather lucky in 2008. His BABIP was .268 and still walked 3.05 BB/9. Not to mention the guy has a career home run rate of 1.57 HR/9.

 

Fly ball pitcher + lucky BABIP in 2008 + high-ish walk rate = No thank you.

[Ennder]

I think Floyd is a 4.50 ERA guy so I'm not sure I'd want to actually trade for him. At 27 he might improve some still of course but I don't see him as all that high upside. Certainly not as high as Parra or Gallardo.

[Never Outhustled]

His K rate is below average.

His K rate was 6.33, and the average AL starters was 6.20. Like I said, a good K rate, and it will improve when he's pitching to pitchers instead of DHs.

 

Count me out on Gavin Floyd. Last season was a bit of an aberration in his major league career. Before 2008, he never had an ERA below 5.00 -- except for his first year in the majors, but that was only in 28 innings.

So what a pitcher does before age 25 is what he will do the rest of his career? I'm not sure those 179 innings are nearly as relevent as the more recent 206.

At 27 he might improve some still of course but I don't see him as all that high upside.

He also might improve some at age 26 too, as he is only 25 now. His upside is based on his stuff, which is pretty good.

[Ennder]

Oops I was a year off but this is his age 26 season not his age 25. I still don't think he has the upside that you do. Flyball guy with mediocre control and only borderline K rate is not a profile that you trade for in general. I think people are too high on him because of a low BABIP last year making his stats look a lot better than they were.

[Never Outhustled]

Bill James 2009 prediction for Floyd is a 284 BAPIP and a 4 ERA. When you curve that for a switch to the NL, thats an ERA in the 3.6-3.8 range. Thats the 2nd best predicted for next years Brewer rotation. Floyd would be a fine addition.

[trwi7]

Great article explaining how Floyd's 2008 season was very fluky.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/...oyd-step-forward-or-fluke

[JohnBriggs12]

Guys, there's no way the White Sox are going to trade Floyd. This rumor came out of Baltimore. Everyone in Chicago has dismissed it. Floyd has near top of the rotation stuff and he's fully capable of repeating his 08 numbers. His curveball is close to Sheets'. His fastball is good too. His success in 08 was the result of his better fastball command that allowed him to use his curveball to put hitters away.

 

It would be foolish for any team to deal a pre-arby pitcher with Floyd's ability and record of success for a one year rental player much less a team like the Sox that isn't deep in the rotation.

[trwi7]

It would be foolish for any team to deal a pre-arby pitcher with Floyd's ability and record of success

His record of success meaning one season?

[TheCrew07]

I'm not sure Floyd is attainable but he's not a bad target. With the injuries to Toronto's staff (lame!) the 2 best trade partners pitching wise still seem to be TB and LAA, both of whom need an impact bat and have pitching to spare. Seattle might trade some pitching depending on what Z wants to do with the franchise, but the pickings out there are going to be pretty slim. It's going to have to be the right deal at the right time to a get the top of the rotation starter the Brewers need. I still think to acquire one we're talking Hardy or Fielder... guys like Hart/Hall/Cameron are just not going to get it done, they don't have enough value.

 

You have to give value to get value (unless you're trading for Kazmir) and while Hart is one of my trio of favorite Brewers, his trade value is probably at it's lowest point right now.

[JohnBriggs12]

It would be foolish for any team to deal a pre-arby pitcher with Floyd's ability and record of success

His record of success meaning one season?

 

Pre-arby pitchers aren't going to have long records of success. Floyd was the 4th overall pick in the draft. It's not like he came out of nowhere. Pitchers picked that high are projected to be top of the rotation guys. It's more surprising in Floyd's case, that success took longer to arrive. Some here think Manny Parra is untouchable, but he hasn't done anything close to what Floyd did in 08.

[jimmyb1799]

His K rate is below average.

His K rate was 6.33, and the average AL starters was 6.20. Like I said, a good K rate, and it will improve when he's pitching to pitchers instead of DHs.

 

Count me out on Gavin Floyd. Last season was a bit of an aberration in his major league career. Before 2008, he never had an ERA below 5.00 -- except for his first year in the majors, but that was only in 28 innings.

So what a pitcher does before age 25 is what he will do the rest of his career? I'm not sure those 179 innings are nearly as relevent as the more recent 206.

At 27 he might improve some still of course but I don't see him as all that high upside.

He also might improve some at age 26 too, as he is only 25 now. His upside is based on his stuff, which is pretty good.

You're still ignoring his lucky BABIP, his below-average walk rate, and his strong fly-ball tendencies.

 

His stuff is decent, but not great. A fastball that only runs about 89-91 MPH is not above-average. His curveball is his best pitch, in my opinion, but not fantastic by any means.

[trwi7]

Floyd was the 4th overall pick in the draft. It's not like he came out of nowhere.

Is this supposed to mean something? Matt Bush was the 1st overall pick.

 

Some here think Manny Parra is untouchable, but he hasn't done anything close to what Floyd did in 08.

Parra posted a 4.16 FIP in his first year as a starter. Floyd has a 5.40 career FIP.

