Scary Quote from Melvin...?

[PilprinBuddha]

Maybe I'm reading too much into this quote:

Melvin said that even if Cashman were to call to re-open talks about Cameron, he might not be open to the idea anymore.

"I'm not necessarily shopping him," Melvin said, according to the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel. "The Yankees had expressed interest. The only reason to do it was to regain some flexibility to pursue pitching. But the good pitching is drying up anyway."

If we don't improve our pitching staff we will be lucky to be .500 again. Maybe he is just referring to FA pitcher, but it is concerning to me that we might be headed back to mediocrity after a one year run. That would suck!

[Ennder]

We were well above .500 with this same exact team minus Gallarado/Torres and plus Sheets before the Sabathia trade last year. I don't see how we are lucky to be .500 downgrading from Sheets to Gallardo. We could certainly use an arm but it doesn't have to be an ace for us to be competitive.

[Chio151]

We were well above .500 with this same exact team minus Gallarado/Torres and plus Sheets before the Sabathia trade last year. I don't see how we are lucky to be .500 downgrading from Sheets to Gallardo. We could certainly use an arm but it doesn't have to be an ace for us to be competitive.

Very good point. If you want a good starting point for expectations, we should be looking at pre all-star break 2008 Brewers. Not too bad. Not championship, but not terrible. We need more development from the minors or a surprise deal.

[bklynbrewcrew]

Im definitely concerned with the lack of activity so far this offseason but there doesnt seem to be much going on other than the big markets signing guys. Im still holding out hope that we will resign Sheets and possibly sign Fuentes as well.

[joepepsi]

I think we will see a trade that brings a young arm to the team to pair up with Gallrdo/Parra. Someone like Toronto, who has a few good young pitchers might be willing to deal for a certain hotshot ss prospect or right fielder.

[trwi7]

I think we will see a trade that brings a young arm to the team to pair up with Gallrdo/Parra. Someone like Toronto, who has a few good young pitchers might be willing to deal for a certain hotshot ss prospect or right fielder.

 

I don't see Toronto dealing any pitching with McGowan out until at least May of next season and Marcum out for the year. I don't see them needing a RF either with Rios, Snider and Lind.

[Patrick425]

When I first heard about some FA pitchers that the Brewers were looking at including R. Johnson and Smoltz, I thought meh. But, after looking closer at Johnson's and Smoltz's recent stats, other than the injury risk, I wouldn't mind having either of those guys in the rotation for the right price.

[joepepsi]

I think we will see a trade that brings a young arm to the team to pair up with Gallrdo/Parra. Someone like Toronto, who has a few good young pitchers might be willing to deal for a certain hotshot ss prospect or right fielder.

I don't see Toronto dealing any pitching with McGowan out until at least May of next season and Marcum out for the year. I don't see them needing a RF either with Rios, Snider and Lind.

Oops.; I didn't realize Marcum was out for the year. He's not on the DL. At any rate, I was thinking they'd be most interested in Escobar, not so much in Hart, unless they were adding a lefty OF like Lind in some kind of multi player deal.

[RyDogg66]

This is the same team that was above .500 and in command of the Wild Card for most of the season BEFORE they obtained Sabathia. Now we plug in Gallardo for SHeets and we are an under .500 ball club? I maintain that Ben Sheets had a good first half and Sabathia had a great second half. Sheets was average or hurt in the second half of the season and we didnt have Sabathia in the first half. So we need to replace 3 half season of pitching. One good, one great, one average. If Gallarado is healthy the entire season I believe he will produce 75% of what Sheets and Sabathia did last year, essentially have a good first half and good second half. I also think that an improved Parra and more consistent Dave Bush can cover the other 25%.

[JohnBriggs12]

This is the same team that was above .500 and in command of the Wild Card for most of the season BEFORE they obtained Sabathia. Now we plug in Gallardo for SHeets and we are an under .500 ball club? I maintain that Ben Sheets had a good first half and Sabathia had a great second half. Sheets was average or hurt in the second half of the season and we didnt have Sabathia in the first half. So we need to replace 3 half season of pitching. One good, one great, one average. If Gallarado is healthy the entire season I believe he will produce 75% of what Sheets and Sabathia did last year, essentially have a good first half and good second half. I also think that an improved Parra and more consistent Dave Bush can cover the other 25%.

