Cameron for Melky Cabrera? Nick Swisher?

[Crewin06]

Everybody realizes that Nick Swisher had a .742 OPS last season, right?

I understand that everybody loves OBP but its not out of this world.

Prince Fielder to Nick Swisher? Really? I don't think people realize how big of a downgrading .150 OPS points from a position really is.

If this is really the only option keep Cameron, Let Cain take over in 2010 and save yourself about 10 million while upgrading the defense dramatically.

For 20 million dollars coming off a .742 OPS season their better be a higher upside than a .865 season out of a OF/1B

[Crewin06]

I guess what I am trying to say is if the Yankees want Cameron a better deal IMO would be to trade Cameron to the Yankees for low level prospects or nothing and go hunting for replacements in the Free Agent market.

[strawbossisevil]

You do realize that Nick Swisher had a batting average of only .219 last season, which stands out because it is far below where his numbers have been throughout his career. It definitely stands out as a fluke, not something that should be expected of him going forward.

 

You raise his average back into the .250s/.260s where it has been very consistently before this past season, and his OPS will be well above .800. He had a down season, that happens. It happened to Corey Hart and your beloved Prince last year too, doesn't mean you ignore the player's potential.

 

And as many, many people have pointed out, Prince negates much of his value with his poor defense. Swisher on the other hand is a great defensive player at 1B, so you go from bad to really good.

 

I think you totally discount how bad of a 1B Prince really is, and I think you are shortsighted in only looking at Swisher's last season rather than looking at his career as a whole. If you look at how he's performed over the past three years, it is more likely that the drop is half of what you stated. And Swisher's defense more than makes up for the remaining gap.

 

And if you really want to just rely on last year's stats on what you think about these two players, Fielder only had an OPS of .879, Swishers was only .135 lower (if you want to get technical, I know you were overstating your point for dramatics, but its better to be accurate). Also, over their careers, Swisher's OPS is only .098 points lower than Fielder's. Hardly the .150 OPS points stated.

[JohnBriggs12]

You do realize that Nick Swisher had a batting average of only .219 last season, which stands out because it is far below where his numbers have been throughout his career. It definitely stands out as a fluke, not something that should be expected of him going forward.

 

You raise his average back into the .250s/.260s where it has been very consistently before this past season, and his OPS will be well above .800. He had a down season, that happens. It happened to Corey Hart and your beloved Prince last year too, doesn't mean you ignore the player's potential.

 

It would take a major reversal of form for Swisher to return just to his career norms. He was terrible in the 2nd half for the White Sox last year. After the break, he hit .191/.298/.427. He did hit some home runs, but of his 24 hit in 08, 19 were in the launching pad that is U.S. Cellular field. He was so bad, he was benched often down the stretch.

 

Put Fielder in U.S. Cellular, and he'd average 50 per year.

 

Swisher is an ideal 4th OF, not an everyday 1st baseman.

[strawbossisevil]

So what exactly do you think caused his decent at the age of 27, from being a solid above average OF, to being nothing other than a benchwarming 4th OF?

 

The fact that all you can point to is one half of one season to back that up is exactly my point. The guy had a horrible second half, of one season. Are we supposed to expect that this half season is supposed to tell us how he will perform going forward? Or could it be an outlier, where the rest of his career (aside from his bad three months) is telling us otherwise. I'll admit that even in his better half of last season wasn't his best, but let's be real here. Before last season the guy put up .864 and .836 in the monster of a stadium in Oakland.

 

But how are we to account for a player who is in the midst of his prime going from being a solid above average OF, and average 1B, to being someone who can't hold a starting job. What proof do you have that this wasn't just a down year? Down years happen, see Fielder and Hart.

 

This isn't a guy who like Bill Hall raked like an allstar for one season and then disappeared. He's been a very consistent above average player as he has approached his prime, minus last season.

 

I really think you guys are selling him very short.

[BrewCrewForever]

I like Swisher. Last year did scare me a little bit though. Before last season I would have done this deal in a heartbeat. Now, not so sure. Very tough call.

[Ennder]

Generally a half season of futility is just an outlier and doesn't repeat. Sometimes though it is Andruw Jones style freefall.

 

As for Hall he was pretty bad in 07 and 08, that is a trend most likely and not just an outlier.

 

I don't see Swisher being an upgrade over Cameron especially when you add in defense and there isn't a full time CF on the market. I think we will just keep Cameron.

[Crewin06]

Actually in Bill Hall's best season he had a better OPS than Swisher's best season, In Bill Hall's second best season he had a better OPS than Swisher's second best season and Bill Hall's third best season is very comparable to Swisher's third best season .768 to .740. Add into the fact that Hall plays a touger position and I think its not really close.

 

Strawboss- its fine that you think Swisher is going to rebound. He might and very well could. I just don't want to bet Mike Cameron and over $20 million in salary that he will rebound to an .865 OPS hitter. If he does the deal looks decent. If he doesn't we have another 2 year $16 million anchor strapped around our neck.

