Roster + Payroll Construction

[strawbossisevil]

I have to agree with the Crew07. Let´s imagine that we don´t trade for Sabathia. But instead keep LaPorta (and Brantley). This offseason would look completely different if that was the case. We would have LaPorta who essentially is ready to step in and take over 1B. And so we could spin off Fielder for young SP prospects. Prospects that we would be able to control long term. If Brantley didn´t fit in our plans, we could have spun him off for pitching prospects as well, as he was clearly highly regarded.

 

Now, we have to deal with the problem that if we trade Fielder, we have no one to step in and take his place.

 

Trading LaPorta led to draft picks that will take years to develop. Trading Fielder would have likely brought us players that were developed further (meaning less risk of being flame outs in comparison to the draft) and much closer to helping the current ball club.

 

I do think the trade may have set us back here now for a year or two more. It´s up to debate whether the playoff appearance was worth it, it certainly was fun.

 

I don´t think however that signing no FA pitchers is the answer either. I like the idea that is being tossed out now of signing guys like Smoltz and Johnson to one year deals. Signing them doesn´t set us back, and if we struggle as a team but they are performing well, they would bring in a reasonable sized haul in a mid-season trade. If they don´t do well, it´s just a one year thing, and it doesn´t prevent us from signing our guys long term. I will say, that I was onboard for signing CC, because he was a difference maker, having him and Gallardo at the top of the rotation makes us a very good shot of being in the playoffs over the next few seasons. But if you are going to go longer than a year or two tops, it better be someone who is a difference maker, and not mediocre.

[fondybrewfan]

By the way has Mr. Phillips ever admitted to being a moron regarding that trade. Its odd that he is employed by ESPN to atleast in part talk about baseball from a GM's perspective yet he made one of the worst trades in recent memory and generally had a pretty poor career. Whats next Isiah Thomas and Matt Millen?

[nate82]

I have to agree with the Crew07. Let´s imagine that we don´t trade for Sabathia. But instead keep LaPorta (and Brantley). This offseason would look completely different if that was the case. We would have LaPorta who essentially is ready to step in and take over 1B. And so we could spin off Fielder for young SP prospects. Prospects that we would be able to control long term. If Brantley didn´t fit in our plans, we could have spun him off for pitching prospects as well, as he was clearly highly regarded.

You still have a problem there. Now you just got rid of your best left handed bat in your lineup now you are forced to either have an all right handed lineup or bringing up Gamel before he is even ready. You would then need to trade Hart to make room for Dunn in LF or find another left handed bat in a trade.

[trwi7]

By the way has Mr. Phillips ever admitted to being a moron regarding that trade.

Why would he admit to being a moron on a trade he didn't even make?

[And That]

Patrick, I think you might be under a little on the arby estimates for Hardy and Fielder... maybe not both, but I could see the two of them together making $1-2 million more than what you've listed.

 

Piccione noted that the minimum salary is indeed $400K next year, and there's the Brewers' incentive based minimum salary thing. I'd put the payroll with those players at a little over $70 mil.

[TheCrew07]

Nate you're assuming we care about right/left, which I don't, I want the better combination of players.

[twobrewers]

We would have LaPorta who essentially is ready to step in and take over 1B.

That is pretty debatable.

 

After his trade to Cleveland he posted a .649 OPS.

 

In the Winter League he put up a .549 OPS.

[strawbossisevil]

And those were both very small samples.

[monty57]

I don´t think however that signing no FA pitchers is the answer either. I like the idea that is being tossed out now of signing guys like Smoltz and Johnson to one year deals. Signing them doesn´t set us back, and if we struggle as a team but they are performing well, they would bring in a reasonable sized haul in a mid-season trade. If they don´t do well, it´s just a one year thing, and it doesn´t prevent us from signing our guys long term. I will say, that I was onboard for signing CC, because he was a difference maker, having him and Gallardo at the top of the rotation makes us a very good shot of being in the playoffs over the next few seasons. But if you are going to go longer than a year or two tops, it better be someone who is a difference maker, and not mediocre.

 

I'm with you. There's little downside risk to signing someone like Johnson or Smoltz to a one-year deal. Even Gagne's deal last year didn't hurt too much in the long-term outlook. I'd much rather sign Johnson/Smoltz to a one-year deal than sign a younger-but-mediocre FA to a 3-4 year deal. Signing Johnson or Smoltz (assuming they're healthy) would shore up our opening day rotation and allow McClung to pitch in the bullpen, where he was effective last season. If Villy can be an effective closer, our MLB pitching roster would be pretty well set. We should be able to do this even if we don't trade Cameron, which would essentially fill all of our "holes" except for 3B, which would be manned by the platoon of Hall/Lamb until Gamel proves he's ready. I'd rather see Sheets back, but at least this would allow us to field a team with a chance of competing.

