Melvin has or had interest in Juan Cruz

[JohnBriggs12]

Melvin is quoted in Buster Olney's blog as saying "I had interest in Juan Cruz...because I thought we had extra first-round picks for CC and Sheets, I had considered a type A signing. Now I have to reconsider."

 

I love the idea of signing Cruz who sure has closer stuff, but Melvin has a great point. Now I suppose on how much of a value he considers Cruz to be. You don't want to overpay with both dollars and draft picks. If the dollars are reasonable, you could justify it though. Cruz at least makes you consider Villanueva as a potential starter again, negating the need to overpay for a guy like Looper.

[monty57]

Cruz would definitely help the team, but I thought he was asking for a huge contract. Of course he could have brought that down. Throw in the first rounder, and it becomes less appealing.

 

As far as Villy, Melivn has already said he's not going to be a starter. As it stands, McClung is the guy who's future (bullpen or rotation) is up in the air. It would be nice to see a "proven closer" signed that would keep Villy as the 8th inning / high leverage / multiple inning guy. However, after the Cameron deal fell through, I have the feeling that they're only going to be able to afford one good pitcher. I'd rather see a good starter brought in, putting McClung in the pen and sadding SP depth, than a good reliever brought in, leaving us with only five viable starting pitchers on our 40 man roster. Now, as to whether Looper is a "good starter" is an entirely different debate that I believe is going on at length in another thread.

[PilprinBuddha]

If Cruz isn't an impact pitcher, I think you walk away from him.

 

Now if sheets signs somewhere then maybe. COuld we make a deal with Texas for one of their pitchers to free up a spot for Sheets down there?

 

Could we see a scenario where Sheets has no options other than a one year deal with MKE? potentially for even less than arby $?

[JohnBriggs12]

Cruz has impact numbers. 159 K's in 112 2/3 innings over the past 2 seasons with just 79 hits allowed. That's impact. Walk totals are bit high, but this guy has stuff that is Marmol like.

[reillymcshane]

Cruz has impact potential. However, he's had some injuries, shown a tendency to walk a few too many guys, and been a bit inconsistent from year to year.

 

Like a deal with Looper or some other similar guys, I guess it all comes down to the deal you could get from him -- does he want $5 million? $8 million? I haven't heard numbers (or years).

 

His walk numbers scare me a bit, but he really can bring some heat. I've seen him dominate at times. Costing a 1st round pick isn't ideal, but again, you place that in the value of what it costs to sign him. You also have to consider the alternatives -- do the Crew feel that Carlos V or McClung or someone else can nail down the closer job? If so, giving up a 1st round pick is probably not in the cards. But if you really want someone to come in and fill that slot, you have to be willing to give something up.

 

Personally, i like the guy. I always felt he was a just a heartbeat away from getting everything together and being a great reliever. That's not a bad thing to take a chance on if you don't like your alternatives.

[danzig6767]

I'm not saying we have to sign Cruz, but i wouldn't sweat that much losing a first round pick if Melvin really liked a free agent. Even if we only end up getting say two second rounders for CC/Sheets, we also are getting to sandwich picks. So even if we lost our first rounder, we'd still have two picks at the end of the first round and three second round picks. That leaves plenty of potential to add valuable pieces to the farm system.

[JohnBriggs12]

"Cruz has impact potential."

 

Looper does not. I'd rather use my resources (including a draft pick here and there if needed) on guys with impact. The fact that teams are reluctant to part with a draft pick will keep the bidding down on a guy like Cruz.

[monty57]

John, I agree with what you're saying. My big worry is that the Brewers absoluetly need more starting pitching. Beyond Yo, Parra, Bush, Suppan and McClung, you're looking at the likes of DiFilice and Narveson. As the current rotation stands, when (not if) one of our starting pitchers goes down, we could be stuck with a very bad starter pitching every fifth day for a couple of months. If Capuano is going to be healthy and MLB ready, it eases that burden a lot, but I think that's a big if. Unless a trade happens, it looks like we'll only be able to pick up one pitcher's salary. In that case, I think Melvin has to look for another starting pitcher. That will at least give us insurance against one significant injury.

