Scary Quote from Melvin...?

[Ennder]

Having what is a pretty subpar rotation with a pretty pathetic bullpen... aside from Villy does not instill confidence in anybody but the most rose colored glasses wearing fans... which all appear to be in this thread.

 

Unless the Crew picks up a real top of the rotation quality starter this team will be lucky to break .500 next year.

 

But again this is basically the same team that was over .500 before we traded for Sabathia last year. They aren't rose colored glasses it is not having a knee jerk reaction to losing players. Sheets, Sabathia and Torres combined to be about 11 wins over replacement last year. Gagne, Turnbow, Riske combined to be like 2 games below replacement. A healthy Gallardo probably is worth 2 wins over what he gave us last year.

 

So assuming the team does nothing but returns the rest of the players we are looking at 81 wins or more most likely. If we make a couple little signings here and there and a few players produce better than last year there is absolutely no reason to expect sub .500 out of the team. People just assume that single players help or hurt the team more than they really do.

[logan82]

Ennder, I think you forgot to put some wins back in for Gallardo.

[Principessa21]

I read that Melvin said that they had originally looked at moving Cameron to gain some flexibility on the pitching front but that is no longer such a need. I was confused because it implied to me that acquiring pitching in no longer a need, but I guess he feels that they can still get a pitcher without having to trade Cameron.

[MJLiverock]

Looking at RyDogg's comparison for Gallardo versus Sheets makes me even more leery of the Brewers pitching staff. In Gallardo's brief career his numbers aren't as good as what Sheets put up last year and I just don't think it is reasonable to expect Gallardo to come off an injury and pitch his first full season in the majors and put up as good of numbers as Sheets did last year. Expecting 200 innnings is probably a stretch, Parra couldn't do it last year and he didn't miss most of the previous season with an injury.

 

It is not impossible, I just don't see it as realistic.

 

As far as the Brewers first half last year being good enough for a wild card lead, well, it was half. Many teams can put together a few good months but the marathon of baseball tries to weed those factors out. Suppan and Sheets probably pitched above expectation during the April May and June which offsets some the collapse excuses for September. Even with the decent start the Brewers had to scratch and claw to make their way into the playoffs, including the incredible efforts by Sabathia and Braun winning games at the end, along with a collapse of the Mets. The Mets have addressed their bullpen issues. The Brewers have not really improved anywhere on the team and became significantly worse in the starting rotation.

 

As I showed even with Gallardo coming in the team still needs to address the roughly 24 starts of very good to elite pitching that is gone.

 

I can see expecting some improvement from Parra and even Bush and tried to incorporate those innings.

 

Offensively, can anyone expect more from Prince, Braun, Hardy, Cameron? They could but trying to be realistic leaves me thinking somewhere around where they were last year.

 

Hart maybe, he was so up and down, it wasn't just September, his OBP was terrible after May, I just don't where to project him. I wouldn't be surprised to see Kendall regress a little, Weeks maybe just what he has been, a guy who hits .250/.350/.400/.750. Leaving 3B as the one area of major improvement possibility but you have to believe Hall is going to improve off of last year and that Mike Lamb is going to contribute more that what Hall/Branyon did last year.

 

All this leads me to believe the offense will be about the same, some improvements in places, some remain the same, and some decline.

I think the Bullpen will be same or worse, remember it was pretty much right in the middle last year and the worst of any playoff team.

The rotation leads me to believe it will be 10-12 wins worse, putting the Brewers below .500 for the year.

 

All this is if the Brewers remain as is going into the season. Signings of guys like Nixon, Coffey, Duffy, dont' really change it. I can accept a rebuilding year as long as Melvin doesn't try to an convince me he really thinks this team can sniff the playoffs as is. I don't know what the free agent picture looks like for next year but I would think with the glut of good players on the market this year and salaries outside of Sabathia being lower than expectations this would be a good year to look around. Or maybe players hate Milwaukee and it doesn't matter what Melvin offers in which case the team maybe doomed to have one good year and hope to shoot for the moon every 5 years based on what the farm system and produce and maybe one big trade.

[TooLiveBrew]

Signings of guys like Nixon, Coffey, Duffy, dont' really change it.

 

I don't think those signings were intended to do anything but provide depth. Not intended to 'change it' in that respect imo.

[Ennder]

I'll add that I don't consider this a playoff roster, just not one that will be 'lucky to be .500'. It is something like an 81-84 win team if it stays pretty healthy.

[strawbossisevil]

Right, I see this team as its constructed now at or slightly above .500. The problem that comes into that is if we have to deal with any significant injuries in the rotation. Because I think 84ish wins is probably where we are at if everyone stays healthy. If someone gets hurt, especially Parra or Gallardo, we could be in some significant hot water.

