Melvin's comments before Winter Meetings

[Ennder]

Surely the list for potential LH halves of the platoon was longer than Russell Branyan and Mike Lamb?

I'm guessing that we see Gamel at the all star break if we stick with Lamb.

[aracko]

I just wish that Nomar could be the platoon guy vs Left Handed pitching. I think he would be more willing to move around the diamond for playing time where as bill hall seems to think he is above that.

[mothershipconnection]

It's tough to say that before we even know what holes we have yet with 100% certainty. Say Sheets accepts arby tonight, and that makes SP less of a concern.

 

Word. A rotation with Sheets and a healthy Gallardo at the top is better than the rotation we had before the CC trade, which still allowed us to be very competitive. Putting Gallardo's career 3.35 ERA back into the mix is absolutely huge, and I wouldn't bet a significant amount of money on CC having a better year than Yo. If Sheets managed to stay healthy all year (yes, a ginormous "if"), we could legitimately have a better rotation than last year. If Sheets accepts arbitration, I think we're a quality 3B and 2 good RP's away from being very competitive again.

[twobrewers]

St Louis isnt that much bigger of a market and they have been successful for years.

And St. Louis would never sign CC Sabathia for a 5 year 100 million dollar deal.

 

Milwaukee fans get so caught up in the "small market" tag that they just use it as a crutch to blame quality business decisions. Milwaukee had a very respectable payroll last year.

 

The biggest markets - Red Sox, White Sox, Cubs, Dodgers, Mets & Angels haven't show much (or any) interest in CC Sabathia. It has very little to do with the size of the market. Most GMs just don't want to give a 5 year 100+ million dollar contract to a pitcher because of the enormous risk.

 

Edit: I think CC would be making a huge mistake if he resigned with the Brewers. CC saw first hand how Milwaukee fans treat players who do not perform up to their salary/expectations. Bill Hall, Eric Gagne, and Ben Sheets were all booed significantly during CC's time in Milwaukee. CC cannot possibly continue to perform at the level he set last year - at some point, the fans would turn on him for not "carrying" the franchise for 5+ years.

[DHonks]

Also, lets not forget we have some huge contracts coming off the books in a year or two. Assuming we dont trade Cameron, thats $10 million. Hall and his $5 million, Kendall I believe is maknig close to $5 million, Suppan of course and his ridiculous contract. All in 2 years they will be gone

 

Paul, you're a bit off.

Off the books after 2009:

Cameron $10 million

Kendall $4.6

Julio $0.95

------------

~$15.6 million

 

After 2010:

Hall $9.25

Riske $4.5

Suppan $12.5

-----------

~$26.25 million.

 

But if the core remains intact, nearly all of that money will be given to the likes of Hardy, Hart, Fielder, Gallardo, Braun, Weeks, etc

[PeaveyFury]

Buster Olney has a new article up at ESPN.com, "10 people looking for answers at the Winter Meetings", which includes both Sabathia and Melvin:

 

http://sports.espn.go.com...3751718&name=olney_buster

[RU Rah Rah]

I'm a little uneasy with the number of eggs that people are willing to put into the Gallardo basket. (Don't get me wrong. I think he has the potential to be a top-of-the-rotation guy for years to come. He's a great young arm.)

[Weirdos19]

I have a couple of points on this.

 

1. Melvin certainly isn't gonna say he's looking to trade JJ. That would make the offers less attractive, depending on the number of suitors.

2. Looks like he's willing to trade Weeks and/or Cameron for pitching help.

3. It's either CC or a FA closer. It will not be both.

[logan82]

I am sure that Melvin is willing to trade almost anybody if he thinks it will make the team better. His big decision will be whether he is focusing on 2009 or 2010 as our next year to compete. I think a lot of that will depend on whether Sheets or CC return. Melvin always points out positive things about any player he talks about. We never know what his intentions are until the last possible minute. I think nothing is apparent at this point except Melvin is going to do something he thinks will makes us better than we are now.

[paul253]

But if the core remains intact, nearly all of that money will be given to the likes of Hardy, Hart, Fielder, Gallardo, Braun, Weeks, etc

 

In two years though the core will also consist of Gamel, Gillespie, Cain, Escobar and Salome, so you probably arent going to be giving huge raises to all the players you mentioned, you'll probably trade a few of them. The Brewers complete inability to develope pitching is really showing its ugly face right now because not only are we looking for starters, but also relievers, and we have zero options in house to fill them, except for possibly Dillard and Stetter.

 

I realize that these comments mean nothing. But to me, after watching last season, and seeing the offense disappear for 5 weeks and almost blowing the wildcard when it was seemingly in your back pocket, the weaknesses of the lineup were as clear as day. Even when the offense wasnt on, we had Sabathia and Sheets to fall back on, It almost seems as though Melvin is ignoring those weaknesses and making it sound like its not a big deal. When pitchers know that you dont have to throw strikes to get hitters out, it makes it that much harder for the offense to be effective. I think the biggest offensive problem is lack of discipline and lack of OBP, people getting on for Braun and Fielder. Thats why i'd love to see them trade Cameron and sign Abreu. I know it would be a huge dropoff in defense, but the offense would be much better. You'd always have Gwynn and hopefully Kapler for defensive replacements. I'd be more than happy with an outfield of Braun, Hart, Abreu, Kapler, and Gwynn.

