Cameron for Melky Cabrera? Nick Swisher?

[yoshii8]

If we would have been talking about acquiring Swisher before last season, I believe everybody would be all for it. I would expect him to rebound, and w/ the money savings and having Swisher locked up until '12 for a reasonable price, I believe this would be a good trade. There is also the Macha connection w/ Swisher that makes me believe this could happen.

[craigharmann]

The more I'm thinking about a Braun/Hart/Swisher OF, I like it. Or sign Abreu to play RF and trade Prince for pitching and play Swisher at 1st. There's some options and flexibility there.

[PeaveyFury]

Peavy it only favors the Brewers if Swisher rebounds.

 

Swisher still put up a ~.750 OPS last year, which while not great, isn't a heck of a lot less than I think you could project Cameron for in 2009 due to natural decline as a 36 year old. Depending on how big an upgrade in pitching they get for the savings, the Brewers could well come out ahead as long as Swisher doesn't regress further.

 

Also what about the $15 million in cost over 2010-2011. Doesn't any savings this season get negated by the costs that we have to take on in future years.

 

That's the calculated risk the Brewers have to take into account. If he does rebound, which seems quite possible for a 28-year-old, he'd be worth every penny in 2010 and 2011. If not, he becomes Bill Hall 2.

[Crewin06]

Again why would we trade Cameron for Swisher instead of just trading Cameron for nothing or low level prospects and signing someone like Bobby Abreu or Adam Dunn to patrol the OF.

 

Neither of those players was really better than Swisher in 06-07, and they would probably cost more than Swisher in 2009.

Abreu had a better combined years OPS and had 50 more stolen bases in that time period plus he would probably cost a bit more but would not need a 3 year contract. Dunn on the other hand had 100 more points of combined OPS over those two years.

 

And never mind that you are not betting on a comeback. Remember the Brewers were relying on a Bill Hall comeback last year and he had an even more disastrous year than 2007. That could easily happen to Swisher. There is just something about 2 teams giving up on him in 2 year and a third team wanting to trade him. Call it the Johnny Estrada Correlation. There is just something that does not sit right with Swisher.

[PeaveyFury]

Abreu had a better combined years OPS and had 50 more stolen bases in that time period plus he would probably cost a bit more but would not need a 3 year contract. Dunn on the other hand had 100 more points of combined OPS over those two years.

 

But if people are concerned about the loss of defense from Cameron to Swisher, they should be really terrified about going from Cameron to Abreu, since he's absolutely horrific in RF defensively.

That could easily happen to Swisher.

 

Absolutely, but I don't think anyone has been saying that it's not a possibility.

[kramnoj]

Crewin06, do you realize you are completely ignoring defense?

 

Even if Swisher doesn't improve, if he plays a solid corner OF in 2009 he will be worth close to his salary. The other two years are certainly gambles, but sometimes you have to make gambles in baseball to get good payoffs. With a team like the Brewers, gambles like that can sink you or save you, but you need the big payoffs to rise above other teams.

 

As far as teams trading or trying to trade Swisher, I don't see any need to look for nefarious motives. The A's traded him away because he had value. The Yankees may trade him away because they signed Teixeira and right now they have more millionaire players than spots to play them. And they would trade him because he brings a switch-hitter to the Brewers, who are looking to become less RH.

[Crewin06]

Peavy it only favors the Brewers if Swisher rebounds.

 

Swisher still put up a ~.750 OPS last year, which while not great, isn't a heck of a lot less than I think you could project Cameron for in 2009 due to natural decline as a 36 year old. Depending on how big an upgrade in pitching they get for the savings, the Brewers could well come out ahead as long as Swisher doesn't regress further.

 

Also what about the $15 million in cost over 2010-2011. Doesn't any savings this season get negated by the costs that we have to take on in future years.

 

That's the calculated risk the Brewers have to take into account. If he does rebound, which seems quite possible for a 28-year-old, he'd be worth every penny in 2010 and 2011. If not, he becomes Bill Hall 2.

Man I am really going nuts. I just can't see how so many people can be behind this turd of a trade. Swisher had an OPS of .742 last season. Cameron has never had a season that poor and he has played in some of the biggest pitcher friendly parks in the league in Safeco, Petco, and Shea. Why would a small market team even think about taking this risk? If the upside was a .950 or 1.000 OPS hitter maybe but he is not that type of hitter.

[Crewin06]

Kramnoj, what about the White Sox?

[kramnoj]

Swisher had an OPS of .742 last season. Cameron has never had a season that poor

 

You should look at Cameron's age 25 season when he OPSed .621. If you are just going to look at Swishers OPS, you should note that his best years came in a stadium that is a moderate pitchers park. He wouldn't translate to the hitter you are looking for, but then you are ignoring defense. If you don't value defense, there is no way that you will see Swisher as an attractive player, because that is a significant part of his value.

