Braden Looper: Reports he's nearing deal with Brewers- Latest: Melvin confirms interest, but nothing imminent

[TheCrew07]

When will the Brewers ever be the highest bidder for a top of line of starter? The answer in this current system is most likely never... now we can acquire one via trade but that's another topic entirely. Looper might very well be the best pitcher for the money who's out there, which means he's good value, I won't debate that. However, I don't really see the point of Looper over McClung, we're paying more for essentially the same production run wise. I actually like McClung's overall numbers better, and granted they came in a much smaller sample but McClung K's almost 1 guy per inning, where as Looper is down around .5 guys per inning. Looper's K:BB ratio is obviously better, but McClung's isn't bad even though he gives up more BBs.

 

How many wins is Looper worth over McClung? If the answer is less than 3 this deal doesn't make much sense, this is a very marginal upgrade of the rotation on paper for a 7 million dollar difference salary (I think Looper will get 8ish) which doesn't strike me as good value to the Brewers. So, while Looper may good value as far as FA pitchers go, I don't see him being good value as FA signing in this particular case. I don't see any point in spending money on the bottom of the rotation, especially with Suppan already eating up 12+ mil of payroll to be the 5th starter. To me it seems that signing a bottom of the rotation starter is just spending money to spend money, which is never a good thing.

[strawbossisevil]

Going into the season with only five starters wouldn't be a good plan either TheCrew07. If McClung is the 6th starter, we are somewhat protected from an injury to anyone but Gallardo. And two or three wins could be the difference between being in the hunt for a playoff spot and being an also ran.

 

If we can get Looper at a good value for the production he would bring (due in large part to the deflated market), I don't see how it would be a bad move. If all it brings, at the very least, is a #3/#4 pitcher and the extra body on the depth chart.

 

What it really comes down to is how much Looper will make over how many years. If he is around 5-7 million over two years, that's a good deal for a middle of the rotation starter. If its 8 million over three years, it may not be a wise financial move, especially since this year is his age 34 season.

[Pudster13]

I can't believe that the majority of the responses in this thread are positive toward this rumor.

 

Braden Looper? Are you guys serious?

 

This reminds me of when the Brewers signed Suppan and the majority of guys thought it was a brilliant signing for the Brewers because he was an "innings eater" with postseason experience. What did that get us in game 4 of the NLDS last year people?

 

Pat Burrell having a field day at Miller Park, that's what!

 

Looper has many similarities to Suppan:

 

-innings eater

-former Cardinal

-career ERA near league average

-low stirkeout, control pitcher

-past his prime (35 years old)

 

If the Brewers replace either Sabathia OR Sheets in the rotation with Looper, the Brewers will NOT contend in 2009.

 

Villanueva, Capuano, or McClung would be a better rotation option, IMO.

 

Let's spend our free agent money on something of quality for crying out loud.

 

Come on Doug!

[And That]

Are you guys serious?

I would assume that since many well thought-out posts have been written in favor of signing Looper that yes, people are serious about it.

 

The phrase "are you serious?" is condescending. Please do not use it.

[RightFieldCoder]

Is there any chance Melvin talked to Looper about becoming the closer in Milwaukee? That would make more sense to me than to bring him in as a starter.

[strawbossisevil]

There is a big difference between this and a Suppan signing.

 

1. Looper is a better pitcher.

2. Looper will be signed to a cheaper contract.

3. Looper will not be signed for four years.

 

Looper may actually be a decent value depending on how much he costs. Suppan many agreed from the day he signed would be overpaid in the last two years of the deal.

 

Comparing signing Looper for a reasonable contract while the market is down, to signing Suppan to a bloated contract when the market was at its peak is comparing apples to oranges IMO.

 

And just so you know, baseball reference points out that he will be 34 this season, and not 35 like you claim.

[sheetskout]

2:1 K/BB ratio is pretty decent.

