Cameron for Melky Cabrera? Nick Swisher?

[rluzinski]

UZR/150 games for Cabrera last year was exactly 0. A perfectly mediocre defensive CFer. Cameron was 13.3 runs above average (or about 1'3 wins). Of course, Cabrera is 24 and Cameron is 36, so for next year, I'd be tempted to call Cameron a win better than Melky at most, defensively. That's still a potentially large difference, of course.

 

2009 Marcel Projections:

 

Cabrera: .271/.333/.383/.716

Cameron: .243/.328/.436/.765

 

Now Cameron projects to be about a league average CFer for next year, which costs pretty close to $10 mil these days. So in that sense, he's not really worth anything in a trade. Of course, specific needs by a franchise and varying financial resources from team to team needs to be considered as well. Cabrera projects to be a decidedly below average CFer for 2009, so Melvin would have to buy talent elsewhere to have any hope of making this trade result in a net gain for the Brewers in 2009.

 

Is Cabrera arbitration elibible for the 2009 season?

[JohnBriggs12]

Cabrera has a lot of upside...only 24 years old. Hopefully he can evolve into an everyday CF. It's just that a lot of us don't like the direction this team seems to be headed, after their first playoff appearance in 26 years. Cabrera certainly isn't going to be a huge offensive boost next year for the Brewers.

 

Of course, a lot of attitudes around here will change should the Brewers sign someone like an Adam Dunn.

What direction should they go? They're losing Sabathia and Sheets. They need pitching A 36 year old Mike Cameron making $10 million batting .240 and striking out 175 times wasn't going to overcome that even if he did hit his 30 HR and got his 80 or so RBI. Sure Cabrera doesn't have much power, but he balances out the lineup, and should hit for a higher average than Cameron.

 

The biggest offensive problem for the Brewers now is Catcher. Kendall gives you nothing offensively and he's in his mid 30's too.

 

Where you going to play Dunn? Can he catch? Did the Brewers get sent back to the AL?

 

Kapler has value not just for occasional starts in CF, but as insurance in case Hart stays in the funk he ended the season in.

[Marc Newfield of Dreams]

Less pop, less K's. Wash as a defensive CF. Younger. Less expensive.

 

Big picture I like it. If Cabrera allows us to dump Cam and Hall's K's and $$, and possibly brings in a young arm that can start right away, I love it.

[RU Rah Rah]

Cabrera just turned 24 in August, no? He's not terrible, and he still has time to figure it out. (Not the most ringing endorsement, I know.)

 

I wouldn't say that it was especially urgent to move Cameron, but I hope that the $$$ savings will be plowed into starting pitching.

[Thurston Fluff]

If it is a straight up one for one deal I think it means they want more than one starter and one reliever more than they want offense. If this means they can get two free agent starters instead of one I'm all for it. What we have now is a team that has no pitching depth at all. If trading Cameron for a cheaper alternative gets us some protection from injury then it would compensate for the difference in the two players.

[Tbadder]

Geez, I just can't believe we're acting like the Brewers have a choice. Simply put they are not going to be competitive next year, and they never were going to be. I don't care how nice it is to have Mark A.'s money around, this is still the smallest market in the league. Our salary base from last year could not be maintained even in the short term. The only hope is the farm system. There's no interim hope. There's no bridge; there's ugly stop-gaps and the farm system. For god sakes we can't even afford to make the kind of contract mistake that Bill Hall represents. We're left to hope that young players can blossom (here's hoping on Melky's star) so that they can walk away later in the further hope that were might catch lightning in a bottle via the draft, or some team trying to make the playoffs overpays.

 

Look, we've already been incredibly lucky picking up New York's 1st round pick and a sandwich. Now lets do whatever we can to make sure Sheets doesn't end up in a Yankee uniform as well. In any case we've got to keep crossing our fingers, because the one thing Milwaukee will never, ever be--is a player.

 

And why would the Yankees give up a young pitcher? If we were Yankees fans would we be all about dumpimg Hughes or Kennedy for a one year, strike out meister who can play defense? I wouldn't be. I'd do what I could to hold onto every young pitcher I got. Oh yeah, and I'd also look to deal with small market teams who have to trade value for unrealized potential that's more than proven it's not gonna happen anyways.

 

Maybe this deal does allow them to sign a pitcher, but that pitcher will be someone like Randy Johnson or Kip Wells or Braden Looper--it's not gonna be anyone who represents the one thing the Brewers are desperate to have, the only thing that can ensure their competitiveness, cheap-productive-long-term talent, the most illusive commodity in major league baseball.

[zzzmanwitz]

1. Finish this trade, hopefully involve Bill Hall

2. Sign Dunn

3. Trade Fielder for Pitching

4. Move Corey Hart to 1B, Dunn to LF, Braun to RF.

5. Win baby, win!

[JohnBriggs12]

I think it was Haudricourt who brought up that Cabrera has trouble with English and that weighed on him in media crazed NY.

 

I think fellow Dominican Carlos Villanueva will be counted on to take Melky under his wing as a Brewer.