The reason the Brewers led the wild card at the break was largely due to the first half perfomance of Sheets and Parra who were a combined 18-5.

 

While Gallardo is a fine young pitcher, and Parra has the ability, I think it's overly optimistic to assume Gallardo will be the pitcher Sheets was in the first half of 2008 when Sheets became the All Star starter and certainly it's overly optimistic to think Gallardo in his first full season is going to pitch at that level the entire season.

 

It's also way too optimistic to think that Parra can perform like he did the first half of 2008 (when he was 8-2 with a 3.78) over the entire course of 2009.

 

Bottom line, assuming same production out of Bush, Suppan, and McClung they got while forging that first half of 2008 wild card lead for a full 2009, they need Gallardo to go 20-6 and Parra to go 16-4 and do that while carrying a burden of number one and two starters.

 

Ain't gonna happen.

[Patrick425]

This is the same team that was above .500 and in command of the Wild Card for most of the season BEFORE they obtained Sabathia. Now we plug in Gallardo for SHeets and we are an under .500 ball club? I maintain that Ben Sheets had a good first half and Sabathia had a great second half. Sheets was average or hurt in the second half of the season and we didnt have Sabathia in the first half. So we need to replace 3 half season of pitching. One good, one great, one average. If Gallarado is healthy the entire season I believe he will produce 75% of what Sheets and Sabathia did last year, essentially have a good first half and good second half. I also think that an improved Parra and more consistent Dave Bush can cover the other 25%.

I've heard this argument before and I somewhat agree with it. However, who's the Brewer's closer?

[zzzmanwitz]

However, who's the Brewer's closer?

 

Closers are a dime a dozen. Pretty much anyone can save games at the same rate as the brewers did last year.

[trwi7]

I've heard this argument before and I somewhat agree with it. However, who's the Brewer's closer?

I guess I don't see that as a big deal. We had Gagne for a couple of months last year closing games and he was terrible. Will the new closer really be any worse than Gagne was in the first couple months?

 

Also, you have to assume that Villanueva, our best reliever will be in the bullpen from the start, that's an upgrade. Riske was hurt much of last year, you would assume he would be better.

[Patrick425]

zzzmanwitz[/b]]However, who's the Brewer's closer?

 

Closers are a dime a dozen. Pretty much anyone can save games at the same rate as the brewers did last year.

I know this is kind of the Billy Bean philosophy. Not sure I agree with it. I think much of Philly's success last year was due to the fact that they could shorten there games knowing that their closer was just about a lock.

 

If fans truly feel that closers are a dime a dozen and that the Brewers should not make any big investments in that area, I hope they remember that when the chosen closer starts blowing saves. Be kind.

[MJLiverock]

I posted this a few months ago but reading this thread reminded me of it.

 

Last year the starters threw 983 innings (just over 6 a game) but Sheets (198) and Sabathia (130) were significant. Bush threw 185 so if he can do that again, assume Gallardo goes 170 (coming off an injury and a big jump from 2008's limited duty, consistent with 2007), Parra gets 170 which would be a slight improvement over last year where he really looked wore down. That leaves 458 innings for Suppan and whoever else is used at the back of the rotation, about 47% of the innings for Suppan or worse pitchers unless someone is brought in or guys like McClung (if not in bullpen) will really have to improve.

 

Even if Gallardo can put up Sheets like numbers, which is probably optimistic, that leaves about 160 innings of very good to elite pitching innings that will be replaced with much worse pitchers. 160 Innings of starting pitching at 6 2/3 a game is about 24 starts. The Brewers were 32-16 in games started by Sabathia and Sheets including an incredible 14-3 when CC started. Even replacing them with .500 level pitching is a loss of 8 games plus the mediocre bullpen of last year hasn't improved and may be worse with the loss of Torres. (Riske may be better but who really knows how he rebounds). If the pitchers aren't up to .500 caliber and the Brewers could easily be 10-12 games worse on just the pitching loss of these two.

[Gobias Industries]

It cannot be said enough how many of our young players had off years and played under their projections last year. The only guy who played over his head last year was JJ. Having Hart and Weeks revert back to their 2007 form would be huge as well.

