Adam Dunn

[endaround]

Abreau can't play the field as well as even Dunn. He wouldn't upgrade the team.

[rluzinski]

Signing a corner outfielder has to be about the 10th thing on Melvin's list of things to do this off season. Hart and Braun are cheap and better than average.

[brewcrewkid14]

I agree with you Russ, but I don't know...the more I think about Melvin doing this, the more it makes sense.

 

If he is able to do this, he can either:

 

a) trade Hart + mid/top-tier prospect for a guy like Greinke

 

or

 

b) trade Fielder + low/mid-tier prospect for a guy like Greinke

 

Right now, I don't know which I'd prefer it to be. I would almost say that it would be smarter financially, for the farm system, and for team chemistry to move Fielder instead. Hart's glove out in RF is top notch, and Dunn would at worst be the same as what Fielder is at First Base (I have to imagine he would be better). Obviously, we have more depth in the corner outfield position, making Hart more expendable, but I feel like it's too early to give up on a potential five-tool guy in right field who comes with no baggage and plays his heart out.

 

I just don't see any starting pitching options out there right now for the 'crew; I feel that is the one piece missing from this team that will make them competitive with the Cubs.

EDIT: The one guy I see on the market who fits with our team right now is Ben Sheets; however, I get the feeling that the likelihood of him coming back is slim. I just sense that him and Melvin have burned bridges, and that it's time to move in a different direction. In my opinion, he is the only guy that makes sense for this team right now, but if it's not possible, then we need to get creative.

[Never Outhustled]

Signing a corner outfielder has to be about the 10th thing on Melvin's list of things to do this off season. Hart and Braun are cheap and better than average.

Oh, so your plan for starting pitching to to just sign a young, cheap, healthy established pitcher to a below market rate? We're exploring ways add offense and free up trading chips for pitching. I hope you can catch up, as I'd love to hear your ideas to improve the team.

We've already seen reports stating the Brewers contacted Dunn when a Cameron deal looked iminent, why couldn't we due the same with Hart? Hart is Brewer property for 3 more years, but he'll only be cheap for 1 more year if he plays well. Theres little doubt Dunn will hit about 40 Homers next year, as he hits 40 homers every year. We have no idea what kind of production we'll get from Hart next year.

[Never Outhustled]

Hart's glove out in RF is top notch,

 

 

Hart's defense was actually below average in RF last season, because his lackadaisical play lead to numerous errors.

[Invader3K]

I don't know if I'd call Hart "lackadaisical", but you can't pretend he's a gold glover either. He's still young, and hopefully will still improve as an OF.

[nate82]

Signing a corner outfielder has to be about the 10th thing on Melvin's list of things to do this off season. Hart and Braun are cheap and better than average.

Yes but if the Brewers are going to get a starting pitcher they are either going to have to trade someone or take on more salary. With Hoffman signing and the increases in the arbitration eligible players the team salary should be close to $80 million which is about where the team was at the start of last year. I'm guessing there is about $5 million of wiggle room to add another player to the team.

 

That means Melvin is going to have to trade for a starting pitcher if he is going to be acquiring a starting pitcher. I don't see any players the Brewers could or should sign for $5 million.

 

In order to even trade for a starting pitcher the Brewers are going to have to trade value (prospects), buy low and sell low, or increase the team salary to about $90 million. I could see Bedard as the buy low and sell low partner with Hart. If the Brewers can trade Hart for a starting pitcher like Bedard. Replacing Bedard with Hart should add 1 or 2 wins to the team. Adding Dunn would be a wash with Hart IMHO. But then there is the problem with the team salary again. Dunn probably wouldn't be able to be squeezed into the teams salary range. I'm not 100% confident in trading Cameron to the Yankees for Cabrera would net us that many more wins.

 

An OF of Braun, Cabrera/Gwynn?, Dunn would be a rather bad defensive OF and I believe it would cost us more wins than Dunn's offense could bring back for us.

 

The Brewers still need another starting pitcher. This is going to be addressed in a trade I believe. Dunn makes sense for the Brewers if the Brewers trade Hart/Cameron. But Hall would need to be traded and that opens up a bigger hole that I don't believe Melvin wants to open up.

[rluzinski]

When you consider defense, I don't think that Dunn even represents an upgrade over Hart. In fact, some projections suggest Hart will be the better player over the next 3 years. You know Dunn will give you 40 HRs and a comical display of defense in the outfield every year. Considering that Hart will easily be the cheaper player, I think you are better off just holding onto him.

