Braden Looper: Reports he's nearing deal with Brewers- Latest: Melvin confirms interest, but nothing imminent

[Oldcity]

Most of that OPS against number for McClung came as a reliever. As a starter McClung's OPS against was .735. I don't think it's realistic to expect that over a full season of McClung starting.

 

Adding Looper wouldn't just be for insurance in case of injury. The Brewers need to add at least one starter, because even if you are ok with Yo-Parra-Bush-Suppan-McClung, you need sixth and seventh-type guys because pitchers will get injured. Sure I'd love for the Brewers to sign Sheets or Randy Johnson, but they could do a lot worse than Looper... Like not adding anyone at all.

[endaround]

McClung is replacement level, expecting more out of him is asking for trouble. Because he walks so many that even if he makes 30 starts he may only pitch 150 innings. He works much better in relief. Looper over McClung is like a 2 win improvement. Alone it does nothing, add to something else and you move the Brewers in 85 win territory. The problem is that starting pitching, especially this year, is the easiest place for the Brewers to pick up wins and signing Looper cuts that off.

[PeaveyFury]

The more I think of it the more I hate this potential deal.

 

But to be fair bklyn, you hate almost all potential deals, including the Sabathia one.

[Oldcity]

The problem is that starting pitching, especially this year, is the easiest place for the Brewers to pick up wins and signing Looper cuts that off.

Sorry, just trying to clarify what you meant by that. That signing Looper prevents them from signing a better starter?

[endaround]

Pretty much. They have one open spot in the rotation and if they spend $7m on Looper that's it.

[princeginterhallhelms04]

Looper interests me a little and if the price was right i'd like him. Good depth in my eyes! But i'd still like to add another starter that's more then a mix of Bushy and Suppan. As the days tick i keep thinking Sheets just might be coming back on a one year deal or maybe two year deal and hit FA again when he is healthier.

[DHonks]

endaround, this is one of those things that's based on feel, so I know you won't like the argument. When McClung comes into games in relief, I tend to think "well, this one is over...we've lost." When he starts, he tends to have some room to work around his walks because early in the games, the offense can rally back from the run or two he gives up. So I definitely prefer McClung as a starter. He's had one dominant relief outing, and suddenly some folks (note necessarily you) are anointing him closer

[davego]

Since today is the anniversary of the Suppon deal, be a great day to add Looper.

[Never Outhustled]

While I realize the team will likely need 6 or 7 starters over the course of 162 games, couldn't we wait until the need arrises to aquire them? That worked out OK last year. Not too many teams make the post season without some sort of in-season deal.

If we can aquire a 3 ERA type guy, do it. But if we're just looking at lateral moves from McClung, I'll pass.

[Invader3K]

I feel like that is maybe Melvin's plan, again. I have to believe Attanasio will let him make another trade similar to the Sabathia one (granted it probably won't be as blockbuster this time) if the Brewers are still in the thick of things, come late June/early July.

[kramnoj]

While I realize the team will likely need 6 or 7 starters over the course of 162 games, couldn't we wait until the need arrises to aquire them? That worked out OK last year.

 

It's not a good idea to make a trade in need, because you are likely going to have to overpay when your trade partner knows that you have a need. I would also disagree that CC was acquired because of a need. He was acquired because he was available, he was a significant upgrade, and the Brewers had the pieces to make it happen.

 

I don't think that anyone who is "defending" this deal would like this to be the primary move the Brewers make. But if the better pitchers are asking for deals the Brewers don't want, and if Looper will improve the current pitching staff for a reasonable deal, it makes sense for the Brewers to do it.

[Never Outhustled]

It's not a good idea to make a trade in need, because you are likely going to have to overpay when your trade partner knows that you have a need

A players trade value is dicated by the numbers of teams pursuing the player. Whether its a need of yours or not means nothing. Pitchers are available at the deadline every year, and there pricetag is pretty standard stuff.

[kramnoj]

A players trade value is dicated by the numbers of teams pursuing the player. Whether its a need of yours or not means nothing.

 

I just don't think this is true at all. One of the reasons that the Cameron trade isn't happening is because the Yankees didn't need him. He would have been a nice upgrade at a reasonable cost, but Cashman wasn't going to give up more than he wanted to for him. If it's in the season and Cashman loses a CF and the Yankees are falling behind the playoff race, Cashman surely would be more likely to give up a low level arm, and maybe more to get the deal done.

 

Pitchers are available at the deadline every year, and there pricetag is pretty standard stuff.

 

Your previous point was that a team should wait for a need to develop before acquiring a 6th or 7th starter. What if you need that depth before the trade deadline?

[Never Outhustled]

I just don't think this is true at all. One of the reasons that the Cameron trade isn't happening is because the Yankees didn't need him.

So if the Yankees threw in a low level arm with Melky Cabera to get a top 10 CF they'd be overpaying? The deal didn't get done because the Yankees haven't made a fair offer.

 

Your previous point was that a team should wait for a need to develop before acquiring a 6th or 7th starter. What if you need that depth before the trade deadline?

Neither Sebathia nor Harden were dealine deals.

[kramnoj]

So if the Yankees threw in a low level arm with Melky Cabera to get a top 10 CF they'd be overpaying? The deal didn't get done because the Yankees haven't made a fair offer.

 

The deal didn't get done because the Yankees didn't have enough of a need to get the deal done. If their need was greater, they would have made the deal while adding more value. It's clear that desperate teams overpay. Kazmir for Zambrano being an example. You could say it was a stupid deal, but desperation results in stupidty (and overpaying). Now I don't expect Melvin to make a deal like that. But I also don't expect another team to just trade away something that Melvin wants because Melvin has a need. Once that need is exposed, it only makes sense that the trading partner will extract the most out of the deal that they can.

