JJ Hardy & Cameron to Red Sox proposal.

[BrewCrewForever]

brewerguy71, I guess I forgot Drew and Tulowitzki. But I would say Hardy is just as good as those guys. And at this point in his career is better the Tejada.

[TheCrew07]

If the Brewers are able to acquire a solid starter without losing anything from the MLB team, they will have a good shot at the playoffs again this season. I don't see the need to automatically chalk '09 up as a rebuilding year.

How exactly do they accomplish that feat? What's solid? A #3 type? #4? Above average starting pitchers are getting 15+ million per... is that realistic for the Brewers? Do they trade Escobar and Gamel in the same package to acquire one? Any young top of the rotation starter is worth the 2 best prospects in the system, no one is going to do a quantity deal for a quality arm so Gillespie and Salome aren't going to get it done. If they trade the top 2 players in the system then what do they do when Hardy and Fielder walk?

 

The best way I can put this is that many people around here act like assembling a baseball roster is checkers, when to me it's really chess. If we're just concerned with being WC contenders then we can waste money on FA pitchers and the like... the team will always be above average but never great. That's a simple way to build a team, one move at a time, like checkers, looking for that king, the post season. If your ultimate goal is a WS championship then it requires a solid long term plan with a rotation that is WS worthy, and the hardest thing to do in baseball is build a rotation from scratch. It requires a strategy that forces you to sacrifice some key pieces along the way to put the team in a better position to obtain the ultimate goal, much more like chess.

[brosto1]

I have never been the biggest fan of Hardy, but I have to admit that as of now he would definitely be among the top 5 SS in all of baseball. The only three that I would definitely place ahead of him are Ramirez, Reyes, and Rollins. Drew would be close, but other than that I would take Hardy over Jeter, Tulo, Escobar, Furcal, Young, Tejada, and every other SS.

[Oldcity]

How exactly do they accomplish that feat? What's solid? A #3 type? #4? Above average starting pitchers are getting 15+ million per... is that realistic for the Brewers? Do they trade Escobar and Gamel in the same package to acquire one? Any young top of the rotation starter is worth the 2 best prospects in the system, no one is going to do a quantity deal for a quality arm so Gillespie and Salome aren't going to get it done. If they trade the top 2 players in the system then what do they do when Hardy and Fielder walk?

Not trying to play checkers, as you put it. Sometimes it just isn't necessary to reinvent the wheel. They could sign Ben Sheets for two years and voila. There are other 2, 3 and 4-type pitchers available in free agency as well. Signing someone like Oliver Perez, Randy Wolf, John Smoltz, Derek Lowe (although admittedly too expensive) would probably do the trick. Braden Looper wouldn't be bad either, especially if the team also signs Trevor Hoffman.

 

If you don't go the free agency route, trading is also quite feasible. I wouldn't advocate trading both Escobar and Gamel for a pitcher (and I wasn't suggesting they do that either) unless it was a clear-cut ace they'd control for multiple seasons, but what's the huge deal with trading one if it is part of a deal that gets them a good starting pitcher for multiple seasons?

 

To me, Gamel is more replaceable than Escobar, even though I'd say he's more MLB ready of the two. Gamel doesn't play a premium position (particularly if he can't stick at third) while Escobar does. If the Brewers were to move Gamel, what's wrong with simply holding on to Prince Fielder until he walks? That would be a few years down the road and would be enough time to find a replacement.

 

You mention quantity for quality and threw out an example of Gillespie and Salome. Sure, they won't get you a number one or two starter, but those two would likely net you a pretty nice pitcher. I think you underestimate what two B/B+ prospects close to the majors could bring in.

 

If we're just concerned with being WC contenders then we can waste money on FA pitchers and the like... the team will always be above average but never great. That's a simple way to build a team, one move at a time, like checkers, looking for that king, the post season. If your ultimate goal is a WS championship then it requires a solid long term plan with a rotation that is WS worthy, and the hardest thing to do in baseball is build a rotation from scratch.

It doesn't really take more to build a World Series contender than a wildcard contender. An above average team with a little luck can easily beat a great team in the playoffs. The primary goal should be to just get to the playoffs in any way possible, because once you get there anything can happen. For the Brewers that will involve the wildcard anyway, since the Cubs are more than likely taking the division no matter what moves the Brewers make before the season starts.

