Cameron for Melky Cabrera? Nick Swisher?

[trwi7]

Lets' look at Swisher's career numbers vs his 2008 numbers.

Career GB/FB - .79
2008 GB/FB - .78

Career BB% - 13.9%
2008 BB% - 14.2%

Career K% - 25.5%
2008 K% - 27.2%

Career LD% - 19.0%
2008 LD% 20.9% (career high)

Career BABIP - .279
2008 BABIP - .251

Looks like Swisher had a lower than normal BABIP which caused a drop in batting average and in turn hurt his SLG%.

Also from an article on fangraphs.

In a study I recently co-authored, I found that Swisher was one the unluckiest players on balls in play in 2008. I found his expected BABIP to be .294, much higher than his actual BABIP. If we credit Swisher for his lost hits, his 2008 line becomes .249/.356/.447 - not much different from his career line of .244/.354/.441 (and his career line includes his miserable 2008 stats).

http://www.fangraphs.com/...sher-should-rebound-in-09

[sbrylski]

Also, his home run power did decrease, as his HR/FB rate did not increase, despite the fact that he was playing hlf his games in a stadium that increases Home Runs by 30%. If he was hitting the ball the same as 2006/2007, that % should have increased by a decent margin.

 

It did increase, from 11.6% in 2007 to 14.8% in 2008.

[colbyjack]

I guess I'm curious to know if Swisher does rebound and return to his career averages, is he worth the trade by the possible dip in defense in CF, regardless if it's Swisher or Hart playing out there? Again, the walks are nice, and having a switch hitter in the lineup would also be a nice addition, but I'm not sure if it's worth it.

 

Also, not that this matters too much, but doesn't he have a pretty bad reputation? I know Ozzie Guillen butts heads with a lot of people, but I seem to remember his getting some negative press about his attitude.

[Never Outhustled]

You should look at his home/away splits for 2007 and 2008. In 2007, Swisher hit 8 HR at Home. In 2008, he hit 19 HR at home. Looking at his home/away splits, I would be wondering why he performed so poorly on the road in 2008 with an OPS of below .600.

These are the kind of things that worry me with Swisher. Theres just so many oddities. Was his poor HR totals at home in 2007 just statistic annomoly, or in part because Oakland is a tough HR park. Then did his 2008 HR totals jump up at home because US Cellular Field inflates HR totals? Or was it just numbers evening out. The HR totals jumping at home in 2008, which drove up his home OPS makes sense because of the ballpark. His showing on the road may be a better example of the player he is. Of course, most players play better at home.

 

But then again, I don't believe that half a season is more instructive than a player's career, so it wouldn't prevent me from acquiring Swisher

Your right, it isn't much data to go on, but he only had 2 successful seasons also. His first full big league season was similar to 2008. He put up bigtime minor league numbers, but did it in major hitters parks/leagues.

[craigharmann]

Granted it's ESPN, but I heard this afternoon on the radio that the Yanks are considering trading either Nady or Swisher to the Nationals. I don't want that to happen.

[Weirdos19]

It seems to me that the Yankees are in salary dump mode now. They should never have made the trade to bring Swisher in. I think we could take advantage of them.

 

How about Cameron and Hall to NY with Igawa, Swisher, and a reliever coming back?

 

Then the Crew signs Wigginton to a 3/18m deal.

 

Weeks 2B

Hardy SS

Braun LF

Fielder 1B

Hart CF

Swisher RF

Wigginton/Lamb 3B

Kendall C

[sbrylski]

I disagree that the Yankees are in a "salary dump" mode. They just have too many corner OF and 1B, with Tex/Matsui/Nady/Swisher all under contract. They really need a CF.

[Hate those Rodents]

I don't think I'd go three years with Wiggington. Not that he isn't worth it. I am of the thinking though that Gamel will prove to be the answer at third, meaning we'd only really need a one year stop gap at third base.

[homer]

I guess I'm curious to know if Swisher does rebound and return to his career averages, is he worth the trade by the possible dip in defense in CF, regardless if it's Swisher or Hart playing out there?

