Angels sign Fuentes - 2 years/$17.5 mil

[Never Outhustled]

So that leaves a combination of Coffey, Julio, Dillard, Swindle, and DiFelice that needs to outperform the '08 versions of Gagne, Mota, and Turnbow. It doesn't appear to be a stretch saying that the bullpen is improved.

I've seen a few people post this, which leads me to one obvious question. If CV replaces Torres, who replaces CV? CV threw 59 bullpen innings with a 2.12 ERA. Based on that, I think its a major stretch to say the bullpen is improved.

 

IIRC, the Brewers gave up their first when they signed Damian Miller a few years back so the argument can be made that Melvin will sign a Type A when the situation is right.. The did nab Gallardo in the 2nd in that draft.

We gave up 2nd rounders to get Jose Hernandez, Damian Miller, and Jeff Suppan. The year we signed Miller we drafted Ryan Braun in the 1st round.

[BADGERJOBOB]

Please explain to me how anyone can think this bullpen is in good shape when Villy is the only guy you can reasonably count on and even he is far from a sure thing.

 

For starters, the bullpen is the same if not better than last season... but omg I know, no one knows any names from the 'pen. Honestly, what's the big deal? Dillard/Stetter/Villy/McClung/DiFelice/Riske is a really great set of bullpen options.

Half of the bullpen you mentioned has less than 31 innings of MLB experience. Another has a history of walking a ton of batters. None have MLB closer experience. And you feel comfortable with this group??? Sorry I am not drinking the kool-aid if you think this club can make a legit claim to contend for a playoff spot. We sure seem to be banking on a lot of best case scenarios this year for a playoff run.

 

Villy becoming a good closer when he has no experience.

McClung getting over his propensity of wildness

Yo being able to pitch like an ace for an entire year

Parra stepping up as a solid number 2

Suppan getting better instead of worse when he is clearly on the downside of his career

Stetter, DiFilice and Dillard pitching above average in the MLB when they have a combined 64 innings pitched with varied success

No legit depth, starting or relief core, when injuries hit

Julio having a year like last year than having a year like he had in 3 out of 4 from 04-07.

 

And thats just pitching. The hitting and defense actually have bigger issues, question marks and prayers for high hope.

 

This team had a legit chance of making this bullpen a whole lot better where we could have entered the season with a few less question marks and again this off-season it failed miserably. At this point in time, Melvin should be making moves that will help us for 2010-2011 and not worry about 2009 because we are so far behind a lot of other teams that are way better than us. I.e. Fielder needs to be traded now, Gamel needs to be moved to the outfield or firstbase and Escobar should probably be brought up this year. We should not spend a lot of money on a throw away pitcher like Looper. A year of pain this year will be a year of gain next year.

[twobrewers]

We sure seem to be banking on a lot of best case scenarios this year for a playoff run.

Melvin is a pretty big believer that relievers alternate good and bad years. (Torres was coming off a bad year - and had a good year. Etc) Melvin does not like to overpay for relief pitchers coming off very good years. So the lack of movement in that area is not surprising.

 

So that leaves a combination of Coffey, Julio, Dillard, Swindle, and DiFelice that needs to outperform the '08 versions of Gagne, Mota, and Turnbow. It doesn't appear to be a stretch saying that the bullpen is improved.

Well said. But I think Stetter > Shouse is a bit of a reach. And I am a big Stetter fan. Shouse has always been very good for Milwaukee.

At this point in time, Melvin should be making moves that will help us for 2010-2011 and not worry about 2009 because we are so far behind a lot of other teams that are way better than us.

I am not sure what you are upset about then. I think that Brewers have taken that attitude to some extent. They certainly haven't done anything to jepordize the 2010 season thus far. (Handing out bad contracts)

 

I would imagine the Brewers are going to see if they can tread water this year. They can wait and see how the MLB team plays. Wait and see how a few prospects grow. (Salome/Lucroy/Lawrie in particular) And if the Brewers are in the race they can make trades during the season to improve the MLB club.