 

Neither Sebathia nor Harden were dealine deals.

 

No, but they were closer to the deadline than the start of the season, and they wouldn't have been available at the start of the season. You're evading the question. You said that a team can make a trade when they have a need, and then you said there are plenty of pitchers available at the deadline. What happens if a pitcher goes down in ST, or in the first month of the season?

[JohnBriggs12]

The argument that it adds depth to the rotation only holds water if Looper is better than one of the starters not including Suppan who gets a rotation spot by default because of his pricetag. If you sign Looper to a multiyear deal, you are committed to him as a starter. That would take 2 of your rotation spots that you have no flexibilty to alter because of the money invested. If you're arguing that McClung is replacement level (and he wasn't in 2008), then that is a different argument. You also have to believe that 34 year old Looper will be above replacement level over the course of his contract, and frankly that's a gamble they shouldn't take.

 

Even if the best case scenario that Looper adds 2 wins this year, that doesn't make this team a contender in 2009 because this team has many other issues.

 

They are better off either keeping that money for future use, using it on a bullpen arm or an impact bat.

 

By the way, McClung had better control and a lower WHIP as a starter than he did as a reliever. The difference in OPS, was entirely based on slugging because he allowed a higher HR rate as a starter. Nevertheless, slugging perctange against was still under .400 which is still quite good.

[PeaveyFury]

The argument that it adds depth to the rotation only holds water if Looper is better than one of the starters not including Suppan who gets a rotation spot by default because of his pricetag.

 

That's not really the definition of depth at all and doesn't address the point that people are actually trying to make- he adds depth to the staff in two clear ways: even if he pushes McClung to the bullpen, that means that if (when) one of our starters gets hurt, you can then put McClung in the rotation to fill the spot instead of having to go with someone like Difelice. Also, having McClung in the bullpen adds depth and increases the quality in the pen, as you have McClung there instead of someone like Difelice.

[Invader3K]

The other thing is that if Looper scuffles as a starter, they could easily move him to the bullpen where he is likely to be pretty serviceable.

[areacodes]

In McCalvy's article from before Christmas, that I also posted in the 2009 Closer Thread, there was a quote from Melvin that made me think that the Brewers were only interested in Looper on a 1 year deal.

 

"I don't think anything is going to happen [with Looper]," he said. "I think he's going to wait until after the holiday, too. Players are all still looking for multiyear deals and waiting for other players to sign."

 

Another thing of note from the article is that Melvin mentioned that he is in "one or two" serious negotiations for FA pitchers apparently not named Fuentes or Looper.

[mothershipconnection]

there was a quote from Melvin that made me think that the Brewers were only interested in Looper on a 1 year deal.

 

Yeah, I think we need to wait and see the details of any possible deal before we completely defend or attack it. Melvin may simply have assumed the market for Looper was gonna be really weak and will offer a contract accordingly. I'm in the preliminary stages of looking for a new house, and I've definitely scouted some Braden Loopers of the housing market because I've guessed the sellers are desperate in this bad economy and I may be able to come out way ahead on the deal, but I have no interest in paying full pre-recession value for those houses. If I float enough offers that are great for me, I'm gonna get turned down enough, but I'm guessing someone finally bites out of desperation. This may be exactly what the Moustache is doing.

[CWSOmaha]

Besides Looper who else is out there? And at what point does Melvin decide to try to trade for pitching?

[kramnoj]

Lowe, but he won't sign with the Brewers. After that, Garland, Oliver Perez, Randy Wolf, Odalis Perez, Byrd, Redding, Sheets, Penny (but I think he already has better offers) plus other minor pitchers or long shots (Pedro, Smoltz, Mulder, etc).

 

As far as trades, at one point Melvin was talking about acquiring a pitcher through trade rather than FA. I wonder if he explored options and didn't see the value he wanted.

[CWSOmaha]

kramnoj- You're right Melvin did talk about getting some pitching help through trades. I'm hoping he still looks at that avenue. I would hope at some point some team needs a left-handed DH! Maybe I'm wrong but Melvin to me seems very passive (obviously I have no insider info, just a guess). Hate to say this but both GM's Melvin and Thompson seem pretty passive and don't look to do anything unless they're approached first. They both seem very happy with the staus quo. Look how it worked out for the Packers!!!

Not many of those P available really strikes me as something that would be worth a risk, unless the risk to the team is very low.

[TooLiveBrew]

Besides Looper who else is out there? And at what point does Melvin decide to try to trade for pitching?

 

Melvin mentioned very early this offseason that if he were to add a SP, it would most likely come via trade. To be fair, that's the last I've heard him mention that. Once some more (good god I still can't believe what a bad contract the Yankees gave Burnett) FA pitchers are off the market, the trade game should heat up.

[endaround]

From fangraphs on latest signing:

 

Dodgers sign Claudio Vargas (1/400k, potential for 1.4 mil in incentives)

 

One could've pegged Vargas as a potential Oriole as well, but alas it wasn't to be. Vargas spent 2008 with the Mets, throwing 37 innings with a 4.51 FIP and lowered strikeout rates. It's worth noting Vargas velocity averaged out about a mile per hour less than 2007 and two below 2005/2006 averages. Historically, Vargas shows slight favoritism to flyballs. CHONE has Vargas equal to Braden Looper and Freddy Garcia amongst others with right around one WAR projected. You have to give Ned Colletti props for the signing, considering the Dodgers are getting him for the minimum, or at worst ~2 million.