[rluzinski]

Otherwise, for a team with deep pockets, e.g. Red Sox or Yankees, the "wins per dollar" is somewhat of a secondary consideration behind straight up "wins".

 

The Cameron deal was nixed because the Yankees wanted money in return, so money is clearly a consideration for every team, including the biggest spender of them all.

If that wasn't the case, teams would not be spending big money on free agents because (theoretically, given a totally efficient market) the players would not be outperforming their free-agent salaries.

 

The Yankees would have to may market value for Cameron AND give up a player with a positive value. That's paying above the going rate for wins.

The only players with trade value would be guys who have not yet hit free-agency. To wit, Manny Parra is almost certainly going to outperform his salary, but good luck trying to trade him straight up for Mark Teixeira, Johan Santana, or ARod--three players who are, arguably, less likely to be worth more than their salary.

 

There are plenty of players who are signed to a contract that don't match up with their projected output. Player projections change all the time. And I realize that certain players may be more valuable to some teams than others for various reasons (1 win is worth more to team A than team B, a player may represent a larger upgrade over the alternative for a team, etc...). Finally, MLB aren't buying cars. They are buying a finite resource, so things are certainly more complicated as a result.

 

Generally speaking, though, every team is trying to buy wins and every team has a certain budget. They are going to buy those wins as cheaply as possible. To buy cameron in a trade, they will have to pay an above market price. That doesn't make him untradable but it certainly limits Melvin's trade possibilities.

[endaround]

Except of course Cameron was worth $18.4m last year while Cabrera was worth $0 according to fangraphs.

[reillymcshane]

It doesn't really take more to build a World Series contender than a wildcard contender. An above average team with a little luck can easily beat a great team in the playoffs. The primary goal should be to just get to the playoffs in any way possible, because once you get there anything can happen.

Stevo, this is exactly right. It's not about the best record in baseball, it's about making the playoffs - at that point, it's a whole new ball game for every team.

 

Yes, you prefer not to take it down to the last day and burn out your guys, and give guys a chance to rest up. You prefer home field. But the key is to get to the playoffs, have your guys healthy and rested, have players in playing well. The Brewers went in the offs last year with overworked pitchers (CC for example), injuries (kapler, sheets), and some guys clearly struggling (Hart).

 

I still wonder what would have happened 26 years ago if Fingers had been healthy for the Brewers...oh well.

[rluzinski]

Except of course Cameron was worth $18.4m last year while Cabrera was worth $0 according to fangraphs.

 

Those are not projections, though. Cameron does not project to be as good as his 2008 numbers.

 

Offense:

2008: .243/.331/.477/.809

209' Marcel: .243/.328/.436/.765

 

Defense (UZR):

2008: 9.7 runs

3 year average: 2.7 runs (and he's getting old)

Offensively, he's basically projected to repeat his 2007 numbers, so using fangragh values:

 

10.1 offense +2.7 defense +16.9 replacement level +1.9 positional adjustment = 31.6 runs = 3.2 wins = $14.1 mil (using 2008 $/win)

 

That's about $ 4 mil higher than the projection I saw at insidethebook.com (IIRC). I'd be happy to call him $2 mil more valuable than his current salary.

 

Melky projects to be about 5 runs better offensively in 2009 but his defense is a big question mark. If he is even an average defender, he'd probably have a little positive value in 2009, making a straight up trade pretty even overall (Cabrera isn't a free agent for 3 years, correct?). It would probably make the Brewers a little worse in 2009, though.

 

Giving the Yankees any money in the trade makes it a worthless trade though, IMO.

[twobrewers]

The Brewers will say Prince Fielder is not available, but could they be overwhelmed with a package of young players? One AL talent evaluator said, "He makes a lot of sense for Boston. They need a big bat in the lineup, it would combat what the Yankees have done with Mark Teixeira. They could go to their Teixeira plan of moving [Kevin] Youkilis to third and trading Mike Lowell. In this type of package, you can start with Clay Buchholz and go from there."

