Would you sign Derek Lowe for 3/50 ?

[TwinsBrewersWorldSeries]

According to Buster Olney, Lowe's original request of 5/90 is in his words "down by a third". Olney also mentions that if the Yankees aren't in on the bidding that the price may fall even further. I believe it was mentioned somewhere within another thread that Lowe should be offered 4/60, and i think it was quickly highlighted that Lowe wouldn't even consider that. However, given our hesitation to go more than 3 years, Lowe's apparent brush with reality, and the fact that we still need a pitcher, who would be on board for a 3/50 offer?

EDIT- Oops- wrong forum. Mods please move to the trade/proposals forum. Thanks- TBWS

Edit: Spelling of Derek

[trwi7]

I would in a second.

[ILuvDaBush]

Effectively $16.5M over 3 years? He doesn't deserve that! He doesn't deserve 3yr/$37M that K-Rod signed. Now 3yr/$33M I could be behind. But as the article mentions, there are not many teams willing to commit big dollars over multiple years. We, on the other hand, do have a good amount of flexibility, given our youth (and fact that we control most of our young players for at least 2-3 years). How many teams are in on D-Lowe? The Yankees are all but assured of getting Pettitte. The Red Sox and Mets are efficiently using their vast amounts of cash, and both those teams also have a lot of payroll flexibility on top of that. The LA teams are both looking for offense. The Tigers are stretched. The Cubs have no interest and the White Sox (who I thought may be a dark-horse) have even less interest.

[MNBrew]

Interpreting Olney's report, 5 yrs. & $90M = $18M/yr. Down by a third = $12M/yr. Sounds like a K-Rod deal (3 yrs, $37M) is the best he could hope for, and even that may be dropping.

 

I'm still not sure I do that deal, especially if we could land Smoltz &/or Johnson for ~$8M each. That's probably a pipe dream, but the positive veteran influence/mentor factor could be outstanding, which has definite appeal. Sheets returning for a year has distinct appeal, too, compared to Garland and some of the other potential Suppan types out there.

 

Lowe generally doesn't excite me that much. On the other hand, it's hard to feel like I know as much about how he's pitching the past few years because he's played on the West Coast.

[TwinsBrewersWorldSeries]

I took the "dropping of the price by 1/3" to mean that he is looking for a $60M deal (as opposed to $90). I think the agents have realized that 5/90 was a pipe dream. I think he'd reduce his per year by a chunk (say down to 3), OR (with that being the key word), reduce the $$$/deal, but not both.

 

His past four years are ERAs of 3.61, 3.63, 3.88, and 3.24. His WHIPs have been 1.25, 1.26, 1.26, and 1.25. His only disadvantage is his age (turns 36 during the 2009 season). He is the definition of consistency (3+ Era), and an outstanding WHIP. His numbers are basically a mirror image of Ben Sheets, and Lowe has the advantage of not having the injury history (Ben is five years younger).

 

We'd have to pay more per year (for a three year deal), but given the fact that his innings load wasn't high until Age 29, and given how solid his numbers have been four years in a row, I think we'd get very good production out of Lowe in a three year deal.

 

Is he worth $16-17m per year? In this economy? I'm not sure, but at 3/50 he's a STEAL compared tot he CC and Burnett contracts. I think most her e would be very supportive of offering Ben Sheets 3/50, though he'd be a bigger risk with his injury history.

 

To me, as the economy continues to shrink budgets, and the teams bidding for Lowe's services, he'd be a steal at 3/50 and we should go get em.

[ILuvDaBush]

Imagine Gamel at 3B with Lowe on the mound...

[BrewCrewForever]

I like Lowe a lot, but he is going to get a contract that he is not worth. And there is not much of a chance the Brewers would be the team to give him that. But Boras thinking he could get 5 years $90 mill is just nuts.

[TooLiveBrew]

Would you sign Derrek Lowe for 3/50?

 

No.

 

He's already old enough that imo a 3-yr. deal in principle is problematic. And aside from that it seems he's only realistically available for the BoSux

[Tbadder]

No. If I were Doug Melvin I'd do my best Ted Thompson imitation and just say the heck with free agents. Lowe is too old for that kind of money. For all the teams' use of statistical analysis nowadays why they haven't figured out that ballplayers above 35 are a bad investment is beyond me.