That's kind of how I feel too. As Melvin mentioned defense will need to be better given that the brewers are losing two strikeout pitchers in CC and Sheets.

[Dmiles23]

I'll throw in my 2 cents here. I've always been a Nick Swisher fan. He just always seems to go all out, and yet have a smile on his face. But I agree with the couple that are wondering if his bat would outweigh the lack of CF defense we would have. I just really like having a true CF out there... and just love watching Cam play out there. If Swisher was more of a sure thing at the plate, I'd say sure, why not? But who knows if he's gonna hit .220 or .260?

 

While thinking about this, and looking at the Yankees situation, a thought came to me. What would everyone think of Nady? To me, he is a more sure stick. So if you are moving Hart to CF, I think his bat would offset the switch. I know he's only under contract for 1 more season. And I know he's a righty. But he does hit RHP pretty well, .270/.317 in his career. I know there's probably stats somewhere to tear this apart, but just a thought.

[Never Outhustled]

Granted it's ESPN, but I heard this afternoon on the radio that the Yanks are considering trading either Nady or Swisher to the Nationals.

We know we can get Swisher for Cameron, but I'm not comfortable with the risk involved with Swisher, but do the Nationals have a player we'd like? They really don't have much.

 

Pittsburg and Cinci are also interested in Swisher or Nady. Could they have a pitcher we like?

[Ennder]

I guess I'm curious to know if Swisher does rebound and return to his career averages, is he worth the trade by the possible dip in defense in CF, regardless if it's Swisher or Hart playing out there? Again, the walks are nice, and having a switch hitter in the lineup would also be a nice addition, but I'm not sure if it's worth it.

 

No he isn't worth it for this year at least. Cameron is simply better than Swisher once you add in defense and it isn't really a close race. The reason they do the deal is for the future seasons which I don't know if it is worth it or not.

[logan82]

Swisher would give us more flexibility at 1B and the corner outfield spots in 2010 and beyond.

 

The Brewers had a good defense last year for the first time in a very long time and I would hate to take a step back.

[PeaveyFury]

No he isn't worth it for this year at least. Cameron is simply better than Swisher once you add in defense and it isn't really a close race. The reason they do the deal is for the future seasons which I don't know if it is worth it or not.

 

It seems as though the main reason for why the Brewers would even be considering this deal is not being mentioned by many posters- the 5 million in savings that the Brewers get and probably then use to acquire a pitcher. Really, that's the only reason the Brewers are even talking about trading Cameron for the likes of Melky Cabrera in the first place.

 

It's probably correct to say that factoring in defense and offense, Cameron is a better option for the team than Swisher. But with the complete equation of Cameron vs. Swisher and a pitcher, it probably comes out in the Brewers favor (obviously depending on who they'd go out and acquire).

[Oldcity]

I've always liked Swisher. I'd also bet that he rebounds this year. His offensive approach is something the Brewers really need. Also he's under contract until 2011 with a club option for 2012. I understand Cameron's defense makes him more valuable, but here's the way I see it.

 

Cameron in 2009>Swisher in 2009

 

Swisher for 3-4 years plus an extra 5 mil in 2009>Cameron for one year

[Crewin06]

Cameron in 2009>Swisher in 2009

 

Swisher for 3-4 years plus an extra 5 mil in 2009>Cameron for one year

 

Swisher for 3-4 years plus and extra 5 mil in 2009 and 17-26 million commited to Swisher for 2010-2012<<<<<<<

 

There I updated it for you.

 

I love how everyone that brings up the 5 million in cost savings for next year convienently forgets that he is owed an average of 8.5 million for the following 2-3 years after next. Any cost savings the Brewers get next season gets negated and then some in the following 2 years. If Swisher doesn't rebound like alot of you think he will the Brewers have another potential anchor hanging around their necks. With Suppan and Hall already on the roster how many more do we need. I am tired of watching dead money play horribly at Miller Park and this is the exact type of deal that could easily turn into alot of dead money taking up a roster spot.