 

Oh, so your plan for starting pitching to to just sign a young, cheap, healthy established pitcher to a below market rate?

 

I was getting the impression that you think the Brewers could upgrade RF and get Greinke for Escobar and a little cash. I don't think Dunn is an upgrade over Hart (I'd call it a wash), nor do I think your trade proposal is realistic. Of course, it's easy to call any trade scenario that involves three teams, unrealistic. If you aren't suggesting that Dunn represents more wins than Hart, I take my original comment back.

[Oldcity]

The best scenario in my opinion would be to sign Dunn to play first and then trade Fielder. Dunn shouldn't be much worse than a wash, and actually is probably an upgrade from Fielder. Then you can trade Fielder for young pitcher and you don't need to worry about Dunn's bad outfield defense.

[brewcrewkid14]

Is it unreal to think that they could trade Fielder and not Hart if they got Dunn? That would improve the defense, and we'd still be getting about the same production (with lower upside, obviously) out of the first base position.

[nate82]

Along with those 40 HR's Dunn brings he also brings a .380 OBP and a .900 OPS. His defense is his biggest downfall and he would be more valuable as a 1B/DH. Over at fangraphs in value wins they had Dunn at 1.9 and Hart was at 1.6. I'm not saying Hart is worse than Dunn just based on last year. Dunn's offense is still better than his defensive downfalls though. Dunn will be 30 years old at the end of the season though.

I would really like to add Dunn to the team because of his OBP skills other than Fielder there is no one else on the Brewers who has good OBP.

[Invader3K]

It's been brought up before, but Dunn hasn't really played much 1B at all. Who knows if he would actually be amenable to starting there on a regular basis?

[Never Outhustled]

When you consider defense, I don't think that Dunn even represents an upgrade over Hart. In fact, some projections suggest Hart will be the better player over the next 3 years. You know Dunn will give you 40 HRs and a comical display of defense in the outfield every year. Considering that Hart will easily be the cheaper player, I think you are better off just holding onto him.

Where did you see these projections that Hart would be so vauable? I've seen 3 projections for Hart next year, and the highest one had him at a 336 OBA and a 832 OPS. Dunn should continue to be the same player he has been, as he'd finish his 3 year contract before he turns 32. If Hart plays as well as you are hoping, he'll only be significantly cheaper than Dunn next year, and could be more expensive in 2011.

 

 

I was getting the impression that you think the Brewers could upgrade RF and get Greinke for Escobar and a little cash.

 

 

No, I was not suggesting we sign Dunn and release Hart. I was suggesting we add a 900 OPS left-handed bat with a heavy OBA, a huge need for a team that finished just 6th in runs with an almost all right-handed lineup, and then trade Hart packaged with Escobar for the starting pitcher we need. I find it stange that in 1 sentence you say Hart will be awesome the next 3 years, and in the next you insinuate that he has little trade value.

 

 

Over at fangraphs in value wins they had Dunn at 1.9 and Hart was at 1.6.

True, but Dunn's numbers are skewed because of Arizona's ill-advised move to start Dunn in RF 23 times, a position he hasn't played. He committed a few of errors, which blows up the UZR stat. Before last season, Dunn averaged 3 wins per season. At 3 wins per year, he would be underpaidat $10 million a season.

[Patrick425]

Ok, Just kind of skimmed though this whole thread. As mentioned, adding Dunn would necessitate the trading of another player...most likely Cameron, Hart, or Fielder. Unless the Brewers can some how save money by adding Dunn and trading another player, to me going after Dunn would be like needing a new roof on your house, but going out and buying a big entertainment system instead.

 

I'm not a huge Dunn fan. Just like I'm not a huge Branyan fan. I know ..*gasp*..how could anyone not like these sabermetric gods?? The people that come up with those stats are very smart people and probably know what they are talking about and are probably correct in their valuation of guys like that and that K's don't matter. Still, my frustration goes through the roof when it's the late innings of a tie or 1 run game..guy on second...and up comes the all or nothing guy taking wild hacks with nothing on his mind but hitting a HR. UUUGHHH!!! That's when I turn off the TV.

[Invader3K]

I just think he'd look really good in that lineup. Between Dunn, Fielder, and Braun, you'd have the potential to put up 120 homers in one season. That doesn't even factor in Hardy, Cameron, Hart, etc. Let's face it, this is a power team, and adding Dunn would augment it. I know some people would like to see guys change their approaches at the plate, but that kind of retraining doesn't usually happen in one season, I would guess.