[cwolf2012]

I can't believe no one talks about how DiFelice will be a legitimate reliever next year. The guy doesn't walk ANYONE and has had decent success when finally brought up to the Majors. I will be extremely disappointed in the team if they don't use this guy next year.

 

Here's my bullpen analysis:

 

Torres was not as good as people think. Honestly, I'm not sure how he ended up with such a low ERA (still only 3.49) considering his K and BB rates. He had a 1.35 WHIP, which is not all that impressive either. I personally think DiFelice will be close to his production level this season if he continues on the trends of the last couple seasons.

 

CV is our best reliever right now, and it would kill me to see him be the closer. A guy like that is way too good to be stuck in a closer role.

 

Riske can't be any worse this season than last season.

 

McClung will probably be a little below his level last year, but there certainly is upside to him. If he doesn't overthrow, he could fill any role we need him to in the pitching staff.

 

Shouse is a loss. I think he's a better LOOGY option than Stetter, simply because while Stetter has better stuff, he's also going to walk people. If your job is one guy and one guy only, you don't walk to be walking him. I also see Stetter as better against RH hitting than Shouse, but that's probably unfounded.

 

Coffey/Julio: These guys could definitely be as good as Mota and Gagne. While Mota and Gagne had good 2nd halves, they were not as good as they seem. I see Gagne's 2nd half as regression to the mean. He had horrid luck in the first half to go with not very good stuff, and then he had slightly improved stuff in the 2nd half to go with much better luck. Mota is pretty much the same story.

 

Eduardo Morlan: I honestly could see this guy contributing this season. He's been effective to great at every level he's pitched at, and he definitely should get a chance to show what he can do.

 

As far as roles go, if we can sign another SP, McClung fits best into a closer role of all our options. He should definitely function better coming in with no one on than with inherited runners.

 

CV should be in for the highest leverage situations, with Stetter making appearances against LH hitters.

 

Set up (I hate typing these terms) should be Riske or Julio.

 

If Macha knows how to utilize the talents he has, this bullpen will be just fine. One more good LHP to bolster the BP would help, but it shouldn't be even a consideration until we sign another SP.

[fleehaw]

I think Stetter > Shouse is a bit of a reach. And I am a big Stetter fan. Shouse has always been very good for Milwaukee.

Shouse was very effective when used properly, however, he faced way too many righties in '08 for my taste. IMO, Stetter should be better b/c he's more than just a loogy. I thought it was very telling when it was Stetter instead of Shouse in some high leverage situations at the end of the year.

[fleehaw]

I've seen a few people post this, which leads me to one obvious question. If CV replaces Torres, who replaces CV? CV threw 59 bullpen innings with a 2.12 ERA. Based on that, I think its a major stretch to say the bullpen is improved.

Let me rephrase then. Outside of Torres, Shouse, Stetter, Riske, and McClung, the '08 bullpen pitched 229 innings and gave up 105 earned runs. This results in a 4.13 ERA. So that leaves a combination of Coffey, Julio, Dillard, Swindle, and DiFelice that needs to post a collective ERA better than 4.13 ERA. That certainly seems plausible. Granted, this doesn't take into account more important statistical measures for a reliever, such as % of inherited runners scored, so take it for what it's worth.

[twobrewers]

Stetter should be better b/c he's more than just a loogy.

But he walks a lot more batters than Shouse.

 

Shouse BB/9 = 2.45

Stetter BB/9 = 6.75

 

Stetter has better stuff - but also can leave a mess for someone to clean up. The reason Shouse got hit more often was that he could throw strikes.

[fleehaw]

Poor choice of words on my part. How about this? I like Stetter more b/c I see him as being a more versatile pitcher.

 

I have nothing against Shouse. I thought he was a fine pitcher, just that sometimes, IMO, he was mismanaged.

[TooLiveBrew]

Half of the bullpen you mentioned has less than 31 innings of MLB experience.

 

Who cares? All that means is you don't know their names, which seems to make you quite uncomfortable. We have several good bullpen arms, who I already listed. Cwolf made a great post, so I won't bother repeating.

