MLB.com's Top 50 prospects: Jeffress #44, Gamel #23, Escobar #8; John Sickels' list now online

[Mass Haas]

Sickels' list is out -- Escobar really needs the 1/2 grade bump up, and like we learned over time, it's Mat with one "t", John.

 

Taylor Green at 14?

 

Anyway, always fun to see perspectives from outside Brewer fandom...

[homer]

14) Taylor Green, 3B, Grade C+: Solid hitter, but perhaps not enough pop to play third in the long run.

 

Wasn't he on pace for 20 HRs in the FSL before he got hurt?

[Fear The Chorizo]

"But I see no special jumps to his progress that merits believing that he won't struggle as a 22 year old in his first season in AAA especially given his lack of plate discipline and power. I see no reason to believe he can outperform Hardy next year. "

 

Since J.J. Hardy has been playing everyday in the majors for several seasons, and since only a minute percentage of prospects even sniff AAA at 22, that's not exactly a bold statement. Using statistical analysis to project major leaguers is fine, but in Escobar's case it doesn't make sense to me when the numbers used are from developmental seasons when he was basically learning how to hit and started well behind the curve offensively. When basically every scout echoes the sentiment that he's improving, and that all he needs is more time to develop offensively and grow into his frame, I could care less about what he did as a 19 year old in high A ball.

 

I don't think Hardy should be traded this offseason to make room for Escobar in Milwaukee because that would definitely be rushing Escobar, but I think there's a good chance of a trade/position change for J.J. by opening day 2010. Escobar won't ever be Braun offensively, but considering his defensive value he doesn't have to in order to be considered a big-time prospect.

[jjfanec]

14) Taylor Green, 3B, Grade C+: Solid hitter, but perhaps not enough pop to play third in the long run.

 

Wasn't he on pace for 20 HRs in the FSL before he got hurt?

He was 7th in league in OPS and was about the same in home runs so I do not understand why power is a question.

[sveumrules]

seems like green's flying under the radar a little bit. probably because he was drafted late and hasn't done anything above a+. when he has a gamelesque season at huntsville next year i think some of the "experts" will be all over him.

[endaround]

"But I see no special jumps to his progress that merits believing that he won't struggle as a 22 year old in his first season in AAA especially given his lack of plate discipline and power. I see no reason to believe he can outperform Hardy next year. "

 

Since J.J. Hardy has been playing everyday in the majors for several seasons, and since only a minute percentage of prospects even sniff AAA at 22, that's not exactly a bold statement. Using statistical analysis to project major leaguers is fine, but in Escobar's case it doesn't make sense to me when the numbers used are from developmental seasons when he was basically learning how to hit and started well behind the curve offensively. When basically every scout echoes the sentiment that he's improving, and that all he needs is more time to develop offensively and grow into his frame, I could care less about what he did as a 19 year old in high A ball.

 

I don't think Hardy should be traded this offseason to make room for Escobar in Milwaukee because that would definitely be rushing Escobar, but I think there's a good chance of a trade/position change for J.J. by opening day 2010. Escobar won't ever be Braun offensively, but considering his defensive value he doesn't have to in order to be considered a big-time prospect.

 

That was my entire point. Well that and the fact people don't seem to realize that Hardy right now looks to be an $18m a year value for $3m.

[TheCrew07]

You keep treating this like we're discussing Hardy vs Escobar, when that isn't the case. It would possibly be Escobar + a pitcher vs Hardy, or Gamel/whomever + a pitcher vs Fielder. Runs prevented are just as valuable as runs created, and we have many internal options available in the coming years to help the offense, but we have a serious lack of quality starting pitching in the upper levels of the minors. My primary concern isn't the 2009 Brewers, my primary concern is a building a young roster that extends the competitive window as far as possible. I prefer an organizational view, the Brewers are thin on top notch starting pitching and have quite a bit of hitting, so it makes sense to move one for the other. To acquire a young #2 type pitcher it's going to cost a player of Fielder or Hardy's caliber as we have to give value to get value.

 

I haven't seen anyone say that Escobar should be the opening day SS next year as it would start his clock earlier than many of us would like, but if Hardy will not change positions and sign long term, then the only way he's part of the solution is if he's flipped for another quality player. If Hardy is flipped, then Escobar would have to play, it's that simple. Escobar isn't pushing Hardy out, Hardy would be pushing himself out the door if he's inflexible. If Hardy wants to play SS and get his payday, well I just don't see that happening with the Brewers. It doesn't make sense for them to commit 14/15 million per to a SS when they have a capable replacement. I have no interest in watching both Fielder and Hardy walk in FA for compensation picks, I'd rather have young studs to replace their value than take a chance on draft picks. Realistically how many big contracts will the Brewers be able to carry? It would seem to me that they'll need to have a couple of young cheap players breaking in just about every year to make the financial situation work.

