JJ Hardy & Cameron to Red Sox proposal.

[Milltownhooker]

JJ Hardy, Mike Cameron for Jacob Ellsbury, Clay Buchholz, & Manny Declarmen.

or

JJ Hardy, Cameron for Ellsbury, Buchholz, Declarmen, Lugo + 6 million over 2 yrs.

[RyDogg66]

I think the Brewers would be doing well to get one of those guys for Hardy and Cameron.

[BrewCrewForever]

I'd rather hang onto Hardy.

[MNBrew]

I think the Brewers would be doing well to get one of those guys for Hardy and Cameron.

I think Cameron's worth at least the same as each of those guys except maybe Buchholz. Hardy's a top SS, which should net Buchholz plus any other of those players.

 

A different Boston slant would be to trade Fielder for Ellsbury & Buchholz, plus Lowell gets included if the Brewers add Bill Hall.

 

(I still think I'd rather see what the Brewers could get for Fielder from Seattle (tons of strong young pitching) or the Angels (Santana/Saunders, maybe both, plus something more).

[twobrewers]

Jacob Ellsbury, Clay Buchholz

Ellsbury and Buchholz are dream players for me. They are both the exact type of player the Brewers need. No way would they include Declarmen too. You would be really lucky to get them to even consider Ellsbury & Buchholz.

 

Cameron's worth at least the same as each of those guys except maybe Buchholz.

Maybe production wise. But taking into account age/salary/contract Ellbury is about 5 times better than Cameron. However, Hardy is better than any of them.

[brewerguy71]

Ellsbury has the most upside of them all, and when dealing players of his caliber that is whats most important. Hardy could probably fetch Ellsbury and Delcarmen and the Sox would then move him to 3rd. Cameron couldnt bring Buchholz though, Brewers would probably have to throw in a prospect to even out such a large salary dump.

Sox wont give up on Ellsbury any time soon though, he is the epitome of what they are trying to do as an organization. Great young player, multiple tools, lots of upside, and very cheap. If anything, when it comes to dealing young players, they would only get rid of guys who are on the cusp of major league ready to get major pieces for a playoff drive.

They dont really need a guy like Hardy or Cameron so this doesnt really work for them. Make it Fielder for those 3 guys and its a great trade for the Sox and Brewers.

[twobrewers]

They dont really need a guy like Hardy or Cameron so this doesnt really work for them. Make it Fielder for those 3 guys and its a great trade for the Sox and Brewers.

Man, you had me until this last paragraph.

 

The Red Sox just tried to trade for Hanley Ramirez. A SS. They currently have Jed Lowrie as SS. Granted, the Red Sox really like Lowrie - but Hardy is at least twice the player.

Cameron would be a great fit for them if they included Ellsbury in any trade. (And that was the premise of the thread)

They currently have a great 1B in Youkilis. He could move to 3B and open a hole at first. But that still ignores that fact that Boston's top prospect is Lars Anderson - a 1B

 

[MNBrew]

They currently have a great 1B in Youkilis. He could move to 3B and open a hole at first. But that still ignores that fact that Boston's top prospect is Lars Anderson - a 1B

They talk about Youkilis to 3B because that's what he came up as. Now they have Lowell there. But landing Big Tex or another stronger 1B would allow them to move Youkilis BACK to 3B.

 

A different trade I wouldn't mind happening is Bill Hall for Mike Lowell IF Lowell's healthy. Boston would need to throw in a respectable pitcher to offset the salary dumped on the Brewers. Then again, Lowell's older with an injury history and Hall just had Lasik, so maybe that deal's better left undone, too.

 

I just don't see enough good reason to trade Hardy this winter. I'm not convinced yet Escobar will be the future SS, although I'd sure love to see it. I'd prefer to keep the SS depth for now, eventually move Hardy to 3B, and, if need be, trade Fielder for serious (pitching!) talent.

[nate82]

Prince doesn't make sense for the Red Sox unless the Red Sox are seeing problems with Ortiz. Thats the only way the Red Sox would trade for Fielder I still believe the Angels are the best match for a trade. Fielder just seems to be someone the Angels would want to play DH for them Morales would be the Angels everyday 1B with Prince getting a start here and there.

 

Back on topic now. Hardy makes some sense for the Red Sox though. The Red Sox were suposably going to make Ramirez into a CF. I wouldn't trade Hardy for Buchholz and Ellsbury though. I don't trust Buchholz and I believe he is nothing more than hype like Hughes and Kennedy. Those three are good pitchers but nothing I would trade Hardy for in a main deal. If the Brewers are not able to sign Hardy or Fielder this year to a long term deal I would look at trading one of them sometime this year. I like Ellsbury in the deal though I'm not sure who else the Brewers could get with Ellsbury in the deal and I believe Cain maybe a better option than Ellsbury anyways.

