Strikeouts

[PrimeTime955]

I'd like to hear someones opinion, hopefully backed up with some statistical evidence, on how strikeouts affect a hitters overall value. Many times in discussions on a player, someone will say, "he strikes out too much." Well is a strikeout really that bad? It's obviously better than grounding into a double play. It also has to be noted that it's hard to gauge the value of moving the runner over on a ball hit into play as well. Hopefully someone smarter than me will have some good info. Thanks in advance.

[logan82]

Strikeouts are about the same as balls in play outs. Strikeouts are worse than putting the ball in play. I have this showing strikeouts and other stats compared to runs in 2008. Link

 

If you are trying to compare 2 players strikeouts should be almost completely ignored unless those players are almost identical in every other way. All my opinion of course.

[1992casey]

I think statistical analysis backs up your opinion, logan. Strikeouts really don't come into play when comparing the offensive value of two players. It's essentially a qualitative stat rather than quantitative.

 

That doesn't mean that there aren't differences based on game situations. There are times when a strikeout is better than a ball in play out, there are times when it's worse, and there are times when it's about the same. Among other things, a manager may want to consider strikeouts when choosing a pinch hitter.

[rluzinski]

Compare the negative run value of a strikeout and out in every base out situation:

 

http://www.tangotiger.net/RE9902event.html

 

With a runner on 1st and no out, a K is preferred to a BIP out, for obvious reasons.

[Baldkin]

http://www.tangotiger.net/strikeout.html

 

Most people (at least, to me) think of a guy who strikes out a lot, as the old RF on their little league team who couldn't hit the ball if his life depended on it.

 

The difference is, by the time you get to MLB, those players who brought no offensive value along with their high-strikeouts have been weeded out in the minor leagues.

[Brian the Automator]

I also think that there's a misconception out there that if a player changes his approach and strikes out less, that his offensive output would improve greatly... which isn't how it works.

[davego]

I know my bias is that nothing good comes from a strikeout and the putting the ball in-play may result in something positive for the offense.

 

Baseball also doesn't allow (in scoring the game) for an assumption of a double play...so I usually have that in my thoughts an apply that to the batter as well as the fielder.

[rluzinski]

I know my bias is that nothing good comes from a strikeout and the putting the ball in-play may result in something positive for the offense.

 

Which is exactly why no one in their right mind would argue that a strikeout isn't worse than a ball in play. That's not what's being debated, however. An out vs. an out.

[Ennder]

A player who cuts down on his strike outs becomes a better player in general (as long as he isn't losing signifcant power doing it etc). So yeah strike outs are a bad thing.

 

However if you just compare Mike Cameron to someone who puts up the same rate stats but strikes out 50 times less the difference between the two is marginal at best.

[rluzinski]

A player who cuts down in outs becomes a better player.

[davego]

"Which is exactly why no one in their right mind would argue that a strikeout isn't worse than a ball in play. That's not what's being debated, however. An out vs. an out."

 

...fair enough. I suppose I have heard "well I'm glad he strikeouts so he didn't hit into a double play" manta enough that I jump to the conclusion that all whom don't have a loathing for strikeouts also subscribe to this perspective.

[endaround]

now the problem I have with that is the mantra is usually "just put the bat on teh ball!" But there's ahuge difference between a randomly selected ball in play and a ball hit by a defensive swing to put it in play.

[davego]

I'd assume that is correct. Would be interesting if it could be measured somehow.

[rluzinski]

I'm not aware of anyone who's even attempted to measure it. I just don't know how you could. There may be some players who would have more overall value by sacrificing some power for more balls in play. I wouldn't rule it out.

[JimH5]

I'm late to the argument on this one, but I have to wonder why a high strikeout rate is considered good for a pitcher, then why isn't it considered bad for a hitter?

[TheCrew07]

It's one of the least best possible outcomes of an AB, but the whole SOs don't matter argument is based around comparing the different types of outs. For example, they aren't comparing the SO to a Hit, what's the value of a SO compared to an IF pop up? That sort of thing... so a SO is preferable to a Double Play, not as good as a Sac Fly and so on. It is an outs vs outs thing, not based on the final outcome of the plate appearance, just all of the other negative outcomes of a plate appearance..

[logan82]

Strikeouts correlate to success for pitchers, that is pitchers with high strikeout rates usually are pretty good.(BB rate is also a big factor) Strikeouts have little correlation for hitters. Some of the best hitters strikeout a lot. Just a guess.

[topper09er]

I think it depends on the entire teams mentality. If every hitter on the team is basically trying to hit a HR every AB, then strikeouts dont matter at all and are much, much better than GIDPs. If you have a runner on 2nd with 0 outs and guy behind you just tries to hit HRs or K then it doesnt matter if you move that runner to 3rd. If your team understands the correct way to play baseball, which almost no major league teams do anymore, then Ks are bad because your goal in the situation above should be to move the runner to 3rd so the guy behind you can just groundout and score a run.

 

I think this is the best way to try to win close games against good teams, sure you can beat the Nationals by just trying to hit dingers all day because you will probably hit a few, but you cant beat Cole Hamles in the playoffs doing that. Remember the Brewers only playoff win they scored 4 runs on 11 singles, 5 walks, no extra-base hits, 2 sac bunts and 2 SFs.

[logan82]

Here is a link to a THT article on double plays. Link

 

Basically a DP costs a team 0.5 runs more than an ordinary out.