Not sure which league you are watching, but a 2:1 K/BB ratio is NOT good at all.

[Ennder]

Also of note is that Suppan actually was about what was expected until his DL trip last year. He had 52 starts with a 4.65 ERA. After the DL trip he had 13 starts with a 5.31 ERA and combined he has given the Brewers 65 starts of 4.78 ERA over two years. That is a pretty league average pitcher which puts him at around 1-2 wins over replacement.

 

Most people thought Suppan got overpaid a little but he hasn't really done anything except what most people expected out of him so far as a Brewer other than maybe the fact he missed 3 or 4 starts last year.

[trwi7]

Not sure which league you are watching, but a 2:1 K/BB ratio is NOT good at all.

First of all, he said it was decent, not good. Second of all, a 2:1 K/BB ratio is league average.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs/526_P_season_full_3_20080930.png

[Ennder]

Matt Cain had a 2.04 K/BB last year and everyone wants us to trade for him~. Moyer had a 1.98, Parra a 1.95, Joe Saunders a 1.95, Zambrano a 1.81. 2.00 isn't terrible for a starter, but it isn't great either.

[TheCrew07]

So we should spend 8 million on insurance? The team has plenty of arms than can come up and throw if need be. The issue is quality...

[Ennder]

So we should spend 8 million on insurance? The team has plenty of arms than can come up and throw if need be. The issue is quality...

We don't have a single arm that we can trust to come up and fill in a rotation spot. Gallardo and Parra most likely are good for around 175 IP, Suppan might struggle to reach 200 and I highly doubt McClung can go more than 150-175. This team needs at least 100-200 IP of SP still and this is one way to do it at above replacement level. There are other ways that I probably like better than this but signing someone like this is still 10 billion times better than going into the season signing nobody.

[endaround]

Suppan stunk all the year save August. The fact his ERA was ok before his "injury" just hides the fact he gave up a buttload of unearned runs.

[Invader3K]

So we should spend 8 million on insurance? The team has plenty of arms than can come up and throw if need be. The issue is quality...

You're right it is quality. Looper is probably a more solid starter than three or four of those arms at this point.

[strawbossisevil]

I didn't say it was just on insurance. I said that was ONE of the benefits of adding him. On top of that is that we would be receiving a Dave Bush level starter for a reasonable contract. His contract would not be the albatross that Suppan's is. I think it would fall into the 6-7 million a range, or about half what Suppan is making right now.

[TheCrew07]

Marginal quality invader... like maybe no tangible gain at all over who we have for the sake of depth. If Looper is acquired that will be our rotation until Suppan is gone, there's no room for an upgrade, and that's a very average MLB rotation. Where can we improve if our 4 and 5 are signed to multi year deals? I really like Parra, LHP that can run the ball up there at 95mph are pretty rare, but he's not a top of the rotation pitcher yet, so who else do we lean on if we make the playoffs. This is the point I've been trying to make all along, people are trying to instantly plug holes and get back to the playoffs... to what end? So we can get bounced in the first round even if we get there? What's the point in that? To put up a playoff banner? I say again that the talent level begins to pickup for the MLB team again in 2010, so '10, '11, '12 should be very good seasons. Yo, Parra, Bush, Looper, Suppan is very underwhelming to me, I'd rather have Yo, 1/2 Pitcher, Parra, Bush, Suppan... then if any of the young kids take off maybe they can eat Suppan's salary and just dump him for '10, or maybe shift Bush to the pen, whatever they do we have options. In my ideal little world Bush gets pushed all the way back to the 5th starter at some point before he walks. Signing Looper would mean no trade for a different SP and what we see is what we get until those contracts run out. Maybe if Looper was acquired and the team traded Fielder then Bush would be included in the deal, but I'm unsure how much interest a team would have in him as 1 year rental.