[Milltownhooker]

Buchholz lost some luster after his control meltdown last year. Ellsbury had an average year & didn't breakout as a star performer. I feel Hardy is > Ellsbury or Buchholz. Grabbing one of them for an All-Star SS doesn't make sense. Adding Declarmen in either scenario is wishful thinking after looking at his last two years, but the trade creates a hole at SS asking for more is reasonable.

[cwolf2012]

I would take Ellsbury+Buchholz for Hardy+Cameron in an instant. If the Brewers offered this, Epstein would laugh Melvin off the phone.

[JohnBriggs12]

"Prince doesn't make sense for the Red Sox"

 

nate82, the Red Sox just offered Texiera $168 million and he plays the same position as Prince.

 

Personally, I wouldn't trade Hardy for Ellsbury and Bucholz. Ellsbury is a fine defensive player but he's not that special offensively. His minor league numbers were good, not great, and his OBP of .336 in 08 is just not that impressive. Bucholz doesn't do it for me. The Sox seem anxious to move him and that's a red flag. Maybe if it Masterson were substituted for Bucholz, I might bite. Adding Cameron to the deal probably hurts the return more than it helps. Cameron for $10 million has little trade value as Melvin has found out.

 

The only deal I'd do for Prince with the Red Sox would be straight up for Dice K.

[Never Outhustled]

nate82, the Red Sox just offered Texiera $168 million and he plays the same position as Prince.

Thats not true. Prince is a DH, and Texiera is a gold glove 1B.

 

 

As for Ellsbury, I can't believe how overhyped he is. He had a 336 OBA and a 729 OPS last year. Weeks was a better leadoffman, and Cameron is a better CF.

 

This deal would destroy the Brewers team OPS. I'd have an interest in Bucholz, but I'd don't know if I'd even do Hart for Bucholz.

 

Bucholz had a 6.75 ERA last year and was then sent to AAA, and Ellsbury was worth 3.5 wins. Hardy and Cameron were worth 9.6 wins last year. Cameron might regress, but Hardy is poised for an even better year.

 

The Brewers have a CF prospect in Cain who is just as toolsy as Ellsbury, and should have no problem putting up the same numbers as Ellsbury (298/354/380/735) did in AAA at the same age. Ellsbury has been a much better defender in CF, but Cain has the ability and work ethic to improve.

[twobrewers]

I can't believe how many posts completely ignore age/contract/control factors.

Ellsbury lost some luster last year. He is still a good CF. He is young. He bats LH. He is a lead-off hitter. And he would be under our control for years.

Buchholz threw a freakin no hitter. A young pitcher struggling?! Unheard of! I'll gladly take that hype. Worse case scenario Buchholz becomes a cheap back of the rotation pitcher. His ceiling is still 1/2 type pitcher.

And this is completely ignoring that fact that both players would move from the AL East to the NL Central. That is quite the talent jump.

Cameron is paid a ton and only a one year player. Hardy is great. I love Hardy - but we have a replacement in the wings. (Presumably) And Hardy is about to make a lot of money. (As a free agent, he might command $15M a year)

This trade would make the Brewers a little worse in 2009 - and much better in 2010.

If the Brewers offered this, Epstein would laugh Melvin off the phone.

Yes. Yes he would.

[Never Outhustled]

This trade would make the Brewers a little worse in 2009

No, I think its alot worse. Hardy will be about 4 wins better than Escobar in 2009, and Cameron could regress and still be better than Ellsbury. Bucholz is impossible to predict, as he is talented but was bad last year. The Brewers need starting pitcher, but we already have 5. I'd be more into aquiring Bucholz if we still needed a #5.

I can't believe how many posts completely ignore age/contract/control factors.

They're not, they are just aware that we have prospects. Why control Ellsbury for 5 years when we have Cain? Ellsbury is not a huge ceiling player like you describe him. He hit a grand total of 10 homers in the minors despite being a college player.

 

He is a lead-off hitter.

Just not a good one. He had a 336 OBA last year, and a 338 OBA in AAA. He was good at drawing wlks in A ball, as you would expect from a college hitter, but hasn't been anything special at that skill since hitting AA. He likely won't walk much because of his lack of power.

 

Worse case scenario Buchholz becomes a cheap back of the rotation pitcher.

No, worse case scenarios include continuing to have the control problems that lead to last years 6.75 ERA, or getting hurt, a fairly common thing for pitchers his age.

 

and much better in 2010.

