Braden Looper: Reports he's nearing deal with Brewers- Latest: Melvin confirms interest, but nothing imminent

[TooLiveBrew]

I just think Doug Melvin does a very solid job at managing a mid or small-market team, which is a very employable asset in MLB. Even the bad Gagne deal was limited in risk at just one season. I'd be startled, frankly, to learn that he'd agree to invest any more than a season or two on Looper. Just doesn't seem like his style. I love Looper's low BB rate too, and obviously that's a big Melvin selling point.

 

Another thing to note on Looper is his HR/FB rate -- 9.8% for his career, and 10.9% as a SP. That's a tick better than 11.6%, the career rate for both Suppan & Bush. Looper's got a career FIP of 4.23 (4.82 as SP in 2007, 4.52 in 2008). Fwiw, Suppan career FIP 4.79, Bush 4.48. If Looper can perform somewhere between Bush & Soup, I think this could round out the rotation in solid (if unspectacular) fashion. That is, without taking into account the inevitable injury in the rotation.

[tigerbrew]

I'm ok with getting Looper provided it's only 2 years for around $5M+ per year. No point overpaying for him.

[ILuvDaBush]

I think we'll probably be pleasantly surprised by the signing. It seems that it is a complete buyers' market, and with the standstill at present, many FA's are getting a bit nervous. Last year, there were many veterans left out in the cold, and Looper has seen first hand (Lohse) what can happen when a FA waits a day too long instead of signing one day too soon. My guess would be this deal should mimic Cameron's (though obviously not in dollars). 1yr/$5.25M 2nd yr/8.75M (team option), 250K buyout. A one year deal for $5.5M, or 2/14 with success, would be ideal for both sides, giving security to the Brewer fans while also allowing Looper's agent to get a good salary in a down economy.

[JoeHova]

I don't see any reason why Looper would sign for something as low as $5.5 over one year when he made that last year and proceeded to have his best season. Lohse was a different situation because he had been salary dumped at the deadline 2 consecutive years and still ended up with his highest annual salary ever last year. If anything, that situation would be encouraging to Looper in the sense that he could wait till spring training and still get at least what he got last year from some team, if not more. The Cameron signing was also different because Mike had the amphetamine suspension hanging over his head.

 

Signing Looper wouldn't necessarily be a bad thing but I wouldn't be surprised at all if he collapsed to a 5+ ERA as a starter, just like Suppan and Bush have done recently (and Looper pretty much had in 2007). He doesn't K anybody and he is getting old. I'd probably rather pay the minimum to Claudio Vargas and use the 6-9 million savings on an offensive upgrade. Or, as someone else mentioned, if you are going to take a chance on a pitcher that is as likely as not to totally suck, why not bring in Ollie Perez? At least he has some upside.

 

I guess that the money is the key factor in any possible Looper signing. If it's for $5 million or less per year (which I don't see how it could be, nut you never know), he could always be moved back to the bullpen if his performance goes south. If it's for closer to $10, then it's terrible, imo, not in isolation necessarily, but for the Brewers' situation.

[PeaveyFury]

Or, as someone else mentioned, if you are going to take a chance on a pitcher that is as likely as not to totally suck, why not bring in Ollie Perez?

 

Well, for one reason, you'd have to give the Mets a first round pick for Perez.

 

For another, Looper actually out-pitched Perez in 2008, FWIW.

[Never Outhustled]

Looper is a groundball machine, a pretty bad thing to be when your starting infield includes Lamb, Weeks, and Fielder. Look for Loopers ERA to skyrocket in Milwaukee.

[Fatter than Joey]

I don't think that is what this team needs the most right now. Unless they complement the signing of someone like Looper with the signing of someone like Brian Fuentes, which would strengthen the entire pitching staff from the bottom up (instead of from the top down, which is how CC strengthened the team), I'm not a big fan of the team adding Looper as it stands by itself.

 

I think this is the best post in the thread with regards to how I feel about this signing....

 

Looper is statistically very similar to Bush, and you already mentioned Suppan and McClung.

 

Suppan given the $27M he is owed, will not get booted from the rotation. I think that this is an important point in this discussion... Unless Suppan is hurt, he is going to be a part of the rotation as long as he is a Brewer -- the Brewers may push him down to #5, but they aren't going to move Suppan out of the rotation unless they move him out of Milwaukee altogether.

