Adam Dunn

[adambr2]

With the prior rumors of the Royals being willing to trade Grienke for Francouer, I'd sweeten the pot and offer the Royals Hart and a decent prospect (Green or Lucroy) for Grienke. This would be no real payroll increase for the Brewers, so we could then afford to sign Dunn and our offseason would be complete. Our rotation would be:

 

1 - Gallardo

2 - Grienke

3 - Parra

4 - Bush

5 - Suppan

 

And for our lineup, something like this would be ideal:

 

1 - Weeks

2 - Dunn

3 - Braun

4 - Fielder

5 - Hardy

6 - Cameron

7 - Hall/Lamb

8 - Pitcher

9 - Kendall

 

That's a perfect lineup to bat the pitcher 8th in, though I doubt they'd return to it. That, my friends, is a great rotation and a lineup that can flat out rake. Dunn/Braun/Fielder for the meat of the order is tough for any pitcher. The lineup would probably set the franchise strikeout record, but a franchise record for runs scored, too.

[ILuvDaBush]

How many HR's could we pencil in for our 3-5 hitters then? Over/under on 122!

[StearnsFTW]

I'll take the over. Braun hits 50 with that lineup. The rumored Greinke/Francouer was fantasy on the part of a writer. It's a ridiculous notion. Greinke costs Escobar and Gamel, or Hardy and Gamel. They have no use for Hart either.

[TheCrew07]

I'm not sure why people around here are so fascinated by Greinke... I really wish guys like Marcum and McGowan (both of whom I had in mind before the Sabathia trade) wouldn't have gotten hurt because Toronto has much better pitching than KC, as does TB, Seattle, and LAA.

 

At any rate, there's no way a pitcher with Greinke's history is worth an All-Star SS and a top 25 prospect (guessing on BA's rank). I'd be mildly disappointed if Hardy was traded for Greinke straight up.

[JohnBriggs12]

Forget Grienke. A much more logical guy to target is Jonathon Sanchez. According to Chris Haft on the Giants website, Sabean is hinting he might listen to trade offers for Sanchez now that Randy Johnson is signed. They want a guy who will not be a FA after 2009, and Hart fills that bill for them wheras Xavier Nady, who they have been looking at, doesn't.

 

While I haven't been all that high on Dunn because of his defense and K's, I have to say adambr2's lineup is certainly intriguing. Barring injury, you'd have to figure 170 HR from just 5 guys. Get 60 total out of Hall, Weeks, Lamb, and the bench, and now you're a 230 HR team. That might not win but it would be fun to watch and will keep people in the seats.

 

I also kind of like the "pitcher shook up" effect facing Dunn, Braun, and Fielder would have. I would suspect Hardy would really benefit.

[sbrylski]

Greinke v Sanchez:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs/7507_1943_P_cseason_full_0_20080930.png

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs/7507_1943_P_cseason_full_3_20080930.png

 

And Greinke is a year younger. He's easily the better pitcher.

 

If you are talking about the net value of a trade, maybe targeting Sanchez is better. And not that I don't like Sanchez, but if anyone was asked if they'd prefer him or Greinke on their team, it should be Greinke hands down.

[Oldcity]

I would guess Sabean already offered Sanchez for Hardy, which Melvin obviously turned down. Melvin said something about the Giants offering "a fourth starter type" if I remember correctly.

[mothershipconnection]

I'm not sure why people around here are so fascinated by Greinke.

 

Once upon a time, Greinke had struggled and had some psych problems that put his future in doubt. At that time, he may have been reasonable to acquire, but now he's a 25 year-old top of the rotation pitcher. I think people are still under the illusion that he could be had at his potential 2006 price. As much as I'd love to get him and longed for us to make an offer in 2006, he's not coming at less than a king's ransom.

 

At any rate, there's no way a pitcher with Greinke's history is worth an All-Star SS and a top 25 prospect (guessing on BA's rank). I'd be mildly disappointed if Hardy was traded for Greinke straight up.