 

One thing that's being left out is that Riske's production was hampered by his injury, so it's not a very good indicator imo of what to expect.

 

 

And you feel comfortable with this group??

 

Yup.

[davego]

I'll agree with the poster that points out the pen might be better off if CV can be used in more then just the closer role. One more arm (IMO) would raise the comfort level (for me) but all in all, it is the depth of the rotation that worries me.

[brewcrewreview]

I told Seth McClung at the Brewer Playoff Celebration Party at Mike's Martini Bar that I would like to see him get a shot as the closer for next year. He told me that he heavily prefers being a starter over any kind of relief/closer role.

[cwolf2012]

I told Seth McClung at the Brewer Playoff Celebration Party at Mike's Martini Bar that I would like to see him get a shot as the closer for next year. He told me that he heavily prefers being a starter over any kind of relief/closer role.

That doesn't surprise me. He really seemed to relish the starting he did last year. I would also expect pretty much any pitcher would rather be a starter, but I think Seth fits a reliever role better for us during the season.

[TooLiveBrew]

I'm sure the dollars out there are much, much higher for a starter as compared to a reliever, so it's no surprise that's what he favors. I agree with the sentiment that Big Red profiles pretty well as a closer.

[endaround]

Based on what? His inability to throw strikes? McClung can't be counted on for much of anything.

[MJLiverock]

The Brewer pen was mediocre last year and has lost one of 2 reliable relievers in Torres. They also lost some guys that fall into the throw against the wall and see what sticks mode in Gagne and Mota and have replaced them with more of the same. I see no improvement made to replace Torres' innings nor addressing the idea that even more bullpen innings will be needed due to the loss of the only 2 starters who have proven the ability to go deep into ballgames.

 

So a mediocre pen loses one of the better relievers in the pen, will be relied on for more innings, and it is supposed to be improved?

[cwolf2012]

Based on what? His inability to throw strikes? McClung can't be counted on for much of anything.

I think this was in reference to myself and TooLiveBrew, and to that I say that he was far more effective last year than he's been in his career. I remember seeing a fangraphs chart about him, and when he was starting his release point was far more consistent when he wasn't trying to crank the ball. If the pitching coach is aware of stuff like that, then he should be able to get Seth to continue to pitch decent. If that's the case, then I could easily see him holding a 4 ERA as a reliever. Is that great? No, but it isn't awful.

[endaround]

As a 6th starter/long reliever McClung's fine, but outside of that you're asking for trouble. His bad command means consistently short outings when starting and also for baserunners if placed in high leverage situations leading to bad outcomes.

[BrewCrewForever]

Based on what? His inability to throw strikes? McClung can't be counted on for much of anything.

Say what you will, but I remember him being counted on quite a bit in games down the stretch. Specifically the Cubs game Torres blew in Chicago and then his awesome performance at Miller Park the Friday game during the last series. They counted on him then and he seemed to deliver to me.

[Ennder]

You are talking a pretty darn small sample of data. There is a chance that McClung figured something out down the stretch but there is as big or bigger of a chance that he just had a hot streak and will revert to the 5ish ERA pitcher he has been over his career.

 

I don't think you want to count on him for anything.

[fleehaw]

I'd hope that McClung is in the same boat as Coffey and Julio. Guys that have had a mixed bag of success and that need to prove themselves in spring training. While I think McClung has a very good chance (100% if they don't acquire another SP) at making the roster and currently has an inside track, I would certainly make him prove it and not make decisions (McClung as the closer) based on a couple great outings.

[LouisEly]

Riske was injured last season; I think you'll see him rebound to near his career numbers and be solid in the set-up role.

 

I think this is the biggest thing that was overlooked last year. Riske played hurt last year, as his numbers were well off his mean, and being healthy this year is going to be one of the biggest improvements in the bullpen.

[BrewCrewForever]

Yup, a healthy Riske could be a big part of the pen. He pitched well at the start of the season until he got hurt then he was quite bad.