Top Prospect Fan Poll -- Results on homepage

[colbyjack]

It's that time of year again. With the Winter Meetings behind us and two months before pitchers and catchers report, there's an awful lot of time between now and mid-February to fill up with some kind of discussion. Since the AFL and Hawaii leagues have finished, there hasn't been much to talk about.

 

So, it's time for you to make a mark and contribute to the 2009 top prospect fan poll. Here's last year's finished product for reference:

 

http://www.brewerfan.net/...wArticle.do?articleId=272

 

Here's how it works: Compile a list of who you feel the Brewers top 20 prospects are. Be sure not to include any player that has already accumulated 130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched at the big-league level. Also, prospects over the age of 26 are also not eligible (Derek Miller made the cut in the last Power 50, but he and Vinny Rottino are not eligible for this exercise). When done email that list (or send a PM) to me at this email address:

 

pebert@brewerfan.net

 

I will assign values in reverse order of the rankings, with 20 points given to every first-place vote and one point assigned to every 20th place vote. The prospect with the most points will receive the highest ranking.

 

You have more than two full weeks to get your submissions in, as I ask that everyone gets their list in by Friday, January 2nd. Last year I extended the poll a couple of weeks to get to 50 total submissions, so hopefully that won't be an issue this year. Hopefully the release of this story will somewhat coincide with BA's top prospect list, which is scheduled to hit BA's homepage on January 19th.

 

Please note in your email what your board name is. Thanks in advance for your participation!

[madbad2000]

Great timing Patrick. This is an interesting year to do this as once you get to around 10 or so you can have a lot of different permutations that can be justified. I'm very interested to see how this turns out this year.

[clancyphile]

It's also a chance to provide feedback - I think there are a some guys who are VERY undervalued. It's a chance to give these guys a boost.

[colbyjack]

So far I've received 24 submissions, which is less than half of the 50 total I would like to receive before coming up with the results. I initially put a deadline in for this Friday, so please take the time to get your lists to me in the next few days.

 

Thanks to those that have submitted their lists so far. I typically don't respond to the individual emails and PMs, but some very good comments are flowing in. And when clancy says that he feels some guys are VERY undervalued, he's not kidding http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif.

[sbrylski]

Clancy's an outlier, I say we toss his opinion out. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[colbyjack]

Thanks for the responses, as I received four more between last night and this morning. We're still about 20 votes away from wrapping this up, but I don't want this to carry too far into the New Year.

 

For a teaser, as expected, it's a two-horse race for the top spot. There is also a very tight race for the 4th and 5th spots. The prospect currently ranked third is comfortably nestled in between these two races.

 

There was a lot more disparity on this list a year ago. There are nine players that have received a vote from every person, and a 10th that was voted by everyone except one person.

 

Keep 'em coming!

[pogokat]

how far up does clancy have jeff pickler? 3?

[clancyphile]

how far up does clancy have jeff pickler? 3?

He's not even on the list... but let's just say that the top pitching prospect on my ballot is VERY different from BF.net conventional wisdom and that I rate three other pitching prospects at least 15 points higher than their present positions on the Power 50.

 

EDIT: My top OF prospect is also, if you will, probably not the one that BF.net conventional wisdom would pick, albeit his move was relatively small.

 

EDIT 2: One last hint: The top pitching prospect on my ballot and another pitcher in my top ten jumped at least 30 spots from their positions in the present Power 50.

[greeg35]

Let me guess who the outfielder is.....http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

[colbyjack]

I still need 15 submissions to close the polls, and I'm really hoping I get a late push through tomorrow. I know there are more than 35 minor-league die hards on this forum...

[clancyphile]

Let me guess who the outfielder is.....http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

I'll release my ballot on Saturday - and end all the guesswork. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

 

EDIT: See below for ballot - I'm posting a little early...

[madbad2000]

I know I'm curious to see how you rank it clancy. Are you going to include comments on your reasoning?

[clancyphile]

I know I'm curious to see how you rank it clancy. Are you going to include comments on your reasoning?

Yes.

[twobrewers]

I know I'm curious to see how you rank it clancy. Are you going to include comments on your reasoning madness?

I fixed it for you.

[madbad2000]

I'm going to hold off on calling it madness till I see and "hear" what he has to say.

 

So who is his top pitching prospect going to be...Frederickson or Hand? Top outfielder Gindl?

[clancyphile]

I'm going to hold off on calling it madness till I see and "hear" what he has to say.

 

So who is his top pitching prospect going to be...Frederickson or Hand? Top outfielder Gindl?

Hand is not on my ballot, and Frederickson is 19th.

 

Gindl is the 4th OF in my rankings, behind three others.