 

On the other hand Boras sits at the lefthand of Satan, and if his clients don't get what he thinks they should, he'll probably sue the league for collusion and win.

[KCBrewerfan34]

Just a sidenote, is Boras losing his touch or is this his strategy to start outrageous (Lowe, Varitek & Manny) and settle for above average or below. Remember the AROD fiasco, basically AROD had to settle the deal himself.

[Invader3K]

Call me crazy, but I think I would take a chance on Lowe. I think 50 million would be a bit high, but if we could get him for 3 years, and 12-13 million per year, I think it could be worth it. I don't recall him having much of an injury history, and he's definitely solid. You can't expect him to be a #1 at this point, but he could be a solid #3 type going forward.

[yount19.u]

No. Given his age, 2 years should be the max offered to Lowe. Someone will definitely give him more years and that will be a team that can afford to absorb those couple of years of Lowe's performance dropping off a table. A team like the Brewers can ill-afford to have another Suppan on its hands after Soup's contract expires.

[JohnBriggs12]

Lowe is not worth $16.7 million per year. Especially not in this market. Invader3K numbers are closer to his true value but I think he's looking elsewhere.

[Ennder]

I probably would, I'd rather have him than Sheets or Burnett most likely. His profile of pitching is one that generally ages very well and thrives no matter the ballpark he pitches in. His tERA fully supports the ERA so there isn't a fluke at how good he has been. Lowe is a pretty solid #2 type pitcher which is what we could really use.

 

Our IF defense could hurt him a bit of course.

[KCBrewerfan34]

With our payroll situation I would love to but it would probably be smarter to go #3 or #4 starter and closer.

 

A combo of Fuentes & Looper probably has a better impact than Lowe, Lowe is older & then who closes?

[silversurferr]

No. Use the money to sign our younger players. Lowe is the kind of guy you trade for at the all star break.

[brewerguy71]

Yes.

 

I would sign him in a heartbeat to that amount. Despite his age, he has proven his durabilty and value. He would instantaneously become the best pitcher on the Brewer staff if they picked him up.

 

Unfortunately, he wouldnt come here. The coasts are his fit. Doesnt seem like Boras likes to send his clients to places like Milwaukee, or Cleveland, or St. Louis as free agents.

[Invader3K]

Yes.

 

I would sign him in a heartbeat to that amount. Despite his age, he has proven his durabilty and value. He would instantaneously become the best pitcher on the Brewer staff if they picked him up.

 

Unfortunately, he wouldnt come here. The coasts are his fit. Doesnt seem like Boras likes to send his clients to places like Milwaukee, or Cleveland, or St. Louis as free agents.

Unless it's a reclamation project like Gagne, then Milwaukee is just fine.

[sheetskout]

I agree with those who would not sign him. I would rather have a flyer year on Sheets. Lowe isn't the worst we could do though, but I think it'll be a circus having the leagues second-best groundball pitcher in front of Weeks, Fielder, and Hall.

[Invader3K]

I agree with those who would not sign him. I would rather have a flyer year on Sheets.

Well, it seems more likely we could get Lowe at this point than Sheets...but I think neither of them will realistically be playing in Milwaukee in '09.

[strawbossisevil]

Agreed Invader, we can dream about signing one of those two, but I don't think its being realistic.

[Boy Jeenius]

Well, let's ask the Mets. They appear to be close to signing him today, per XM radio reports.

 

edit: add source

[TwinsBrewersWorldSeries]

http://www.baseballthinkf...ke_3_year_offer_for_lowe/

I would offer 3/36 in a heartbeat. cmon Doug, are we going to let every decent player that could help our team at a reasonable price slip away?

[TooLiveBrew]

Derek Lowe at age 38 or so at $12M is probably not a reasonable price. Unfortunately I think Suppan's contract has Melvin's hands tied.

[JohnBriggs12]

Derek Lowe at age 38 or so at $12M is probably not a reasonable price. Unfortunately I think Suppan's contract has Melvin's hands tied.

If Melvin was seriously considering 45 year old Randy Johnson (who signed for 1 year at $8 million), and 46 year old Jamie Moyer (who got 2 years $13 million), he should have no problem with Lowe who will be 36-38 over the life of a 3 year deal. As for his hand being tied, didn't he offer CC $100 million?

 

$12 million for Lowe is reasonable as is a 3 year deal.