 

Edit:

 

Kramnoj, what about the White Sox?

 

I already discussed this previously, but I wouldn't value the opinion of one GM over the whole career of one player.

[PeaveyFury]

I just can't see how so many people can be behind this turd of a trade. Swisher had an OPS of .742 last season.

 

Yeah, and he had OPS' in the mid-800's the two seasons before that. If you make the trade, you're betting on a rebound year. That's why he's both a risky acquisition and one with a significant potential rewards, because if he rebounds to a mid-800 OPS player, the Brewers got him for well below what they should have given up for that type of player.

 

Cameron has never had a season that poor

 

At 36, he's not going to be going up from where he's at now, and is a fairly safe bet to be going the other way going forward.

 

Why would a small market team even think about taking this risk?

 

Because getting Swisher and a pitcher for Cameron and the freed up salary gives you has the potential to make the team better to some degree. Three weeks ago they were talking about getting Melky Cabrera for Cameron, when Cabrera hasn't even touched the success that Swisher has had already. If the Brewers are in need of salary relief, and the Brewers have determined that trading Cameron is the best way to get that relief, they should at least attempt to get a player that could be useful to them in 2009 in return.

[PeaveyFury]

You should look at Cameron's age 25 season when he OPSed .621.

 

Also playing for the White Sox in the hitter-friendly US Cellular Field, by the way.

[strawbossisevil]

Man I am really going nuts. I just can't see how so many people can be behind this turd of a trade.

It's because some of us recognize that he put up an OPS in the mid 800s in a pitcher's park the season before last. We aren't so short sighted to only look at the past season and stop there. He was a very good hitter in Oakland, one bad year is not going to have me thinking he couldn't put up similar numbers again, especially now that is in his prime.

 

Plus, added on top of the fact that he's been an above average outfielder, is the fact that signing him would also free up money for bringing in a pitcher. Once again, looking at the big picture, rather just merely comparing Cameron and Swisher.

 

Added on top of that the fact that Cameron is getting older, and will not likely be able to continue the success he had last season. And since he won't get a two months rest to start the season, he may have to be sat more often for the likes of Tony Gwynn Jr in order to make it through the season healthy.

 

Looking at all of that, it boggles my mind how someone could think this is a "turd of a trade". No one here is saying that there is no risk to it, there always will be when you bring someone in on a contract of any length beyond a year, but if you honestly look at the entire list of the positives I went through above, I don't know how you couldn't admit that this could not at least turn out reasonably for the crew, quite possibly, or even likely, in more ways than one.

 

Swisher is a prime buy low candidate, because he did have a poor season in Chicago, but that is exactly what makes him so valuable in a trade. Is that you buy on him at his lowest point and it costs our team very little to obtain above average talent. There are always those who hate buying low because the see the player at his low point, and don't look beyond that to what he could, and likely should, be.

[Crewin06]

You should look at Cameron's age 25 season when he OPSed .621.

 

Also playing for the White Sox in the hitter-friendly US Cellular Field, by the way.

Except New Commisky was a bigger Field at the time.

[davego]

Just a thought, but if DM gets this deal done, I wonder if there is any chance for some $ to come with Swisher? If the 'Crew takes his $21 million and loses Cam's $10 million...maybe a split of the $11 or so left over? That would seem to be a very DM move.

[Never Outhustled]

Most keep insisting Swisher will rebound, but nobody wants to address his massive loss in muscle mass. Can a skinny version of Swisher really be expected to hit like the muscled up version of Swisher in 2006?

[PeaveyFury]

Except New Commisky was a bigger Field at the time.

 

17 feet down the lines doesn't make the rest of the argument for acquiring Swisher any less valid.

[PeaveyFury]

Most keep insisting Swisher will rebound

 

Most keep saying there's a strong possibility that Swisher will rebound, no one is insisting that it will happen for sure.

[MNBrew]

The more I'm thinking about a Braun/Hart/Swisher OF, I like it. Or sign Abreu to play RF and trade Prince for pitching and play Swisher at 1st. There's some options and flexibility there.

I'm right with you, esp. on your 2nd idea. Tweaked from an earlier post...

