Analyzing Doug Melvin's career transactions with Brewers

[DougJones43]

Well Melvin was smart enough to keep Jack Z before any of Jack's draft picks showed major league production. A lot of gms clean house when they get the job and pick their own people. Doug should get credit for that.

True. My point was that I don't think Melvin's player signings/trades (outside of Sabathia) had very much to do with the Brewers' success in 2008.

[PeaveyFury]

True. My point was that I don't think Melvin's player signings/trades (outside of Sabathia) had very much to do with the Brewers' success in 2008.

 

Cameron, Kendall, Torres, and Bush all had a large part in the Brewers' success last year, IMO.

[Ennder]

Cameron was one of the most valuable signing of the 2008 off-season. If you take the difference in defense between Braun at 3B and LF, Hall in CF vs 3B and Cameron replacing Menchkins you get something like a 5-6 win improvement for the team. Without signing Cameron this team doesn't make the playoffs last year. Same with the trade for Torres most likely since the race was so close. Heck a case can even be made that the Mota for Estrada trade got us in the playoffs, Mota was about a game above replacement and the Mets had replacement level RP on their team. If they keep Mota and we have some scrub we easily could have fallen 1 game short while the Mets went.

 

Most of our returning players from 2007 to 2008 had worse seasons in 2008, Gallardo got hurt and we still improved by 7 games. A few of those games were Sabathia but most of them were the off season improvements.

[Bikeage77]

07/20/08 - Acquired INF Ray Durham from San Francisco for OF Darren Ford and LHP Steve Hammond; Optioned INF Joe Dillon to Triple-A Nashville.

 

How important was this pick up? I'd like to think it goes a little unnoticed because it was only a bench guy, but he did help in winning the last game of the season. Hitting a double late in the game, reaching 3rd on a smart baserunning move, and then ultimately scoring the tying run from a Counsell walk. It was also a defensive upgrade over Weeks.

[joepepsi]

Cameron had essentially the same season as Torii Hunter. The Brewers paid him $7 million. The Angels paid Hunter $16 million. Over the course of their contracts Cameron will be paid $17 million, Hunter $90 million. Just by this comparison, signing Cameron was a brilliant move.

[hawing]

07/20/08 - Acquired INF Ray Durham from San Francisco for OF Darren Ford and LHP Steve Hammond; Optioned INF Joe Dillon to Triple-A Nashville.

 

How important was this pick up? I'd like to think it goes a little unnoticed because it was only a bench guy, but he did help in winning the last game of the season. Hitting a double late in the game, reaching 3rd on a smart baserunning move, and then ultimately scoring the tying run from a Counsell walk. It was also a defensive upgrade over Weeks.

Not to mention, that game ending double play. "Durham, to Hardy...to first!"

Imagine if Rickie had bobbled that ball. Ow, my soul.

[LouisEly]

One transaction that has not been mentioned that could have been the missing link to his master plan if not for an unfortunate event:

 

Traded Brian Wolfe for Corey Koskie

 

Think about it - Koskie was the left-handed hitting, solid defense 3B that they have been looking for. Only 33 at the time of the trade, he had an OPS of .833 when he suffered the concussion (2007 looked to be an aberration as he posted over .800 OPS every year as a starter in Minnesota). That was perhaps the missing piece of the puzzle, and had it not been for a freak accident, could have had a significant effect on the fortunes of the 2007 and 2008 seasons. Wolfe has been very good in limited bullpen action, but for an every-day, left-handed hitting 3B, it is a steal.

 

Then again, a health Corey Koskie probably means no Russell Branyan.

[BrewCrewForever]

Really love the Villanueva trade. One of my favorites. Villa has been great out of the pen, very reliable.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

This is the best thread I've read in the forums this offseason. Good stuff. I remember the "Fire Doug Melvin" thread in September when the team was collapsing, but when we step away from the battle field and look at all the things Melvin's done, he warrants top 10 GM status in the entire Major Leagues if not better. If you can name 10 better GM's than Melvin, you're stretching.

[lukevan]

Then again, a health Corey Koskie probably means no Russell Branyan.

 

And maybe another year of Bill Hall in CF and no Mike Cameron. I fully agree with your point, though, having Koskie around would've been excellent. He was a top flight 3B if you include his defense.

[sgtcluels]

There's a lot to praise DM for, but he's also got some negatives that seem to be ignored. I wouldn't say DM is elite, I think that negates all that Jack Z has done for the organization (Lets not forget how much of our success is due to his farm club build). DMs judgment in the past 2 years has been a little questionable in my eyes. If the Brewers would have missed the playoffs after we gave up LaPorta (biggest off season bargaining chip), i would have said that was a complete and utter bust by DM. Remember, DM said the trade was to get us to the promised land. No more, no less. Imagine what we could do right now with LaPorta.