 

My money right now would be for him to end up with the LAD after they get sick of waiting on Boras to get serious regarding Manny.

[yoyomayoma]

http://msn.foxsports.com/...-Brewers-acquire-pitching

[endaround]

God that is a stupid article from Rosenthal. Cost certainty? Its certain Dunn will cost $10m or more than Fielder over the next three years. And no one wants Fielder this offseason. Why give up Cain for Fielder at $5-6m when you can sign Abreu for $7-8m? The Angels already have too many OFers/1B/DH types with Rivera now in the fold

[Oldcity]

The cost certainty part doesn't make sense, but I don't see anything wrong with the rest of it. You keep saying nobody wants Fielder, but I don't see how that could be true. Dunn is the last good power hitter available in free agency. If the Brewers sign him, Fielder would absolutely be attractive to many teams. Abreu is going to be a lot worse than Fielder over the course of the next three years, yet you cite him as the reason people wouldn't trade for Fielder? I just don't see it.

[Patrick425]

Yeah, unless you feel the Brewers have no chance to make the playoffs for the next 3 years, I don't understand this urge to trade Fielder just because they won't be able to afford him 3 years from now. Is this the trend? Get a high draft pick. Let him mature in the minors for 3 years. Then, after 3 years in the majors, when he might be just about ready to hit his stride, trade him because we won't be able to afford him anyways?

 

I don't know what Fielder will get in arbitration, but I'm guessing it would be less what he would go for on the open market (and without the risk of the LT contract). Teams like the Brewers need to seek value. Right now, overweight and all, Prince is value.

 

Look at it another way. What if Prince were a free agent and we could sign him for $8 million (arby guess), with club options for 2010 and 2011. Wouldn't that sound pretty good? Yes, I realize that they could get something in return by trading Prince, but I don't think what we get in return will equal the value that Fielder will bring over the next 3 years. I also realize that they could a better deal now for Prince than they could 2 years from now, but again, to me, that's like giving up on this year and eventually, even if you get some young stud pitcher in return, that pitcher will become FA eligible at some point as well.

 

Fielder, Braun, Hardy, Gallardo, Parra are guys that you build around and add pieces to during this window of opportunity for the Brewers, not guys you trade away just because you can't keep them forever.

[Oldcity]

How is it giving up when you're replacing Fielder with Dunn? Dunn is likely to at least match Fielder's production over the next three seasons. Like endaround said, it would be paying maybe ten mil more over the next three years for Dunn as opposed to Fielder, but that extra ten mil (over three years) allows you to pick up a good pitcher with several years of team control.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

I've been talking about trading Fielder since July. It only makes sense. We need pitching and Prince is the best way to obtain it. Signing a guy like Dunn for a similar price only makes sense. Good article by Rosenthal.

[Patrick425]

How is it giving up when you're replacing Fielder with Dunn? Dunn is likely to at least match Fielder's production over the next three seasons. Like endaround said, it would be paying maybe ten mil more over the next three years for Dunn as opposed to Fielder, but that extra ten mil (over three years) allows you to pick up a good pitcher with several years of team control.

I'm not sure I understand. If Dunn costs $10mil more than Fielder over the next 3 years...how do the Brewers use that money to pay a pitcher?

[TooLiveBrew]

Is this the trend? Get a high draft pick. Let him mature in the minors for 3 years. Then, after 3 years in the majors, when he might be just about ready to hit his stride, trade him because we won't be able to afford him anyways?

 

The reason Prince gets singled out is that his defense is so bad that it makes him just an above-average player if he has a season like 2008, and other teams will likely still be enticed by the 50-HR potential. I think it's just people wanting to sell high on Fielder, but I agree with you in that I'd rather not ship Prince off just yet.

[endaround]

So teh Brewers sign Dunn. But that still leaves Abreu and Floyd. And the Nats want to dump Johnson. And then you have Nomar, Wigginton, and Durham.

[JohnBriggs12]

How is it giving up when you're replacing Fielder with Dunn? Dunn is likely to at least match Fielder's production over the next three seasons. Like endaround said, it would be paying maybe ten mil more over the next three years for Dunn as opposed to Fielder, but that extra ten mil (over three years) allows you to pick up a good pitcher with several years of team control.

 

Fielder is a better all around hitter than Dunn. He hits for higher average, strikes out less, has a higher slugging percentage hits more doubles. and his biggest HR and RBI year (accomplished in 3 full seasons) is better than any of Dunn's 7 full seasons.