Parallels to 1992/1993

[RockCoCougars]

"Those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it"....

 

Maybe I need to step down from the ledge, but I'm starting to get nervous about how this off season is shaking out. The perceived lack of interest in resigning Sheets and seeming lack of motivation to make any major moves is disconcerting to me. I've been thinking about this off season, and how it's starting to remind me of 1992/1993. For example.....

 

Team emerges from mediocrity (83-79 record the year before) to win 90 games (92-70 in '92, 90-72 in '08)

Team plans on building around 5 young position players on offense moving forward (1992: Listach, Vaughn, Hamilton, Nilsson, Jaha - 2008: Braun, Fielder, Hardy, Hart, Weeks)

Team has "stud" young pitcher to anoint as ace of the staff (1992: Eldred - 2008: Gallardo)

Team has several veteran free agents that it makes little if any effort to resign (1992: Seitzer, Fletcher, Plesac, Bosio - 2008: Gagne, Mota,Shouse, Kapler, and Cameron (I will throw him in here because I don't believe the team ever intended on keeping him)

Finally, and most importantly

Team has "face of the franchise" free agent (1992: Molitor 2008: Sheets) with an injury riddled past, that team chooses not to seriously pursue because........

Team has an albatross contract (1992: Higuera 2008: Suppan)

 

In the 1992/1993 off season, the Brewers did basically nothing but make a few window dressing moves picking up has-beens like Dickie Thon and Billy Doran. They basically sat pat while losing a bunch of their valuable free agents. Of course, the next season they won only 69 games... Could it happen again? I'll give you that the young offensive core wasn't nearly as talented as the current one, but in my opinion the pitching staff on paper headed into1993 was much better than the staff as it's assembled now. My biggest fear is that the team makes a Kevin Reimer-like move to replace Ben Sheets (Jon Garland, anyone). I guess that when I hear "he's always hurt when we need him", it sounds an awful lot like "he's just a DH".

 

Now I'm not saying that this team will revert to a 69 win season. But I will say even though it's early, I don't remember being as unhappy with an offseason since 92/93.

[clancyphile]

Yeah, I am getting that sort of sinking feeling, albeit not to the same degree:

Gallardo, Parra, Bush and Suppan are not a horrible 1-4, but the Brewers need at least one good starter. Villanueva, McClung, and Tim Dillard spring to mind as contenders for the rotation, and they are in-house. And Sheets hasn't signed with anyone yet - so he could theoretically still come back. If so, Dillard, McClung, and Villanueva go back to the bullpen, but might be the top options to take over if someone in the rotation gets hurt.

 

I think the team will fall back to a 2005/2007-esque level, though. But I see some hope down the line: Everyone talks Jeffress, but I think there are a couple of sleepers for the rotation. The big one is Christopher Cody, who racked up quite a performance at Brevard County that was better than what came from the aforementioned Dillard and Villanueva - and I'd be comfortable with either of them as a #5 starter, although I think they could be better than that (say, #3s).

[BrewCrewForever]

I agree with clancyphile, Gallardo, Parra, Bush and Suppan are 4 nice guys in a rotation but we need one more guy who can be a 1 or 2 to go with Gallardo. I would much rather see McClung, Villanueva and Dillard in the pen.

[moofnelson]

One big difference between now and 92/93: Bando and Selig < Melvin and Attanasio. While it appears to me, in hindsight, that Selig let the Brewers go to heck in the 90's, Attanasio wants the Brewers to be improve every year. That being said, this has been a very disappointing offseason. I was hoping for little shakeup in the lineup, but it looks like all we have to hope for is that Bill Hall's lasik surgery was successful.

[Invader3K]

I agree with clancyphile, Gallardo, Parra, Bush and Suppan are 4 nice guys in a rotation but we need one more guy who can be a 1 or 2 to go with Gallardo. I would much rather see McClung, Villanueva and Dillard in the pen.

 

I have no doubt that they will be getting one more pitcher to round out the rotation. They have to, and Melvin knows it. Maybe it will just be an older veteran like Randy Johnson, but they'll get someone.