 

EDIT: It was also a VERY close race for the top spot on my list. I will say that while the position of the top prospect might not have been a surprise to a lot of people, the number two guy had a very strong case in my book for #1.

[brewjihad]

Clancy, the suspense is killing us!

 

This thread reminds me of one of those elementary school games. "Mike is taller than Cindy, Chris is taller than Jean, Suzie is shorter than Luke, Cindy is shorter than Jean, and Luke is taller than Mike. Who is the tallest?"

 

I really hope Carlos George is on someone's ballot. If you've never heard of him, check out his hitting+fielding stats at MiLB or something.

[clancyphile]

Here was my ballot for the Brewerfan Top 20 poll.

 

1. 3B Mat Gamel - A left-handed Ryan Braun

2. 3B/2B Taylor Green - A left-handed Jeff Cirillo

3. C Angel Salome - Good hit, so-so field.

4. LHP Christopher Cody - 1.83 ERA, 1.11 WHIP at Brevard County - keep him as a starter, haven't seen this sort of pwnage at Brevard County since Villanueva and Dillard were dominating.

5. RHP Jeremy Jeffress - High ceiling, but can he put it together?

6. OF Cole Gillespie - He walks, doubles, runs the bases well... he is strong where the major-league club is weak.

7. SS Alcides Escobar - Blocked by Hardy and Weeks.

8. OF Lorenzo Cain - CF of the future?

9. LHP Brae Wright - Could be solid, and will be in AAA.

10. LHP David Welch - Quietly posted a solid year in AA.

11. OF/2B Cutter Dykstra - Little Nails could bring big success to Milwaukee.

12. C/3B Brett Lawrie - Could move up fast - and be blocked by Salome, Gamel/Green, or others

13. C Jonathan Lucroy - Oh, to have a problem like deciding between Lucroy and Salome at catcher...

14. RHP Omar Aguilar - Could be a closer for the Crew by 2010. Or `09.

15. 2B/OF Hernan Irribarren - Should at least help the Crew off the bench.

16. OF Caleb Gindl - Braun and Hart in the majors; Gillespie and Cain in the minors - a great player, but where does he play?

17. RHP Alexandre Periard - A candidate for the 2010 rotation.

18. LHP Zach Braddock - A left-handed Derrick Turnbow.

19. LHP Evan Frederickson - Another left-handed Turnbow.

20. SS Brent Brewer - Bill Hall 2.0

 

Comments: Taylor Green very nearly got the top spot over Gamel - for many of the same reasons that Cole Gillespie got a slightly higher posting than Lorenzo Cain: A lot of Green's strengths are in areas there the Brewers are weak, particularly in his OBP skills, and he adds doubles power. Salome was #3, promarily due to his bat. Even if he can't be a catcher, perhaps the Brewers can move him to a corner OF slot the way they did with Dave Nilsson in the 90s.

 

Chris Cody was the top-rated pitcher. To put it bluntly, his numbers particularly in Brevard County, were awesome and are comparable to the ones poted by Tim Dillard and Carlos Villanueva back in 2005. He probably should have gone to Huntsville instead of Jeffress, who is at #5 largely due to his ceiling. This was a 35-point jump from his position on the Power 50.

 

Cole Gillespie was the top OF - and would be my pick to be the Crew's 4th OF. With his skill set, like Green's being primarily in areas where the Brewers were relatively weak, I gave him the edge over Lorenzo Cain. I moved Escobar down, alrgely because the Brewers have Weeks and Hardy. He is, for all intents and purposes, blocked barring a trade.

 

Nine and ten were Wright and Welch: These two are probably interchangable as left-handed versions of Jeff Suppan. I think it is quite likely that the 2010 rotation could be Gallardo, Parra, Cody, Wright, and Welch.

 

Dykstra and Lawrie are going to both be very good players. The big question will be where they play. Lucroy is most likely to be the Brewers' next catcher.

 

Aguilar might be worth putting in the major-league bullpen in 2009. Irribarren could be a valuable IF/OF backup in 2009.

 

Caleb Gindl: Looks like a great player, but where does he play?

 

Pereiard is looking good, but lacked the dominance that Cody showed. Braddock and Frederickson are a pair of southpaw Turnbow equivalents. My comment about Brent Brewer probably says it all.

 

The Honorable mentions:

21. RHP Tim Dillard - If he were a starter, he'd probably be in the top ten.

22. RHP Cody Scarpetta -

23. RHP Evan Anundsen

24. RHP Jake Odirozzi

25. RHP Efrain Nieves

[LouisEly]

Not so mad clancy - it looks frighteningly like mine. I also had Green as my #2 overall behind Gamel, had Gillespie as my #1 OF prospect and #6 overall, and also had Escobar at #7. I think I had Cain at #8 or 9. My shockers were Lucroy at #3 and Aguilar at #5, and Salome at #8. I think I may have undervalued Salome a bit, but I think more of Lucroy overall as a catcher because of his defense. If Salome can harness his arm accuracy and quicken his release... then he will be worthy of uber-prospect status. Aguilar dominated in the AFL and dominated the last two months in AA. I went back and forth with Cody at the bottom of my list... but ultimately went with Scarpetta instead.

