JJ Hardy & Cameron to Red Sox proposal.

[Oldcity]

Buchholz threw a freakin no hitter.

 

So did Anibal Sanchez. Until Bucholz has sustained MLB success, I fail to see how he's more valuable than Hardy.

[twobrewers]

I actually think Hardy is the best player in the trade. I just think the contract/control situation on Ellsbury and Buchholz makes up the difference. (And then some)

 

There is no way I'd trade Hardy for Ellsbury, especially after Ellsbury had such a skid in the 2nd half when they stopped throwing him strikes and he failed to adjust.

So you liked Ellsbury when he put up a .720 OPS before the all-star game, but not when he put up a .741 OPS after the all star game? His June and July were pretty rough. But he had a good August and a great September.

[twobrewers]

So did Anibal Sanchez.

I know. He threw a no hitter in 2006 enroute to a 2.83 ERA in his rookie year.

 

He then pitched 30 innings in 2007 and 51.2 innings in 2008 thanks to injury. (Tear in his labrum)

 

So yes, two years ago I would have been very interested in Anibal Sanchez.

[TheCrew07]

You missed what is the most likely:

 

1B Fielder, 2B Weeks, SS Hardy, 3B Gamel with Escobar still is AAA after seriously struggling with his bat in 2009

How is that the most likely scenario? Posting the same thing about Escobar over and over doesn't make it any more true than the first time it was posted.

[Ennder]

So you liked Ellsbury when he put up a .720 OPS before the all-star game, but not when he put up a .741 OPS after the all star game? His June and July were pretty rough. But he had a good August and a great September.

 

I liked that he walked 10% of the time in the first half compared to the 4% in the second half. He also got the ball up in the air more in the first half, if he keeps that second GB rate of 55% it is going to be hard for him to be more than a slap hitter.. His second half was BABIP inflated compared to the first half which drove most of that OPS.

[Katuluu]

3) Lo Cain is really a LF and the organization is not viewing him as a future CF

Umm ... Cain is considered the Brewers best defensive outfielder in the minors and is viewed as a true CF. Are you sure you aren't thinking of Brantley?

[twobrewers]

Cain is considered the Brewers best defensive outfielder in the minors and is viewed as a true CF. Are you sure you aren't thinking of Brantley?

Cain has started 151 games in RF and 88 in CF during his minor league career.

 

I believe he does project as a CF, but the fact that he hasn't spent more time in CF is a concern. (I believe he usually played RF because of Brantley and Ford)

[Never Outhustled]

Jacoby Ellsbury is a stud in the making and the Crew would be foolish not to want him in CF. Some experts say he will be as good as Sizemore in CLE.

 

 

As 24 year olds, Sizemore had an 852 OPS, Ellsbury a 729 OPS. They don't compare. In Sizemore's first full season he was 2 years younger than Ellsbury was last year and yet he still put up a 832 OPS. The hype around Ellsbury is strong, but the evidence is weak.

[Oldcity]

The Red Sox could easily extend Hardy right away, so I don't think the contract situations are as big a deal to them as to many other teams. Point is, Hardy and Cameron are proven and you know what you'll get from them. Ellsbury and Bucholz hold most, if not all of their value in potential rather than what they've done in the major leagues. I'm not saying this hypothetical trade is hugely in Boston's favor, but I just thought the "laughed off the phone" comment was a huge stretch. Personally, I'm not even sure I'd want the Brewers to trade Hardy and Cameron for Ellsbury and Bucholz right now.

[cwolf2012]

We need an SP worse than anything right now. We also need a CF for the future.

 

If we could get one of the top pitching prospects in the game + a young, viable CF for what would cost maybe 400k a piece next year, instead of 14 million for a 35 year old and an SS who is very good, but is replaceable from within the system, we damn well better take it.

 

Gallardo, Parra, Jeffress, Buchholz through 2010-2013 has a chance be the best top 4 in the game.