[Mr QL]

I'd rather go into the season bare bones with what we have then spend 10 mil on a Randy Wolf/Jeff Suppan or with some overpaid scrub/washed up closer. Maybe we'll be mediocre but at least we won't be mediocre and overpaid. We got CC in the middle of the season last year so if we're competing by that time make a trade then.

[rluzinski]

Let's try a quick and dirty estimate for the starting rotation next year:

 

ZiPS Projections, 2009:

 

Gallardo: 3.71 ERA

Bush: 4.50 ERA

Parra: 4.57 ERA

Suppan: 5.04 ERA

 

Let's assume that they all have 180 P next year. That covers 720 IP. The average NL team got 932 IP from their starters, so let's add 200 IP at replacement level (5.5 ERA).

 

Brewer Ave: 4.79 ERA

 

Compared to:

 

NL 08' Ave: 4.47 ERA

NL 07' Ave: 4.65 ERA

NL 06' Ave: 4.66 ERA

--------------------------

4.59 ERA

 

Not terrible but not good.

 

Assuming that no one is added, My WAG is that the starting rotation is bad, the relief pitching a little below average and the offense above average. 78-80 wins?

[danzig6767]

Right, I see this team as its constructed now at or slightly above .500. The problem that comes into that is if we have to deal with any significant injuries in the rotation. Because I think 84ish wins is probably where we are at if everyone stays healthy. If someone gets hurt, especially Parra or Gallardo, we could be in some significant hot water.

That's as big a concern as anything

 

While all teams have to face the worry of a starting pitcher or two getting hurt, the Brewers don't look to have much of anything in AAA if someone missed a month or two. There is also the factor of what if one of Suppan, Parra, or Bush just go into a terrible funk or goes through a dead arm period? If you have some pitching depth, you can replace the guy for a few weeks if needed.

 

Our projected rotation if nobody significant is added already has a good amount of question marks, have an injury or two, or one of those guy under perform by quite a bit and the rotation could become a pretty big problem. Not only that, the closer role can get overrated to a degree, but i think sometimes to many just assume that whoever we throw in that role will do reasonably fine. That very well could end up being the case, but it wouldn't be some crazy stretch either for the closer role to be a big problem where lots of saves are blown in heartbreaking fashion, kinda like say what the Cardinals went through last year where every ninth inning was a potential train wreck.

 

I'm reasonably fine with the position players, but as the pitching staff sits right now at least, it would feel like walking across very thin ice if we were to go into the year with this as pretty much our staff. One wrong step and it could end up being huge trouble.

[Scooter1027]

Let's try a quick and dirty estimate for the starting rotation next year:

 

ZiPS Projections, 2009:

 

Gallardo: 3.71 ERA

Bush: 4.50 ERA

Parra: 4.57 ERA

Suppan: 5.04 ERA

 

Let's assume that they all have 180 P next year. That covers 720 IP. The average NL team got 932 IP from their starters, so let's add 200 IP at replacement level (5.5 ERA).

 

Brewer Ave: 4.79 ERA

 

Compared to:

 

NL 08' Ave: 4.47 ERA

NL 07' Ave: 4.65 ERA

NL 06' Ave: 4.66 ERA

--------------------------

4.59 ERA

 

Not terrible but not good.

 

Assuming that no one is added, My WAG is that the starting rotation is bad, the relief pitching a little below average and the offense above average. 78-80 wins?

Excellent breakdown. I think that really shows a key for the remainder of the offseason -- we don't necessarily have to bring in a top-flight type starter, but we definitely (in my opinion) need to bring in some quality depth that will be superior to that 200 IP of replacement level pitching (5.50 ERA). I think those projections are very fair. I'd like to think Parra could do a tick better than that in his 2nd full season, but the projections for Gallardo, Bush, and Suppan all are right at/around what I would expect. I think we need at least one more guy so that we can go into the season with McClung as the 6th starter, the fallback option. A signing like Randy Johnson, heck even like Paul Byrd should allow us to have a FA/Suppan/McClung 4-5-6 group of starting pitchers that should be able to keep us above replacement level.

[Tbadder]

I don't think the team is a playoff team as it is composed now. So what? Overbuying will kill the Brewers. We're a young team, and with some patience, and being open to opportunity will net us another playoff team in the near future. This is not your father's Brewers. I'm not worried at all, and if we went into next season with this pitching staff I wouldn't fret. I'd just like to see it as it really is.

