Cameron for Melky Cabrera? Nick Swisher?

[davego]

I'm in the 'just keep Mike' crowd as well.

[fondybrewfan]

Normally I would tell myself that no sane GM would trade Cameron for Cabrera and take on Igawa's contract. There can't be any truth in the discusions.

 

Then I think back to last season signing Gagne, trading Estrada for Mota, and the signing of Suppan and I think to myself, Melvin has thrown a lot of good money after bad players before what is to stop him now.

So the Estrada trade was a bad trade? That is news to me. Seems like it worked out alright for the Crew.

 

But anyways the NY Daily News is once again reporting that the teams are trying to get Bill Hall into the package again

[Fatter than Joey]

So the Estrada trade was a bad trade? That is news to me. Seems like it worked out alright for the Crew.

 

I think it worked out better for the Mets.

[milwaukeesportsfan]

It seems to me that the Yankees need to trade for Cameron more than the Brewers need to trade Cameron. I would just sit on Cameron and go into the season expecting him to be the centerfielder and wait for the Yankees to offer something closer to equal value than an underachieving centerfielder and a crappy pitcher.

[Brian the Automator]

It seems to me that the Yankees need to trade for Cameron more than the Brewers need to trade Cameron. I would just sit on Cameron and go into the season expecting him to be the centerfielder and wait for the Yankees to offer something closer to equal value than an underachieving centerfielder and a crappy pitcher.

Exactly, surely a center fielder will go down in spring training for a contender at some point. Perhaps Cam's salary is holding up other moves, but it's not like they have to start getting a paycheck until opening day anyway.

[TooLiveBrew]

Perhaps one reason why all this talk has been so relatively public is to drum up interest in Cameron... showing other teams with interest that, 'Hey, we're totally going to trade this guy soon'? Maybe I'm getting too conspiracy-theory there, but I don't recall Melvin trades typically being this out in the open.

[Oldcity]

The only one I can think of was trade talks with the Cardinals last winter about Rolen. The Brewers seemed pretty open about that deal.

[Ennder]

Mota was between 0.5-1.0 runs above replacement so he pretty much earned his money and he might have been the difference between the Mets and Brewers making the playoffs given how bad the end of the Mets bullpen was.

 

Suppan pretty much earned his salary in 07 and before his injury in 08 but he was terrible after the injury. Gagne was a straight up risk of course but if he repeated his ERA from 07 he would have been worth something like $5M-6M and obviously they thought there was a chance the 2nd half was the fluke.

 

I guess I fail to see Melvin as making a ton of bad moves. The worst moves he has made have probably been giving extentions to Hall and Turnbow and giving away Gross when the team needed a LH bat.

[endaround]

Like I think its bad year to trade Fielder because the number of sluggers in FA its a go year to trade Cameron because the number of decent CFers out there is approximately zero. Getting a Keith Ginter type from the Yankees isn't a good return.

[yoshii8]

If was looking at Kei Igawa's stats w/ the Hanshin Tigers, and he was awesome in Japan. He was the strikeout leader 3 years, won their version of the Cy Young one year. I've heard that Ron Guidry messed w/ his mechanics a lot, and that is part of the reason he has struggled so badly. Might he be worth the risk? Here is his wiki page http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kei_Igawa

 

 

 

Year Team G W L SV IP K BB HR ERA

1998 Hanshin ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?

1999 Hanshin 7 1 1 0 15.1 14 13 1 6.46

2000 Hanshin 9 1 3 0 39.1 37 19 5 4.35

2001 Hanshin 29 9 13 0 192.0 171 89 11 2.67

2002 Hanshin 31 14 9 1 209.2 206 53 15 2.49

2003 Hanshin 29 20 5 0 206.0 179 58 15 2.80

2004 Hanshin 29 14 11 0 200.1 228 54 29 3.73

2005 Hanshin 27 13 9 0 172.1 145 60 23 3.86

2006 Hanshin 29 14 9 0 209 194 49 17 2.97

Total ? 190 86 60 1 1244 1174 395 116 3.14

[PeaveyFury]

I think it worked out better for the Mets.

 

The Mets gave up a guy that ended up being a very serviceable reliever for a guy that they cut a few days after the trade. Considering that the Mets' bullpen was horrible and the big reason for why the Brewers made the playoffs and they didn't, I couldn't disagree more.

 

And regarding Igawa, most people here are willing to scream about 'small sample sizes' with regards to any stats over less than a full season or two, yet people are willing to write off Igawa after a whopping 16 Major League appearances? I'm not saying or predicting that he's going to be wonderful in an extended opportunity, but his history suggests that the potential is certainly there for him to be serviceable in some role.

[endaround]

Mota's WPA was -0.49. Pretty sure the Mets aren't upset about jettisoning a pitcher who harmed his team and cost $3.5 m.

 

Yes Igawa has value, but its gamble at $12m on 29 year old who couls easily be passed his prime due to abuse by Japanese managers.

[piccione88]

John Heyman points out that the yankees want the Brewers to pick up some of Cameron's contract, or take on some of Igawa's contract. Igawa is not the other player in the deal, he is basically salary relief for the yankees. He has negative value for the Brewers and both sides realize this.

[PeaveyFury]

Mota's WPA was -0.49. Pretty sure the Mets aren't upset about jettisoning a pitcher who harmed his team and cost $3.5 m.

 

Only if his WPA wasn't better than the guys they replaced him with, right?

 

Yes Igawa has value, but its gamble at $12m on 29 year old who couls easily be passed his prime due to abuse by Japanese managers.

 

I think almost every recent report on the trade has the Yankees picking up some of the 12 million.

[monty57]

I'm in the 'just keep Mike' crowd as well.

