How do you feel about the rotation (as presently constituted)?

[RU Rah Rah]

This issue seems to keep coming up in various pitching and FA-related threads, and I can't say that I'm entirely convinced, one way or the other. I think Yo, Manny, Bush, Suppan, and McClung have to the potential to be just fine -- all of them certainly have the potential to throw 150+ decent innings. But I also think they have the potential to collectively implode -- Bush and Suppan were horrible at times last year, McClung is a retread who couldn't even nail down the #5 spot last year, and none of them has proven to be in the same class as CC and Sheets. (Really, only Manny had a good season as a starter last year.)

 

Is this a serious issue or no? Will they be competent?

[Ennder]

It is definitely a concern. I'd like to see someone 'decent' signed just so McClung becomes the backup due to injuries and not the plan.

[joepepsi]

I think it's pretty serious. I'd like to see them take a flyer or two out one of these schlubs looking for work that weren't offer arbitration. But I'd also like to see pick up some younger guy who can work into the rotation. Maybe he starts in AAA but can come up and be better than McClung in early summer. I don't expect them to sign one of the bigger name free agents, unless Sheets can be persuaded back.

[crewcrazy]

I'm a little concerned, but I'm not about to write off this upcoming season as a 90-loss year. The Phillies just won the World Series with a rotation of Cole Hamels and scraps. Granted, they had guys like Myers and Blanton get hot in the postseason, but for most of the year their starting pitching wasn't phenomenal and they were still very competitive. Like Ennder, though, I'd like to see some injury protection, because we don't really know how Yo is going to hold up in a full season following his injury and Parra has a history of getting hurt or at least wearing down.

 

I just hope that injury insurance doesn't come in the form of a $50 million deal to Jon Garland.

[BrewCrewForever]

I think Gallardo, Parra, Bush and Suppan are fine. But we need someone to insert ahead of Gallardo or right behind him between him and Parra. I like McClung a lot, but more out of the bullpen. I'm still hoping Sheets has no other real options and ends up signing with the Brewers. Other wise I hope we can land Wolf, Johnson or Smoltz as a number 2 behind Gallardo.

[owbc]

I agree with the concern about McClung. He's gotten lots of hype because he stepped up big in a pennant race game, but he was inconsistent the rest of the year and usually didn't pitch more than 5 or 6 innings at a time.

 

Not only that, we're counting on Gallardo as our #1 and he's never pitched a full season in the big leagues. Parra had too many innings last year--and we've seen what happened to the Tigers pitchers who were overworked.

 

I really would like to get another arm.

[trwi7]

I would like to get another solid arm (maybe Sheets re-signing) or Randy Johnson, someone like that and maybe another guy like Paul Byrd to eat some innings if they still have innings limits on Parra and Gallardo.

[bklynbrewcrew]

Im very concerned about this rotation. I love Gallardo but I hate the pressure he will be under as potentially the ace of the staff. I also like Parra but unless he becomes more consistent he is not a number two starter. Bush is Bush meaning he can be great and he can be terrible but overall ends up being servicable. I dont trust Suppan whatsoever and expect him to have a terrible season. McClung is way too wild to be ciunted on to ever be more than a 5 inning pitcher.

 

In my mind this rotation as currently constituted is average at best and below avergae more than likely. If we can somehow convince Ben to come back I would feel a lot more comfortable but as of now this rotation scares the heck out of me.

[Nottso]

Yo, Manny, Capuano, Bush, Suppan

 

McClung and Villanueva in the pen.

[RockCoCougars]

I think the rotation as it is constituted now is very subpar, and I don't like it one bit. Gallardo is definitely a potential future ace, but when your top two starters have less than 50 career starts combined, you have some problems. I'm not sold on Parra yet, considering how he hit the wall last year. Did he truly run out of gas, or did the league figure him out? Bush was sent to AAA for a period of time last year, so I wouldn't call him a solid three. Suppan is a negative, and shouldn't be in the rotation at all. Unfortunately, he will be run out there every fifth day in an attempt to justify his contract. McClung was solid for most of last year, but he is going to burn the bullpen every time he goes out there, because he generally doesn't pitch far into games.

 

Frankly, I want this team to come clean on why they are not pursuing Sheets, because it's starting to make me angry. You've got a guy who started the all-star game last year, and you don't even try to re sign him? Something smells funny here, and I think they owe the fans an explanation....