 

I don't see Looper as an upgrade from Bush -- perhaps McClung, but probably not a very substantial one.

 

Of course this deal could give us some SP depth -- but I would rather see that depth come from adding to the top (or near the top) and sliding everyone down, rather than adding to the bottom. If this is a one year deal, or a 2 year deal for $11M, I like this signing a lot more... If we add an arm to the BP (like Patrick mentions Fuentes), then this makes a lot more sense as well.

 

I guess to me, it all depends on how much money we spend.

 

I just think Doug Melvin does a very solid job at managing a mid or small-market team, Even the bad Gagne deal was limited in risk at just one season.

 

Jeff Suppan says hi! -- While I certainly, do not disagree that DM does a fine job overall, He has made some FA boners.

[bklynbrewcrew]

Unless we are getting him for 5 mil or less I dont like this signing at all. As others have pointed out we need a 1/2 starter and not a 4/5. Looper is fine for those roles but the Brewers currently have too many similar pitchers and really need a potential ace atop the rotation along with Gallardo. It has also been pointed out that a groundball pitcher with this defense is not a good thing either.

 

If the Brewers are going to contend next season they need a top flight starter to go along with Yo. Looper would just be another stop gap type of guy and not really strengthen our rotation enough to win. Looper would be a signing for depth only since he isnt a high quality pitcher and at the likely cost that it will take to acquire him I would pass.

[JoeHova]

Well, for one reason, you'd have to give the Mets a first round pick for Perez.

 

For another, Looper actually out-pitched Perez in 2008, FWIW.

 

 

I forgot that the Mets offered arby, which would complicate matters, but giving up one pick wouldn't be the end of the world, especially when 5 comp picks are likely coming the Brewers' way. And Perez was outpitched by Looper by the barest of margins in 2008 (102 ERA+ for Looper vs. 100 for Perez in 5 more innings for Looper). However, the scale is massively tilted in Perez's favor by the facts that he's 7 years younger than Looper and has had stretches (twice including whole seasons) of dominance as a starter.

 

I don't know, I just don't see how picking up an average-ish guy to replace a possibly 5% below average guy (McClung) is going to help the team much. Sure, the Brewers will likely need a 6th or 7th starter at some point, but guys like Claudio Vargas can be had for free pretty much every year. There's no need to pay a premium for so small of an upgrade, imo. The money should be used for a more drastic upgrade, or, if none can be found, banked for when one can be found. Perez may not be much of an upgrade either, but he at least offers the possibility of being one, unlike Looper.

 

I don't think (in any sport) that you win by paying average guys large salaries. You win by paying great players big salaries and filling in around them with young guys and fill-ins. Look at, for example, the Celtics or the Cardinals when they won recently- they paid their good players big money and filled in around them with moderate cost vets and cheap kids. Suppan looks a lot better at $4 million per on the Cards than he does at $11 million per on the Brewers.

[JohnBriggs12]

Looper is not a clear upgrade over McClung. In fact it's possible we haven't seent the best McClung has to offer. But if you sign Looper, he'll be in the rotation and McClung likely won't.

 

The Brewers need to add starters that are either clearly better than Suppan or McClung, or cheap enough, that you can use them as your long reliever if they don't beat out one of your starters.

 

Looper doesn't fall into either of those categories. Say he were to get a 3 year, $20 million deal. How much better is Looper than a guy like John Parrish who was 10-1 with a 2.97 ERA at AAA, and 1-1 with a 4.04 ERA in 6 starts for the Jays and is likely to be had on either a minor league or near minimum major league deal?

[bklynbrewcrew]

Joe Hova sums it up very nicely for me. I hate paying for mediocrity and Looper is mediocre. We should either pay for a very good/great pitcher or sign a few more scrap heap guys to minor league deals. This team doesnt need a 4/5 starter; we have plenty of those. We need a guy a top the rotation to take the pressure off Gallardo. Unless we get that we will have a very tough time competing for the playoffs.

 

We also need to improve the bullpen. Other than Villy I dont fully trust any of these guys to get the job done consistently and with our rotation looking far weaker than a year ago our bullpen will be that much more important.

[Oldcity]

This team doesnt need a 4/5 starter; we have plenty of those.

 

I actually don't see one 4/5 starter on the Brewers. I see a 2, two 3s and some 6s.