[endaround]

The Brewers have CFer for the future in Cain. Bucholz only pitched 130 innings last season so he's not ready to go full time at 24 next season. I think people seriously underrate how much Hardy can bring in trade. He'd instantly be the best SS in the AL.

[rpmeehan]

I think people seriously underrate how much Hardy can bring in trade. He'd instantly be the best SS in the AL.

That's an excellent point. In the AL, only Jeter or Michael Young could claim to be a better offensive weapon, and when you eliminate Jeter because of his horrid defense, Hardy and Young stand head and shoulders above the other shortstops in the league.

 

I personally hope they choose to keep him, because he's one of the few hitters on our team that seems to put together quality ABs and demonstrates a willingness to go to the opposite field. He can be a bit streaky, but which one of our hitters isn't? I think Gamel's minor league defensive stats show that he might be better suited to 1B at the big league level, and I think a long-term infield makeup of Gamel (1B), Escobar (SS), Hardy (3B), and Weeks/Free Agent (2B) is probably the most realistic. Of course, to keep JJ Hardy through free agency will probably cost in the $10-12 mil per year range.

[cwolf2012]

I know this has been repeated ad nauseum, but Hardy is not going to move to 3rd base. His bat is top 5 at SS, and mediocre at 3B. He has no incentive to play 3rd.

[rluzinski]

The Red Sox could easily extend Hardy right away, so I don't think the contract situations are as big a deal to them as to many other teams.

 

If they extend Hardy, they'll have to pay him market value. He's worth a lot in a trade because his projected performance is worth significantly more than what he's going to get paid over the next 2 two years. We are talking maybe $30 mil more. In contrast, Cameron is going to get paid about what he's projected to be worth. If he's going to be traded for someone, it may be for a marginal prospect or a player getting paid what he's worth as well.

[rousieboy]

I would trade Hardy and Cameron for Ellsbury, Lowrie (who would move to 2b next year), and Bard...and I really like JJ...but I'd do it and then go out and sign Looper AND Sheets...as Ben has proven he needs to be handcuffed.

 

Rouse

[brewerguy71]

Hardy/Cameron for Ellsbury/Lowrie and Bard is a nice deal too, except the Brewers wouldnt have a need for Lowrie. I think the original deal involving Hardy for Buchholz/Ellsbury is a very good offer, more so for the Brewers than Sox. The Red Sox dont have too much to offer in the way of equal value though for Cameron in that deal. Maybe Sean Casey or Julio Lugo, nice backups at the very best.

 

I wholeheartedly disagree with the posters though, that say that Hardy is the best player in the deal. Its all about future value. Both Ellsbury and Buchholz have much higher future value than what Hardy has now (at his ceiling).

 

I would do the deal in a second. No time better than right now, this offseason to deal Hardy and get maximum return. Team needs a leadoff hitter and speed and they need a young pitcher or two with upside potential.

[Ennder]

Lowrie can play SS and 3B, I'd say we have a need for him. Escobar shouldn't sniff the majors this year most likely so he'd play SS this year and then we finally dump Hall next year and Lowrie takes over.

[Robideaux]

rluzinski[/b]]In contrast, Cameron is going to get paid about what he's projected to be worth. If he's going to be traded for someone, it may be for a marginal prospect or a player getting paid what he's worth as well.

I'm not saying that Cameron's value is higher than you say, but I'm not sure if I completely agree with the logic behind the reasoning. Theoretically, the value differential between the player's salary and his"projected worth" would only really matter given a salary cap (self-imposed or otherwise). Otherwise, for a team with deep pockets, e.g. Red Sox or Yankees, the "wins per dollar" is somewhat of a secondary consideration behind straight up "wins".

 

If that wasn't the case, teams would not be spending big money on free agents because (theoretically, given a totally efficient market) the players would not be outperforming their free-agent salaries. I apologize if I am misunderstanding the implications of your statement, but it seems that, using your logic, the only players with trade value would be guys who have not yet hit free-agency. To wit, Manny Parra is almost certainly going to outperform his salary, but good luck trying to trade him straight up for Mark Teixeira, Johan Santana, or ARod--three players who are, arguably, less likely to be worth more than their salary.