 

As for the .150 OPS difference between Swisher and Fielder. Last year Fielder's was .879 compared to Swishers .742 (So it was .137 if you really want to get technical) and the year before Fielder had 1.013 compared to Swisher's .836 a difference of .177. Considering Fielder is 3.5 years younger I wold bet on the gap staying at around .150.

[bklynbrewcrew]

The fact that Swisher was that bad last season especially in the second half and the fact our team defense would be far worse with Hart replacing cameron in center makes me say no to this deal. I also dont like the fact that Swisher has three years left on his deal at good money and if he doesnt produce he becomes a Suppan like albatross. The risks are just too great to make this deal.

[silversurferr]

About Fielder's fielding (funny when written like that): he should be able to improve. He is very young, and for a huge guy, is very agile. He seems to have decent (but not good) hands. Repitition and dedication to work could easily make him an average fielding first baseman. Whether Prince improves in the field this year will tell me alot about his work ethic. If he shows improvement in the field, therefore, it would be a good sign that the Brewers should keep him. Otherwise, he is looking at his father's career path.... As for Swisher; are you crazy? If we move Fielder, there better be a replacement that can hit. (Gamel, Hart). Swisher? Yikes. .250 25 65. Franklin Stubbs upside.

[kramnoj]

Swisher, as bad as he was last year, would have been about 21st by OPS compared to qualified 1B. I don't know what some people consider everyday, but at his worst he would be one of the top 25 or so at the position (probably higher, I haven't bothered to look at all the defensive ratings).

 

I thought there could be a Swisher-Cameron deal when Teixeira was signed, but I thought the Brewers might have to add something to the deal. Not a top prospect, maybe an A ball pitcher without big upside. If there can be a even Swisher-Cameron deal, I think that has to be made.

[strawbossisevil]

Swisher's OPS at .743.

 

http://sports.yahoo.com/m...lReyYo0UnSXAQZO2M..2FCLcF

 

Fielder's OPS at .879

 

http://sports.yahoo.com/m...lReyYo0UnSXAQZO2M..2FCLcF

 

So to be technically accurate, we were both wrong. It was .136

 

Fielder definitely raked out of his mind in '07. However I think you would do best to avoid at looking at individual seasons and look at bigger pictures. The big picture (career stats -which include Fielder's great '07 and Swisher's bad '08) suggest the difference would be under .100 OPS points. That's what the stats tell us. If you want to make a number up off the top of your head, you are welcome to, but I don't think that type of number holds any statistical credence if we are seeking to be objective when comparing players.

 

Both are entering their primes, so it is unlikely that we should see a fall of from either, with an improvement being far more likely for both (once again, talking objectively here).

 

I respect that you don't want to make the deal. You've made up stats in your mind that justify your position on it. I'll stick to looking at big picture stats, because history shows that tends to be the better, more objective way of looking at players.

[Crewin06]

Swisherhttp://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/stats?playerId=5937http://sports.espn.go.com...ayers/stats?playerId=5937

 

Your site has Swisher's OBP at .332, Slugging at .410, for an OPS of .743. It's probably a matter of rounding.

 

Anyways Kramnoj. Yes Swisher had an OPS that would have ranked 21st out of qualified 1st baseman last season. But you should qualify that by telling people that there were only 22 Qualified first baseman.

 

I don't know what to tell you Strawboss. Prince is entering his prime at 24. Swisher should be in his prime at 28. Both are not entering their prime. Lets just agree that we are not going to convince the other person. You don't want to hear about OPS or prior year numbers because somehow they come off the top of my head and don't hold any statistical credence when seeking to compare players. And I don't want to hear about how 3 years ago Swisher had an average offensive season for a Corner outfielder/1B and how he might be able to repeat that season for $21 million over 3 years.

[kramnoj]

Yes Swisher had an OPS that would have ranked 21st out of qualified 1st baseman last season. But you should qualify that by telling people that there were only 22 Qualified first baseman.

 

I could have added that, but what would that change? That there were 22 qualified hitters at 1B last year means that 8 teams didn't have a player play enough at the position to qualify. I'm going to guess that's because for most of the teams, they didn't have a guy who was good enough to play everyday.

 

Edit:

 

I was looking at the comps at bref of Swisher. They shouldn't be taken too seriously, but it's fun to look at the comps and see if there is anything they can show us of the shape of players in the past. Greg Vaughn is Swisher's most similar player at age 27. I thought it was interesting that Vaughn hit .224 at the age of 29 and bounced back to have a productive career for 5 or 6 more years.

 

Swisher is a low average hitter, and that is going to bother some people. But he can be a productive player while only hitting .250. It would be unusual for a player who has been good to be done at the age of 27. I think Swisher is a good risk for the next couple of years.

[MNBrew]

Interesting deal MNBrew, unfortunately I don't see the Yankees taking Suppan on top of giving up Swisher.

Then you graciously take Kei Igawa back in return as well and shake hands on the deal. :-)

[Never Outhustled]

I thought it was interesting that Vaughn hit .224 at the age of 29 and bounced back to have a productive career for 5 or 6 more years.