 

Now, if a Cameron trade goes through, we trade for a SP in an even money deal, or we're able to find money elsewhere, I'd love to see someone like Cruz at the back of the pen.

[RyDogg66]

Dont forget we will most likely get a sandwhich pick for Brian Shouse as well. So even if Sheets signs with someone like Texas we would be looking at 3 sandwhich picks and 3 second round picks.

[twobrewers]

3 sandwhich picks and 3 second round picks

I know we are all disappointed that the 1st round compensation picks are not looking very likely.

 

But JJ Hardy and Yovani Gallardo were both 2nd round picks. So, we have definitely gotten some great players from the second round.

[RockCoCougars]

I don't know what I'm more upset by- Melvin completely writing off resigning Sheets, or his seeming attempt to stockpile draft picks. I know this view isn't going to be popular here, but in my opinion, the MLB draft is basically a crap shoot. Guys like Braun, or even LaPorta (MLB ready in 2-3 years) are the exception, not the rule. Draft picks are nice, but I think it's foolhardy to stockpile them at the expense of the "big club". This isn't the NFL or the NBA. Lots of their recent high draft choices are going to get real expensive in the next 2-3 years, and will likely be gone. They need to win now.

[PeaveyFury]

I don't know what I'm more upset by- Melvin completely writing off resigning Sheets, or his seeming attempt to stockpile draft picks.

 

Just to be clear, you think he's not re-signing our free agents intentionally in order to take the draft picks instead?

[RockCoCougars]

Just to be clear, you think he's not re-signing our free agents intentionally in order to take the draft picks instead?

It really seems that way. Why would he comment about getting picks for Sheets, when he hasn't even signed anywhere yet? It also seems like he's basing decisions to go after free agents on whether or not they will "cost picks". Maybe he's just using the "hey, at least we got picks" silver lining to justify the inactivity this off season. I'm starting to wonder if I missed the part where this team is rebuilding.....maybe the ultimate goal of this management was to squeak into the playoffs as a wild card. I really hope I'm wrong here, because I think this team can compete with one more solid starter, a couple of arms for the bullpen and perhaps a lefty bat. It just doesn't seem like they are doing anything. Maybe they are keeping things close to the belt with negotiations, but I doubt it considering even their interest in a fairly low profile guy like Looper has made the news. We are one week from January, and it's really starting to look like a Selig/Bando off season.

[TooLiveBrew]

It really seems that way

 

In the case of Sabathia's free agency? Keeping that in consideration, you have exactly 2 FA claims here, one of whom signed for Monopoly-monacle-dude-money, and the other hasn't even signed yet. And since when is a lot of high draft picks for a smaller-market team a bad thing?

 

 

It also seems like he's basing decisions to go after free agents on whether or not they will "cost picks".

 

I hope he continues to weigh that criterion in pursuing FAs.

 

 

maybe the ultimate goal of this management was to squeak into the playoffs as a wild card.

 

I'm not even sure that you can take that part seriously

 

EDIT: I h8 Macs... stoopid 4matting

[Never Outhustled]

I know this view isn't going to be popular here, but in my opinion, the MLB draft is basically a crap shoot.

While I fully realize the MLB draft takes longer to make an impact, it is in no way a crapshoot. Roughly half of the All-Stars each year are 1st or 2nd round picks. Thats huge when you realize 1/4 of the All-Stars are international players not subject to the draft. That means the players drafted in rounds 3-50 plus undrafted FAs make up just 1/4 of the All-Star roster. The NFL draft is more of a crapshoot, mostly because teams consistently draft players of poor character in the early rounds.

 

Draft picks are nice, but I think it's foolhardy to stockpile them at the expense of the "big club". Lots of their recent high draft choices are going to get real expensive in the next 2-3 years, and will likely be gone. They need to win now.