[Blindcheck]

I think McClung could end up being ahead of Suppan and Bush by the end of the year...I like his makeup as a starter and see a little Sheets in him.

 

I think we have 5 guys that could start and do well and keep us competitive...but you need 7 starters before spring training....

 

I also hope that Capuano makes a comeback and he might just be the spark to the rotation in the middle of the year....

[MessiahRp]

I don't think this rotation can win 80 games. I think we need to remember that Gallardo has never pitched a full Major League season, Parra wore down considerably last year, Suppan is garbage, Bush is inconsistent and McClung is not exactly someone we can count on to repeat 2008. I think spending 2 yr/$12 million on Brad Penny would be a good risk especially since he's an ace when he's healthy. We need a top line starter pretty bad.

 

Rp

[strawbossisevil]

Calling Suppan garbage is going a bit overboard. The guy dealt with some injuries last season and his numbers suffered a bit because of that. He still ended last season with an ERA under 5. If he manages to stay healthy he could have an ERA somewhere between 4.50 and 4.75 or so, and that is not bad for a middle of the rotation starter. I think many of us have soured so much on Suppan not because of his numbers, but because of his contract.

 

I think its interesting that people are predicting that he'll have an ERA well over 5 this next year. It's possible that they could be right, but when you consider that he pitched part of the last season hurting and still managed to post a sub 5 ERA, I think its far more likely he does better than that.

 

Where I am concerned is with the 5th spot in the rotation. I think we need someone in that spot who can post an ERA in the mid to upper 4s at the very least. I am rooting for the Brewers to get Randy Johnson, because I think that would be perfect for our team, plus we get the added bonus of having his countdown to 300 wins, which would be good for ticket sales. Plus, if we struggle out of the gate and it is clear we won't be in the WC or division race, he is the type of guy you can trade at the deadline and get some solid prospects back.

 

My projections for the rotation as it is right now are such:

 

Gallardo 3.50 ERA

Parra 4.25 ERA

Bush 4.40 ERA

Suppan 4.70 ERA (better than last season, but worse than the season before that)

McClung 5.20 ERA

 

If we added Johnson, I would expect him to have around a 4.00 ERA.

[GAME05]

i've been thinking the same thing, Strawboss. Suppan is the mark of consistency, and though he didn't really have it last year for a few reasons, i fully expect him to return to mediocre form next season.

 

i'm a little surprised at most peoples' thoughts about Gallardo, though. he's shown flashes of brilliance, but we're still talking about a young guy entering his first full season.

 

and sure, Parra really wore down last year, but what's to say he'll do it again? since he's young, i expect just the opposite, that he'll be stronger next season, and i'm expecting a slight improvement over this past season.

 

overall, though, maybe a quarter run worse in 09? i'm figuring a better mid-bullpen will be relied upon more and save us some runs. but couple that with my expected offensive improvement and i don't see any reason we can't have the same record as last year. and heck, add in a guy like Randy Johnson or another ok starter and our team shouldn't be all that bad. i'm certainly not the "welcome back, mediocrity" that a lot of pundits are so far.

 

plus Dillard was about our best callup last year, and who's to say we can't have someone who might step in and really perform well.

[lithium75]

Villanueva has had some success, and I wouldn't be surprized to see Brae Wright and David Welch get looks if some of the others fail. Remember a few years ago it was the unheralded Villanueva called up from AA who had the most success. All you really need is to have a couple of guys get hot. Yovani and Manny are young and need to progress and stay healthy, and Suppan could easily become a solid number 4. Bush has had good peripheral numbers, but has never put together a solid full season. He has stretches where he is lights out, and stretches when a high school team could hit him.

 

Baseball is a crapshoot. CC Sebathia was the best pitcher available at the trade deadline, and was the biggest fish in the free agncy pond. But, the CC that played in Milwaukee was the hottest CC that he has ever been. Look at his stats for us. His is very good, but not THAT good. Meaning we could have signed CC for a bunch of years and he probably would pitch those years at about a 2.70 to a 3.50 era. He would probably throw about 220-245 innings and strike a bunch of guys out.

 

But career numbers don't win championships. Like I said, all you need is for a couple of guys to get hot at the right times. This thread is about next year. Every year good players have bad years, bad players have good years, young kids have breakout years, stud rookies bomb or star, and every year there are nobody prospects that shock everyone by playing like all stars.

