Adam Dunn

[homer]

"Fielder is a better all around hitter than Dunn. He hits for higher average, strikes out less, has a higher slugging percentage hits more doubles. and his biggest HR and RBI year (accomplished in 3 full seasons) is better than any of Dunn's 7 full seasons. "

 

But is he that much better than Dunn + a starting pitcher?

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

But is he that much better than Dunn + a starting pitcher?

Homer sees the light. Let's put it in mathmatical format for better understanding:

 

Dunn + #2 type starting pitcher > Fielder

[PeaveyFury]

I'm not sure I understand. If Dunn costs $10mil more than Fielder over the next 3 years...how do the Brewers use that money to pay a pitcher?

 

The pitcher the Brewers acquire would almost certainly be a young-ish player that wouldn't be making much money.

 

But that still leaves Abreu and Floyd. And the Nats want to dump Johnson. And then you have Nomar, Wigginton, and Durham.

 

And Fielder is better than every single one of those players. So you can choose between signing inferior players or giving up something to get a good, young hitter. Not nearly as cut and dried as you seem to think it is.

 

But is he that much better than Dunn + a starting pitcher?

 

Exactly. Fielder may be a better hitter than Dunn, but Dunn seems pretty likely to be better defensively than Prince as it is, but Dunn and say Brandon Morrow are worth much more than just Fielder to the Brewers.

[Tbadder]

But who would trade a really valuable commidity for a giant burrito with a lot of demands? If I were Seattle or SF no way would I want Fielder. I'd just sign Dunn and not have to worry about dealing young stud pitching, which is about the most detrimental thing a ball club can do.

[Patrick425]

PeaveyFury[/b]]I'm not sure I understand. If Dunn costs $10mil more than Fielder over the next 3 years...how do the Brewers use that money to pay a pitcher?

 

The pitcher the Brewers acquire would almost certainly be a young-ish player that wouldn't be making much money.

 

Ok, I think I understand. The way Stevo worded it..it was kind of confusing.

Ok so we acquire some young stud pitcher who is not arby eligible and that will be much cheaper than Fielder. Who? Are there a lot of those guys around that teams would be willing to give up for Fielder? Also, I would have to assume that this "stud" pitcher would be available for arby in the very near future. What then? Do we wring our hands again and go "Oh No", we better trade him before he lose him to free agency? Where does the cycle end?

 

It seems like only a 3 or 4 years ago everyone was waiting anxiously for Weeks, Fielder and Co. to come. Finally the Brewers would be able to contend again. Now, they are here for 3 years and everyone wants to trade them away. Fielder has one year where he puts on some weight and takes a small step back in production and everyone is ready to throw in the towel. I'm going to go out on a limb and say that Fielder is well aware of how his performance over the next 3 years will effect the potential mountain of gold that awaits him. I think he's going to have 3 very productive years. I'm not excited about trading that away for Dunn and some mystery pitcher.

[endaround]

All those players are significantly better than Fielder defensively and a healthy Johnson meets him offensively. Why would the Giants give up Cain or the Angels Santana for Fielder when they get 2/3rds the player and keep Cain or Santana?

[sbrylski]

Also, I would have to assume that this "stud" pitcher would be available for arby in the very near future. What then? Do we wring our hands again and go "Oh No", we better trade him before he lose him to free agency? Where does the cycle end?

 

Money is not the motivation. The motivation is finding a way to add another SP. Keeping the increase in payroll to a minimum is just a limiting factor. A few years from now, we could possibly give the young pitcher Suppan's money.

 

And who cares if that's the cycle? If we get better each time while keeping the payroll stagnant, its a successful strategy.

[Patrick425]

sbrylski06[/b]]Also, I would have to assume that this "stud" pitcher would be available for arby in the very near future. What then? Do we wring our hands again and go "Oh No", we better trade him before he lose him to free agency? Where does the cycle end?