[JohnBriggs12]

"I'll give you that the young offensive core wasn't nearly as talented as the current one"

 

I don't think that's necessarily true. Certainly not in the perspective of 1993. Jaha's best years he hit .313/.389/.579, .300/.398/.543 and .276/.414/.556. He also had years were he hit 34 and 35 HR and drove in 111 and 118 runs. Listach was coming off ROY season. There was no reason to believe it was to be his high water mark. Vaughn was a 4 time All Star who once hit 50 HR and twice more was over 40. Hamilton had a long productive career with a career BA of .291 and a career OBP of .360. Nilsson was dogged by ailments but had one of the prettiest swings I've ever seen and he ended with a career .817 OPS, including an incredible 1996 where he hit .331/.407/.525.

 

That was by any standard a very fine core of young talent. They just never put it together at the same time due to injuries (which happen) mostly. The one season they were putting it together, 1996, the pitching staff was in total collapse and Vaughn got traded at the deadline. That year they scored 894 runs. This current group has never come close to scoring that many runs.

 

The basic point RockCoCougers makes is a good one. You can have a nice core of players but you can't lose big time talent and expect it to stay competitive. Your going to lose players but you have to keep adding talent around your core.

[Ennder]

Well either they stand pat in which case they obviously are looking at 2010 being the year to make a push or they make some moves and target 2009. It is way too early in the offseason to know which one is the plan. Both plans make sense. Gallardo and Parra probably need a full year to get stretched out and pitch to their potential and our next wave of minor leaguers are all at least half a year away from being ready.

 

My guess is they are playing for 2010 because talking about a Cabrera for Cameron trade only makes sense for 2010 in my opinion.

[colbyjack]

But I will say even though it's early, I don't remember being as unhappy with an offseason since 92/93.

 

If that is true, it's because your expectations have been changed due to the team's success, and that in itself can be a good thing.

 

I'm not sure I jive with the whole "face of the franchise" thing when it comes to Sheets. It seems as though more and more people are upset that the Brewers aren't going to offer him a contract, yet it doesn't seem as though Sheets even wants to return to the team.

 

Plus, many people were on Sheets' case for most of the season, if not his entire career, for his inability to stay healthy. How many times over the past few years has the Brewers playoff chances been tied to Sheets' health? If the team can't rely on the guy, why should they invest an incredible amount of money to keep him around and keep him happy?

 

Re-signing Sheets to even a two-year deal when the writing is on the wall would remind me to other contract situations of the past, such as the ones for Teddy Higuera and Cal Eldred. You yourself said that "Those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it," and I think the analogies to those two pitchers hit a lot closer to home than Molitor's departure.

[Mass Haas]

You don't have to agree with each and every aspect of RockCoCougars' initial post, but he deserves kudos for putting together one of the more insightful thread topics here in some time. For those of us old enough to remember that group from 16 years ago, his post was thought-provoking, at least to this reader. Nice job!

[Invader3K]

Well, Sheets leaving is probably most on him. It sounds like he's set on leaving. There's no point in Melvin making him some token offer that Sheets isn't even going to consider. It's a lot different than when Bando made a ridiculous low ball offer to Molitor, and let him walk to the Blue Jays to help them win the World Series the very next year.

[rluzinski]

I don't remember an off season that there wasn't a vocal minority complaining about the direction of the club.

[Invader3K]

Yeah...at least this isn't like the '02/'03/04 era where the club basically couldn't do anything (other than trade a star like Sexson for parts).

[NievesNoNO]

Good stuff RockCo. Just goes to show how quickly things can fall apart. My worst day as a fan was when Molitor signed with Toronto, he's still easily my favorite Brewer. Injuries and horrible front office moves really derailed a promising team. The Vaughn trade was maybe the worst in franchise history. There are certainly many similarities between the two teams and situations. A few setbacks and we could end up in the same position, however I think the current farm system is much stronger and we have more competent individuals making personnel decisions to hopefully stave off a complete collapse.

