Roster + Payroll Construction

[colbyjack]

I know we had a thread about this a year ago, and it is an important point. While no one knows what the payroll will be exactly, the $80 million figure seems to be floated around quite often. And with that figure it makes you wonder what that leaves the team to spend on other players? It's hard to crunch the numbers since the Brewers do have so many players that are arbitration eligible.

 

So, here's my best guess. I'm constructing the 25-man roster entirely with players currently on the 40-man roster, and am not trying to project who the team may acquire. I'm taking a very rough stab at what these players are worth, so if you disagree with my projection, please feel free to offer what certain players may expect to make.

 

LINEUP

 

Rickie Weeks -- $2.5

JJ Hardy -- $4.50

Ryan Braun -- $0.75

Prince Fielder -- $7.00

Corey Hart -- $2.25

Mike Lamb -- $0.35

Mike Cameron -- $10.00

Jason Kendall -- $4.60

 

Total-Lineup: -- $31.95

 

BENCH

 

Mike Rivera -- $0.50

Brad Nelson -- $0.35

Hernan Iribarren -- $0.35

Bill Hall -- $6.80

Casey McGehee -- $0.35

 

Total-Bench -- $8.35

 

STARTING ROTATION

 

Yovani Gallardo -- $0.45

Manny Parra -- $0.50

Dave Bush -- $4.50

Jeff Suppan -- $12.50

Seth McClung -- $1.50

 

Total-Rotation -- $19.45

 

BULLPEN

 

Jorge Julio -- $0.95

Carlos Villanueva -- $0.75

Tim Dillard -- $0.35

David Riske -- $4.25

Todd Coffey -- $0.80

R.J. Swindle -- $0.35

Mitch Stetter -- $0.35

 

Total-Bullpen -- $7.80

 

Projected 2009 Payroll: $67.55 M

 

Outside of Bill Hall and David Riske, the bench and bullpen should be very cost effective as they stand at this point in time. It also points out how the lineup as it stands right now is going to get a lot more pricey as Fielder, Weeks, Hardy and Hart continue to get closer to free agency in their arbitration years. This also points out how trading players such as Bill Hall or Mike Cameron is reported deals with the Yankees would free up an incredible amount of money to target other needs.

[MillerParkSouth]

Thanks for doing this. When it's all line up like this, it's quite easy to see how Melvin wouldn't want to go after a closer like Fuentes as it'd leave us very little wiggle room for anything else. That Suppan number just sticks out like a sore thumb, haha. This makes me feel like like Cam might be gone in order to facilitate other deals.

[twobrewers]

colbyjack is good.

[Trowekamp]

I think Prince will be up around 9 - 10 and I think Cameron will be traded which will save another 10.. If Mike Lamb is starting for us I don't have to worry about playoff tickets he was horrible last year with the twins..

[PeaveyFury]

If Mike Lamb is starting for us I don't have to worry about playoff tickets he was horrible last year with the twins..

 

Well, Bill Hall was largely horrible for us last year too and we still made the playoffs.

 

My point being, if it's not working as we get into the season, there's nothing that says we can't make a change.

[Tbadder]

It really points out the absolute necessity in having a lot of players near the league minimum. very interesting stuff. I think that this number 70 million would be a good number for the Brewers to shoot for. Attendance should be down this year, and with the economy, the ancillary income should take a hit. That kind of number could insulate the Brewers and keep them stable long term. I'd love to figure out a way to get it in the 50 million range, but that's probably asking too much.

[nate82]

If the trade goes through with the Brewers and the Yankees and assuming it is a 1 for 1 swap for Melky Cabrera and Mike Cameron the Brewers would have an extra $9.5 million from the deal. I don't think it is a 1 for 1 swap though. Even if another low salary player comes in the deal like Kennedy the Brewers will still have $9 million more than they had to add to payroll. Expected payroll would be now ~$57 million before another FA signing. I believe the Brewers total payroll coming into 2009 will be around $70-75 million. That gives the Brewers about $18 million to work with in free agency. Possibly signing either Dunn or Fuentes type of players. Bill Hall is also rumored to be involved in the deal that may send Cameron to the Yankees. So that would be even more payroll cut but I don't see why you would trade Hall when Lamb was just signed it makes no sense unless the Brewers are going to go with Casey McGehee at 3rd to platoon with Lamb. I believe the Brewers would have to take on some of the salary of Hall and Cameron though if both are traded to the Yankees for low salary players like Kennedy and Cabrera.

[piccione88]

Really not that important but I thought the minimum salary was generally around 400K. That really would not change the total salary much, probably just a little over 70 million.