[JohnBriggs12]

1. Finish this trade, hopefully involve Bill Hall

2. Sign Dunn

3. Trade Fielder for Pitching

4. Move Corey Hart to 1B, Dunn to LF, Braun to RF.

5. Win baby, win!

In that scenario, there'd be no way you'd move Hart or Braun. You'd play Dunn there. Dunn is arguably the worst defensive OF in the game among regulars.

[rluzinski]

Swapping Cameron for Cabrera might result in more runs scored for the Brewers next year? It frustrates me that life long baseball fans can still not not have a clear picture of how runs are scored in this game. Get on base and hit for power. That's 98% of the equation. Cabrera shouldn't be expected to do either better than Cameron next year, so his inclusion in the Brewers' lineup likely will result in less runs scored. It's not even very close.

 

I don't hate this deal long term but can't we at least agree on the obvious? In 2009, Melky represents a downgrade offensively and defensively from Cameron.

[steve267268]

There are only two scenarios in which i like this trade as it stands:

 

1. We have a CF waiting to be acquired whether it is through trade or free agency, and this salary dump allows us to make the move.

 

2. We are secretly in the running for one of the major bats out there and are freeing up the money to sign them.

 

About Hall... Unless the Yankees wanna give us something really outstanding for Hall and Cam, I'd keep Hall and see if the LASIK helped him at all. He could really hit before he had the eye problems.

[JJHardy7]

Some of the negative thoughts around here...good thing baseball doesn't start on December 11th.

 

Less pop, less K's. Wash as a defensive CF. Younger. Less expensive.

 

Big picture I like it. If Cabrera allows us to dump Cam and Hall's K's and $$, and possibly brings in a young arm that can start right away, I love it.

 

I agree. I really wasn't a fan of getting Cam to begin with, but he provided some nice defense and a solid bat (which didn't really fit into what the Brewers needed). Cameron isn't going to get better though. He's peaked and who knows when the bottom will fall out at his age. Getting a younger player who may not have the same skill set isn't a bad thing. I think the most important thing is what happens when the trade is made. Are there more players included? What if we include Hall also? Or what if this allows the Brewers to sign Sheets?

 

I think Sheets and Cabrera > Cam. I don't think it's going to be a one for one deal and I also don't think the Brewers are going to sit on their hands until spring training. It's early and this move I think will really get the ball rolling and give the Brewers a lot of flexibility. Let's also not forget that many 'experts' are predicting that many mid to slight above mid level free agents will not get contracts in the past. I think Stark was on M & M this morning and projected that many 3-year 21 million dollar deals will be one year 2.5 million due to the economy. This could give the Brewers a ton of flexibility to go after quite a few players that will simply hope for a better contract next off-season.

[colbyjack]

I'm guessing this trade gets finalized after the Rule 5 draft. There were reports of Alan Horne being included in this deal, who is eligible for that draft. If he doesn't get selected in the Rule 5, he can be traded and added to the organization without placing him on the 40-man roster, and he would give the team depth in the upper levels of the minor leagues, something Melvin and Macha have both expressed a desire for the past 2-3 days.

 

If Hall does become a part of this trade, and Sheets becomes a member of the Yankees, the Yanks will have a significant Brewer look and feel to them next year.

[Schlitz001]

Buster Onley on ESPN could not confirm that this deal is done. On top of that he suggests that the Brewers might have signed Cameron in the first place to help keep Sabbathia, since he and Cameron are good friends. With Sabbathia gone, Onley suggests that the Brewers can now move Cameron.

[Fatter than Joey]

Is Cabrera arbitration elibible for the 2009 season?

 

Russ -- from Rotoworld -- 2008: Near Minimum, 2009 Super Two?, 2010-12: Arb. Eligible, 2013: Free Agent

 

So, he may qualify for Arby's in 2009.

[Tbadder]

I think Stark was on M & M this morning and projected that many 3-year 21 million dollar deals will be one year 2.5 million due to the economy. This could give the Brewers a ton of flexibility to go after quite a few players that will simply hope for a better contract next off-season.

 

I think you're exactly right. The Brewers will be slow to move and hopefully pick up the pieces near the end to pick up value. They'll get their pitching. it'll just be for whoever is left over.

[Fatter than Joey]

I don't hate this deal long term but can't we at least agree on the obvious? In 2009, Melky represents a downgrade offensively and defensively from Cameron.

 

Yeah -- I am not excited about this deal from a 2009 perspective as it stands today. If other things happen, fine... that could be exciting, but if we stand pat after this trade, it could be a long season.

[Oldcity]

Apparently Buster Olney reported the only hangup is deciding how much money the Brewers will throw in?? This seems to be getting even worse.

[Patrick425]

Cabrera shouldn't be expected to do either better than Cameron next year, so his inclusion in the Brewers' lineup likely will result in less runs scored. It's not even very close.