[Ennder]

Bill James 2009 prediction for Floyd is a 284 BAPIP and a 4 ERA. When you curve that for a switch to the NL, thats an ERA in the 3.6-3.8 range. Thats the 2nd best predicted for next years Brewer rotation. Floyd would be a fine addition.

I will gladly take the under (or would it be the over?) on that projection. His BABIP isn't likely to be under his career norm unless he just gets lucky again or his FB% goes up even more and if that happens his HR/9 will spike and make up for it. If Floyd is going to improve over his career rates it will be by his BB/9 going down (James shows it going up).

[JohnBriggs12]

"A fastball that only runs 89-91 MPH is not above average" Agreed. But Floyd throws 91-93, not 89-91. Here's a sample from the 2nd inning vs the Twins from the 7/30 gameday. These are speeds of Floyd's fastballs in that inning: 92, 92, 92, 92, 93, 93, 93. In that game, he had 2 @89, 3 @ 90, and 2 @94. All the rest were between 91 and 93.

[TheCrew07]

I'd rather have fly ball pitchers than ground ball pitchers right now, we have an athletic outfield with good speed... on the other hand our infield defense stinks, and no I don't care what metrics say about Hall, he's flash over substance.

 

I've read numerous accounts that put Floyd's fastball in the 91-93 consistently with a deceptive delivery, though I haven't seen him pitch personally. The upper 80s fastball you mention is actually a sinker I believe. The Hardball Times doesn't think much of him though as this article from the season will attest to. The thing about young players though is that there is rarely any sort of consensus about them, a guy like David Price is the exception rather than the rule.

[And That]

But Floyd throws 91-93, not 89-91.

Floyd's average fastball in '08 was 90.9 MPH, and in his career he averages 91.0. Dissecting one game's worth of stats only gives you a vague idea of his fastball velocity. If you caught Ben Sheets on a bad night last year, you might make the mistake of saying he only throws 89-91. If you caught him on a good night, maybe he throws 95-97.

[logan82]

I think Parra is better. Most of his secondary stats are better or similar to Gavin's except for BB/9(Parra walked one more guy/9). Parra just got hit around a little more. I like Parra's almost 2 more strikeouts per 9 innings. The BABIP leads me to believe that they are going to be pretty similar overall with Parra being better.

 

2008 stats(career stats go even more in Parra's favor)

 

Player K/9 BB/9 K/BB HR/9 AVG WHIP BABIP LOB% FIP

Parra 7.97 4.07 1.96 0.98 .279 1.54 .337 71.7% 4.16

Floyd 6.32 3.05 2.07 1.31 .246 1.26 .268 71.4% 4.77

[JohnBriggs12]

Floyd was the 4th overall pick in the draft. It's not like he came out of nowhere.

Is this supposed to mean something? Matt Bush was the 1st overall pick.

 

Some here think Manny Parra is untouchable, but he hasn't done anything close to what Floyd did in 08.

Parra posted a 4.16 FIP in his first year as a starter. Floyd has a 5.40 career FIP.

 

Parra and Floyd are exactly the same age. Floyd outpitched Parra in 2008, the only season both were regular starters and thus the only relevant year. Floyd had better WHIP, 1.26 to 1.54, better OPS against .738 to .766, better BAA, .241 to .272, and lower BB/9 inn, 3.05 to 4.07. Floyd also pitched deeper in games averaging roughly an inning more per start than Parra. Parra had the edge only on K/9 innings, 7.97 to 6.32, but of course Parra faced pitchers, and Floyd didn't.

[Never Outhustled]

His BABIP isn't likely to be under his career norm unless he just gets lucky again or his FB% goes up even more and if that happens his HR/9 will spike and make up for it. If Floyd is going to improve over his career rates it will be by his BB/9 going down (James shows it going up).

His career norm was not established in the 176 innings he at age 21-24.

 

 

Great article explaining how Floyd's 2008 season was very fluky.

That article also suggests that Floyd's numbers would be better at a different park. While I recognize his BAPIP is a little off, as the Bill James projection shows, it can get worse without Floyd regressing to an average pitcher.

[Ennder]

His career norm was not established in the 176 innings he at age 21-24.

 

Yes but to consider that his BABIP will be abnormally low including lower than his major league average so far just because of last year is silly. There is no evidence at all that suggests he should have a .284 BABIP next year. If Floyd is going to improve it will be limiting HRs or giving up fewer BBs most likely. Young pitchers K rates don't usually go up much and his BABIP is going to go up from last year and not down.

[fleehaw]

While Floyd might only be an average, middle of the rotation starter, something to remember is that the deal would appear to be centered around Weeks. I like Weeks and I hope for very good things from him, but you have to give up something valuable to get something valuable. This isn't a idea centered around Hardy or Fielder, both of whom would demand much more than Floyd.

 

It also opens up some interesting secondary moves. Perhaps getting Getz included in the deal or revisiting the Hart/Johnson discussions.

[Ennder]

Yeah I'm not against trading Weeks for Floyd, I guess I got off track there a bit. I just don't consider Floyd a high upside pitcher, his upside is a #3 in my opinion, maybe a #2 if he lands in an extreme pitchers park. He is Chris Capuano before the injury to me.