Adam Dunn

[Hate those Rodents]

So, given the Brewers lack of quality starting pitching Homer, your answer obviously is that you would do the trade, correct?

[logan82]

Other than BA and K's, how is Fielder better than Dunn? Even if Dunn starts getting worse, and he probably will pretty soon, I think he at least equal to Fielder as a hitter.

[StearnsFTW]

I agree with all of the above reasons some teams may value Fielder over Dunn. A couple more: Fielder is 25 and hasn't reached his prime yet, and Fielder's 2007 is worth cosidering. Dunn never put up pretty counting stats, I.e., Avg/HR/RBI, like Prince did in '07. Some GMs might get their undies in a wad over the thought of those numbers.

[JohnBriggs12]

Other than BA and K's, how is Fielder better than Dunn? Even if Dunn starts getting worse, and he probably will pretty soon, I think he at least equal to Fielder as a hitter.

Those are significant differences logan3825. Dunn's low BA and high K rate are indicative of a guy who does the vast majority of his damage off of pitcher's mistakes. The best hitters are able to fight off good pitches and get some hits off pitcher's pitches.

[rluzinski]

"No, I was not suggesting we sign Dunn and release Hart. "

 

I understand what you were proposing. I was simply trying to summarize what you think would be the net gain for the Brewers in a trade like that. A more valuable corner outfielder and an ace pitcher for two years for Escobar and maybe $12 mil more money in 2009? That doesn't pass the smell test, IMO.

 

I don't think Dunn is a clear upgrade over Hart. Dunn is easily a win below average defensively. I'm much more intrigued about the possibility of trading Fielder and signing Dunn to play at 1B, though, where he's a better defensive fit. It would depend entirely on what Fielder could land the Brewers, of course.

 

I don't think Hart and Escobar could net Greinke, no matter how many teams are involved. Maybe I am undervaluing Escobar but I don't know how excited another team would get about him. Greinke is an arby player for two more years and might have a projected 3.6 ERA in the NL. Yowza!

[logan82]

JohnBriggs12 wrote:

Those are significant differences logan3825. Dunn's low BA and high K rate are indicative of a guy who does the vast majority of his damage off of pitcher's mistakes. The best hitters are able to fight off good pitches and get some hits off pitcher's pitches.

Not really. The fact that Dunn's BA is lower means when he gets hits, he hit for more power. BA and K's make little difference if the OBP and SLG are basically equal, which I would expect them to be at least next year. The only big difference is that Dunn may be good enough at 1B not to negate much of his offensive value like Fielder does.

 

Career wOBA

Dunn .383

Fielder .379

[TheCrew07]

I don't understand this urge to trade Fielder just because they won't be able to afford him 3 years from now. Is this the trend? Get a high draft pick. Let him mature in the minors for 3 years. Then, after 3 years in the majors, when he might be just about ready to hit his stride, trade him because we won't be able to afford him anyways?

 

I don't know what Fielder will get in arbitration, but I'm guessing it would be less what he would go for on the open market (and without the risk of the LT contract). Teams like the Brewers need to seek value. Right now, overweight and all, Prince is value.

 

Fielder, Braun, Hardy, Gallardo, Parra are guys that you build around and add pieces to during this window of opportunity for the Brewers, not guys you trade away just because you can't keep them forever.

In a utopian baseball league sure, but you're ignoring the likely scenario that Fielder will never sign long term with the Brewers as he's already rejected a deal similar to Braun's and Hardy is 2 years from a huge payday and it's unlikely he'll sign a 3 year deal to buy out one year of FA given his performance the last 2 seasons. Again this all comes to down what you'd rather have when the players walk, 2 draft picks or some immediate value. There's no right/wrong answer, it's a matter of opinion. In my case I'm entertaining offers for either player that includes a young SP of Parra's quality or better coming back because I'll take tangible value over draft picks every single time. The simple truth is that the closer both players get to FA, the less value they have to mid/small market MLB teams that likely won't resign them when they hit FA, which decreases the possible trade destinations.

 

On a side note, fangraphs had Fielder (30 overall) and Shields(29 overall) at equal trade value coming into the 2008 season, I would make that trade in a heartbeat. It's definitely possible to get similar value out of Prince if we're talking American league teams, but the list of likely of trade partners this offseason is dwindling. Fielder especially gets singled out because his defense is so bad it almost negates all of his offensive value, and he scoops the ball so poorly that he lowers the value of Hall & Weeks as well. Fielder has value, but he's not irreplaceable, and if the Brewers wouldn't have moved LaPorta I'd be banging the trade Fielder drum pretty loudly as RH/LH doesn't mean much to me personally.

 

The point is that Melvin should entertain fair offers that include a young SP coming to the Brewers, not that we're in a place where it's trade either player or bust. If the right deal never comes along I'll be alright with it, but I'd rather have a player than draft picks down the road so I just want Doug to keep an open mind and listen.

[Never Outhustled]

Fielder has value, but he's not irreplaceable, and if the Brewers wouldn't have moved LaPorta I'd be banging the trade Fielder drum pretty loudly as RH/LH doesn't mean much to me personally.

I don't see how Laporta would effect Fielder if he was here. He isn't ready to start in the majors. He might return to AA Akron to start next year.