I agree the goal is to win now, but the draftpicks are not who we will use to replace the players on the big club. Those players were members of the best prospect team in baseball this past season, the Brewers AA team. The draft picks will restock the low minors, while we use guys like Gamel, Escobar, Cain, Gillespie, and Salome as either future Brewers starters or trade chips, and we have another wave of starting caliber players in Jeffress, Green, Lucroy, and Brewer right behind them.

[PeaveyFury]

Roughly half of the All-Stars each year are 1st or 2nd round picks.

 

In addition to what X said, it should also be pointed out that the comp picks span from the 1st round through the 2nd, and that with the exception of the most recent drafts for obvious reasons, the Brewers had their 1st or 2nd round pick become a solid major leaguer in every draft since 2001.

[TheCrew07]

How exactly do the Brewers remain competitive year in and year out without a farm system that is producing quality MLB players? And this talk of another deadline deal doesn't make any sense... with what prospects? Who can we trade outside of Salome that we won't need and is at AA or above? If Hardy doesn't sign a deal there is no way the Brewers can afford to trade Escobar and Gamel is a huge upgrade offensively at 3B or over Hart, and would probably make a good 1B as well. Gillespie? He's a RH Gabe Gross with a pigeon arm, what's his trade value? I understand trading Hardy, but not Escobar when he's so inexpensive and will have to fill the hole at SS. Why would Hardy sign now that he's only 2 years from a huge payday? Hardy will get around 15 mill per if he has another season like the last 2, unless he doesn't care about the money, but when was the last time a player didn't take the money in MLB? It's too bad really, Hardy came up too soon and then lost more time with the horrible injury, it would be nice to have JJ for an extra year right now.

 

The only other SS option at this point in time is Brewer, and while Brewer is a 5 tool prospect, his defense is a liability and we already have too many players with his plate discpline on the roster. Brewer will likely start in AA, but he's still so raw it's hard to gage what kind of player he will be, his defense is Braunesque at a traditionally defensive first position. I could see Brewer moving to CF at some point, rather than sticking at SS. X will probably crucify me, but Brewer barely made my 20 prospect list for the farm system, because I still think he can go either way. He's a guy I'm intrigued by rather than a guy I'm excited about.

 

The only way the Brewers can realistically plug holes with quality (impact) players is through the farm system... I would think anyone that was holding out hope things were different would have learned from the last 2 off seasons.

 

Deadline deals for top prospects will cripple the franchise in the long run, the Brewers can only afford to make a deal every couple of years, the rest of prospects will be needed to plug holes. It's not like the Brewers have an entire team of quality players at each level, there are a couple of guys that can plug voids in the MLB roster and 1 who's doubled up with an MLB player with significant value.

 

The big difference between the Brewers and the teams that make all the moves and grab the headlines is that said teams can afford to make impact acquisitions through free agency, and the Brewers will never a significant player in that market. Look at the Yankees, they can give away draft picks and sign impact players now, they can always focus on winning now vs the Brewers who have to keep 1 eye on the future and 1 on the present to remain competitive.

 

Dunn makes sense because he's a significant upgrade over Hart offensively, and if he can be a competent receiver at 1B he would allow the team to move Fielder for an area of greater need such as starting pitching and improve the entire IF defense in one shot... according to Fan Graphs coming in to 2008 Fielder is equal in value to James Shields.... how good would a pitcher of that quality look in our rotation? I don't think signing relievers makes sense, and no I don't buy into the shortening the game to 8 innings theory. This is a team with limited financial resources which was stretched to the max last year at 90 million... take away Suppan and look at the other 24 players... how do we get the best 24 players we can for around 72 million? (I think the budget for player salaries is around 85 mil) How much bang do the Brewers get out of their buck for a closer? The guys left on the market will get around 7 mil per... that's Looper type money for 120 less innings of work. That's SP money for 1/3 of the innings...where's the value in that?

[Never Outhustled]

How exactly do the Brewers remain competitive year in and year out without a farm system that is producing quality MLB players?