 

Suppan contract makes me wonder, add in a dash of not firing Yost (The owner had to do it) a few other noggin scratching moves, and most importantly, not hanging up on Cashman the minute he suggested we take Ken Igowa and his billion dollar contract, makes me wonder what he's thinking at times. I'm not calling for him to be fired, I just think we may look past the negatives and only see roses because of the farm system and it's strengths (Which may be coming to and end soon enough.)

[LouisEly]

I'll counter that point by saying what if Melvin had not made the trade for Sabathia and the Brewers had not made the playoffs last year? How irate would the fan base be? Two sides to that story, and to me it is a lose-lose situation: if he makes the trade he gives up the top prospects, but if he doesn't make the trade they don't make the playoffs. What is he supposed to do?

 

Personally I think the outstanding coverage of the minors and prospects on this website has made some people (not pointing at you specifically) overvalue the minors and prospects and undervalue the performance of the big league club. Ultimately the performance of the big-league club is what matters. The revenue generated by the big league club funds the entire organization, so the big league club needs to be financially profitable, and that means winning games and competing for the playoffs.

[Invader3K]

I definitely agree with you, LouisEly. Sometimes it seems like people on this forum want to hold onto all of our minor league prospects no matter what, because at least one of them could develop into the next superstar. I get the thinking, but sometimes you have to take a risk and go for it, or you're always going to be saying "When is it our turn?"

[Boy Jeenius]

IMO, the attitude towards player development is dramatically changed for the better under Doug Melvin's tenure. This need to be recognized as a "good move." Yes Jack Z gets a lot of credit and deservedly so. But now we have Reed Nichols in charge of player development. Each player has their own path of development and no one is promoted beyond their capability to handle their new environment. Minor leaguers get late season promotions, so tey can experience the playoffs. The pitchers have all been brought along slowly and cautiously. The position players all had their own path. Years ago Parra, Gallardo, Escobar, La Porta and Gamel would all have been up here for a year or more, and probably been destroyed in the process. Jeffress and Cain would have been next to be destroyed. Jack finding the players was great, but the steady path of development they each have been given should not go unnoticed.

[ILuvDaBush]

(cough) Bill Hall (cough). I sometimes wonder what might have been had we kept him at shortstop (and traded an undervalued JJ) or traded him at his 30+ HR peak. As Branch Rickey always opined, "Better to trade a player a year too early than a year too late." As another hypothetical, does anyone wonder how good our AAA team would be next year if not for the CC trade? It's neither here nor there, but I do remember Gammons saying that the AA team was the most talented minor league team he had ever witnessed.

 

Overall, however, The 'stachioed One continues to keep us on a good, long term course of success.

[Crewin06]

I wonder how good the AAA team would be if we wouldn't have done the Linebrink trade.

 

Thatcher was great in 2007 better than Linebrink. In 2008 he struggled but it would still be nice to have him this year for organizational bullpen depth.

 

However it would be rediculously nice to have Inman and Garrison in AAA this season. They aren't world beaters or top of the rotation pitchers right now but Inman had a 3.52 ERA last year and Garrison had a 3.82 ERA at 21 years old in AA. Inman and Garrison would be perfect injury depth this season and possible back of the rotation/bullpen depth next year. The picks used from the Linebrink trade netted Evan Fredrickson and Cutter Dykstra.

 

As for an underrated trade I would point to Grant Balfour for Seth McClung. Balfour was rediculously good for Tampa last season but he was out of options and the Brewers didn't have the patience for him after throwing him to the fire right away. McClung has been very good for the Brewers.

[Invader3K]

I know this is an unpopular opinion around here, but I will never care how well the AAA and AA teams are doing. They could be in last place for all I care. I've never been to a Nashville Sounds game, and possibly never will be to on. I've been to dozens, if not a couple hundred Brewers games over my past 20 years as a fan. Trading away minor league talent to improve the Brewers is the best thing they can do, IMHO.

[Crewin06]

I guess everyone is entitled to their own opinion. Invader but sooner or later the talent will end up in Milwaukee. I don't care about the win loss record but I definitely want talent at the AAA level. I would be upset if 3 years ago the Brewers traded Ryan Braun for a 3 month rental of a reliever. And right now I am kind of upset that we traded organization pitching depth that could really help this season for a so-so middle reliever that left after 3 months and prospects that probably won't see the majors for 4 years if ever.

[LouisEly]

Certainly they need to focus on developing pitching talent, however neither Inman nor Garrison would be able to help in 2009. Inman had a 3.50 ERA last year, but his 1.40WHIP, GO/AO of 0.8, and 71 walks in 135 innings suggests that he is nowhere near ML ready, and those numbers do not translate well at all in Miller Park. Also, he basically regressed in the walks department despite having spent over half of 2007 in AA. Inman is living off of legend right now - he is just not as good as people think he is based on 1.4 years of A-ball numbers and one great interview quote. Garrison profiles better than Inman, but is not ready to make the jump either. He didn't exactly light AA on fire either, and it is highly likely that he repeats AA this year.

