Winter Meeting/Offseason analysis

[jaybird2001wi]

It all seems like the eyes will be focused squarely on CC Sabathia as he decides where to go as a free agent. In my opinion, the only way trades will go down will be when Sabathia signs with somebody as he will be the one domino to create the rest of the winter deals.

The reasons are simple:

1) Sabathia will be counted on by all of his fellow free agents to "create" the market for free agents this winter. Very little amount of free agents will sign until he makes his decision.

2) Staying in Milwaukee will be an obvious surprising decision and if he does, it could alienate the MLBPA because if he signs a deal for less, it will deflate the salaries of others. Sabathia may not have a choice of whether or not to sign with the Yankees because he will not only face intense pressure from his own agent, but other agents and his fellow players to make the decision to go to New York.

3) There are still a couple teams lurking in the bushes for Sabathia, mostly from the West Coast. The Sabathia camp is waiting on the Giants and Dodgers to make their offers. Sabathia will likely take as much time as he needs in order to wait for these offers. If this occurs, there will be a tremendous slowdown not only from the Brewers perspective, but other teams.

4) The Brewers are not likely to make any deals or sign any free agents ready to make a solid contribution until Sabathia makes his decision. They will not move Mike Cameron, Bill Hall, Rickie Weeks, etc. for starting pitching until they have 100 percent word Sabathia is out of the running.

5) If or when Sabathia signs with the Yankees, other teams will begin to look at Plans B, C, etc. Right now everyone's eyes are on Plan A (Sabathia). If the Angels plan to make a move or offer, this will delay their pursuit to retain Mark Teixeira. Teixeira is being coveted by other teams and his market has not been set as of yet.

6) What could hinder the Sabathia watch is if the Red Sox jump in and throw an offer on the table. They have already talked with Burnett and possibly regaining Derek Lowe.

7) With everyone's eyes on Sabathia, Manny Ramirez has been put on the back burner as far as a free agent pursuit. If a team wants to make a move on Ramirez, now may be the time since every body's attention is on the first guy. Then again, Ramirez is represented by Scott Boras, who can control negotiations and teams which covet him, as well as a highly skilled race car driver.

 

Brewers observations/intriguing rumors on the Hot Stove

1) If and when Sabathia leaves, there will be a flurry of moves concerning position players.

a) Tampa Bay Rays have an interest in regaining Delmon Young and is offering starting pitching to the Twins. The Twins, according to ESPN, don't "need" pitching and could use a third-team. Brewers anyone? Could the Twins be interested in any of our infielders since they took a flier/interest in Casey Blake?

b) Mike Cameron. The Yankees want him, but would Melvin consider helping the team that took Sabathia away from him? What do the Yankees have to offer? Phillip Hughes? Ian Kennedy?

i) A potential move of Cameron leaves the team with a gaping hole in CF, how will they plan on filling it? They are not interested in handing the job nor do they want to give the job to Gwynn Jr.

2) Infielders, it may be inevitable that one or two of infielders could be dealt paving the way for Alcides Escobar. But will Doug Melvin pull out a Rafael Furcal card and hold it close to his chest? He is a switch-hitter and it has been clear that the Brewers need a leadoff hitter. But Furcal declined an offer from the Athletics for nearly 8 million a year. If Sabathia walks, could we use some of this money to throw at Furcal? Could this mean a trade of Hardy or a switch to second base, yielding a Rickie Weeks trade?

3) Starting pitching/bullpen. Shouse declined arbitration leaving us in need for a lefty specialist. Not sure on the market for lefty pitchers, but what could make things interesting is if Melvin fields a call to Randy Johnson if the interest in him is remote.

[fleehaw]

Interesting take. I'll say that Sabathia won't be the first FA pitcher to sign a contract (not counting Dempster). I'll bet Burnett or Lowe will take a deal before Sabathia and that the deal will probably be more than what they're worth. I could definitely see a team like the Yankees overpaying one or more of the other FA pitchers in order to solidify their rotation and forget about CC.

 

I do think you'll see a domino effect with the pitching. Perhaps something similar to when that first closer/kicker/defense goes off the board in a fantasy draft.

 

Although it's frustrating waiting for the Brewers to make a move, it's kind of fun to speculate what deals Melvin has in the works in case Sabathia doesn't resign. I wouldn't be surprised if Sabathia doesn't resign, that Melvin already has a deal or two in place (Hart to the Braves).

[Hate those Rodents]

The Hart deal though should not really hinge on CC at all, as I think we're expecting it to send a hitter or two our way, not a starting pitcher.

[ILuvDaBush]

What about a Hardy/Gamel/Parra/Jeffress to the BJays for Rolen/Ryan/Halladay? That would definitely hinge on whether CC accepts our deal. Any possibility of taking on salary hinges on the Sabathia negotiations. Also, I figured it was all but a given, but isn't Stetter our LOOGy du joir?

[sheetskout]

Rosenthal reports "Brewers Not Willing To Sell Off Young Talent"

 

http://msn.foxsports.com/...P=OTC-K9B140813162&ATT=49

 

What gives?

[Crewin06]

Well I am glad I heard that.

 

No Offense but Gamel/Hardy/Jeffress/Parra for Ryan/Rolen/Halladay is the last type of deal I want to see. Not only are the Brewers taking on about 35 million per year in salary they are giving up about 20 combined seasons of control for around 6 seasons of control.

 

This was my favorite line from Melvin

 

"We'll make good baseball deals if they're out there," Melvin told FOXSports.com, "But our players are too talented and too young (to move). If you're trading guys in their first or second year of arbitration, you can't really build like that."

 

That's how a GM should operate.

[ILuvDaBush]

I wasn't trying to be serious when I offered that. Honestly, I'd rather have Gamel than Rolen over the next three years, even with their defense. I have the utmost respect for Gamel, and I can only hope he'll follow the same path as Braun did to the majors.

 

As an aside, I WOULD trade such a package...even adding Hart, for a package of King Felix/Morrow/Beltre. I can't imagine Jack Z. would do such a trade, but it would diversify his holdings, add offense, and allow him to overvalue his pitchers in hopes of more trades as they pitch at Safeco. Imagine what Parra would post next year.

 

Gamel/Hardy/Jeffress/Parra/Hart

 

for

 

Beltre/King Felix/Morrow/Balentien

 

Imagine our rotation next year.

 

Felix

Yo

Morrow

Bush

Suppan....