 

Dude just posted a 3.47 ERA (3.65 FIP) over 202 IP at age 24. That's not a player you're going to get without giving up a whole crap load. As much as I like Hardy, Melvin would buy a couple years of free passes on shaky moves from me if he pulled off a trade for Greinke.

[endaround]

That Greinke is likely available is a big reason he's targeted. He's only under contract for two more seasons and the Royals are unlikely to pay him or be good enough to use him. But for the same reason they aren't taking anyone currently on the Brewers save Gallalrdo or Parra in return and moving either of those isn't a good idea for the Brewers.

[TheCrew07]

I'm not saying he's not a good pitcher, I expect Yo to put up similar numbers next year. I'm just not into guys with "mental" issues. I'm not making light of it, I hope him well, I just don't trust him, he's closer to FA than I would like, he's KC's ace pitcher, and why would KC trade him for 2 years of Hardy and 2 draft picks. Maybe they'd deal Hochevar, but I don't feel as good about him, not just his performance albiet a 1 year very small sample, but his draft antics as well. I think for the Brewers to acquire a pitcher the buyer obviously has to be motivated, so who's got pitching, is in their window to compete, and desperately needs another bat at SS or 1B/DH? That's a pretty short list of AL teams... the Rays seem like a perfect fit, they've made a couple of trades in the past, but they probably want to move Neimann and there's just no way a package for Fielder wouldn't include one of their top 4 pitchers... now some teams with excess pitching that may be looking to rebuild, that's another story, but again outside of Salome whom can the Brewers really part with? The Sabathia deal simply limited the possibilities going forward.

[endaround]

Who can the Brewers part with? Salome, Brewer, Gillespie, Green if they move Lawrie, Gindl, Nelson, Irribarren

[kramnoj]

I'm just not into guys with "mental" issues. I'm not making light of it,

 

If you're not making light of it, putting quotes around mental doesn't serve much purpose.

 

Besides, the Greinke talk is more idle speculation than anything based on what the Royals are doing. The Royals have shown a willingness to spend money with Meche and Guillen, they aren't going to trade away Greinke because they don't want to pay him.

[TheCrew07]

Quanity doesn't make up for a lack of Quality... not a single top 100 prospect for Greinke, KC fans would riot, any team's fans would riot if they gave up a good young pitcher for that, and rightly so.

 

Salome may not stick at C which would severly limit his value and why he doesn't make any top prospect lists. I agree the team would likely look to include him, but the value of his bat is directly tied to how well he does behind the plate.

 

Brewer is toolsy but a good 3 years away defensively if he sticks at SS.

 

Gillespie is a 4th outfielder with a bad arm, he's solid but unspectacular.

 

Green has value, but he fills 2 positions of need, he'd be another guy the Brewer's would dangle as they could potential live without him regardless of how much I like the young man.

 

Gindl I really like, but he's only an A baller with size concerns and doesn't have much trade value at this moment in time.

 

Nelson would be a throw in, he's very solid depth.

 

Irribarren is similar to Nelson, a solid depth guy with limited defensive flexibility.

[StearnsFTW]

I'm not saying I would trade Hardy+ for Greinke (although it would depend on the "+"). If that extra player is Gamel, then no way. But if it's a player like Brewer or even Salome, who I just don't think will stick at catcher, I would definitely make that deal. Greinke is a valuable guy.

 

My only point in bringing up those names was to show what I believe to be Greinke's value.

[Never Outhustled]

Melvin would have to be creative to get Grienke, but it can be done. The Royals want a SS so they can move Mike Aviles to 2B, and I'd assume they'd want a top pitching prospect to replace Grienke. The Reds offered Homer Bailey for Jermaine Dye, and they've said publically they'd still like to add an OF, so I'm sure they'd covet Hart. Hart for a package centered around Bailey, who'd be sent to KC along with Alcides Escobar for Greinke.