 

Money is not the motivation. The motivation is finding a way to add another SP. Keeping the increase in payroll to a minimum is just a limiting factor. A few years from now, we could possibly give the young pitcher Suppan's money.

 

And who cares if that's the cycle? If we get better each time while keeping the payroll stagnant, its a successful strategy.

I understand the concept and ok, maybe I can buy the argument of Dunn + pitcher is better than Fielder, but again, who is this pitcher? People keep bringing up guys like Matt Cain. Assuming Matt Cain provides as much to his team as Prince Fielder does, why would SF do this? Matt Cain is schedule to make 2.65M in 2009, 4.25M in 2010, and a club option of 6.25 in 2011. While Fielder will probably get $7M or more each of the next 3 years. Same with Ervin Santana. Why would the Angels to that trade?

 

I sure hope that no one would be for trading Fielder for a "can't miss" prospect pitcher with little or no MLB experience.

[Tbadder]

It would have to be for a major league ready can't miss prospect pitcher plus one or two more top ten prospects, plus more from the lower levels. I'd say four or five total prospects with one slotting no worse than a #3 starting pitcher.

[Pudster13]

I have a source that has indicated that the Milwaukee Brewers have NO plans to trade 1B Prince Fielder during the 2008-9 Offseason.

[yoshii8]

Is it Doug Melvin, who has said it a couple of times this off-season?

[CheezWizHed]

If Prince was to be traded this offseason, I think it would have been done by now. Teams normally get the big trades done first and fill the gaps later.

[Oldcity]

Nick Johnson hasn't been healthy in years, and Fielder is much better than everyone else you mentioned endaround. Half the teams in baseball can use Prince as a DH. Just because his defense is awful doesn't mean nobody will want him.

 

The Angels have a ton of pitching and didn't score runs last year. They should be going after Dunn, but Sciosciaball hates Ks. They seem to be a perfect match for a Fielder trade IMO. I know you said they have many DH/1B types, but Fielder is better than any of them.

[PeaveyFury]

but again, who is this pitcher?

 

I mentioned Brandon Morrow in my previous post. Ervin Santana is another great example.

 

Is it Doug Melvin, who has said it a couple of times this off-season?

 

If it is, then Fielder is almost sure to be traded soon. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

 

If Prince was to be traded this offseason, I think it would have been done by now. Teams normally get the big trades done first and fill the gaps later.

 

I was under the impression that it usually works the other way- trades don't happen until the free agents are taken care of and teams are sure of what they need.

[StearnsFTW]

I'm not sure how much better this makes the Brewers, but I would salivate over Morrow and a Dunn signing. I'm not sure how Jack Z feels about Prince, but if we could get Morrow, I'd be on that like a bad suit.

 

Fielder is significantly more valuable to an AL team, as has been mentioned. He seems like he'll be a well above average DH, at least part-time. He strikes me as a guy that just isn't interested in fielding, and would shine as a DH. Just my feeling, certainly no quotes or anything, just what I get from his body language.

 

This makes the Brewers better this year, and better in the future, assuming Morrow reaches anywhere close to his considerable talent.

 

I wouldn't deal Fielder for Cain, and I don't think the Angels would deal Santana for Fielder (although I'd like that too).

 

He's the simplest path to a young, impact pitcher. I don't think Melvin will actually do any of this, but it's fun to dream.

 

This plan also may leave room to sign another bullpen arm, which I think this team still needs badly. If we have about $5M of room remaining, and Dunn makes about $2.5M more than Fielder's arb #, that leaves $2.5M for a good/decent arm.

[DHonks]

Actually, the plan does provide cost certainty. As of now, it sounds like Dunn may fall into the $7-9 million per year range, possibly lower. A 5 year $42 million offer might get it done, as it's better than every other rumor I've read for Dunn. Fielder will likely cost around $7.5 million this year, $10 million in 2010, and $13 million in 2011. So endaround, to me the comment about cost savings makes sense. Additionally, the cost certainty would be nice, knowing what to budget in the payroll at 1st base for years to come. And landing a free agent would give us a happy player.

