Alcides Escobar to Oakland?

[logan82]

Tbadder wrote:

The only thing I don't agree with is Hardy's defensive prowess. I think he's major league average, maybe slightly above (I know there's plenty of disagreement over this) but I think Escobar is gonna be elite, and on a team that will always be pitching poor because of the incredible expense, a truly first class SS is a necessity.

I agree with you that JJ is average to slightly above, but like TLB said, JJ shows up at the top of most defensive metrics for 2008. I think he was hurt by playing next to Braun and still had a gimpy ankle in 2007. I think JJ has a little below average range and a strong accurate arm. The metrics seem to disagree.

[Never Outhustled]

I know you really like Brewer, and I've sung his praises in the past, but he's so raw and the comments from his former teammates this year have given me pause.

Which comments are you refering to? The Brewers have been very complimentary of Brewers work ethic and leadership skills.

He also won't be ready in time to replace Hardy.

He has 2 more years to develop. Thats a ton of time. Over the final 2 months of the season, he put up an OPS similar to what Braun put up in the FSL. He then put up a dominant short stint in the AFL. You could easily compare Brewers 2008 season to Cain's 2007, and now Cain is a year away from being our starting CF.

 

I think for a prospect to pull a stud MiLB pitcher he needs to be power prospect... defense and average just isn't valued enough for that.

Hanly Ramirez never hit more than 8 homers in the minors, the same number Escobar hit last year, and he was the centerpiece of a deal for Josh Beckett and Mike Lowell. Emilio Bonifacio carried pretty high trade value twice in the last 6 months, and he was never a top 50 prospect. Michael Bourn was the center piece for Brad Lidge.

 

A top prospect carries high trade value, if he didn't he wouldn't be considered a top prospect.

 

 

I don't think the Padres would be as willing to trade Chase Headley but maybe we'd be able to pry Kevin Kouzmanoff from them.

They're wasting Headley in LF, and they could just put Scott Hairston there, as Will Venable will likely play CF. However, they have nobody to play SS. Headley may have been their top prospect a year ago, but he wasn't considered a top 20 prospect by BA, whereas Escobar will be. I think this deal would be similar to last years Garza/Young deal, 2 teams with limited financial resources trading young players to fill there needs. Its rare, but it happens.

 

OK, I've edited this a couple times, don't know why the formatting went crazy.

[brewerguy71]

Hardy was rated at or near the top by many defensive metrics for 2008, fwiw.

Im glad you added the "fwiw" to that statement, because it is true that Hardy had good defensive "numbers", those numbers from last year were very misleading. In watching many Brewer games last year I was amazed at how many balls that were sure singles up the middle, were hit right at Hardy and turned for outs. Thats not range or ability, its defensive positioning, coaching and scouting.

 

So although his metrics and numbers say he was near that top, ability wise he is average to below average defensively.

[Brian the Automator]

So although his metrics and numbers say he was near that top, ability wise he is average to below average defensively.

I think, in this case, it's worth separating range from reliability. While Hardy's range is probably slightly below average, his reliability on the balls he gets to is high.... Not just from a lack of errors point of view, but from converting balls that other SS's might have just held onto into outs.

[brewerguy71]

Excellent point. The balls that Hardy does get to are near certain outs.

[homer]

Excellent point. The balls that Hardy does get to are near certain outs.

As Bill Schroeder says to the angst of many "Turning outs into outs."

[joepepsi]

Hardy's last two seasons are reminiscent of Ripken/Trammell/Tejada. Escobar seems more like a Tony Fernandez/Renteria/Orlando Cabrera type at best. All these players are good ss, but if you have a ss who puts up Tejada or Ripken type numbers you don't mess with him until he gets too expensive.

[Pudster13]

Escobar does not have near the talent that Hanley Ramirez does with the bat. We will all learn that this year when he struggles to hit AAA pitching.

[And That]

We will all learn that this year when he struggles to hit AAA pitching.

 

When will the stock market rebound, and also I'd like to know how many games the Brewers will win next year?

[Hate those Rodents]

Just as a disclaimer, should Hardy happen to NOT have his three-week torrid hot streak he seems to have had the past two years, his trade value will diminish by a large degree next off-season, as his stats will look rather pedestrian (at least average for a starting SS).