[SheetsCyYoung04]

Let's try a quick and dirty estimate for the starting rotation next year:

 

ZiPS Projections, 2009:

 

Gallardo: 3.71 ERA

Bush: 4.50 ERA

Parra: 4.57 ERA

Suppan: 5.04 ERA

 

Let's assume that they all have 180 P next year. That covers 720 IP. The average NL team got 932 IP from their starters, so let's add 200 IP at replacement level (5.5 ERA).

 

Brewer Ave: 4.79 ERA

 

Compared to:

 

NL 08' Ave: 4.47 ERA

NL 07' Ave: 4.65 ERA

NL 06' Ave: 4.66 ERA

--------------------------

4.59 ERA

 

Not terrible but not good.

 

Assuming that no one is added, My WAG is that the starting rotation is bad, the relief pitching a little below average and the offense above average. 78-80 wins?

Gallardo Bill James 3.61 Marcel 3.59

Parra Bill James 3.95 Marcel 4.44

Bush Bill James 3.99 Marcel 4.29

Suppan Bill James 4.70 Marcel 4.82

So using the same method as above the Brewers come out with 4.38 and 4.56 ERAs respectively, and McClung's Bill James is 4.69 and Marcel is 4.35; certainly much better than the 5.5 replacement level. I think our rotation is closer to average than bad.

[Sheets4theHOF]

I'm ok with the brewers taking a step back this year and waiting for Escobar and Gamel in 2010. Then you trade Hardy and maybe Fielder for some pitching and you have probably a better team then you had in 2008 assuming Gamel and Escobar are the real deal. It took acquiring CC and him pitching out of his mind for the brewers to barely get into the playoffs. You can't make that type of addition every year so Melvin has to pick his spots.

 

I just wish if its obviously that the crew can't add pieces to have a realistic shot at a playoff spot they'd move Cameron to the highest bidder. No reason to be spending 10 million on him if you're not a contender.

 

As the team is currently constructed, i would bet on somewhere between 77-82 wins. You're going to have starting pitching injuries and right now the brewers simple can't handle them.

 

A big part of the future is going to how good Yo and Parra are. If they can be a legit 1-2 at the top of the rotation and stay healthy, the brewers will be good for the foreseeable future.

[ILuvDaBush]

And doesn't Cameron's presence, both on the field where he plays exemplary defense in center, and in the clubhouse where he is the consummate professional, factor into the development of the young guns?

[Sheets4theHOF]

Sure but its not worth 10 million dollars. The brewers can't afford to pay a premium for veteran sage wisdom.

[rluzinski]

and McClung's Bill James is 4.69 and Marcel is 4.35; certainly much better than the 5.5 replacement level. I think our rotation is closer to average than bad.

 

Those projections are based on him mostly being a reliever. That makes a big difference.

 

Sure but its not worth 10 million dollars.

 

Cameron easily projects to be an average CFer next year. An average player is worth around $9-$10 mil, in free agency. Even if you could find this average starting pitcher to sign for a one year deal, if you replace Cameron with a below average CFer, you are mostly spinning your wheels anyway.

[Sheets4theHOF]

Cameron easily projects to be an average CFer next year. An average player is worth around $9-$10 mil, in free agency. Even if you could find this average starting pitcher to sign for a one year deal, if you replace Cameron with a below average CFer, you are mostly spinning your wheels anyway.

Not disagreeing, but my premise is that the brewers aren't going to be a contending team in 2009. No reason to spend 10 million on a 36 year old cf in the last year of his deal.

[kramnoj]

Not disagreeing, but my premise is that the brewers aren't going to be a contending team in 2009. No reason to spend 10 million on a 36 year old cf in the last year of his deal.

 

Sure there is. You never know what will happen in a baseball season. Other teams could suffer major injuries, your team could get lucky in close games, and you find yourself with a winning record and in the playoffs. Even if a team is convinced that it won't be a contender, they should still spend reasonable money on good talent. You want fans to come to your games and spend money, and you don't want fans to realize that they can spend a summer not enjoying Brewers games. Some of them may find other things they can do with their money and time, and will be harder to win back down the road.

[Sheets4theHOF]

I think when you're a team like the brewers you have to pick your spots or you'll end up mediocre season after season. The 10 million spent on Cameron could be used in much better ways and by trading him you'd get the bonus of something else in return.

 

I really hope Melvin decides to take a step back this season and focus on making a run in either 2010 or 2011 instead of pinning the brewers' hopes to other teams getting struck by a rash of injuries or a string of lucky wins. If brewer fans generally have a problem with that, maybe we don't deserve a championship. Gotta be realistic.

[kramnoj]

The 10 million spent on Cameron could be used in much better ways and by trading him you'd get the bonus of something else in return.