Ellsbury will likely be a little better than Cain in 2010, but Hardy will still be alot better than Escobar in 2010, so you need Bucholz just to break even. Maybe Bucholz fullfills his potential and becomes a stud. But you still gave away 2009. Thats unnecessary.

[twobrewers]

He hit a grand total of 10 homers in the minors despite being a college player.

And he hit 9 HR as a 25 year old in the AL East. He will never slug 25. But I think his peak will likely be around 15 - which is pretty good for a lead off hitter.

 

He had a 336 OBA last year, and a 338 OBA in AAA.

And a .394 with Boston in 2007. Bill James has him at a .359 OBP in 2009. Marcels has him at a .348 OBP in 2009.

 

Why control Ellsbury for 5 years when we have Cain?

Ellsbury bats LH. Cain still has a significant amount of development. I like him a lot - but would not count him as a sure thing. And in actuality, Cain has played a pretty limited amount of CF.

 

No, worse case scenarios include continuing to have the control problems that lead to last years 6.75 ERA, or getting hurt, a fairly common thing for pitchers his age.

Or the 23 year old pitcher who posted a 2.47 ERA in 2008 while pitching in AAA? Injuries can happen to anyone (including JJ Hardy), so that point is kinda moot.

[Never Outhustled]

Injuries can happen to anyone (including JJ Hardy), so that point is kinda moot.

 

Are you saying injuries to under 25 pitchers are not more common than injuries to other players? I think theres a wealth of research thats disputes that.

[twobrewers]

Sure - but JJ Hardy has a bigger injury history than Buchholz.

[Weirdos19]

I'm still on the bandwagon that we move Hardy to second or third when Escobar comes up. Here are our 2010 options:

 

1. Fielder 1B, Weeks 2B, Escobar SS, Gamel 3B with Hardy traded

 

2. Gamel/Nelson 1B, Weeks 2B, Escobar SS, Hardy 3B with Fielder traded

 

3. Fielder 1B, Hardy 2B, Escobar SS, Gamel/Hall 3B with Weeks traded

 

4. Gamel 1B, Weeks 2B, Escobar SS, Hall 3B -If this option were to happen, a replacement for any of these guys could come in trades for Hardy and Fielder.

 

There are many other options than this, I know. But, I like #3 the most, unless we get a great haul back in #2.

 

 

Also, doesn't anyone think that Lars Anderson could be moved if the Sox acquired Fielder?? Or maybe by the time Anderson is ready, Ortiz is ready to hang em up??

 

I seem to be rambling here, but Fielder and Escobar for Bucholz, Delcarmen, and Ellsbury would be what I would offer. Hart or Gamel can play first with Hardy staying at short.

[endaround]

You missed what is the most likely:

 

1B Fielder, 2B Weeks, SS Hardy, 3B Gamel with Escobar still is AAA after seriously struggling with his bat in 2009

[Mike]

1) Jacoby Ellsbury is a stud in the making and the Crew would be foolish not to want him in CF. Some experts say he will be as good as Sizemore in CLE.

2) Solves your CF problem after 2009 when Cameron leaves.

3) Lo Cain is really a LF and the organization is not viewing him as a future CF

4) It is all a moot point because as was stated, "Theo would laugh Doug off the phone" with the Hardy and Cameron or anyone else named for Ellsbury and Bucholz deal.

 

[Oldcity]

Why again would Melvin be laughed off the phone? Hardy is the best player in the deal, and neither Ellsbury nor Bucholz have had sustained MLB success. Sure they're both young, but so are a lot of guys.

[sheetskout]

Why again would Melvin be laughed off the phone? Hardy is the best player in the deal, and neither Ellsbury nor Bucholz have had sustained MLB success. Sure they're both young, but so are a lot of guys.

Because Bucholz is a projected number one or two starter, something that is gold in professional baseball. I also agree that Hardy and Cameron may not be enough to get one of the two let alone both. Ellsbury had arguably as good a season as Hardy in 08' and has settled into an everyday role. We also, most likely, have not seen either Ellsbury or Buchholz's ceiling yet. As much as I like J.J., we probably have seen the best of what he can do......

[Never Outhustled]

Ellsbury had arguably as good a season as Hardy in 08' and has settled into an everyday role.

According to fangraphs, Hardy was worth $10 million more tha Ellsbury last year. Hardy is only a year older than Ellsbury. Hardy is far more valuable.

[Ennder]

There is no way I'd trade Hardy for Ellsbury, especially after Ellsbury had such a skid in the 2nd half when they stopped throwing him strikes and he failed to adjust. Buchholz is kind of a hard person to gauge so not sure what his trade value is. Cameron has 1 year left and his contract is probably pretty close to his real value so I doubt he has a ton of value unless a team needs a one year guy to push them into the playoffs.