Boston Globe


Please note: This is not an actual rumor, but an idea tossed out there in the Boston Globe. As I mentioned before, I would trade Hardy & Cameron for Buchholz & Ellsbury. That made me think - does JJ Hardy have more trade value that Prince Fielder?

[brewjihad]

Fangraphs total value (WAR) estimates, which include offensive runs from wOBA, defense from UZR and positional + replacement adjustments, give these numbers for Hardy and Fielder:

 

Hardy was worth 4.5 and 5.5 wins in 07 and 08.

 

Fielder was worth 5 and 3 wins in 07 and 08.

 

I'm guessing MLB GMs value Fielder higher, but I would value Hardy higher and the numbers agree with me. However, Hardy does have one less year of control, which would be a negative on his trade value.

[endaround]

The Brewers will say Prince Fielder is not available, but could they be overwhelmed with a package of young players? One AL talent evaluator said, "He makes a lot of sense for Boston. They need a big bat in the lineup, it would combat what the Yankees have done with Mark Teixeira. They could go to their Teixeira plan of moving [Kevin] Youkilis to third and trading Mike Lowell. In this type of package, you can start with Clay Buchholz and go from there."

Boston Globe

 

 

Please note: This is not an actual rumor, but an idea tossed out there in the Boston Globe. As I mentioned before, I would trade Hardy & Cameron for Buchholz & Ellsbury. That made me think - does JJ Hardy have more trade value that Prince Fielder?

 

That just makes little sense for Boston. Aside from having to give up major talent to get Fielder they then have to find a team to take on Lowell and his contract while at the same time dealing with Lowell's no trade clause.

[apirk]

It is all a moot point because as was stated, "Theo would laugh Doug off the phone" with the Hardy and Cameron or anyone else named for Ellsbury and Bucholz deal.

[DHonks]

I'd be willing to listen to the Red Sox. I still think Fielder is going the route of Gary Sheffield....little effort and unhappy in Milwaukee.

[Never Outhustled]

I'd be willing to listen to the Red Sox. I still think Fielder is going the route of Gary Sheffield....little effort and unhappy in Milwaukee.

I agree. As much as I really wanted an established pitcher for Fielder, we didn't have things fall into place for it to happen. LAA missing out on Sebathia and Johnson left them without a surplus of pitching to trade. Tampa struck early trading a starting pitcher when they dealt Edwin Jackson for Matt Joyce.

 

With Dunn available to replace Fielder, we're better of with Dunn and Bucholz+, than with Fielder. We could also some of Bostons prospects for Greinke.

 

However, Boston would have to play Fielder at 1B, so I doubt there interested. If the DH spot was open, I believe they then would be.

[tony2sweet]

If the Brewers did sign Dunn and trade Fielder to the Red Sox, could the Brewrs then flip the players from Boston that we receive? Maybe send Bucholz and one or two of our better prospects to the Padres for Peavy? If the Padres right now offered Peavy for Fielder we would probably do it, so why not this way? The end result would be Peavy for Fielder.

[Oldcity]

Depending on what the Brewers think of Bucholz, there's a very good chance he'd be more valuable to the Brewers than Peavy (that's factoring in cost, of course).

[Katuluu]

Cain has started 151 games in RF and 88 in CF during his minor league career.

 

I believe he does project as a CF, but the fact that he hasn't spent more time in CF is a concern. (I believe he usually played RF because of Brantley and Ford)

Cain always played CF with Brantley as he had better range and a better arm. He played RF with Ford because they had similar range and he had a far superior arm. Cain is regarded as a CF prospect, but the organization thinks as he matures he might end up being better placed as a RF and it isn't because of any defensive inadequacies.

[MNBrew]

I like the deal proposed elsewhere a day or so ago:

 

Cameron & Suppan for Swisher & Igawa

Fielder for Buchholz & Ellsbury

re-sign Sheets

[twobrewers]

Cain is regarded as a CF prospect, but the organization thinks as he matures he might end up being better placed as a RF and it isn't because of any defensive inadequacies.

Like I said, I knew he was considered a good defender - I was just bothered that he was losing development time as a CF to Darren Ford. BA actually just had Cain listed as the Brewers "Best Defensive Outfielder".