[Ennder]

Our closer pre-sabathia was certainly nothing special last year either.

 

JJ did exactly what I expected last year and I expect him to repeat it this year. That is the player that Hardy is.

[TooLiveBrew]

I hope they remember that when the chosen closer starts blowing saves.

 

That's fine. They spent a lot on a closer that blew games last year. Closers blow games sometimes. It happens. Spending $10M/yr. for 3 or 4 seasons on one of the lowest-leverage roles on a team is a misallocation of resources for a team like the Brewers imo.

[RyDogg66]

It is hard to reconcile the belief on this website that Ben Sheets is a bum and we are better off without him and at the same time saying that Yovani Gallardo most likely isnt as good as or cannot replace what Sheets did last year. I know there are hundreds of active posters on this site, but we have to be objective here.

 

Last year Sheets threw 198 innings, went 13-9 with a 3.09 ERA and a 3:1 K:BB ratio and a WHIP of 1.15.

 

So far in his very short career Gallardo has tossed 134 innings with a 3.35 ERA and a 2.5:1 K:BB ratio with a WHIP of 1.26.

 

I think when you look at Gallardo's minor league stats it is perfectly reasonable to project Gallardo to put up a line similar to what Sheets did last year assuming he pitches 200 innings.

 

Now we have to replace CC's second half. Improvement by Parra and Bush over the entire year COULD close the gap somewhat and perhaps - PERHAPS a more consistent and BETTER offense could pick up the rest. I just dont see how this team, as currently constructed is NOT in the 85-89 win territory it needs to be in to challange for a WC spot.

[joepepsi]

I think they are still in 88-92 win potential as is. The difference in 2009 will be more teams competing for the Wild Card. It is best to set your sights for the division title in the offseason, then be content with the Wild Card at the end of the season. 90 wins might not be enough for the playoffs in 2009.

[logan82]

Parra gets 170 which would be a slight improvement over last year where he really looked wore down

 

There were a lot of people who expected Parra would wear down and wanted to shift him to the pen in July so we would have him for the stretch run and the playoffs. I see no reason he shouldn't be expected to come close to 200 innings as long as he gets a little more efficient in his starts and does not get injured.

 

I think we could use a couple more pitchers for depth. I don't think we need a top of the line starter, but 2 guys around Bush's quality or better would be great. I thought we were around an 85 win team at the start of the year last year and played a little better than our talent to get to 90 wins. I think we are about an 85 win team as of right now with no depth at starting pitching in case of injury and an injury to a starting pitcher is going to happen.

[PilprinBuddha]

I wish I was as optimistic. I feel a little better that some of you are. I just can't shake the ghosts of offseasons past.

[Fatter than Joey]

Ned Yost can no longer hurt you.

[MessiahRp]

Wow you guys are really optimistic about a rotation that features Gallardo who has never pitched a full major league season, Parra who wore down badly and practically had to be shut down towards the end of last season, Suppan who was incredibly horrific, Bush who is inconsistent and you never know who you're going to have from one game to the next and.... who, McClung or Cappy? Does anyone think either of those guys will be reliable next year?

 

Plus the comment about closers being a dime a dozen is not true. When the Brewers had poor performances out of their closers they lost plain and simple. Gagne and Turnbow (especially towards the end) lost this team games that would have made differences along the way.

 

Having what is a pretty subpar rotation with a pretty pathetic bullpen... aside from Villy does not instill confidence in anybody but the most rose colored glasses wearing fans... which all appear to be in this thread.

 

Unless the Crew picks up a real top of the rotation quality starter this team will be lucky to break .500 next year.

 

Rp

[logan82]

Parra who wore down badly and practically had to be shut down towards the end of last season

 

Parra pitched about as many innings as he was expected to in 2008 and wore down at almost the exact point where many thought he would from the start of the season. The only surprising thing was that management didn't make any move to save Parra for the end of the season. Parra pitched approx 132 innings in 2007 which was the most since his 139 in 2003. Young pitchers are expected to increase their innings by 25-30 each year. That would have put Parra at 162 at most last year and close to 200 in 2009.

 

Gagne and Turnbow (especially towards the end) lost this team games that would have made differences along the way.

 

Since we don't have them any more there are a couple games we pick up right there.