 

It's easy to say this, but it is much harder to actually show. It's not like there is a great young FA that will dramatically help the Brewers years down the road that is available right now. As far as getting something in return for Cameron, the market seems to be Melky. No other team seems interested in trading for Cameron, and the Yankees aren't interested in giving up a player of signifcant value for him.

 

I really hope Melvin decides to take a step back this season and focus on making a run in either 2010 or 2011

 

What specific benefit comes from taking a step back? If you could trade current players that wouldn't be factors in 2010 for good future value, sure, do that. But that doesn't seem to be an option. Absent of that, it makes sense to build as good a team as possible for 2009 within a budget and not make any moves that would hurt the chances of future Brewer teams.

[Sheets4theHOF]

It's easy to say this, but it is much harder to actually show.

 

...

 

What specific benefit comes from taking a step back?

Again keep in mind this is all built on the premise of the brewers being unlikely (as they are currently constructed without the addition of a major piece(s)) to make the playoffs in 09. I have no problem with someone disagreeing with that premise because its simply my prediction and nothing more. I've been wrong before and i could be wrong again.

 

But if you agree with my perspective on the brewers' chances in 2009, i really don't understand how you think keeping Cameron is a good idea. I'd take a bucket of batting practice balls in return if that was the best offer and the whole 10 million Cameron will be paid this year is off of the brewers' books. The 10 million doesn't need to be spent this year. It could be spent next year, the year after, or the year after that. There's no salary cap its just the owner's pockets. Taking a step back this year and saving money will give the owner a bigger profit at the end of the year and make him more willing to go into the red for a season if a serious shot at playoff run in a future year presents itself. I think with the addition of Gamel and Escobar plus whatever you get in trading Hardy and/or Fielder will make 2010 or 2011 one of those years.

[kramnoj]

The 10 million doesn't need to be spent this year.

 

This is where the biggest disagreement is. Teams don't generally operate this way. The Marlins have been saving money for years, they should be able to have a payroll of $150M some year with all the money they have saved. But for whatever reason, it doesn't work that way.

 

Maybe it's a PR thing. It won't look good for the customers to have a playoff team one year and then significantly cut payroll next year. If you are essentially telling the fans you don't think you have a chance to compete, many fans will listen and choose not to follow the team. So how many millions are you actually saving yourself when you take into account the smaller attendance and associated revenue?

[Invader3K]

But if you agree with my perspective on the brewers' chances in 2009, i really don't understand how you think keeping Cameron is a good idea. I'd take a bucket of batting practice balls in return if that was the best offer and the whole 10 million Cameron will be paid this year is off of the brewers' books. The 10 million doesn't need to be spent this year. It could be spent next year, the year after, or the year after that. There's no salary cap its just the owner's pockets. Taking a step back this year and saving money will give the owner a bigger profit at the end of the year and make him more willing to go into the red for a season if a serious shot at playoff run in a future year presents itself. I think with the addition of Gamel and Escobar plus whatever you get in trading Hardy and/or Fielder will make 2010 or 2011 one of those years.

The other poster is right that teams don't usually carry over the "extra" payroll money year to year. It just doesn't work that way in pro sports, generally. I get your premise about the Brewers possibly not making the playoffs. I think right now their chances could be characterized as very shaky at best. However, I don't see what good trading Cameron for "a bucket of balls" would do. He's worth much more than that at this point. We don't need to be a feeder team for clubs like the Yankees.

 

Also, I am surprised how many people bank on Gamel and Escobar being the future. Neither of them have much experience at AAA as of right now. I'm not saying they will be busts, but it can be dangerous expecting every prospect to be an impact player, especially right away. It seems like we heard the same thing for years, up until last year..."Wait for the young guys to come up! Then we'll win!" Well, all the guys we were waiting for are up right now. I don't see what good putting things off for a year will do...then we'll just be hearing, "Well, we just traded Fielder, so we have to give Gamel a year to adjust," (or whatever). Kind of like building for a future that never happens.

[Ennder]

The Brewers look to be about an 81-85 win team right now depending on how optimistic you want to be. We lost roughly 12 wins between sheets/sabathia/torres and maybe gained a win or two by losing Gagne, Turnbow etc. Gallardo for a full year should be worth 2 wins, generic improvement by young guys probably worth a win. If we go out and sign a Looper type who is like 1-1.5 wins and say Fuentes or Hoffman which is 1.5 wins we'll be sitting in the 84-89 win range which is where you really want to be to be in the playoff hunt. That means a couple hot streaks, a little luck or a mid season trade can easily push the team up to 90 win range like last year.

 

That is the twins model that everyone is so fond of, build a team good enough to back into the playoffs but that doesn't really have the talent to be considered a sure fire playoff team and hope for the best.