[Fatter than Joey]

I love how everyone that brings up the 5 million in cost savings for next year convienently forgets that he is owed an average of 8.5 million for the following 2-3 years after next.

 

After Cameron leaves, we will have to pay someone to play CF -- so it is not like that 8.5 would not be spent at all...

[Invader3K]

I'm kind of torn on this. I'm really partial to Cameron, but if the Brewers can swing a deal for depth going forward, that could be a positive. I just don't know if Swisher is enough to make Melvin part with Cameron, though.

 

I still think if Cameron gets moved at all, it has to involve at least one pitcher, even if it's just an OK-ish reliever type.

[endaround]

Actually after Cameron leaves Cain will likely be in CF. Getting Swisher would most likely mean either Hart or Fielder will likely be gone in 2010 (assuming Cain doesn't fall flat in AAA). Swisher is a solid RFer which is valuable. I'd still rather hold out for Kennedy but Swisher is a much better return than Cabrera.

[RyDogg66]

I love how everyone that brings up the 5 million in cost savings for next year convienently forgets that he is owed an average of 8.5 million for the following 2-3 years after next.

 

After Cameron leaves, we will have to pay someone to play CF -- so it is not like that 8.5 would not be spent at all...

What did we sign Jeffrey Hammonds for 7 years ago? Wasnt that about 7-8 million a year? Then Gary Matthews Jr. got 10-11 million a few years back. To adequately fill CF we are gonna have to spend some cash, unless Lorenzo Cain can come up for 2010, but I think he is further away than that right now - and far from a sure thing.

[Oldcity]

Swisher has never had a season like 2007. Plus, your reference to "dead money playing horribly" doesn't even apply, because Swisher wasn't horrible last season. He certainly wasn't good, but not horrible. There have been multiple posts in this thread showing how unlucky he was last season. If the luck straightens out he'll be well worth 8.5 mil a year.

 

And just because Cameron's deal is off the books doesn't mean the Brewers automatically gain 10 mil for 2010 to spend elsewhere. Sure they'll have the money, but they'll have to spend it on Cameron's replacement in all likelihood anyway (Edit: I see like three people made this point while I was typing my post).

 

Finally, I'm not even sure the savings for 2009 are negated by Swisher's contract after '09. Five mil this season could go a long way when the Brewers are still in decent position to contend in 2009. Who knows how good the Brewers might be in 2010 or 2011?

[RyDogg66]

It also gives us security in 2010 and 2011 if we deal Fielder. Knowing we have a vet to play 1b if needed would make trading Prince after this year much easier.

[JohnBriggs12]

I live in Chicago area and my perspective is different than most of yours. The Chicago media and every Sox fan I know is thrilled the Sox are out from under Swisher's contract.

Good riddance is the overwhelming sentiment.

 

Not only was he bad last year, he pouted when benched for his poor play. It was very telling that even after Carlos Quentin got hurt, Guillen often played career minor leaguer Dwayne Wise instead of Swisher.

 

Of course that doesn't preclude him from rebounding into a productive player. But at $21 million in this market it's a risk I don't think the Brewers should take on. Especially when they have so many players moving into big contract years.

 

While I think Cameron is certainly not worth $10 million to the Brewers, I will certainly acknowledge he's a much better teammate than Swisher.

[Tbadder]

If the Yanks are willing to deal Swisher for Cameron, then I think they can be convinced to give up Kennedy. I wouldn't deal with the Yankees unless Kennedy is involved. When the Yanks are still sucking on Boston's hind teat at mid-season, then we'll find out how much Cameron is really worth. I refuse to be lowballed by another team just to free up money--that's loser mentality. Plus we've got Cain and Gillespie on the horizon. I want no part of Swisher and his dubious contract.

[rluzinski]

If the Chicago sports radio creew thinks Swisher is a bum, that's good enough for me. Trade for him AND sign him to an extension! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

 

I'm not sure Swisher is all that but his contract assumes he's about average, so what's the problem?