 

Quite honestly, I wouldnt mind seeing Sheets back either, even if its for a 2 year deal, because pitching will probably be a problem next offseason too (this is assuming Sabathia isnt back). Its high risk high reward, but whatever the contract is isnt going to kill you. So now you have Gallardo, Sheets, Parra, Bush, and Suppan, at least until Sheets gets hurt, which is definitely good enough to compete and win. You add some more guys for depth, maybe like a Capuano to thow in Nashville, maybe Braden Looper as the #5 pushing Suppan to the pen plus whoever you get back for Cameron.

 

A roster of the following would satisfy me.

 

Infielders

Fielder

Weeks

Hardy

Hall

Lamb

Loretta

 

Catchers

Kendall

Rivera

 

Outfielders

Braun

Hart

Abreu

Kapler

Gwynn

 

Starters

Gallardo

Sheets

Bush

Parra

Looper

 

Relievers

Suppan

McClung

Julio

Villanueva

Stetter

Riske

Hoffman

 

You'd have to sign Abreu, Looper, Hoffman, Lamb, Kapler, Sheets and Loretta, and you'd have to trade Cameron. It may be asking a lot but i think its doable.

 

Add Capuano to Nashville. If a pitcher goes down you can have Suppan, McClung or Capuano replace him. Its not a great bullpen, but it can hold i guess. You have Dillard in Nashville to fall back on. What does everyone think of that roster?

[logan82]

Well Hardy is worried about being traded and says he wants to stay a Brewer. I would tell him to have his agent get i contact with Melvin about a long term contract. I would love to have JJ around for the next 5 years. Link

[Invader3K]

Interesting. You have to think the Brewers could be putting a long term offer on the table for Hardy sooner than later, if he really wants to stay that badly.

[rluzinski]

There is no reason to focus on the last 5 weeks when trying to project the Brewers performance next year. The last 5 weeks doesn't add more clarity to the situation than any other 5 weeks from last year. You need to look at the big picture.

 

Melvin's comments mean nothing. They never do in these situations. Most GM's are reluctant to show their hand. Melvin usually takes it a step farther by purposely trying to mislead people about his intentions.

 

I just can't muster up enough energy to start panicking about the Brewers' off season in December. Plenty of time to wheel and deal.

[paul253]

The last 5 weeks doesn't add more clarity to the situation than any other 5 weeks from last year. You need to look at the big picture.

 

In a sense it does mean more. Even though a win in April counts as much as a win in September, the pressure is certainly greater in September, and when the team takes a dump when the pressure is on, that doesnt bode well. Maybe they'll learn from last season's near disaster, maybe not, but considering where they could have been last season compared to where they ended up, it doesnt look so good. An NFL team that starts off 10-0 and finishes 10-6 may still make the playoffs. And if you tell the fans ahead of time the team will finish 10-6 and make the playoffs, they might be happy. But after week 10 they are 10-0 and you tell the fans the same thing, that they will finish 10-6 and make the playoffs, the fans wont be quite as happy, they'll probably be pretty mad. Last season on July 27th the Brewers were tied with the Cubs for first place. If at the time you told the fans they were going to finish 7.5 games behind the Cubs (and they'd have to go on a mini run in the last week just to get that close) I dont too many of us would have been satisified.

[tigerbrew]

Well Hardy is worried about being traded and says he wants to stay a Brewer. I would tell him to have his agent get i contact with Melvin about a long term contract. I would love to have JJ around for the next 5 years. Link

Totally agree, please sign Hardy long term asap.

 

From that article, it's very clear that Hardy really wants to remain a Brewer which is excellent. With a long term extension, I think he wouldn't mind moving to 3B when Escobar is ready, to help improve the team.

[TooLiveBrew]

Even though a win in April counts as much as a win in September, the pressure is certainly greater in September, and when the team takes a dump when the pressure is on, that doesnt bode well

 

No, it tells you nothing more about what kind of performance to expect in the future. Nothing (just like any other random small sample of playing time). Remember how un-clutch A-Rod was definitively deemed due to the 2005 & 2006 postseasons? Then that idiot came back with a solid 2007 postseason just to tick everyone off. Oh and he definitely remembered how to hit in both the 2006 & 2007 regular seasons, which is problematic when you argue that the 'pressure packed' games tell you more about predicting player performance.

 

Another example is Sabathia's 2007 postseason. He seems to have done just fine & represented his career numbers rather than suddenly being afflicted with suckiness.

 

 

I just can't muster up enough energy to start panicking about the Brewers' off season in December. Plenty of time to wheel and deal.