[strawbossisevil]

As stated earlier, we have no idea how much he would sign for. My guess would be around 5 or 6 million per year. If we can get him for two years, I do not see how this would be a bad signing. I see him as being a guy who should have an ERA in the mid 4s. Giving us a rotation of the following.

 

1. Gallardo 3.50 ERA

2. Parra 4.25 ERA

3. Bush 4.50 ERA

4. Looper 4.50 ERA

5. Suppan 4.75 ERA

 

That right there is not a bad rotation. It is about league average. Our offense should improve from the previous year as we have a lot of our players entering their prime. I would expect improvements from Weeks, Fielder, Braun, Hart, and Hall for next season. Hardy should remain about the same. We'll have Cameron for an entire season which is nice too.

 

We stayed in the playoff chase last season with a rotation of:

 

1. Sheets

2. Parra

3. Bush

4. Suppan

5. McClung

 

I think that Looper would be better than McClung and could go more innings, which would lead to a more rested bullpen. Gallardo may not be quite as good as Sheets, but Looper should be a nice step up from McClung so it balances out. If our offense takes a small step up from last season, I don't see how this isn't a team that couldn't compete for a Wild Card spot.

 

Also, Steve, Suppan is no 6. The guy has not had an ERA over 5 as a Brewer. If you look around the league he would be at least a 5, if not a 4. McClung is probably an average 5 if you look at the average numbers coming out of the 5 spot of the rotation of the average club.

[JoeHova]

Also, Steve, Suppan is no 6. The guy has not had an ERA over 5 as a Brewer. If you look around the league he would be at least a 5, if not a 4. McClung is probably an average 5 if you look at the average numbers coming out of the 5 spot of the rotation of the average club.

 

 

Here are the average performances (in ERA+) of the starting positions on playoff teams:

#1 135

#2 115

#3 105

#4 95

#5 83

 

Judging by that, I would say bklynbrewcrew's assessment of having plenty of 4/5 types is right on the money. You could argue that the Brewers have at least 7 guys who are likely to be between 105 and 83 (Suppan, Bush, Villy, McClung, Dillard, DiFelice & Parra) if they are used as starters. Galardo is the only one that is a good bet to exceed that and even he isn't a sure thing (being only 23 and missing 80% of last season). I would agree with all the assessments that a #1/2 is a far more pressing need than a back of the rotation guy, which doesn't really seem to be much of a need to me at all. Obviously #1/2 guys cost more, but that doesn't mean that if they can't get one they should throw money away on a commodity they have plenty of already (backend starting).

[Tbadder]

I was listening to Duquette on XM this morning and he expects Looper to sign with Baltimore. Just a rumor of course.

[MillerParkSouth]

I like this as a depth move, but not if we have to give him multiple years.

[strawbossisevil]

Look, I'm not saying that it wouldn't be better for the Brewers to sign a guy who could fit into the #1/#2 spot on our team. But who is actually affordable that would fit into that role?

 

Lowe is going to be too expensive for us and has benefited from his stadium quite a bit, just not worth the money he'll cost us. So he's out. I've been hoping for Randy Johnson on a one year deal, but he has stated he wants to play out West, so signing him could happen but it isn't exactly likely. Odalis Perez isn't an answer because he actually had worse numbers than Looper and would be more expensive. Sheets doesn't seem to want to come back to the Brewers, so he is likely out. Penny likely still has problems with his arm (thus the reason he wasn't offered arby) so he won't likely be that #1 or #2 we need.

 

What does that leave us? Who could we sign to an affordable deal that will be that #1 or #2? I will still hope for Johnson, but if we can't get him Looper seems as good an option as any.

 

I would also hope that the Brewers take a flier on Mulder if he could come cheaply. He'll be very cheap, but also has the potential to be a top of the rotation guy.

[Fatter than Joey]

What does that leave us? Who could we sign to an affordable deal that will be that #1 or #2? I will still hope for Johnson, but if we can't get him Looper seems as good an option as any.

 

Looper is coming off a 3yr $13M deal -- I don't think he needs to take a paycut -- He made $5.5 last year -- He is probably inline for a 3yr $24M deal at least.

 

The problem is, is that while there may not be a good 1/2 this year, there may be one next year. Getting into another Suppan contract would not be a good thing.

[strawbossisevil]

In the current market, I seriously doubt that Looper makes $24 million over 3 years. I think he'll be somewhere in the area of two years for $6 million per. Looper also should be a better pitcher than Suppan.

