Scary Quote from Melvin...?

[RU Rah Rah]

Also, I am surprised how many people bank on Gamel and Escobar being the future. Neither of them have much experience at AAA as of right now. I'm not saying they will be busts, but it can be dangerous expecting every prospect to be an impact player, especially right away.

I agree, esp. as it relates to Escobar and Hardy.

[TheCrew07]

Like when we were silly to bank on Fielder, Weeks, Hardy, Yo, and Braun?

 

I get that many people around here don't follow MiLB and don't seem to respect/value prospects, but I wonder why? In the current economic setup of baseball prospects are the only way the Brewers can compete. We aren't going to sign any high priced, proven, top tier FA talent so we have to deal from a position of strength to plug our holes. Right now we are thin on pitching, in the future maybe we'll be thin on hitting., either way we'll need to move one for the other. The team needs to evaluate who will sign long term, get them locked in, and determine how to get the maximum value out of the rest (when to trade or let them walk for compensation).

 

If the talent is cycling down then draft picks aren't a horrible idea, but as the team currently is constructed I'd rather see hitters moved for pitching when their return will be the highest. I'll dispute the "creating a hole" notion as well, especially when trading Fielder... what's the bigger hole, another top of the rotation starter (with only an inconsistent Jeffress on the horizon) or replacing a premium offensive talent who negates most of his offense with his horrible defense? Defense that is so bad that it negatively affects the value of the other infielders and the pitchers? Consider for a moment how valuable Fielder would be if actually made his teammates better by saving them errors and getting more outs, instead of actually causing errors and giving outs away? I'm definitely a trend and maximizing value kind of guy, that's what I get into, and I realize that my way doesn't seem to work for other people. I just don't see the value in trying to trade Hardy as a 1 year rental, or Prince when he's only 2 years from FA and likely 2 years closer to being a DH, that's minimizing their trade value to other small market teams. Taking away possible destination will only decrease the possible return and I'm into keeping my options open. Offensive production will be replaced as other positions like C get upgraded down the road, a replacement doesn't necessarily have to be found for 2009.

 

These trades aren't 1 for 1... for example it's not Hardy vs Escobar... it's Hardy vs Escobar + a top of the rotation young starter. Runs prevented count just as much as runs created, and think many people disregard that portion of the deal. In Fielder's case his defense is so bad that I feel even Nelson at 1B + pitcher would be a vast improvement in the team long term. Yes the offensive production might drop off some in 2009, but as Salome/Lucroy, Green, and Gamel start contributing the offensive production will easily surpass what that one player we moved would have given us.

 

If the roster is constructed properly then all of the other things people want like Division Championships, Playoffs, and World Series appearances will take care of itself. Signing the pitchers on the FA market that the Brewers can afford to multi year contract limits the overall talent in the rotation and in a very real way limits how far the team will go in the playoffs. Good pitching > Good hitting, we should be building from the rotation, to the hitters, to the bullpen.

[Invader3K]

It's not that we don't value those guys...we do. It's just you can't assume that they are going to be impact player immediately. Yes, Fielder, Braun, and to an extent Gallardo, were great players immediately. Can you say the same for Hardy, Weeks, and Hart? Up until last year, some people were saying we should give up on Hardy.

 

I'm just saying, if you throw away this year, and wait for '10...what happens if Escobar and Gamel struggle? Then you trade Fielder or Hardy or whoever, and keep building, while the other guys get closer to free agency. It's a very dangerous propsition, in my mind.

[Ennder]

Escobar/Gamel are more in the Hardy/Hart class of prospects is the issue. Gamel is not a sure thing with the bat and is miserable in the field and Escobar could very well be below replacement level with the bat and if he is he will struggle to add value to the team with just the glove. Neither has played in AAA either so I don't see why we are considering them help for this season. Those guys are fill ins for injuries or for roster moves made in the next offseason, not starters for this season.

[TheCrew07]

Escobar/Gamel are more in the Hardy/Hart class of prospects is the issue.

 

Those guys are fill ins for injuries or for roster moves made in the next offseason, not starters for this season.

I would submit that's your opinion and not a statement of fact. They are on the same level as the guys that came before them, maybe BA won't have them ranked as high, but what has that ranking done for Weeks? I'm not sure when AAA became the level where MLB players are made but AA is the true test. Both players have been in the system long enough that they are past the point of being rushed, 1 more year of MiLB experience won't make that big of a difference either way. At some point the young kids are going to have to play and are always going to have to play for this team to remain competitive. There isn't enough money to do it any other way.