 

The bigger point is that if Melvin had not made the trade for Linebrink (or any other bullpen arm), he would have been roasted for doing nothing to help the team get into the playoffs. They needed bullpen help and he went out and got it. People can say, "He didn't do enough in the offseason prior to the season to have to make that trade", but it doesn't matter if it happens during the season or in the offseason, in order to acquire major league players you have to give something up - either big contracts for free agents or prospects in trade. Pick your poison.

 

Let's wait 3 or 4 years for Inman/Garrison/the draft picks to develop before really judging this trade.

[Invader3K]

Crewin06, I get what you're saying. I obviously understand the connection between minor league talent being the future of the club. I'm just not going to fret that much if the AAA team is not that stocked right now. Eventually those AA guys will make their way to Nashville, and they will succeed or fail.

 

Inman, Thatcher, and Garrison, while all nice young players, are three guys that will probably never be big impact guys at the MLB level. I'm just not going to be torn up about the fact that they're not with the Brewers organization anymore. That said, in retrospect, I do think I would have rather not done the Linebrink deal, simply because it didn't really have any positive effect on the big league club. Anyway, part of it is cyclical...for a couple years the Nashville club was probably overloaded with talent...eventually those guys made it to "the show" and it's going to take a while for the next crop to come up.

[Crewin06]

Man Inman and Garrison's struggles are news to me. I would figure that players that ranked 4th and 7th in their league in ERA would definitely get a bump. Inman lead the Texas League in K's and was 4th in all of AA. Never mind the fact that they were 2 of the younger players in AA. I am not saying that these two are going to be aces some day but with the lack of starting pitching in the Brewers system right now these two guys could probably break into the big leagues in the next year or two and hold down a back of the rotation spot and grow into solid Major League pitchers that the Brewers would control cheaply for the better part of a decade.

[Mass Haas]

I'm going to give you all a Doug Melvin "hit" and "big miss" all on the same player that I can pretty much guarantee hasn't been discussed in detail online before.

 

On June 7th of 2004, Melvin acquired OF Peter Bergeron and RHP Saul Rivera from Montreal for C Jason Belcher and RHP Jason Childers.

 

Bergeron had seen significant big league AB's as a very young outfielder with Montreal, but had fallen to AAA fodder with the Brewers' Indianapolis club that year. Belcher was once the "catcher of the future", and is still toiling in indy ball, I believe. Jason Childers was wrapping up a long stint as a Brewer farmhand, and would have a cup of big league tea with Tampa Bay in '06.

 

But the interesting name in the deal, as it turns out, was the RHP-tiny 5'11", 155 lb. Rivera, who posted a 1.64 ERA in 26 games in Huntsville. Rivera was 26 years old at the end of that season, and was wrapping up his 7th minor league year, having been drafted out of Puerto Rico as a 9th rounder by the Twins in '98.

 

So the Brewers would have had to have had the foresight to add Rivera, who had never pitched above AA, to their 40-man roster after the '04 season in order to maintain his services. Or, more likely, they could have approached him about re-signing a minor league deal with incentives like a big league spring training invite.

 

But neither happened, and Rivera re-signed with Montreal, the organization that had just traded him away, after the '04 season.

 

So after yet another AA season in '05, Rivera works his way to the big league Nationals early in the '06 season, and what a successful workhorse he's been while toiling at or just above league minimum for three seasons, posting ERA's of 3.43, 3.68 and 3.96 respectively (his age 28-29-30 seasons), allowing only eight home runs in 237.1 innings.

 

Among Brewer "ones that got away" alumni in recent seasons, no one has been nearly as productive.

 

So here's to Doug Melvin for acquiring him, here's not to Doug Melvin for letting him walk, and here's to Saul Rivera for proving little RHP's can be successful.

 

Saul Rivera Baseball Reference Page

Scouting Report

Assets	Has a rubber arm, and is capable of being used several days in a row and for long outings when needed. Pitches with plenty of guile.
Flaws	Doesn't have a true strikeout pitch, and struggles with his control from time to time--which leads to big innings.
Career potential	A quality middle reliever.

[Ennder]

Rivera is as much a product of that park as anything though, hard to really knock someone for losing what is a pretty average RP. Looking deeper at his numbers he is pretty much completely a product of a fluky HR/FB%, something that happens constantly over 200 IP samples. Below average walk rates and on adequate K rate for a RP combined with a decent GB% makes him a pretty mediocre RP who had a little luck with his ERA.

 

Here is an article I found today about 2008 FAs.

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors...8/12/2008-free-agent.html

 

Melvin came out +$20M in value between Cameron, Branyan and Kendall last year and Cameron was the 2nd best value FA.

[danzig6767]

Nice catch Haas on Rivera, i had never even heard of the guy until your post

[BrewCrewForever]

That is amazing Hass, I never knew a single thing about Rivera. I do remember hearing about Bergeron though.