[TheCrew07]

Which comments are you refering to? The Brewers have been very complimentary of Brewers work ethic and leadership skills

After he was bumped up there were 3-4 thinly veiled shots from his former teammates (including Lucroy) and his former manager, they are in the link report threads, if I get time this afternoon I'll go search through my comments because I know I quoted one and mentioned it in my comments.

 

He has 2 more years to develop. Thats a ton of time.

 

True enough, but his offensive issues aside, when is the last time any Brewer farm hand made significant defensive progress from the time they were drafted? Gamel is the only one I can think of who's currently in the system or who's come through the system recently that's made a significant improvement from one year to the next. Braun, Weeks, Fielder, Salome, etc... There is no history of players becoming more fundamentally sound as they progress through the system. I don't want to bag on the kid, because I like Brent, he's awfully toolsy, but he reminds me somewhat of a Bill Hall with much better speed. Obviously I haven't seen him play first hand, but when I look at his numbers and think about him as a player, Hall is always the first player that comes to mind. He may very well turn out to be a 4 tool prospect, but his defense at this time leaves quite a bit to be desired, and the 2 players in front of him can flash the leather.

 

Hanly Ramirez never hit more than 8 homers in the minors, the same number Escobar hit last year, and he was the centerpiece of a deal for Josh Beckett and Mike Lowell. Emilio Bonifacio carried pretty high trade value twice in the last 6 months, and he was never a top 50 prospect. Michael Bourn was the center piece for Brad Lidge.

As usual another excellent point, but I think the big difference here, at least in my mind is that the Marlins were taking the best available deal for established MLB players, not specifically trading prospects for prospects. The Brewers on the other hand shouldn't be looking to acquire soon to be FA players that they have no hope of resigning. We'll have to agree to disagree about Emilio, Rauch isn't exactly the type of player I'd be looking for. Bourn is simliar stat wise, but is an OF is he not? He also had MLB time if I recall correctly, but again I wouldn't be targeting relievers with prospects, to each their own if you'd like to target a closer type.

 

When I think about prospect deals, I'm thinking Hamilton for Volquez, Young for Garza. Can you land pitching without power potential? Absolutely, can you land dominant starting pitching without power, I don't think so. Look at our deal for Sabathia, LaPorta (SLG & OBP) and Brantley (Ave & OBP)... A slugging prospect with holes in his swing and a perfect complimentary player in Brantley. I guess it all comes down to what we'd like the Brewers to target, as you know I want young #2 type starting pitchers who are long term solutions as I think they have the greatest relative value to the Brewers.

 

Hardy's last two seasons are reminiscent of Ripken/Trammell/Tejada. Escobar seems more like a Tony Fernandez/Renteria/Orlando Cabrera type at best. All these players are good ss, but if you have a ss who puts up Tejada or Ripken type numbers you don't mess with him until he gets too expensive

Another good point made by joepespsi, but if Hardy isn't in the organization's long term plans and he doesn't seem to be, then how do they get the most value for him? It's funny because out of the 3 of Hardy, Fielder, and Weeks I always thought Hardy would be the guy that stuck around. However he can get big money on the FA market and didn't sign a deal buying out his arby, so I think that there's a very real possibility he may be the first player to go. Working on the assumption that Hardy will not sign, what's more valuable, 2 draft picks, a deadline deal for talent, an off season deal for talent? Melvin is on record as being of the opinion that the best value for position players comes in offseason, and I'd rather get established successful prospects or young MLB players back than draft pick compensation. At least if they deal for talent the organization has a better idea of what the players will be, draft picks don't really excite me at all as they are so hit and miss. I'd rather one have 1 really solid prospect than 2 draft picks, that's just how I'm wired, again this all comes down to what you believe the possibilities are so I don't think there's a right or wrong answer at this point in time.

 

Edit. My memory stinks, it was a combination of the "Your 2008 WV Power" thread and Link Reports, my post I was thinking of came from the WV thread and is here with the Lucroy quote.

[TooLiveBrew]

Just as a disclaimer, should Hardy happen to NOT have his three-week torrid hot streak he seems to have had the past two years, his trade value will diminish by a large degree next off-season, as his stats will look rather pedestrian (at least average for a starting SS).

 

2008 month-by-month OBP/SLG/OPS:

.305/.298/.603

.350/.352/.752

.364/.606/.969

.379/.651/1.031

.363/.510/.873

.300/.451/.751

 

2007 month-by-month OBP/SLG/OPS:

.345/.524/.869

.355/.605/.961

.319/.366/.685

.283/.276/.558

.312/.509/.821

.314/.430/.744

[Pudster13]

-Alcides Escobar will hit .257 with a .304 OBP at AAA in 2009, with good defensive stats.