[patrickgpe]

i agree with masshass, very insightful post. I never really though about the that time in 92 and 93. I guess the only difference was that the some in the national media still had the brewers as playoff contenders in 93. I remember some publication picking us to win the whole thing. I don't think there will be the same expectations in april for this team. taking a deeper look in the 93 team vs the 09 team lets compare the opening day roster vs the potential one for this year.

 1993 2009 C Kmack Kendall adv 2009 1B Jaha Fielder adv 2009 2B Thon Weeks adv 2009 SS Listach Hardy adv 2009 3B Sufhoff Hall adv 2009 LF Vaughn Braun adv 2009 CF Yount Cam/Cabera adv 2009 if cameron; push if cabrera RF Hamilton Hart adv push SP1 Wegman Gallardo adv 2009 SP2 Eldred Parra adv 1993 SP3 Navarro Bush adv 2009 SP4 Bones Suppan adv push SP5 Boddicker ?? CL Henry ?? 

While i understand the offseason has just started, and that there is a major trade in the works that could potentially move hardy to 3rd and escobar to ss, i think the 2009 team is better hands down. The 1993 team had huge injury problems that led to their demise. Jaha and Eldred were always hurt. No matter what the rotation looks like, the 2009 team will put up runs. The 1993 team had a fading superstar in Yount, and really had one potential superstar in Vaughn. I know the comparisons will be there because of hte loss of CC and possibly sheets, and I agree with some of roco's post, but I still think this will atleast be an 80 win team, not a 69 win disaster.

 

EDIT: sorry i still don't know how to put tabs between characters

 

(prettified --1992 http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif)

[davego]

Interesting thread. Only thing I'd like to add is that the talent level in the high minors seems to be much more valuable now then in 1993.

[twobrewers]

Great post Rock!

If that is true, it's because your expectations have been changed due to the team's success, and that in itself can be a good thing.

Colby brings up a point that I think many Brewer fans are forgetting. Two years ago, on Christmas the Brewers were able to convince an old average pitcher to come to Milwaukee for a ton of money. At that point, we couldn't believe a major free agent would come to Milwaukee.

Last year, Curt Schilling mentioned Milwaukee as one of like 12 teams he would consider playing for. And as a Brewer fan - you felt honored that players would even consider Milwaukee.

This year, we are terrified that Melvin might try to sign Garland.

Milwaukee might never be able to sign prize free agents. And if they do, they will likely have to overpay. I agree with the similarities between 1992/1993. But I also don't think there is anything you can do about it - hence you repeat the cycle. (Build your talent from the inside and hold them as long as you can)

[Crazyk1294]

If we start hearing ads like, "Rounding second and headed for first" again I'll be worried...

[Eddiehitsthefoulpole]

In the end, we are a low-revenue stream team. We will always have a tighter budget than the Cubs and Cardinals. I think that we are going younger this year with the idea that we will take on more salary in 2010. I remember being dismayed in 1992 because our young talent didn't have a lot of major league experience at that time. Sal was counting on every young player to succeed. Our other problem in 1992 was that we allowed pitchers to leave (Bosio, Plesac, Holmes) without a lot of pitching prospects in the minors. The current Brewers seem to have a better organizational plan, although I fear that we are short pitching too. When this team trades Paul Molitor for Kevin Reimer I will panic.

[silversurferr]

Yeah, offseason is not what I wanted so far. However, this ain't the same situation as the 90's, but you did point out some troubling similarities. The big difference, I think, will be whatever trades Melvin makes before next spring. That's the only way to fill the big holes in the roster (although bringing in the Big Unit for one year would be interesting; if he pitches as well as last year, it would be like signing Sheets for one year, but without the longterm risk). I think Weeks, Hall and maybe Hart will be moved for pitching. Jeffress and Weeks to the Orioles for BP help and a 2B? Hall and Hart to the Giants? If Hart is moved, could we make a move for Abreu? Mark and Dougie have shown willingness to take a risk, and we have enough young talent to make a significant move without destroying the future. That is the biggest difference between now and then. Gotta pull the trigger though.