Vaughn had a bad season while recovering from shoulder surgury. That was pretty common not too long ago. Swisher regressed a little in 2007 and alot in 2008. Not just his numbers, but his build. He was once strongly built, but is now a rale. Steriods anyone? I'd let someone else figure that out. Too much risk for the small potential payoff. I agree with Briggs, Swisher should have been the perfect hitter for US Cellular Field, which according to Bill James increases homers by a whopping 30%. The fact that the Kenny Williams, a pretty savy GM, dumped him for nothing after giving top prospects to aquire him just 1 year earlier should tell us something about Swisher.

[kramnoj]

I wouldn't call a guy with OPS+ of 125 and 127 a small potential payoff. That's basically what Fielder did for the Brewers in 2008.

 

The fact that the Kenny Williams, a pretty savy GM, dumped him for nothing after giving top prospects to aquire him just 1 year earlier should tell us something about Swisher.

 

I think it says more about Kenny than anything about Swisher. It says that Williams is not patient. I think looking at Swisher's whole career is much more instructive than the decision of one GM.

[Never Outhustled]

I wouldn't call a guy with OPS+ of 125 and 127 a small potential payoff.

I would because I'm looking at the whole picture. Instead of isolating the only strong part of Swisher's game, his OPS+, I'm looking at him for his total worth, value wins. Swisher was worth just 8.1 over the last 3 years, Cameron was worth 11.7 over the same time period. Swisher was worth 3.8 in his best year, Cameron was worth 4.1 last year.

 

Thats not even factoring in the trickle down effect that bad defense has on a pitching staff. Less outs on balls in play more shorter outings from starters, which means more innings to be soaked up by the pen. That causes more innings pitched by the bullpen, causing decreased performance and more innings pitcher by lesser members of the bullpen.

[kramnoj]

I would because I'm looking at the whole picture.

 

If you were looking at the whole picture, you would include salary as part of the value discussion. If there is a straight Swisher-Cameron trade, you would mention the $4.7M that Melvin gets to use to get a pitcher now or to save for a mid-season acquisition. As far as strong parts of Swisher's game, it's not limited to offense. He has displayed above average-good defense as a corner OF.

[Never Outhustled]

He has displayed above average-good defense as a corner OF.

Too bad either him or Hart would have to play CF, where there both bad. Swisher's UZR stat doesn't show him to be the impact corner OF and 1B defender the media brags him up to be.

[kramnoj]

Too bad either him or Hart would have to play CF, where there both bad. Swisher's UZR stat doesn't show him to be the impact corner OF and 1B defender the media brags him up to be.

 

You're not looking at the whole picture here, either. Swisher's UZR in RF has been 14.2/150 in 201 games. That's not enough data to let us know if that's his true value, but I would certainly call that impact. If you don't, what number is your impact level?

 

As far as Hart is considered, his averagish performance in RF in 2008 wouldn't look good in CF, but he has played there well in the past in limited opportunities, and if his bat bounces back, he would be an overall package of above average to good at CF.

[sbrylski]

He has displayed above average-good defense as a corner OF.

Too bad either him or Hart would have to play CF, where there both bad. Swisher's UZR stat doesn't show him to be the impact corner OF and 1B defender the media brags him up to be.

 

Swisher's career UZR/150 in RF is 14.2. That's very good. He's -10.3 in CF though, so I'd definitely play Hart in CF over him, who actually has an above average UZR/150 during his short time in CF. Not saying he'll be above average in CF, but I don't think he'll be a disaster like some claim.

[PeaveyFury]

Swisher's career UZR/150 in RF is 14.2. That's very good. He's -10.3 in CF though, so I'd definitely play Hart in CF over him, who actually has an above average UZR/150 during his short time in CF.

 

Yeah, based on the sample we have, Hart in CF and Swisher in RF would be above average, but not as good as with Cameron in center. With the 5 million savings used for pitching, that probably tilts it towards the Brewers, especially if Swisher rebounds offensively, which would surely make him better offensively than Cameron.

[Crewin06]

Peavy it only favors the Brewers if Swisher rebounds. Also what about the $15 million in cost over 2010-2011. Doesn't any savings this season get negated by the costs that we have to take on in future years.

 

Again why would we trade Cameron for Swisher instead of just trading Cameron for nothing or low level prospects and signing someone like Bobby Abreu or Adam Dunn to patrol the OF.

[kramnoj]

Again why would we trade Cameron for Swisher instead of just trading Cameron for nothing or low level prospects and signing someone like Bobby Abreu or Adam Dunn to patrol the OF.

 

Neither of those players was really better than Swisher in 06-07, and they would probably cost more than Swisher in 2009.

 

Edit:

 

I also think we need to consider the trading partner here. AFAIK, the Yankees are the only team that has expressed interest in Cameron. In making a trade, the wants of the other team have to be taken into account. Right now, the Yankees probably don't see Swisher or Damon as a full time CF. They really don't want Melky to be a starting CF while one of Swisher/Nady/Damon is sitting on the bench.

 

At this point, I am somewhat surprised that it would be Swisher that would be traded as opposed to Nady, but maybe Cashman knows that Swisher is who Melvin would prefer and wants to make the trade.