[Oldcity]

I wholeheartedly disagree with the posters though, that say that Hardy is the best player in the deal. Its all about future value. Both Ellsbury and Buchholz have much higher future value than what Hardy has now (at his ceiling).

I don't see how you don't think Hardy is the best player in the deal. As stated, Hardy would be the best shortstop in the AL.

I would do the deal in a second. No time better than right now, this offseason to deal Hardy and get maximum return. Team needs a leadoff hitter and speed and they need a young pitcher or two with upside potential.

They may need a leadoff hitter, but the player they have hitting there now was a better leadoff hitter than Ellsbury last year. Where does the need for team speed come from? Weeks, Cameron, Hart, Braun all have good speed. Finally, I don't think the Brewers necessarily need a young pitcher with upside as much as they need a productive pitcher--not that it couldn't be the same player.

 

I don't see the reasoning for trading Hardy right now. They don't have a viable replacement who is MLB ready. Escobar's bat is not ready to be a full time MLB starter. This proposal would result in a huge downgrade at short, and probably a wash in center (although Cameron was better than Ellsbury last season). They'd gain a promising pitcher in Bucholz, but who knows if he'll be good next year or not at the Major League level? Why not just keep Cameron and Hardy, sign a proven pitcher and let Escobar play a full season in AAA?

[brewerguy71]

I would put him in the top 5 but I wouldnt say he would be the best SS in the AL. I think that that honor would have to go to Jhonny Peralta or Michael Young. Orlando Cabrera is much better defensively as well.

 

I'm all for keeping Hardy until Escobar is ready. The problem with that though is that by keeping Hardy and passing on a viable #2 starter, you make the 2009 Brewers a .500 team. The other problem is that Hardy doesnt ever get more valuable than he is right now.

 

I would much rather have a sub .500 team this year and trade Hardy for two young pieces (such as an Ellsbury and Buchholz) that help the team be even better than they were last year.

[endaround]

Young is neither a good hitter or a good fielder. Peralta is a good hitter but a bad fielder.

[Oldcity]

If the Brewers are able to acquire a solid starter without losing anything from the MLB team, they will have a good shot at the playoffs again this season. I don't see the need to automatically chalk '09 up as a rebuilding year.

[Ennder]

Using fangraphs as an unbiased 3rd party (one that has all the info in one place and is easy to use at that!)

 

Hardy was worth $25M last yaer, Jeter was tops in the AL at $15.9M and Cabrera was 3rd at $15.6M.

 

Fielding stats had Jeter as a negative last year but much better than in previous years.

 

In 2007 values Hardy beat out all the AL SS's as well coming in at $18.5M with Bartlett and Guillen beating out Jeter.

 

Young is pretty terrible defensively and isn't as good a hitter as Jeter so he doesn't really come into play.

 

Hardy most likely would be the best SS in the AL if he were traded there, hard to say how much the league factor would hurt his hitting though.

[BrewCrewForever]

The only SS in MLB better then Hardy are Ramirez, Rollins and Reyes. That is it.

[brewerguy71]

Rockie and Diamondback fans might disagree with Hardy being rated above their guys, and they would be right. Not to mention Astro or Braves fans.

 

Shortstop is a defense first position. To say that a guy who's defense is lackluster, let alone average at shortstop is being completely unfair to the good shortstops of the league, bat or no bat. Hardy has the range of a 2B, he has range to be a good 2B, his bat and defensive ability would make would make him one of the best second basemen in the league.

 

I am not blaming Hardy for being a Shortstop. Hardy has a good bat, but he is far from one of the best shortstops in the game. The reasoning being used to say this would have allowed Ryan Braun to be rated as one of the best 3rd basemen in 2007. The problem with my argument is that the problem with his defense is not blatant. You tend not to notice a guys misgivings if he catches the balls hit to him and has a nice arm.

 

Good shortstops have great range and great arms, if he has a bat too that is icing on the cake. You dont start with the offense and work your way backward with a shortstop.