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

Comparing the starting pitching is a little tricky. 1992 Brewers starters were filthy down the stretch, but never really repeated that success afterwards. The 2009 Crew could outpitch that group post-1992, but that 1992 group was better than the staff we had in 2008.

[Outlander]

I agree with you on the starting pitching. I was around 15 at the time and if I recall correctly Navarro and Eldred were just as highly thought of as Gallardo and Parra, plus they had good seasons in '92 to back it up. Wegman had back to back good seasons in '91 and '92 even though the record didn't necessarily reflect it in '92.

[biedergb]

A potential big difference between the two is what they did after the respective offseason fallouts. In 1993, the team tried to keep players around, and continued to make middling signings/changes. They also had a big chance to help stock up the franchise with 3 #1 picks in the draft I believe and missed on the mark badly -- although D'Amico and Wunsch had nice careers, not the windfall you would expect.

 

If Melvin/Mark A. continue to try to lock up the position player (Hart & Hardy would be next, assuming Fiedler will just play out the string), and focus on continued player development. Then If we use our windfall of draft picks (Potentially 8 of the top 110 picks) wisely, we have the chance to continue to stay competitive AND give ourselves the chance to signficantly improve when the time is right (a la CC trade this past year). The 1993 management/ownership did not follow these steps, and our farm system was notoriously awful (Scott Karl, Steve Woodard, Mark Loretta are the best the '90's had to offer IRIC).

[TheRealMattKain]

"I'll give you that the young offensive core wasn't nearly as talented as the current one"

 

I don't think that's necessarily true. Certainly not in the perspective of 1993. Jaha's best years he hit .313/.389/.579, .300/.398/.543 and .276/.414/.556. He also had years were he hit 34 and 35 HR and drove in 111 and 118 runs. Listach was coming off ROY season. There was no reason to believe it was to be his high water mark. Vaughn was a 4 time All Star who once hit 50 HR and twice more was over 40. Hamilton had a long productive career with a career BA of .291 and a career OBP of .360. Nilsson was dogged by ailments but had one of the prettiest swings I've ever seen and he ended with a career .817 OPS, including an incredible 1996 where he hit .331/.407/.525.

The young offensive group of 1992 might have been as talented as our current group, but the big advantage that we have now is that our current stars are hitting their prime at the same time. It's true, the '92/'93 players that you listed all had some good years, but it's not as if those peak years that you listed happened in '93 or that there was any indication in '92 that those players would have great years.

 

John Jaha: Jaha had his great years in 1995, 1996, and 1999 (as an A). In 1992, he put up a lackluster OPS+ of 70 in 133 AB. In 1993 he was slightly above average.

Pat Listach: Yeah, he won ROY in '92, but his numbers weren't really that great. The award was more of a product of a poor rookie crop (and I think you can argue that someone like Lofton or Fleming should have won the award). In 1993, Listach was downright terrible.

Greg Vaughn: Again, Vaughn was an all-star in '93, '96, '98, and '01. He didn't hit 40 homers until '96. His best year where he hit 50 homers wasn't until '98 as a Padre. He was coming off of a .228/.313/.409 season in '92 - not a lot of reason to get excited.

Dave Nilson: Nilson didn't put up an OPS+ above 100 until '95. His best seasons were '96 and '99. His '92 line of .232/.304/.354 wasn't much to write home about.

Nothing against these players, but they certainly were not hitting their prime or even putting up above average numbers around 1992/1993. However, Fielder, Braun, Hardy, and Hart have already proven that they are star players (or at least close to it).

[kmcasper23]

I must say I don't really think the 2009 team will fall into the same kind of season as the 93 Brewers. Remember the 92 Brewers won a ton of games in September just to turn an average season into a near playoff appearance. They basically had one hot month that almost got them to the playoffs, while this year's team played well most of the season. Not only that but I can't remember being as excited about Vaughn, Jaha, and Listach as I am about Braun, Fielder, and Hardy. Another point is that the Brewers in 93 played in a better division than the current Brewers do, with the Blue Jays winning WS, and having the Yankees and Red Sox in their division. There also was no wild card in 93 like there is now.