I agree that we need to find a couple quality starters from our system every couple years, but your talking about trading Hardy next year and starting 4 rookies (Cain, Gamel, Lucroy or Salome, and Escobar). This team won't be close to competing if it starts 4 rookies, you'd be giving 2010 away. Did you do a payroll analysis of this plan, because that would give us a payroll much smaller than necessary? By not trading a prospect or 2 to get a pitcher, your giving 2009 away too.

 

And this talk of another deadline deal doesn't make any sense... with what prospects?

We just drafted 6 guys in the top 66 last year, we have an incredibly deep system, which most will realize by the middle of next year. When we break in a couple of rookies next year, we will have put ourselves in good payroll standing, and only will need to break in a couple more youngsters in 2011-2012.

 

I understand trading Hardy, but not Escobar when he's so inexpensive and will have to fill the hole at SS.

Hardy will be better than Escobar in 2009 and 2010. Trading Hardy makes little sense to me, as most of the upgrade we make at another position will be offset by the downgrade at SS.

 

 

The only way the Brewers can realistically plug holes with quality (impact) players is through the farm system... I would think anyone that was holding out hope things were different would have learned from the last 2 off seasons.

 

 

Wasn't Mike Cameron a pretty good signing last year?

 

 

 

If Hardy doesn't sign a deal there is no way the Brewers can afford to trade Escobar

The Brewers have Hardy through 2010. Brewer might be ready in 2011. Can't we wait until 2011 to address a possible hole at SS? Trades can be made if Brewer isn't ready. Or make a Cameron type signing.

 

 

Brewer will likely start in AA, but he's still so raw it's hard to gage what kind of player he will be, his defense is Braunesque at a traditionally defensive first position.

Now now, Brewer may be error prone, but he has tremendous range, Braun had none. A better comparison for Brewers D would be Jose Valentine.

 

X will probably crucify me

How could I crucify 1 of my favorite posters during the holiday season? I appreciate the way you challenge me. And someday you'll realize the greatness of the talented Mr. Brewer http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

 

 

 

Deadline deals for top prospects will cripple the franchise in the long run, the Brewers can only afford to make a deal every couple of years, the rest of prospects will be needed to plug holes

Deadline deals will fuel our franchise. Some just won't see the results of it until the prospects we get with the extra comp picks we get from those soon to be FA trade acquisitions start making there impact on the system. I don't know how you can argue that we won't get more prospects by doubling our number of top 2 round picks.

[TheCrew07]

It's obviously we've never agreed on the whole deadline deal thing, it would be easier if you would just agree to disagree with me... :p

 

I'm not sure how you feel about Frederickson, I know how you feel about Dykstra, but best case scenario for both of those players is probably 2012, that's a long ways off on both the production and injury front to be penciling in starters. As far as roster construction, yes we have players we can move, but the moves would only create more problems going forward. I'm not looking at the roster in 2009, I'm looking at '10, '11. I don't see how breaking in talent in '10 will be a problem, this next group of young players hasn't been rushed at all, not like Weeks or Hardy. While there will be growing pains I'm sure (Braun's level success doesn't happen all that often), I believe their potential struggles are greatly overstated. Salome/Lucroy alone would be a huge offensive upgrade over Kendell and Lucroy would provide similar defense. At any rate, you're coming from the "more picks=more prospects" angle which I can agree with, but I think you ignore the very real fact that it pushes our top prospects farther away from MLB. Will the comp picks be better than Iman/Garrison/Thatcher? Maybe, that's far from fact at this point in time, and will debatable for every single deal that is made. I'd rather acquire quality than quantity... lets trade a MiLB hitting prospect for an MiLB pitching prospect, or a Hardy type for a pitcher, an established player for established prospects, or multiple prospects for a long term solution. In other words let's trade for tangible value, not the promise of a future draft pick who's value is impossible to define.