Russ, I'll agree that Cabrera will probably not give the same production as Cameron will next year. I know you are a huge stat guy. However, stats don't take into account the age of a player or where he is in his career. All they look at is what they have done up to this point in their careers. Arguably Cabrera's best years are ahead of him and Cameron is obviously on the downside of his career. It frustrates me that long term baseball fans can't see this. Because of this I don't think the production drop off will be as dramatic as the "on-paper" stats suggest. Not everything can be boiled down to numbers on a piece of paper.

[Fatter than Joey]

However, stats don't take into account the age of a player or where he is in his career.

 

Projections definitely take into account a player's age.

[JohnBriggs12]

Swapping Cameron for Cabrera might result in more runs scored for the Brewers next year? It frustrates me that life long baseball fans can still not not have a clear picture of how runs are scored in this game. Get on base and hit for power. That's 98% of the equation. Cabrera shouldn't be expected to do either better than Cameron next year, so his inclusion in the Brewers' lineup likely will result in less runs scored. It's not even very close.

 

I don't hate this deal long term but can't we at least agree on the obvious? In 2009, Melky represents a downgrade offensively and defensively from Cameron.

Here's your clear picture Rluzinski. You make it more difficult for the opposing pitcher by fielding a lineup with more variety than the Brewers had in 08. Hart, Braun, Hall and Weeks all saw their production drop with the insertion of yet another high strikeout, low contact free swinger in the lineup. Fielder's production dropped because righthanded pitchers could pitch around him more. The problem with your statistical analysis is that it discounts effects other hitters are having on the opposing pitcher.

 

The Brewers are banking on Cabrera returning to his 06 form when he got on at a .360 clip. If he can do that, he can hit in the 2 hole a spot the Brewers never adequately filled in 08.

[MessiahRp]

JB12 brings up a decent point with Kapler. What kind of productivity could we expect out of a Kapler/Cabrera platoon?

I really don't want to see Kapler playing centerfield unless it is a dire emergency. Kapler was fine in a part time role last year and arguably played above his head, I certainly wouldn't count on that same production this year especially if he get 100 more AB's or so

Agreed. JohnBriggs12's Kapler point is not one I consider a valid reason to do the trade for Melky. Look, Kapler had a nice 2008 but I don't think he's ever going to be good enough to be more than a 4th OF and at this point in his career his numbers are far more likely to decline than improve.

 

I'm surprised with the huge emphasis thrown around here on OPS that so many people seem to think a guy with a .703 career OPS is fine to be patrolling CF. I think Melky represents Tony Gwynn Jr. with slightly more power and that's not saying a lot.

 

And to be honest with the way that we've approached this offseason thusfar, with the exception of offering CC $100-110 million (although they knew he was not going to take that) we're going bargain basement cheap and another salary dump doesn't exactly give me or probably most Brewers' fans confidence that they're going to spend that money elsewhere.

 

There are guys out there that can help us but Melvin appears to have written off Hoffman who in a one year deal would be a solid pickup, seems hesitant on Fuentes and frankly has zero answers as to who he should acquire to be a SP and starting 3B (and no, Mike Lamb is not the answer).

 

For our team's needs we could get a Brad Penny for a very reasonable price (2 years/$12 million?) and if he bounces back we have an ace for less than half the price of Suppan. We could spend one or even two years on Hoffman and pay less than we would with Fuentes. We could acquire an Adam Dunn which would make the Melky move a salary dump but one for a fourth OF, not a Starter. Or we could put Dunn at first and deal Prince/Hall for Beltre and Morrow where we have a possible third young gun for our rotation and our 3B needs are solved at least long enough for Gamel to be ready.

 

The worry I think I have is that with all that money coming off the books from Sheets, Gagne, et al (and that should far eclipse the Arby raises), are the Brewers content to sit back on their heels and not spend money hoping that last year's success will at least carry over at the ticket counters? It seems like dumping salary to not acquire real quality players (which thusfar the moves that have made have not exactly been high quality) is a way for Attanasio to make back some of the money he lost last year. Although with the high level of season/playoff ticket sales I can't imagine he lost much.

 

Rp

[fondybrewfan]

Apparently Buster Olney reported the only hangup is deciding how much money the Brewers will throw in?? This seems to be getting even worse.

That can't possibly be ture, why else do this trade other than getting rid of salary. Paying part of Cam's salary makes no sense whatsoever, maybe if him and Melky are equals but they are clearly not equals

[Patrick425]

However, stats don't take into account the age of a player or where he is in his career.

 

Projections definitely take into account a player's age.

I didn't say "projections". I said "stats"

[Brian the Automator]

I guess I don't understand what the fascination is with Melky Cabrera. His minor league numbers have never screamed huge upside to me, and his major league production (so far) certainly hasn't been anything to write home about. Melky just seems like he's part of the NYY prospect hype machine.

 

.767 career minor league OPS (.347 OBP)

.703 major league OPS (.329 OBP)

 

Is this supposed to be exciting? I really hope it's more than a one-for-one deal, because it just seems to me that Cameron was barely worth re-signing if this is the return.