 

Stick Yo and Manny out there and hope they don't disappoint. If we are lucky, Yo will throw 200 innings with a 3.00 era and win 18. Manny throws 180 at 3.75 and wins 15. If we are really lucky, Bush will finally figures it out, and Suppan pitches better than he did last year. If we are lucky, they all stay healthy.

 

For the 5th starter I see McClung and Villanueva as possibilities. Villanueva failed last year, and McClung did better than anyone could have expected, so at the moment it appears as though McClung would be the current choice.

 

So at the moment, Gallardo, Parra, Bush, Suppan, and McClung are pencilled in. That is good enough to start with. Hopefully we can ge another starter somewhere because the team would be better with McClung in the pen, but at the moment we don't have any other realistic options. As injuries pile up, and as players fail, we do have other options. Wright appears to be good enough of a stopgap opyion to get us by for a little while. If we are still in it at the deadline, we do still have depth in the minors to make a deal to put us over the top. Our rotation at the moment isn't sexy, and won't wow anyone, but it is good enough to start with. We do have options. Just like everyone else, if our pitchers pitch well and stay healthy, we will win. If the pitch bad or get hurt, we will lose.

[ILuvDaBush]

Look at what the Cubs entered last season with and look what we're going to enter this season with.

 

Big Z v. YoGa-Aces with bats.

Hill v. Parra-Two young lefties, one power, one...who has a curveball. We all know how this tale of woe ended for the North-siders. Moving on...

Lilly v. Bush-Inconsistent pitchers, inconsistent results. Can be counted on for 180-200IP, with unpredictable results.

Marquis v. the Soup Nazi-Unsuccessful attempts at signing a solid FA pitcher. Give me Soup, however, or give me the torture of the Marquis de Sade.

Dumpster v. McClung/Villy (long-shot)-Former relievers who have had success in the rotation, though most people tend to be pessimistic about the results.

 

I'm just saying...

[Fatter than Joey]

I think our rotation (today) is a place for serious concern. We don't have a lot of AAA depth, and if someone like Parra or Bush gets scratched from a couple of starts we have big problems. Given our shaky defense, I don't feel real good about this group.

[joepepsi]

Where's Claudio Vargas when you need him?

[silversurferr]

I agree with Trwi; we need to sign Sheets or add The Unit. That being said, the other remaining free agents would not improve the rotation more than a young arm from our farm. Save the money: I am more concerned about the lack of a legit closer. I am hoping for a trade for BJ Ryan or a Fuentes signing. Otherwise its Villanueva and McClung. Yuck.

[BrewCrewForever]

If we sign Sheets or Johnson I would feel a lot better about the rotation. If we don't, I will be a little scared.

[logan82]

I think it is about average right now with Gallardo, Parra, Bush, Suppan and McClung. My big concern is that there is no way all those guys stay healthy. We need at least 2 guys as depth. If we could get a couple guys better than Suppan, I think we would be set.

[DHonks]

I have no problem with our current rotation. My issue is that we need AAA depth. I really don't like McClung in the bullpen, as he doesn't throw enough strikes most of the time.

[TheHappyYoungster]

I'm probably in the minority on this, but, I believe the success of the 2009 Brewers lies with the re-signing of Ben Sheets on a 1 or 2 yr. deal.

 

I state my case on my MLBlog.

[JohnBriggs12]

I have many concerns over this rotation but Parra stands out. He had just 10 quality starts last year mainly because he didn't go deep into games. That's not good for a 5th starter and he's talked about as if he's a number 2.

 

He'll be 26 this season. Youth can no longer be an excuse. He's got something like 740 professional innings. He needs to be a mature pitcher now, not down the road. I'm not sure he is and that worries me.

[JonnyLungs]

I think some people might be taking Suppan's health for granted. Sure, he might be able to go out there and pitch, but how effectively? I sure wouldn't want to count on a pitcher in his 30's that has developed some ailments that affected his performance in the previous year. Especially when said pitcher doesn't have the control to compensate for any downgrade of his stuff.

 

Suppan at the bottom of the rotation isn't necessarily a problem. Not having a viable plan B is a major problem. Carlos Villanueva is not a plan B, as that would only open up another hole in the bullpen, which also lacks depth.

 

While I've given up hope a dominant starter would be picked up, the pitching staff as currently constituted would only be fine in a world where injury and ineffectiveness doesn't strike. Anybody hoping that will be the case is being ridiculously optimistic.