 

Sign Adum Dunn.

 

Compete for playoffs again in 2009.

 

Compete for playoffs again in 2010.

 

In 2011 worry about possible hole at SS if Brewer isn't ready in 2011.

[JohnBriggs12]

Greinke v Sanchez:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs/7507_1943_P_cseason_full_0_20080930.png

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs/7507_1943_P_cseason_full_3_20080930.png

 

And Greinke is a year younger. He's easily the better pitcher.

 

If you are talking about the net value of a trade, maybe targeting Sanchez is better. And not that I don't like Sanchez, but if anyone was asked if they'd prefer him or Greinke on their team, it should be Greinke hands down.

I didn't argure that Grienke wasn't the more accomplished pitcher. You could have saved your research. It's about trade value and managing payroll. Grienke is going to get a real big salary bump this year and for the Royals to move him is going to take an overwhelming offer. Sanchez isn't arby eligible for another year. He's the same age as Parra and about as equally accomplished. This thread is about Dunn, and to get Dunn is going to take some real money even in this somewhat depressed market. Hart for Sanchez is pretty equal value. Hart for Grienke won't get it done.

 

Hardy is one of 3 core Brewers that has actually produced at a consistent high level over 2 straight seasons. Trading him for any pitcher until they are certain Escobar is ready is very risky.

[trwi7]

I agree with Briggs. Sanchez is probably the better value to us. To get Greinke, we would have to trade Hardy most likely. Since there's no replacement on the free agent market, and I don't trust that Escobar is ready, I wouldn't do that trade. It strengthens the rotation, but severely weakens the offense. The same can't be said about a Hart for Sanchez swap. There are still plenty of outfielders on the market that could replace and probably do better than Hart.

 

Sanchez posted a 3.85 FIP and tRA of 4.23 last year and struck out a batter per inning. He also had a high BABIP and low LOB%. If those get to around league average, he'll improve.

 

He also seemed to hit a wall, at the end of June he had a 3.79 ERA in 102 innings. Problem is he only pitched 63.2 innings the year before, so there may have been some fatigue.

 

I'm just not sure the Giants would trade Sanchez for Hart. They have Lewis, Sanchez, Winn and Schierholtz in the minors. Outfielder doesn't seem to be a pressing need for them.

[rm121978]

Source: Dodgers contact Dunn

 

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3798366

[JohnBriggs12]

"I'm just not sure the Giants would trade Sanchez for Hart. They have Lewis, Winn and Schierholtz. Outfielder doesn't seem to be a pressing need for them".

 

Not quite sure I agree with that at all trwi7. Benjie Molina led this team with 16 HR last year. Lewis has gap power but he's not a prototypical LF. Schierholtz has shown some power in the minors but has just 1 HR in 187 major league AB's. I'd say both those guys make great 4th outfielders. As for Winn, well he's 35 and entering the last year of his contract. They're likely to be looking to move him at the deadline if they aren't in contention.

[Never Outhustled]

According to this and this, Adam Dunn is running out of options. The Nationals were a likely target, but they've given up on free agency this year, and the Cubs and Dodgers are the only other team besides the Brewers we've seen have contact with him. The Cubs have instead signed Milton Bradley, and the Dodgers are still targeting Man Ram.

 

With Pat Burrel signing for 2yrs/$16 million and Milton Bradley signing for 3 yrs/$30 million I'd guess Dunn could be had for 3 yrs/25 million, and I'd be willing to do 3 yrs/$30 million if nessecary. Thats a nice deal for the age 29-31 year old years of a 900 OPS guy.

 

I'm still in favor of what I posted earlier, so I'll re-post it:

 

Melvin would have to be creative to get Grienke, but it can be done. The Royals want a SS so they can move Mike Aviles to 2B, and I'd assume they'd want a top pitching prospect to replace Grienke. The Reds offered Homer Bailey for Jermaine Dye, and they've said publically they'd still like to add an OF, so I'm sure they'd covet Hart. Hart for a package centered around Bailey, which would be sent to KC along with Alcides Escobar for Greinke.