 

- Sheets re-signs in Milwaukee, (costs MIL $$)

- Brewers take on ALL of Swisher's & Kei Igawa's contract because NY takes Suppan in addition to Cameron, too, (saves MIL some good $$)

- Brewers trade Prince for a motherlode of top pitching talent (I keep thinking of a Seattle deal or also the Angels), & (saves MIL some $$)

- Abreu gets a bit real and comes to MIL at real (not NYY) market value (costs MIL $$)

 

Someone also suggested this in another thread and I think I like it even better:

 

- Fielder + Suppan for Buchholz, Ellsbury, & Lowell

- Cameron for Swisher

- money still available for Sheets

 

OF: Braun ®, Ellsbury (L), Hart ®

IF: Lowell ®, Hardy ®, Weeks ®, Swisher (S)

C: Kendall ®

bench: Hall ®, Lamb (L), Rivera ®, 2 OF (Kapler ® -- my dream idea -- and Gwynn or Nixon (both L))

 

Rotation: Sheets, Gallardo, Buchholz, Parra, Bush

'Pen: Hoffman, McClung, Villanueva, Riske, Stetter, Julio, Swindle/Dillard/DiFelice/etc.

 

Similar L/R improvement to the above, more bench depth, less cost, and still some $$ to possibly sign Sheets. That's quite solid and set up well for the future!

 

I also wonder if you could get Garrett Anderson for cheap as a potential 4th starting OF (and if it'd be worth it).

[Never Outhustled]

Most keep insisting Swisher will rebound, but nobody wants to address his massive loss in muscle mass. Can a skinny version of Swisher really be expected to hit like the muscled up version of Swisher in 2006?

Most keep saying there's a strong possibility that Swisher will rebound, no one is insisting that it will happen for sure.

Way to clear that up, but I noticed you completely ignored the question? Is that because it essentially kills your argument?

[kramnoj]

I won't speak for anybody else, but I don't think Swisher's 2008 was a result of him being smaller than he was previously. Swisher was valuable in 2007, and his ISO in 2008 was very close to 2007. His 2008 BABIP of .251 seems to be much more important.

 

I GISed Swisher, and he does seem to be smaller than his A's days, but not so weak that he can't get the ball out of the infield. He seemed to suffer bad luck, and when your baseline is a .250ish hitter and you have bad luck getting hits, you are going to lose value.

[rluzinski]

Swisher projects to be around a .360/.450/.810 hitter next year. I don't think we should expect him to repeat 2008 or 2006 next year.

[PeaveyFury]

Way to clear that up, but I noticed you completely ignored the question? Is that because it essentially kills your argument?

 

You have proof of his "massive loss of muscle mass", or are you basing it on him 'looking thinner'?

 

As kramnoj points out, his decline in slugging seems more related to his decline in batting average rather than a decline in power. Unless "a massive loss of muscle mass" made him get fewer overall hits, it doesn't appear to be accurate or relevant at this point. If his average went back up 40 points, his slugging would be right back where it was in Oakland in 07.

[Never Outhustled]

As kramnoj points out, his decline in slugging seems more related to his decline in batting average rather than a decline in power. Unless "a massive loss of muscle mass" made him get fewer overall hits, it doesn't appear to be accurate or relevant at this point

A player can adjust his swing to make up for decreased strength. The adjustment could cause an inability to make consistent hard contact. It wouldn't affect his line drive rate, but it could affect how hard he is actually hitting the ball. Poor hitting mechanics would cause more ground balls, not decreased strength. That much more likely explains his drop in average than an entire season of terrible luck. I can buy into bad luck for a half season, but to call an entire season of terrible luck at the same time a player goes through a significant body style change a coincidence is pretty desperate.

 

Also, his home run power did decrease, as his HR/FB rate did not increase, despite the fact that he was playing hlf his games in a stadium that increases Home Runs by 30%. If he was hitting the ball the same as 2006/2007, that % should have increased by a decent margin.

[kramnoj]

Poor hitting mechanics would cause more ground balls, not decreased strength.

 

You are saying that he hit more ground balls in 2008, or am I misunderstanding your point? Fangraphs shows us that in 2008 his GB% was halfway between 2007 and 2006.

 

I'm not sure why you feel the need to call others desperate. You are the one who accused others of dodging questions but haven't responded to the correction of your claim that Swisher isn't in impact player in the OF.

 

Edit:

 

Also, his home run power did decrease, as his HR/FB rate did not increase, despite the fact that he was playing hlf his games in a stadium that increases Home Runs by 30%. If he was hitting the ball the same as 2006/2007, that % should have increased by a decent margin.

You should look at his home/away splits for 2007 and 2008. In 2007, Swisher hit 8 HR at Home. In 2008, he hit 19 HR at home. Looking at his home/away splits, I would be wondering why he performed so poorly on the road in 2008 with an OPS of below .600. But then again, I don't believe that half a season is more instructive than a player's career, so it wouldn't prevent me from acquiring Swisher.

[Hate those Rodents]

I like the idea of getting Swisher. A quality lefthanded bat that could man an OF spot for us for one year at the minimum, but also a guy that has some versatility and youth. Did Macha coach him in Oakland? I have a feeling this one might actually get done...