 

Throw in that Dunn has got to be around 6-8" taller than Fielder, meaning a much better reach at first base.

[Teatoe993]

Just thinking out loud here. Assuming that we traded Prince and signed Dunn...Is Dunn gonna be any upgrade at 1B? Dunn sounds pretty unproven and could be just as much a butcher as Prince. If this were the case, I'm wondering if it would be better to move Dunn into a corner outfield spot and have Hart play 1B. When was the last time Corey played 1B? He couldn't be any worse than Big Sexy could he?

[Ennder]

I'm wondering if it would be better to move Dunn into a corner outfield spot and have Hart play 1B. When was the last time Corey played 1B?

 

Dunn is a butcher in the OF, you don't want him out there if you can avoid it. You certainly don't move an average OF to 1B to make room for him.

[sheetswannabe]

I like the idea of signing Dunn for 1B, then trade Fielder for young but good pitching

[dpapo]

As has already been mentioned here, why would a team trade good, young pitching for Fielder, when they could just keep their young pitchers and sign Dunn. It won't really save them money and young pitching has more value. In fact, as has also been mentioned here, it would be cheaper in the long run to sign Dunn. And you wouldn't be giving up valuable, good young pitching.

[sheetswannabe]

Fielders younger than Dunn. And Cheaper.

[sbrylski]

Fielders younger than Dunn. And Cheaper.

And better. And some clubs are still K adverse. Many teams probably view the two as close to a push, but there's no doubt there are also multiple teams that would prefer Fielder to Dunn by a sizable margin.

[dpapo]

Fielder may be cheaper for one year, but even that may not be the case. Plus, if money is an issue, then signing Dunn would make more sense as Fielder's salary is going to increase over the next few years. And Fielder is going to become a free agent in 3 years, so they would probably lose him to free agency, while they could just sign Dunn to a 3 year deal, which would be cheaper over that time and they wouldn't have given up good, young pitchers.

On top of that, there is Fielder's weight issue and first base isn't exacly the toughest position to find a good hitter.

If it's just a case of whether a team would rather have Dunn or Fielder, sure teams would rather have Fielder. However, when you include good, young pitching, which is the most valued thing in baseball, then it doesn't make much sense to trade young pitching for Fielder.

Thing of it this way, if your the Brewers and you didn't have Fielder. Would you trade Gallardo for Fielder or you would you just keep Gallardo and sign Dunn.

[Never Outhustled]

A deal like this would be the Brewers doing a Billy Beane impersonation and taking advantage of a market inequity. Dunn is downgraded for his K's, which in real perspective makes him 1/3 of a run worse than Fielder over an entire season. That small amount isn't even worth factoring in, yet it is costing Dunn millions.

We could sign a pitcher instead of signing Dunn and trading for a pitcher, but I guarantee any pitcher that gets a 3 year deal for around $30 million won't produce as many wins for a team than Dunn will over the next 3 years.

Thing of it this way, if your the Brewers and you didn't have Fielder. Would you trade Gallardo for Fielder or you would you just keep Gallardo and sign Dunn.

Its not what the people here think, its what baseball executives think. Everyone here is well versed in saber-metrics. Only a few MLB teams recognize the art. Theres still a decent number of teams that look at batting average, those being the teams that aren't interested in Dunn. Also, don't discount the fact that Fielder is a name player, and he would create a shortterm buzz at the boxoffice for a team that is struggling to sell tickets. Dunn is the least known 40 homer a year player maybe in baseball history. That shouldn't matter, but it does when meddlesome owners get involved.

[homer]

Thing of it this way, if your the Brewers and you didn't have Fielder. Would you trade Gallardo for Fielder or you would you just keep Gallardo and sign Dunn.

That would depend on the rest of my pitching staff .