[Boy Jeenius]

The talk of Cameron's value with regards to how well the team is expected to do next season doesn't have to be looked at right now, as it can easily be addressed at the trading deadline. If it looks like a down year, he can be moved to a contender for a nice lower level prospect. If the year looks ok, then he can be a key component to another drive to the playoffs. IMO, it makes more sense to go about it that way, and decide when there is more data available

[Sheets4theHOF]

This is where the biggest disagreement is. Teams don't generally operate this way. The Marlins have been saving money for years, they should be able to have a payroll of $150M some year with all the money they have saved. But for whatever reason, it doesn't work that way.

I think it depends on the owner. Mark A. took a risk in the CC trade that the brewers might spend more money then they took in that season. Turns out they made a small profit, but if the brewers hadn't been profitable since the ownership change i have my doubts that Mark A. would have been as eager to roll the dice.

 

I agree that a lot of owners care more about lining their pockets with profit from their teams then how competitive they are. I don't think Mark A. is that type of owner though. He's made it clear that overall he wants the team to be profitable, but he isn't looking for the brewers to be a significant stream of revenue. He wants to put profits back into the franchise.

[Ennder]

I would submit that's your opinion and not a statement of fact

 

Obviously I can't see into the future to know what will ultimately be true but the majority of people who spend their time looking at minor league players classify them in the B to B+ range and not the A or A- range. Neither Gamel or Escobar are sure fire major league starting quality players according to the 'experts' right now. Escobar very well could be the next Adam Everett and Gamel could end being a Lyle Overbay type, good average, ok pop but can only play 1B or corner OF.

 

Weeks is a league average 2B btw, he just gets ragged on because he was an early pick in a pretty bad drafting class. He was also rushed to the majors somewhat and suffered finger and wrist injuries that can cripple a players career. Not exactly the best person to try to use to illustrate anything.

[kramnoj]

I think it depends on the owner. Mark A. took a risk in the CC trade that the brewers might spend more money then they took in that season.

 

I should have headed this off. There is a huge difference between going a little over budget to make a playoff push and not spending $10M one year so that you can go $10M over budget one year. I don't even think it's about lining owner's pockets. I think its about setting expectations. If you go over budget by $10M one year, fans and media will expect that is the new baseline for what budgets should be.

[pogokat]

Ennder---

 

While not all the experts agree on exactly how surefire they are, I would say the same was true for Braun and Fielder as well...

 

Escobar is actually underrated on this site compared to many major media outlets. He is a big time, top 25 MLB prospect. Gamel, maybe not, but Excobar definitely is...

[Ennder]

Fielder and Braun were considered sure fire offensive starters in the majors, there were no doubts about either of them. All of the doubts were on whether or not they could stick defensively anywhere.

 

I think Escobar is overrated on this site personally, I just don't think his bat is major league quality. His defense will get him a full time job I'm sure but I think the bat plays more like a Jack Wilson or Adam Everett which just doesn't excite me.

 

Sickels gave Gamel a B+ and Escobar a B.

Bpro gave the both 4 star ratings and listed them behind Braun, Fielder, Gallardo and said they have a nice group of prospects but not elite ones like the last few years.

 

I don't think they are as highly thought of in general as the last crop.

[sveumrules]

I think Escobar is overrated on this site personally, I just don't think his bat is major league quality. His defense will get him a full time job I'm sure but I think the bat plays more like a Jack Wilson or Adam Everett which just doesn't excite me.

adam everett | age 22 at aa | 263/343/434

jack wilson | age 21 at a/a+ | 319/362/431

ALCIDES | age 21 at aa | 328/363/434

 

adam everrett never had any noteworthy offensive seasons in the minors, so while the defensive comp makes sense i don't necessarily see the correlation offensively. jack wilson is a pretty interesting comparison for alcides as he had a pretty succesful minor league career, but he was pretty much a year older than alcides has been at every level so far. if alcides could consistently put up numbers like jack wilson's two "good" mlb seasons i wouldn't be too upset, but given his developement so far at a young age i see no reason why he couldn't consistenly post seasons slightly better than wilson's two lucky seasons. in 2009? probably not, but starting around 2010/11 i could see him really putting up some years.

[logan82]

I disagree that Escobar is underrated on this site. I think he just happens to play the same position as one of our best MLB players. There is also the fact that our team no longer sucks like it has in the past. I would say that people on this site rate Escobar higher, or at least a few do, since there are very few people who want Gamel up next year and several want to trade JJ and bring up Escobar. I know some of that is strengethening our team's pitching.

[BrewCrewForever]

It's not that we don't value those guys...we do. It's just you can't assume that they are going to be impact player immediately. Yes, Fielder, Braun, and to an extent Gallardo, were great players immediately. Can you say the same for Hardy, Weeks, and Hart? Up until last year, some people were saying we should give up on Hardy.

I was one who was ready to give up on Hardy. Now after his past two seasons I think I value him on this team only behind Braun and Gallardo and just ahead of Prince.