[Fatter than Joey]

In the current market, I seriously doubt that Looper makes $24 million over 3 years.

 

I guess we could bet a soda on this http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif -- I don't think Looper will get $8M in 2009, but I do think that he will get close to $25M

 

I think he'll be somewhere in the area of two years for $6 million per.

 

He just came off a 3 year deal, where he made $5.5 last year -- I don't see him treading water.

 

Looper also should be a better pitcher than Suppan

 

Probably, but Looper is not going to replace Suppan in the rotation. We could sign two #3's tomorrow -- and Suppan would still be in the rotation. As long as Suppan is a Brewer (and not hurt), he is going to be in the rotation.

[strawbossisevil]

Looper is entering his age 34 season, he is no spring chicken. For that reason I don't see him getting much of a raise over the 5.5 million that he was at. I also don't see him getting any longer than two seasons for the same reason.

 

And as far as comparing him to Suppan, you made the comparison, saying we'd be adding another Suppan like contract. The only problem with that thinking is that Looper is better than Suppan and will be much cheaper. He'll probably come at a fair price in this current market, unlike Suppan who we got in a ridiculous market with a bloated contract.

[Fatter than Joey]

The only problem with that thinking is that Looper is better than Suppan and will be much cheaper. He'll probably come at a fair price in this current market, unlike Suppan who we got in a ridiculous market with a bloated contract.

 

Fair enough -- all I was saying, is that I would rather pass, and reload this time next year for a 1/2, than get tied down with someone who helps the back end of our rotation.

[kramnoj]

There aren't a whole lot of 1/2 pitchers that will be on the market in 2010. Per Cots, here is the list right now. Any players with an asterisk have an option for 2010:

 

Brandon Backe HOU

Miguel Batista SEA

Josh Beckett * BOS

Erik Bedard SEA

Jose Contreras CWS

Doug Davis ARZ

Justin Duchscherer OAK

Adam Eaton * PHI

Kelvim Escobar LAA

Rich Harden CHC

Tim Hudson * ATL

John Lackey LAA

Cliff Lee * CLE

Jason Marquis CHC

Brett Myers PHI

Vicente Padilla * TEX

Brad Penny LAD

Joel Pineiro STL

Jason Schmidt LAD

Jarrod Washburn SEA

Brandon Webb * ARZ

Todd Wellemeyer ST

 

One can certainly make the argument that money should be held back to save for extending the Brewers own young players, or to make a play for a trade that may happen, but I personally wouldn't save any money for the players in the above list. There are some decent names on there, but I wouldn't count on the Brewers being able to sign them for what the Brewers would consider a market deal.

[strawbossisevil]

How do we know that a 1/2 will be available to us next year though? Next year the market could be on a rebound and a number of bigger market teams with bigger wallets could take sign the 1/2 who are available. Also, a number of the "1/2" starters could get contracts from their current teams before or during the current season.

 

On top of that the 1/2 types would have to want to come to Milwaukee, which has been a problem that Milwaukee has had recently as well. This offseason the only 1/2 that I see in the Brewer's price range is Johnson, and he is there because he is older and unlikely to require a long term contract.

 

This is how every off-season goes, people always saying, "just wait until the next one" because so and so will be available, then they are either signed by a big wallet club or don't want to come to Milwaukee.

[JoeHova]

This is how every off-season goes, people always saying, "just wait until the next one" because so and so will be available, then they are either signed by a big wallet club or don't want to come to Milwaukee.

 

We are seeing the effects of not waiting right now. They signed Suppan and his contract is directly preventing the team from trying to re-sign a far superior pitcher in Ben Sheets. The only choices don't have to be either: 1) blow money on anybody who will sign on the dotted line, or 2) spend no money. There are other options, which include re-signing their own players, trading for a player who is already signed, using the money on the draft/international signings, etc. The Brewers have to be a lot smarter with their money than a lot of teams do. It's unfortunate, but it's just how it is in baseball. If Attanasio would spend like Herb Kohl does and has, it wouldn't be as much of a problem to have deadweight on the roster, but he won't and probably can't. Plus, Herb's drunken sailor spending hasn't helped much anyway, you have to be smart about your money no matter what your budget is and having your 4th and 5th starter making $20 million when your payroll is $75 million doesn't seem smart.