 

-The Stock Market will not truly rebound for 3-5 years.

 

-The Brewers will win 84 games in 2009. (unless we re-sign Sheets/make other massive roster moves)

[And That]

Ah, so they are predictions, not factual statements about future happenings.

 

When you say "We will all learn that this year when..." it sounds like you have some inside knowledge or foresight when in fact, it is just a wild guess. I personally do not know what I will learn in 2009, and I do not believe anyone else really does either.

[Pudster13]

As a Brewer fan, I hope Alcides Escobar is the next Hanley Ramirez.

Unfortunately, he is not. He's more likely to become Enrique Cruz than Hanley Ramirez with the bat.

The point I'm trying to make is that it is frustrating reading that Brewer fans want to trade J.J. or move him to third base when he is only the third shortshop in Brewers history to be named an all-star.

[TheCrew07]

As a Brewer fan, I hope Alcides Escobar is the next Hanley Ramirez.

 

Unfortunately, he is not. He's more likely to become Enrique Cruz than Hanley Ramirez with the bat.

 

The point I'm trying to make is that it is frustrating reading that Brewer fans want to trade J.J. or move him to third base when he is only the third shortshop in Brewers history to be named an all-star.

If Hardy signs long term then that discussion will stop, however until that happens it is reasonable to discuss how to get the most of value out of players like Hardy and Fielder who haven't signed and probably won't sign given their situations/agent.

[NastyTwig]

As a Brewer fan, I hope Alcides Escobar is the next Hanley Ramirez.

 

Unfortunately, he is not. He's more likely to become Enrique Cruz than Hanley Ramirez with the bat.

Oh, please. Enrique Cruz? Are you serious? Alcides is also more likely to win a Nobel Prize than to join NASA.

 

We're not saying that he is the second coming of Hanley. But, Alcides is a Gold Glove calibur SS that should be able to hit like an average to above-average SS. What more could you want?

[logan82]

I am not sure being an average hitter is good enough to win a GG.

[craigharmann]

I am not sure being an average hitter is good enough to win a GG.

see: Vizquel, Omar

[Never Outhustled]

As a Brewer fan, I hope Alcides Escobar is the next Hanley Ramirez.

 

Unfortunately, he is not. He's more likely to become Enrique Cruz than Hanley Ramirez with the bat.

I used Ramirez as an example just to show how athletic players with batspeed sometimes develop power at a later age. I'm not nessesarily saying Escobar is Ramirez, just saying he might have more power than he's shown to date.

 

The player he might compare best to on the high side is Jose Reyes, as astutely pointed out by Colbyjack.

[Pudster13]

Alcides is also more likely to win a Nobel Prize than to join NASA.

You don't have to be a MLB scout to know that Alcides is much more likely to win a Nobel Prize than he is to join NASA. You have to be a U.S. citizen in order to join NASA. If Alcides is to reach his NASA ceiling, he has a long way to go. First he has to spend a year at AAA AND become a U.S. citizen!

[MNBrew]

I am not sure being an average hitter is good enough to win a GG.

see: Vizquel, Omar

see also: Smith, Ozzie

 

For Ozzie's first 7 seasons, he was all glove & no bat. He became a decent-enough #8 hitter later in his career.

 

Unnecessary aside but relevant still to this discussion: If Smith were our SS today, many around these parts would be tearing him down and attempting to convince the other half of us that he's not really good on account of his horrible power and his career .665 OPS.

 

My point: Even if Escobar only has an Ozzie Smith-like major league bat, if he's that much of a "plus" fielder, then he's still extremely worth the roster spot and you find a way to keep both him & Hardy in the daily lineup.

[TooLiveBrew]

Unnecessary aside but relevant still to this discussion: If Smith were our SS today, many around these parts would be tearing him down and attempting to convince the other half of us that he's not really good on account of his horrible power and his career .665 OPS.

 

But his numbers have to be considered in the era in which he played. His offensive production was far more acceptable then, and of course that defense would have played in any era. Escobar can't post the same kind of offensive line, play the same (or comparable) defense, and have the same value Ozzie did. The average offensive level is just higher now than it was.