 

On the offensive side of things we have Gamel, Green, Salome/Lucroy that could help plug holes in the next 2 years. If they all play on the IF for example I think Green would be an upgrade over Weeks offensively, Gamel over this year's 3B, Salome/Lucroy would be a huge upgrade over Kendell. The only place Gamel wouldn't be an upgrade offensively is 1B, but even there if he can scoop a ball his ultimate value is greater than that of Fielder. From an organizational standpoint it's not so much about player vs player, as it is possible roster vs possible roster. How do they fit all the parts together to make the best possible team? I don't think it's a stretch to think the Brewers could be a better team without Hardy or Fielder, though if Melvin misses on the trade the team could be much worse, but that's why he makes the big bucks, to make those decisions. I guess in the end I'm all about flexibility and a more long term view of the franchise than I am about 2009, or replacing offensive production immediately.

[twobrewers]

I really wanted Josh Butler to be a prospect.

He went from what, the 13th on the Rays, to not even the top 35 for the Brewers?

[TheCrew07]

That Gross deal looks pretty crappy in hindsight.

[piccione88]

Why all the love for Peralta? I seriously want to know, I have never seen him pitch, I know he throws hard, and is young but that is all I know. I imagine there is something else there for him to be ranked above Green who not many seem to like outside of wisconsin, Aguilar, and Fredrickson.

[Mass Haas]

Why all the love for Peralta? I seriously want to know, I have never seen him pitch, I know he throws hard, and is young but that is all I know. I imagine there is something else there for him to be ranked above Green who not many seem to like outside of wisconsin, Aguilar, and Fredrickson.

From Bernie's Crew's Interview with Helena Play-by-Play Man Steve Wendt:

 

BC: Wily Peralta spent quite a bit of time with Helena this season, but has recently been called up to West Virginia. His stats certainly make the call-up seem deserved. Was it? What pitches are in Wily's arsenal?

SW: Wily's promotion for me was certainly well-deserved. For my money, he was the best pitcher in the league. His stuff is filthy and he has a demeanor on the mound that can be down right scary for opponents. He has a look about him that he couldn't care less if the hitter lives or dies, as long as he makes an out first. He has a fastball that was sitting at 97 with command. He also featured a jelly-legging slider that was nearly unhittable at this level. He throws a change too, but didn't throw it too much. If you are talking about a promotion, this is a guy that I would throw at a higher or maybe the highest level in the spring and see where the chips fall.

[NastyTwig]

14) Taylor Green, 3B, Grade C+: Solid hitter, but perhaps not enough pop to play third in the long run.

Take a look at the FSL's HR leaders (he was tied for 5th I think), everyone above Taylor was either 24+ years old, or had an OBP less than .300.

 

Taylor is going to be a top prospect very, very soon wether these tools-first guys like it or not.

 

Also, check out Alcides' numbers coming up through the minors compared to Hanley Ramirez. Nearly identical across the board (Hanley walked a tiny bit more, Alcides had a higher average).

[logan82]

Escobar has walked almost as much in half again as many PA. Ramirez walked once every 13.9 PA and Escobar once every 21.5PA.

 

That Gross deal looks pretty crappy in hindsight.

 

There were many including myself who never liked that deal. All we heard last off season is how we needed a left handed bat. Most of the second half in 2008 we kept hearing how we need a left handed bat. Now this off season we hear that it would be nice to find a left handed bat. He isn't a starter, but would have been a nice part time outfielder and just happens to bat from the left side.

[colbyjack]

I'm not a huge fan of over-analyzing minor league players stats while using them against them to determine just how good they can be. Escobar has been over-analyzed arguably more than any prospect not named Michael Brantley, and yet he has continued to improve over the years. One thing that is never brought up when his stats are mentioned is his pure, natural talent. That alone is going to be the determining factor into whether or not he reaches his considerable ceiling at the big-league level.

 

And I can almost guarantee that Escobar will sit atop BA's Brewers top prospect list.

[NastyTwig]

Also it has yet to be mentioned that Alcides is only about 170 lbs tops. If/When he fills out, so will his power numbers. That's pretty much what happened to Hanley Ramirez who was also a stick figure before hitting the bigs.

[twobrewers]

Also it has yet to be mentioned that Alcides is only about 170 lbs tops. If/When he fills out, so will his power numbers. That's pretty much what happened to Hanley Ramirez who was also a stick figure before hitting the bigs.

Given your screen name - your post seems very apt.

[Rob]

An interview with Lorenzo Cain, from BP. I don't believe you have to be a suscriber to listen.

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/radio/

 

About 5 shows down.

[Mass Haas]

Sickels looks at the Padres -- Will Inman # 8, Steve Garrison among others noted....

I like Inman more than the scouts do, and yes I have seen him in person. He's got flaws and I might go down to C+, but there is just something about him that makes me think he will continue to surprise people. We will see if that remains true in the PCL. -- Sickels