[JoeHova]

I hate the fact that Suppan is still around and is likely forcing the team to deal far superior players who make less money. God, it's depressing to be a Brewer fan. A terrible pitcher who was obviously terrible even when he was signed is crippling the team. I mean, what's the point? The Brewers do everything right and come up with a nice nucleus of Braun, Fielder, Hardy, Hart and Gallardo and now those will be the only guys they have, and some of them will surely be dealt either this year or next year. What is the point of following a team that has no chance? I guess it's like being a Northwestern basketball fan. At least the Brewers have made the tournament 3 times, Northwestern has never made it.

[StearnsFTW]

Well, if you can trade Cam & Hall, that gets you to about $51M.......sign Fuentes and Dunn for a combined 3/66.........up to 73M.......that's a competetive group......although SP is still weak.

 

I guess I'm trying to make lemonade out of lemons.

 

Now, if DM would consider trading Prince for young pitching, we might be getting somewhere.

[TheCrew07]

A further point on Joe's thoughts...

 

That's the entire issue with FA pitching, I've made my point on guys like Suppan making the most the money on the team and being in the bottom 3rd of the talent pool many times. Now people want to go out and spend more money on another FA pitcher... I guess I could live with short term deal, but another 4 year deal would be absolutely awful in my opinion. Keep your money and pay the best players on the team the most money... I'd rather the team not panic and overspend trying to compete for the division and WC in 2009 if the opportunity truly isn't there. Many of us think it may be there for 2009 but things have to fall properly and the team has to remain healthy.

 

This year's team was about 2 or 3 players away from being a WS contender, next year's team will be about 4 or 5, but starting in 2010 the talent significantly jumps up again. I'm not talking about being 62 -100, I'm talking about being around average for a season. As good as Jack Z was, he never got enough quality starting pitching to Milwaukee, we cannot undo what's been done, and in my opinion there's no good reason to reduce flexibility by paying FA pitchers market value contracts..

[twobrewers]

This year's team was about 2 or 3 players away from being a WS contender, next year's team will be about 4 or 5, but starting in 2010 the talent significantly jumps up again. I'm not talking about being 62 -100, I'm talking about being around average for a season. As good as Jack Z was, he never got enough quality starting pitching to Milwaukee, we cannot undo what's been done, and in my opinion there's no good reason to reduce flexibility by paying FA pitchers market value contracts..

Well said.

 

My concern is that the Brewers are looking at a lot of one year contract players. (Moyer, Johnson & Smoltz) What about 2010? I really don't see any minor league pitchers that I would count on contributing in 2010. And if that is the case - why wouldn't we be looking for longer term solutions. (Unless the Brewers figure they can address starting pitching via trade after this season)

[fleehaw]

My concern is that the Brewers are looking at a lot of one year contract players. (Moyer, Johnson & Smoltz) What about 2010? I really don't see any minor league pitchers that I would count on contributing in 2010. And if that is the case - why wouldn't we be looking for longer term solutions. (Unless the Brewers figure they can address starting pitching via trade after this season)

You will most likely see at least one of Hardy/Fielder/Hart traded after the '09 season with pitching being an obvious target.

 

Gamel, Escobar, Cain, Gilespie, Jeffress, and Salome could all potentially be ready to contribute in the majors after spending all of '09 in AAA. The sky is not falling, perhaps it's just dropping a bit.

[endaround]

The problem with the Suppan signing wasn't the 4 year deal to a pitcher, it's that it's a 4 year deal to a bad pitcher.

[TheCrew07]

What good pitcher can the team sign for multiple years at 12 million per? It's not the player per say, it's what the Brewers can afford to pay... I guess the point we're trying to make is why eat up a significant portion of the budget paying for mediocrity? If mediocrity is the best we can do, this team will never win a championship, some how we must get ahead of the curve, and I don't see the Brewers getting there by spending money on FA pitchers.

[Invader3K]

I really don't see Suppan being a huge factor in limiting the Brewers ability to make roster moves. Many here love to finger point at someone, and I guess the guy making the most money is a prime target. However, this team was just offering over 100 million to one player, so I'm not buying that Jeff Suppan is this huge boat anchor dragging the team down financially.

 

We knew what we were getting with him when he was signed...a veteran pitcher who would eat innings, and probably be pretty mediocre. I'm sure Melvin knew that as well when he signed him.

[CheezWizHed]

One thing you will never see in baseball, this side of a salary cap, is a small market team playing at a high level for a long time (Packers). The Twins seems to be consistantely decent and occasionally good, but without the fair competition for players (CC) no small market team stays on top for long.

 

Frankly, I shake my head when I hear the people being depressed about this team. Remember the 90s? Anyone? That was depressing. I'm frustrated at the turn of events from this year, but we should still have a winning team with a shot at the WC. When did we last have 3 winning seasons in a row?