 

BF.net should establish a perennial 'Panicking about no moves so far this offseason' thread

 

 

"I don't want to give up either one of our shortstops," Melvin told the newspaper. "That's a premium position. J.J. has two years left [before he's a free agent]. It's just too hard to find shortstops. ... If we went with Escobar, he might struggle for a year or so offensively."

 

That's from the article logan linked. I like to hear this from Melvin -- it really sounds like his plan as of now is Escobar in AAA for 2009, and perhaps super-two-ing him for 2010. Sounds like the next offseason is about the soonest to think that Hardy would be traded, unless things change relatively drastically.

[logan82]

TooLiveBrew wrote:

BF.net should establish a perennial 'Panicking about no moves so far this offseason' thread

I think we actually have one of those this year.

[sbrylski]

"I don't want to give up either one of our shortstops," Melvin told the newspaper. "That's a premium position. J.J. has two years left [before he's a free agent]. It's just too hard to find shortstops. ... If we went with Escobar, he might struggle for a year or so offensively."

 

That's from the article logan linked; I like to hear this from Melvin -- it really sounds like his plan as of now is Escobar in AAA for 2009, and perhaps super-two-ing him for 2010. Sounds like the next offseason is about the soonest to think that Hardy would be traded, unless things change relatively drastically.

 

They say he'd be foolish not to shop him, with such a demand out there. But where is this demand going to go between now and next offseason? He'll still be valuable in 2010, and we won't have our own hole at SS for a year.

[PeaveyFury]

He'll still be valuable in 2010

 

But it's all about position scarcity as well. For example, if you're trying to fill holes this season by trading a closer (ala JJ Putz or Bobby Jenks), you're going to find your return greatly diminished because not only are other closers readily available via trade, but you've also got 4 big name closers available on the FA market.

 

In Hardy's case, Jack Wilson is apparently a highly sought after commodity this offseason, so that should speak to the scarcity of quality SS available right now.

[JohnBriggs12]

Of all the comments from Melvin, I find those about Weeks to be the most curious. Here's a guy he felt compelled to replace down the stretch last season, and now he's somehow basically untouchable? Which is it Doug? You say one thing "Weeks was near the top in runs scored for leadoff men blah, blah, blah", then you go out and find a guy (Durham) to boost the offense after which Weeks, when he did play, was hitting 7th, not leadoff.

[CheezWizHed]

Here is a grain of salt to apply to Melvin's comments:

 

Two things a GM/Coach will NEVER do (at least the sane ones):

1) Tell the media that they are no longer counting on player X, unless they have player Y in hand ready to replace him. Evidence: See Turnbow as closer last year. Application: See Weeks/Hall comments this year. Because if you don't find a replacement, the player now has a chip on his shoulder and messes up the clubhouse chmistry. Example: See Marbury and the Knicks. Sorry, Marbury, we don't need you. Oops, we are down to 6 players, can you please play?

 

2) Tell the media that he is actively shopping Player X (unless he is an absolute cancer that must be removed). Not only would that reduce the return, but again if the player isn't traded, he is upset. Of course this is always premised by the old "...if someone blows us away, we would deal anyone" (i.e. the Hershal Walker clause).

 

Melvin is smart enough to follow those two rules.

[PrinceEatMeat]

Ok, the thing about number 2 is that Melvin usually will come out and say that he will listen to offers on certain player, such as Hardy. I know that he never says he is shopping anyone, but I believe that if he wanted to trade Hardy, he at least would've said that he would listen to offers.

[joepepsi]

Of all the comments from Melvin, I find those about Weeks to be the most curious. Here's a guy he felt compelled to replace down the stretch last season, and now he's somehow basically untouchable? Which is it Doug? You say one thing "Weeks was near the top in runs scored for leadoff men blah, blah, blah", then you go out and find a guy (Durham) to boost the offense after which Weeks, when he did play, was hitting 7th, not leadoff.

He's trying to increase Weeks' value. Your bargaining position is much stronger if you appear content with a player.

[jjfanec]

He's trying to increase Weeks' value. Your bargaining position is much stronger if appear content with a player.

I think the telling statement Melvin made was that if he trading Rickie he would need a lead off hitter. Melvin would trade Weeks for the right deal if he had a deal in place for a lead off hitter, but right now trading Rickie just creates more holes. We have no internal options at 2B or for a lead off hitter (even if Weeks is not a great lead off guy).

[joepepsi]

He's trying to increase Weeks' value. Your bargaining position is much stronger if appear content with a player.

I think the telling statement Melvin made was that if he trading Rickie he would need a lead off hitter. Melvin would trade Weeks for the right deal if he had a deal in place for a lead off hitter, but right now trading Rickie just creates more holes. We have no internal options at 2B or for a lead off hitter (even if Weeks is not a great lead off guy).

Agreed. This is why I can't get behind all these proposed deals to trade Prince, JJ, Bush, etc. You don't want to fill one hole on the roster by creating another huge one.