 

Sign Adum Dunn.

 

Compete for playoffs again in 2009.

 

Compete for playoffs again in 2010.

 

In 2011 worry about possible hole at SS if Brent Brewer isn't ready in 2011.

[nate82]

Melvin would have to be creative to get Grienke, but it can be done. The Royals want a SS so they can move Mike Aviles to 2B, and I'd assume they'd want a top pitching prospect to replace Grienke. The Reds offered Homer Bailey for Jermaine Dye, and they've said publically they'd still like to add an OF, so I'm sure they'd covet Hart. Hart for a package centered around Bailey, which would be sent to KC along with Alcides Escobar for Greinke.

I agree with signing Dunn and trying to trade for Greinke. I just don't see the Brewers trading Hart to the Reds and I don't see the Reds trading Bailey to the Brewers so they can get Greinke. That doesn't really make much sense on the Reds part.

 

I believe the Brewers could get Bedard from the Mariners for Hart, Brewer/Gillespie and Periard/Braddock. That might be to high for Bedard though considering he may not be healthy. Hart and Braddock might be enough for Seattle.

 

Signing Dunn does open up a lot of options for Melvin down the road though. Melvin could trade Prince after this year and he won't have to worry about finding a replacement for Prince as quickly. A 3/$27-30 contract would be a really good price for Dunn.

[Never Outhustled]

I just don't see the Brewers trading Hart to the Reds and I don't see the Reds trading Bailey to the Brewers so they can get Greinke. That doesn't really make much sense on the Reds part.

If the Reds offered Bailey for Dye, which they did do, why wouldn't they do Bailey (and more) for Hart. That would be a much smarter deal for them, as hart fills RF for them for 3 years, Dye would have been a 1 year solution. I've never been high on Bailey, but I'm sure a bunch of teams still are. He be a good trade chip. Him and Escobar bundled together should get the kind of pitcher we covet.

[nate82]

If the Reds offered Bailey for Dye, which they did do, why wouldn't they do Bailey (and more) for Hart. That would be a much smarter deal for them, as hart fills RF for them for 3 years, Dye would have been a 1 year solution. I've never been high on Bailey, but I'm sure a bunch of teams still are. He be a good trade chip. Him and Escobar bundled together should get the kind of pitcher we covet.

It still doesn't really make sense for the Reds really. If the Brewers could get Greinke with a Bailey + deal why couldn't the Reds do the same? Plus Dye has more trade value than Hart does right now. With the way Hart ended the season his value in a trade plumetted. I don't see how Hart would get Bailey even if Bailey's stock has come down a bit.

 

Then you have the problem with the Royals not really wanting to trade Greinke. That is the real problem right there and I believe trading both Escobar and Bailey would be overpaying for Greinke. I would rather go after Bedard and use him as the #2 in the pitching staff and go from there. A rotation of Gallardo, Bedard, Parra, Bush, and Suppan would win as many games as a rotation of Greinke, Gallardo, Parra, Bush, and Suppan. Plus the Brewers wouldn't have to give up so much to get Bedard. I would rather have Bedard for 1 year and have the future flexibility to trade either Fielder or Hardy/Escobar for some young stud pitching.

[Never Outhustled]

It still doesn't really make sense for the Reds really. If the Brewers could get Greinke with a Bailey + deal why couldn't the Reds do the same?

What expendable top 25 prospect do the Reds have?

 

Plus Dye has more trade value than Hart does right now. With the way Hart ended the season his value in a trade plumetted.

I have never believed that teams just look up a players most recent stats and determine his trade value based on that. Teams do a projection of a player, based on his career work and scout evaluations. Hart's cold streak to end the season has little effect on his value.

 

As for Bedard, I'd be interested if he was healthy, but I don't think he is.

[brewmann04]

go for Abreu he give you 20 hr and 20 Sb