 

I haven't even touched on Looper's stuff or his age, but our infield defense is horrid, so I'm not sure how another extreme ground ball pitcher is a good idea for the way this team in currently constructed. How many DPs are we botching in a season for no other reason than dropped balls and poor throws? Gamel might get to be a league average defender at some point if he sticks at 3B, Hardy/Escobar are solid, Weeks has range and not much else, and Prince doesn't really offer anything positive defensively... I just don't see how all of the pieces fit here.

 

I'm not saying Looper isn't a valuable piece for someone out there who needs a 3/4 type pitcher, I already said he may be the best value of any FA SP out there. I'm just saying I don't feel he's a good fit given his salary/production, age, the pitcher he's replacing, and the environment he'd be playing in.

[And That]

As long as it isn't for more than $6-7 mil a year for 2-3 years, Looper would be a fine signing for depth. You get much more past that in terms of dollars, you're paying too much for depth IMO. If you're really desperate not to have a guy like Chris Narveson or Brae Wright be your 7th or 8th rotation option, there are still serviceable options available besides Looper at $7 mil a year or less.

 

I agree with Patrick that the move makes a lot more sense if it comes with adding Fuentes or Hoffman or Smoltz as closer.

[RU Rah Rah]

I haven't even touched on Looper's stuff or his age, but our infield defense is horrid, so I'm not sure how another extreme ground ball pitcher is a good idea for the way this team in currently constructed.

This would be a problem in signing Lowe, too. Good point.

[BrewCrewForever]

I am not a fan of signing Looper. I would rather pay a little more and get Jon Garland.

[twobrewers]

Villanueva, Capuano, or McClung would be a better rotation option,

Chris Capuano's left arm disagrees with you.

[mothershipconnection]

Trying to tie the two together because they're two-pitch pitchers isn't fair to either one.

 

I too have two pitches: eephus and a blistering 70mph heater. I probably coulda gone pro if I developed a changeup to keep hitters off balance after the heat.

[JohnBriggs12]

Looper wasn't a very good reliever (3.58 ERA, more hits than innings pitched). He was serviceable as a 4th starter for 2 years though with very average stuff as evidenced by his well over a hit an inning allowed. His K/BB ratio is fine but is more a product of low walks, than high K's. This guy doesn't miss bats.

 

A one year deal for a guy like that makes sense. 2 years is a stretch but depending on the cost, could make sense. Anything over 2 years would be insane for a 34 year old with a resume of just 2 average seasons as a starter. It would only take slight regression for him to be a scrap heap type pitcher.

 

Either way, Braden Looper does not make the Brewers contenders. Period. So why spend the cash at all?

[Tbadder]

Mainly because the Brewers can't be contenders next year. We need stop-gaps for a year or two until we, and we, get a meaning infusion of young talent.

[bklynbrewcrew]

The more I think of it the more I hate this potential deal. As others have said Looper doesnt make the Brewers contenders; all he does is add a bottom of the rotation arm. Between Suppan,Bush, and Parra we have enough question marks as it is with Parra the only one of the three having the potential to really step up. In my mind the Brewers have two choices; either sign a top of the rotation starter cough Sheets cough or sign guys like Mulder or garcia to minor league deals and hope for the best. To pay Looper 5 mil plus per year over 2 or 3 years is a waste of money and doesnt really make the team any better. He is basically a slightly better Suppan and with our defense and his age that is a disaster waiting to happen.

[JohnBriggs12]

Here's something else to ponder.

 

The consensus is that barring injury, Looper replaces McClung in rotation. Well in 08, McClung had a .715 OPS against. Looper had a .764. If we could somehow magically replace Suppan with Looper, then it's an upgrade, but all this does basically is somewhat bolster the pen by putting McClung in the pen. If you're going to spend $6-8 million (apparently the consensus of what he'd get) per year, why not just add a reliever? You could get a pretty good quality reliever in this market for that price. Rotation depth could then come from Villanueva plus another guy like a John Parrish who's out there and who's cheap that can start or relieve.