 

I don't think Dunn is a clear upgrade over Hart

I'm not sure why he has to be. What Dunn does do is replace Hart, freeing him up to be traded. Sure, if you can find a FA starting pitcher for 3yrs/25-30 million, that is a good bet for 8-12 value wins over the next 3 years, I'd be interested in him instead of Dunn.. However, your not going to show me that pitcher, because he doesn't exist.

 

Dunn also provides balance to the Brewers lineup. One could argue that, even if the Brewers didn't score more runs, if there lineup scored more versus RHSP and less versus LHSP, we'd win more games. Scoring less against LHSP would mostly just reduce our margin of victory, as we've oblitorated lefties. A few more runs against RHSP would put us over the top in numerous close games. So even if Dunn is only similar in overall production to Hart, his clear advatage versus RHSP could help the Brewers win more.

 

I don't think Hart and Escobar could net Greinke, no matter how many teams are involved

I could understand you saying this if you thought Hart was no good, but your arguing Hart is better than Dunn. Dunn averages 3 wins a year, which is worth a salary of about $12 million. So Hart for must have some trade value.

 

 

Maybe I am undervaluing Escobar but I don't know how excited another team would get about him.

 

I think you underrating Escobar. You realize he is a top 25 prospect right? He just spent a full year in AA. He could have value as a big leaguer with his defense alone right now. Adam Everett and Cesar Izturis are both set to start for teams in 2009, and KC and Minnesota are still looking for starters.

[TheCrew07]

He'll start in AAA and he's closest thing the system had to a true power prospect. In my opinion some people are making way too big of a deal out of the limited number of ABs he got after the trade.

 

People say the same thing about Gamel and Escobar as well, for me personally it's about options, and we don't have many I like at 1B in the system.

[rluzinski]

I could understand you saying this if you thought Hart was no good, but your arguing Hart is better than Dunn. Dunn averages 3 wins a year, which is worth a salary of about $12 million. So Hart for must have some trade value.

 

I think he has trade value, as does Escobar. I just think Greinke is worth more. Now, if Escobar is even a league average SS (offense + defense) over the first 6 years in the majors, I'll be proven dead wrong.

[ttsather]

According to MLBTR, via Jerry Crasnick, Dunn is asking for 4 yrs, $56 MM, which is $14 MM a year.

 

Mmmkay.

[jwill535]

I am looking for 6 figures too at my new job and for some reason I am having the same success as Dunn.

[Invader3K]

According to MLBTR, via Jerry Crasnick, Dunn is asking for 4 yrs, $56 MM, which is $14 MM a year.

 

Mmmkay.

Which might mean he ends up getting like 4 yrs and $12MM per, or maybe 3 yrs and about $45MM total.

[raven2479]

Just heard on MLB Radio on XM that Dunn to Milwaukee is no longer an option. MLB TR just posted it up as well.

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors...9/01/brewers-no-long.html

[TooLiveBrew]

Ack.

 

I'm going to do my best to ignore that & live in denial... blissfully hoping Dunn will still somehow land in Milwaukee.

[fondybrewfan]

mlbTR is blocked at my work. What is the reason for Dunn to the Crew no longer being an option? Is it strictly financial?

[Patrick425]

From mlbTR:

MLB.com's Adam McCalvy spoke to Brewers GM Doug Melvin, who indicated the team is no longer interested in free agent slugger Adam Dunn. The possibility was considered when the Brewers were discussing a Mike Cameron trade with the Yankees (Corey Hart would've moved to center field). Cameron and Hart are staying put.

Another scenario, which Ken Rosenthal discussed a week ago, is trading Prince Fielder and replacing him with Dunn. McCalvy doesn't dismiss the idea outright, but notes that the Crew would be treading water in terms of lefthanded bats

[Invader3K]

I've pretty much resigned myself to the likelihood that the Brewers will be going into Opening Day with the team pretty much "as is." Just seems like Melvin doesn't have any realistic options left to make any significant moves. Sure, we might see a couple minor tweaks, but I think the starting lineup and rotation are pretty much set "as is," at least as far as Melvin is concerned.

[joepepsi]

I think there's going to be another innings eater/back of the rotation starter added, and a left handed bat, maybe someone like Hinske.

[PeaveyFury]

Well, three weeks ago the Brewers weren't interested in Hoffman either.

[Invader3K]

I'm guessing either Dunn isn't interested in playing in Milwaukee, or there is some other suitor out there willing to go far and above what the Brewers would be willing to do.

[TheCrew07]

When have we ever been able to take Melvin's comments at face value? I find it very difficult to get worked up either way because of the rumor mill.

[trwi7]

We weren't interested in Hoffman at one point either.

 

http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/sports/35937804.html

 

I'm sure Melvin is still interested in Dunn to some degree.

[TooLiveBrew]

The trouble with signing Dunn means that someone has to go. Of course I've been repeating that I'd like to see Hart dealt for pitching (assumption there is that he has good trade value) & Dunn signed to man LF... Braun sliding to RF.

 

Fielder is another one that could be dealt, but I agree with others that have commented that would kind of defeat the point of adding a second LH power bat (Dunn). I just don't think Melvin views Hart as one that should be moved -- he might be right on that, too, if that's indeed what he thinks.

[sheetswannabe]

Trade Hart for Kelly Johnson +.

 

Trade Weeks and grade A/B prospect for a number 2 starter

 

Sign Dunn.

 

Thoughts?