 

I don't see the value in acquiring Sabathia, I wasn't concerned with making playoffs I was concerned with the hole in the rotation after this season. I still would have rather acquired a long term solution for the rotation, that's just how I feel about that particular trade. In terms of our other prospects like Green, he can fill 2 different positions of need so while he has trade value, I see him as critical to the future roster construction. If you trade redundant players that's one thing, but again why wouldn't we move the move valuable pieces trading one of Hardy or Fielder to get a top of rotation starter instead both Escobar and Gamel to acquire the same player? Too often I feel that contract length and cost are left out of these discussions. I believe Hardy/Fielder will not sign with the Brewers, in that scenario what's better... 2 comp picks or a top of rotation starter? I'll take the sure thing over the 2 picks every single time. Trading established players also leaves enough prospects behind to fill other holes as the need may arise. I'm not against moving prospects at all, I'm just not into moving them for rentals when the same deal can net greater value to the big club. For example I have a time believing that the players the Brewers gave up for Sabathia wouldn't have been enough to get a player like Morrow from Seattle. Like anything else, this all comes down what each of us personally believes in.

 

As far as Brewer goes, my point was that his defense was bad on an epic scale, which you are free to disagree with. He's also too much of a free swinger for me personally at this point in time. I've broken down his stats on the minor league forum many times so I believe you get where I'm coming from on him. You know I like him, but at this point in time Escobar is the infinitely better prospect.

[dpapo]

I added the link in the Cameron thread, but from that same Haudricourt article it looks like Melvin was seriously considering signing Cruz, until they lost the 1st round they were going to get for C.C.

 

"Before signing Hoffman, the Brewers had shown interest in reliever Juan Cruz. But Cruz is a Class A free agent and the Brewers would have to surrender a first-round draft pick to Arizona to sign him.

Melvin was willing to sacrifice a first-rounder when he thought he'd be getting one in return from New York as compensation for losing CC Sabathia. But when the Yankees signed a higher-ranked Class A free agent, Mark Teixeira, the Brewers were bumped back to receiving a second-round pick from New York.

"The CC thing hurt us," said Melvin. "I don't want to give up a first-rounder now. We have to continue to build from within."

[Fatter than Joey]

In addition to what X said, it should also be pointed out that the comp picks span from the 1st round through the 2nd, and that with the exception of the most recent drafts for obvious reasons,

 

If you are really being thorough -- for the purpose of this discussion you need to disqualify picks 1-15, as they are protected -- and we are only really talking about picks that you could lose or acquire....

 

It could be possible that most of the 50% of the AS picks mentioned above come from the first 15 selections -- I don't know this to be true -- but it seems potentially misleading to me.

[MNBrew]

Why would he comment about getting picks for Sheets, when he hasn't even signed anywhere yet? It also seems like he's basing decisions to go after free agents on whether or not they will "cost picks". Maybe he's just using the "hey, at least we got picks" silver lining to justify the inactivity this off season. I'm starting to wonder if I missed the part where this team is rebuilding.....maybe the ultimate goal of this management was to squeak into the playoffs as a wild card. I really hope I'm wrong here, because I think this team can compete with one more solid starter, a couple of arms for the bullpen and perhaps a lefty bat. It just doesn't seem like they are doing anything. Maybe they are keeping things close to the belt with negotiations, but I doubt it considering even their interest in a fairly low profile guy like Looper has made the news. We are one week from January, and it's really starting to look like a Selig/Bando off season.

RCC, I know I'm about 2 weeks later in this thread to respond, but here's where I think you were missing the boat at the time you wrote this:

 

I don't think DM tells fibs to the media, not at all. On the other hand, like any sensible GM, what he says to the public vs. what he says internally and what he thinks are surely different. He's not just gonna come out in the paper saying "I think it's time we could go out and sign Sheets back again." He's gonna keep playin' it cool and let the market itself start to tell Ben that the Brewers may indeed be his best option.

 

Draft picks = rebuilding? I don't think so. You always want as many high draft picks as you can get. If you still have many strong players when the young guys are finally proving they can cut it in the bigs, you have the choice of which positive assets to deal. If the big leaguers are stinkin' it up, you have some legit hope to bank on. I still think DM's one of the best GMs we could have.