 

If we are competitive, we should have payroll flexibility to add another player mid-season. If not, as Strawboss mentioned, we could then trade Johnson / Smoltz and Cameron (if still around) during the season to help the future. Next offseason, more of the minor league crop will be knocking at the door which will lead to a greater possibility of trading some of our current major league hitters for longer term pitching answers.

 

I'm far from writing this season off, as we have most of the talent that got us to the playoffs this year. We do, however, have to be careful not to make a stupid desparation move this offseason that will seriously hinder our chances in the future. I think Crew07 is correct that making another Suppan-type deal this offseason could do that. If there is a trade available where we can get a young stud pitcher without destroying our offense, I'm all for it. If it's not there, we still need to have an MLB pitching staff this season. If we can't get Sheets (unlikely) or Lowe (impossible) on a long term deal, then I'm for signing, possibly even "over paying," for someone like Johnson or Smoltz for one year.

[twobrewers]

And those were both very small samples.

If you combine them into 127 at bats - it is a bigger sample.

I don't think any major league team wants a 1B starting on opening day who put up a sub .600 OPS in 1/4 of a minor league season.

 

Also, if you look in the minor league thread - Chris Bosio talks about how Brantley might be the better prospect as LaPorta has holes in his swing. (ala Nelson Cruz)

[KCBrewerfan34]

So basically we have approx $10-13 million to spend on a closer and a possible starter?

[Never Outhustled]

Obviously the system didn't produce enough pitching, but instead of flipping our excess hitting for a long term solution, we flipped it for a rental, and now we're right back where we started.

Except you forgot about the fact that we made the playoffs. If we would have traded the same package for a pitcher who would be a long term solution, that pitcher would not have been as good as Sabathia, and we would not have made the playoffs.

 

 

In small market it would seem prudent to be paying your best players the most money on the team. Unfortunately the Brewers can only afford to sign a roughly league average pitcher, as pitchers age, their skills tend to decline. This means that the Brewers can only afford to sign an average pitcher who will likely decline to below average over the course of the deal. That's paying for mediocrity, knowing that your highest paid player is not your best or most productive player. Is the Suppan deal crippling in it itself, no... but it certainly doesn't help.

The problem was bad scouting by Melvin and company, not bad method of operation. Had Melvin signed Ted Lilly, we would have less money tied up, and we'd have a well above average pitcher. Free Agency works for the teams that sign the right players.

 

 

I think that's a horrible way to plug holes, where as I think TB figured out exactly what a small market team should do. They had to give up an excellent prospect to get Garza (Young, I know there was change both ways) and basically stole Kazmir, but both deals were essentially hitting for pitching. They still have Neimann in AAA who's a 3-4 type pitcher, Price who will be the next Sabathia, and a deep system behind them. TB is now ahead of the curve, a place where I would like the Brewers to be

Tampa has more prospects because they had higher picks. The Brewers improved faster than Tampa did.

 

 

I just don't think operating in that manner is in the best interests of the Brewer franchise because we'll always be where we are right now, behind the curve without the resources to plug holes with marquee FAs.

The Brewers are in no way behind the curve. They have more position prospects in the high minors than they could possibly put on this team. They have plenty of ammo to make trades, and the system is improving. The Brewers had just 13 picks in the 1st 2 rounds of the draft in Jack Zs 1st 8 years here. We now could have 13 in a 2 year period. I see no way that doesn't produce a huge wave of prospects, the biggest this organization has ever seen. Your just criticizing their method of operation before it gets a chance to take hold.

 

I'd like Melvin to be flexible and it honestly ticks me off that he said trades are complicated

This I completely agree with you on. Melvin wines that nobody makes him an offer, but I wish Haudricourt would ask him at the end of winter meetings how many trade offers did he actually make. Melvin is just not aggressive. He is more pre-occupied with getting good value in deals that he fails to realize the goal is to win, not get good value. In the end, GM will be judged by their record, not by the trades they made.

 

 

So basically we have approx $10-13 million to spend on a closer and a possible starter?

Thats based on a very conservative projected team budgett. I would hope the team doesn't slash payroll after record attendance and a profitable season. That would be horrible PR.