I'm in the "I like Cameron and have no problem with him as our starting CF, but if you can get good value for him in a trade take it" crowd. I am also in the "Melky Cabrera is not good value in a trade" crowd.

 

But anyways the NY Daily News is once again reporting that the teams are trying to get Bill Hall into the package again

I dislike Hall's play and contract as much as anyone, but we do need to have a 3B next year, and I like Hall/Lamb more than Lamb playing everyday. I hope if Hall is in the trade that (A) it allows us to get a good pitcher in the deal and (B) Melvin has another trade in the wings that will net us a starting 3B, because it doesn't look like there's very much out there on the FA market.

[Chio151]

If Hall is in the deal, then there can never be Kei Igawa. It would have to be Ian Kennedy or the like.

 

 

Kennedy/Cabrera/Low-level Pitcher for Hall/Cameron?

[Fatter than Joey]

Considering that the Mets' bullpen was horrible and the big reason for why the Brewers made the playoffs and they didn't, I couldn't disagree more

 

Mota is/was a bad pitcher. At $3.5M I am sure they could and did find someone to suck just as hard for less money.

 

Only if his WPA wasn't better than the guys they replaced him with, right?

 

The big reason the Mets BP failed was because Heilman and Sosa struggled, and they were constants for both 07 and 08. Mota was the worst pitcher in the Mets BP in 2007, it made sense for them to release him, or jettison him somehow. Getting some chumps to pay his salary was a coup on their part.

 

The guy I can best tell replaced Mota was Duaner Sanchez, and he pitched about as good as Mota did -- for 1/4 the price.

[MJLiverock]

Has any Japanese pitching import ever lived up to the billing and expectations built upon him by having awesome numbers in Japan? DiceK was supposed to be unhittable and ridiculous numbers like sub2.00 ERA's were projected by some of the nitwits at ESPN. He has been decent but no where near the super human machine with the unhittable Gyro ball he was billed as in Japan.

 

I seem to remember another Japanese pitcher signed by the Yankees being called a fat toad by Steinbrenner after his weak career in the U.S.

 

Hideo Nomo had some initial success but quickly faded away.

 

I want no part of Igawa and his salary unless he is AAA depth and the Yankees are paying for it. There are already enougth LHers for the bullpen at the ML level at much cheaper values who are probably better pitchers.

[Fatter than Joey]

Hideo Nomo had some initial success but quickly faded away.

 

Nomo was a pretty solid pitcher. Not the greatest ever, but certainly decent.

[yoshii8]

You do realize Dice-K was 18-3 w/ a 2.90 ERA this past year right? Also, Hideki Okajima, and Takashi Saito have been very good.

[TooLiveBrew]

I'm in the "I like Cameron and have no problem with him as our starting CF, but if you can get good value for him in a trade take it" crowd. I am also in the "Melky Cabrera is not good value in a trade" crowd.

 

I'm in the 'I like this post' crowd.

 

 

And regarding Igawa, most people here are willing to scream about 'small sample sizes' with regards to any stats over less than a full season or two, yet people are willing to write off Igawa after a whopping 16 Major League appearances? I'm not saying or predicting that he's going to be wonderful in an extended opportunity, but his history suggests that the potential is certainly there for him to be serviceable in some role.

 

But what about his history suggests this? As far as I can tell, all we 'know' is that a Igawa did well at Triple-A at the ages of 27 & 28. Where's the promise in that? If he's nothing more than a replacement-level player, imo there's just no need to spend as much money & commit as many years as the Crew would have to do. SP-wise, we have DiFelice (who I'd pick first anyway to fill in), Villanueva/McClung if need be. Unless NYY takes on half or more than half of the contract's money, I just don't see the upside... even though I agree that we should be careful about sample sizes.

 

If Igawa were only under contract through '09 I think I'd hate this proposal less.

[Brian the Automator]

You do realize Dice-K was 18-3 w/ a 2.90 ERA this past year right? Also, Hideki Okajima, and Takashi Saito have been very good.

Kaz Sasaki as well...

[Fatter than Joey]

But what about his history suggests this? As far as I can tell, all we 'know' is that a Igawa did well at Triple-A at the ages of 27 & 28.

 

Exactly -- plus you don't need 71 innings to learn that Joe Winkelsas sucks -- especially at $4M/year

[MJLiverock]

I didn't say Dice K sucked, he was supposed to be unhittable and the question was how many Cy Young's he would win and so forth, but in his 372 innings he has a 3.72 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP, not horrible but not the utter domination he was supposed to bring.

 

After Nomo's initial first two years he couldn't keep his ERA below 4.50 or his WHIP below 1.40 until his brief resurgance in 02/03 with the Dodgers. He was a 4th or 5th starter not anything special.

 

Sasaki did pretty well until he got hurt and also decided he liked Japan better.

 

Basically, I am just saying that I don't really care what Igawa's numbers were in Japan because these guys have a history of not living up to the billing. I just don't put much stock in them especially after seeing them get knocked around by ML hitters like Igawa. The Yankees who were desperate for pitching during stretches last year stilll didn't want to start him and sent him down, I think they saw he just wasn't going to be effective. I see no reason why the Brewers should waste the money on another roster filler pitcher.

[monty57]

As piccione88 stated earlier, both the Brewers and the Yankees realize that Igawa has negative value. He is only being discussed in the trade because apparently Melvin would rather have Igawa and pay him $6MM over 3 years than not have Igawa and pick up $6MM of Cameron's salary.

 

Either way, as I stated earlier, this should not even be in discussion. Cameron is fairly paid and is a much better player that Cabrera. When the Yankees are willing to admit this, Melvin should resume talks. As long as the Yankees are "demanding" salary retribution or picking up Igawa, Melvin should walk away and prepare to have Cameron in CF.