 

Oh, and by the way, the offseason has a long way to go...

[Invader3K]

Oh, and by the way, the offseason has a long way to go...

That is definitely one thing to keep in mind...one of the biggest free agent signings ever for the Brewers (Suppan), didn't happen 'til almost Christmas one year. Now, the merits of that signing can be debated all day...but the fact is Melvin still has a ton of time to make moves.

[StearnsFTW]

Suppan IS a boat-anchor. I don't expect him to be even mediocre at this point, and he is exibhits A through Z as to why this team should never sign a free agent starting pitcher to more than a 2 year deal.

[Invader3K]

Yeah, but how often can you get any kind of decent SP for just a 2 year deal?

 

You can't always build from within (especially with pitching)...sometimes a team has to make a chance and spend more than just peanuts on a guy to try to field anything competitive. I agree in retrospect that the Suppan signing was probably a mistake (even though I supported it at the time), but hindsight is 20/20.

 

Also, I don't think you can say he can't bounce back next year. He was hurt, but he'll have a lot of recovery time this off season. No reason he can't get back to his '06/'07 type levels, at least.

[TheCrew07]

Invader I'm not sure you're entirely getting the point here.

 

Obviously the system didn't produce enough pitching, but instead of flipping our excess hitting for a long term solution, we flipped it for a rental, and now we're right back where we started. In small market it would seem prudent to be paying your best players the most money on the team. Unfortunately the Brewers can only afford to sign a roughly league average pitcher, as pitchers age, their skills tend to decline. This means that the Brewers can only afford to sign an average pitcher who will likely decline to below average over the course of the deal. That's paying for mediocrity, knowing that your highest paid player is not your best or most productive player. Is the Suppan deal crippling in it itself, no... but it certainly doesn't help. A second deal would be absolutely crippling because the team would have over 25% of it's payroll tied into the last 3 spots in the rotation I just don't see how that's good business.

 

I think that's a horrible way to plug holes, where as I think TB figured out exactly what a small market team should do. They had to give up an excellent prospect to get Garza (Young, I know there was change both ways) and basically stole Kazmir, but both deals were essentially hitting for pitching. They still have Neimann in AAA who's a 3-4 type pitcher, Price who will be the next Sabathia, and a deep system behind them. TB is now ahead of the curve, a place where I would like the Brewers to be... an already solid rotation to go with some impact bats and a deep system. I'm not into waiting around hoping guys like Jeffress, Lintz, Scarpetta, Bowman, Peralta, Ordorizi, and Fredrickson pan out while plugging in average declining pitchers to market contracts in the meantime, I'd rather a acquire a good young pitcher who will have value in the future as a trade piece or as a type A FA, not a player who's value will decline as his salary escalates. When they signed Suppan they didn't have the ammunition to make deals, now they have the ammunition and I'll be very disappointed if they continue to operate as they have in the past. Down the road if we end up with a surplus of pitching as these kids mature then we can turn around and flip them for bats like Tampa is looking to do with Neimann. This usually seems to get spun at creating one to fill another, but really it's dealing from a position of strength for a position need. Yes it creates a short term issue, but long term we end up with a better team.

 

I'd like Melvin to be flexible and it honestly ticks me off that he said trades are complicated... well no crap it's easy to throw money at someone in FA so it looks like the team did something. We were in the perfect position to deal for young a SP and instead the team chose a marquee player and probably the playoffs, but if that means we're right back to where the team was when they signed Suppan, then I wonder is a playoff appearance the best this franchise is going to be able to muster? Fans like FA signings and mid season deals because that's what the big boys do, and that's where press tends to focus. I just don't think operating in that manner is in the best interests of the Brewer franchise because we'll always be where we are right now, behind the curve without the resources to plug holes with marquee FAs.

[bklynbrewcrew]

Suppan is not a reason why you shouldnt seen free agent pitchers. He just happens to be a bad pitcher that shouldnt have been signed at all.

[TheCrew07]

You're hung up on the name, which doesn't really have anything to do with the concept of signing average pitchers on the decline because that's all the Brewers can truly afford. Good to Elite pitchers get contract lengths and money far beyond the Brewer's means.

[JoeHova]

Kazmir for Zambrano wasn't pitching for hitting, Zambrano was a pitcher. An awful pitcher, but still a pitcher. That trade was so inexplicable, the only way it could possibly have worked out for the Mets was if Kazmir suffered a career-ending injury before he ever pitched for TB and even then I'd rather have taken the chance that he could make it back.

[TheCrew07]

you're right Joe, my mistake, I should have caught that.