 

I am shocked though that you had David Welch ranked higher than me.

 

(I do agree that he and Wright will be serious contenders for #4/#5 starter spots in 2010; should be easier to move Suppan after 2009 when he only has one year on his contract left.)

[RobertR]

When evaluating a prospect, organizational need plays no part in my analysis. Things work out in the long run, a guy plays or he's moved for something that fits the team's needs. Injuries happen to guys ahead of prospects all the time as well. I understand why people do otherwise, but IMO you're not evaluating the player purely as a prospect when you do that.

 

Robert

[twobrewers]

I think I had Scarpetta in the top 7 or so.

 

I really like your list clancy. However, it seems you rated them based on chance of success with the Brewers. I looked at ceiling a little more.

 

(Well, and you clearly are related to Chris Cody)

[clancyphile]

LouisEly

 

Salome was #3 on my list due to his bat. As I said in my list, there's nothing to keep the Crew from hiding Angel in left field, the way they did with Dave Nilsson and B.J. Surhoff in the 90s. Salome's arm should be good from there.

 

Cody's dominance at Brevard County is just amazing. I hope that unlike Dillard, he gets his shot in a big-league rotation. As my honorable mention states, Dillard and Villanueva were dominating at Brevard, and to an extent, they're wasted in the bullpen.

[clancyphile]

I think I had Scarpetta in the top 7 or so.

 

I really like your list clancy. However, it seems you rated them based on chance of success with the Brewers. I looked at ceiling a little more.

 

(Well, and you clearly are related to Chris Cody)

Well, the needs of the Brewers do fit into my analysis. They have to, to some extent. If you have three good outfielders (say it's Salome-Hart-Braun in 2010 from left to right), then what good do a lot of other OFs do for you, unless the NL gets with the times and adopts the designated hitter?

 

Taylor Green was VERY close to getting the number one vote. A Jeff Cirillo-type is the kind of hitter the Brewers need, but can you pass up a hitter like Ryan Braun? I suppose I could have sent it in as a tie, but you can only put one third baseman on the field, so someone had to make the call.

 

As for Cody, looking at his performance at Brevard, I have to give him the nod over Jeffress. It was just dominating. As I said in that list, you have to go back to when Dillard was racking up a bunch of CGs and Villanueva was dominating to see comparably good performances there. Jeffress was nowhere near Cody's level in `08.

[heresrobin]

If we are going to give Cody some love, don't we by default have to give Bobby Bramhall some love? Bramhall, a lefty, is 1.5 years younger than Cody and dominated the same league last year in Brevard County. Bramhall's strikeout rate is better and their WHIPs are the same. Although Cody had a significantly better ERA (although Bramhall had a very solid 2.51 ERA) and I'm guessing his frame projects a little bit better (he's 6'1 vs. Bramhall's 5'10). Unless there is something I just don't know about Bramhall. For the record, I had Cody slightly ahead of Bramhall, but based on numbers, shouldn't they be sort of close prospect-wise?

[TheCrew07]

I thought either of those 2 should have been the organization's pitcher of the year, but I will always rate a SP ahead of a RP though Bramhall did get a fair amount of starts as well. I didn't have either player in my top 20, Cody gets great results but I expect that to diminish as he moves up, better hitters adjust more quickly to guys like him who don't have dominating stuff but know how to pitch. I'm not sure what to make of Cody going forward because he profiles like some of the players ahead of him that are now considered bullpen options for the MLB team.

 

I'm not sure what to make of Bramhall either as he's done well in both roles, but he's smaller and probably won't fill out his frame much more. He's a LHP pitcher which helps of course, he actually pitched a little better as starter, and has had success at every level thus far (not counting his 1 appearance for 2 innings at WVA in 2007). He was a late round pick, but played for a College power in Rice, but again mostly as a reliever. He had a great curve and a decent fastball for a lefty in the upper 80s, but he wasn't included in any of the pregame audio segments that discussed prospects that I remember, so I'm unsure if he's developing a 3rd pitch or not? 2 pitch guys seem to make better relievers than starters (Ben Sheets aside), and was labeled as a LOOGY when drafted, but his splits don't suggest that he'll only have success against LH batters, he's actually done better against righties thus far in his young career.

 

Both players will likely start 2009 in AA, so I think we'll have a better idea of where they fit in after the season.