Sabathia, Sheets, Shouse offered arbitration: Latest- All three decline

[And That]

TH has a blog on the subject here.

 

Sabathia is no-brainer for offering arbitration. The only way he wouldn't be offered is if he signs with the Brewers before 11 pm on Monday.

 

Sheets is likely to be offered arbitration if the Brewers are confident his injury would not threaten his '09 status.

 

Shouse has been looking for a two year deal, though the market for relievers is a bit inundated. If he wants that two year deal, he's going to have a little bit for it. The Brewers only want to sign him to a one year deal. If he accepts arbitration, the money he gets would not be a budget-breaker for the Brewers, so I'll bet they offer it to him. I think they might be happy to pick up a pick for him and just go with Stetter and Swindle or whomever.

 

Gagne probably won't be offered arbitration, though there are a few factors working in favor of it for the Brewers. First, Scott Boras clients never (almost never?) go to arbitration if they are free agents. Second, Gagne would be paid quite a bit less than he was in '08, and may well have better results. I lean toward saying he won't be offered arby, though it might be a shrewd business decision to do it.

[joshjs]

I'll be hugely disappointed if Gagne is offered arbitration. Because, if I were him, I'd take it. All the other guys: Sure, offer it.

[Fatter than Joey]

Second, Gagne would be paid quite a bit less than he was in '08, and may well have better results.

 

I would like you to expound on this please.

[trwi7]

I don't think Gagne will. I think Sabathia, Sheets and Shouse will.

[logan82]

I personally would offer arbitration to all 4.

 

Like you said CC is a no brainier to get a multi-year contract somewhere.

 

Sheets coming back on a one year deal would be a pretty ideal situation in my opinion. I still think he will get a pretty good contract somewhere.

 

I am not sure if we want Shouse back, but getting him on a one year deal doesn't hurt much. We can always cut him in spring training if we think Stetter and Swindle are going to be better or don't want to pay the money. Yeah I know that would be a crappy thing to do.

 

The only real tough one is Gagne. My fear is he would get something around $7M+ per year. If I was more confident he would get around $4M a year I think it would be a good deal even if he did accept Arby's.

 

I think CC, Shests and Shouse get offered arbitration and they don't offer Gagne.

 

Second, Gagne would be paid quite a bit less than he was in '08, and may well have better results

 

I think there is a good chance Gagne may have better results. I am not convinced he will get paid quite a bit less though.

[sbrylski]

Second, Gagne would be paid quite a bit less than he was in '08, and may well have better results.

 

I would like you to expound on this please.

 

I think he's saying Gagne's production is likely to go up a notch next season, and his pay would go down through arbitration. Not really a reason in itself to keep or try to keep him around.

[sbrylski]

The only real tough one is Gagne. My fear is he would get something around $7M+ per year. If I was more confident he would get around $4M a year I think it would be a good deal even if he did accept Arby's.

 

He can at most receive a 20% pay decrease. So the minimum he would receive through arbitration is $8 million.

[logan82]

The only real tough one is Gagne. My fear is he would get something around $7M+ per year. If I was more confident he would get around $4M a year I think it would be a good deal even if he did accept Arby's.

 

He can at most receive a 20% pay decrease. So the minimum he would receive through arbitration is $8 million.

That is only true of players not eligible for free agency. We can offer Gagne anything we want. Link

 

The club's salary offer to a player under its control (pre-free agency players) may not be less than 80% of the player's salary and performance bonuses the previous year or less than 70% of his salary and performance bonuses from 2 years earlier. (Exception: If a player won an arbitration award the previous year increasing his salary 50% or more, the 80% requirement does not apply.) The 80% rule does not apply to free agents who are offered arbitration.

 

Link

[And That]

Second, Gagne would be paid quite a bit less than he was in '08, and may well have better results.

 

I would like you to expound on this please.

Gagne won't be paid $10 mil again if he accepted arbitration, not after his '08 campaign. As logan alluded to, the question would be how much an arbiter thinks he is worth after a mediocre (not just by Gagne's standards, by league standards) season. Say, they go to arbitration and Gagne comes up with an $8 mil number and the Brewers come up with a $5 mil number. I tend to think that the arbiter would side with the Brewers, but they may not. I believe Gagne is worth a 1 year/$5 mil deal. I don't think he's worth a 1 year/$8 mil deal. Would the Brewers be willing to risk going to arbitration and losing, even though he wouldn't sniff $10 mil again anyway? I dunno.

 

As for better results, I don't think he's great shakes but I think he's better than his results in '08. Maybe a 1.25 WHIP and a ~4.25 ERA seems plausible.

 

The question the Brewers have to answer for themselves is, if they think he'll pitch a little better and cost somewhat less, will those two sliding factors slide enough to meet in the middle so that arbitration will be worth it? And would they have a strong arbitration case for ~$5 mil? And would Gagne even accept arbitration being a Boras client?

 

I think it is a closer call than most and while I think the Brewers won't risk it, I think maybe they should.

[CheezWizHed]

So here's to Brewer's offering arby, Gagne turning it down, Brewers sign Hoffman/Wood, Brewers get compensation pick for nothing. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[Never Outhustled]

Offering Gagne arbitration would be a fruitless cause, as you don't get compensation for players who sign minor league deals. Soon to be 33 year old middle relievers, with no velocity, coming off a season with a 5.44 ERA, with a long history of injury, don't get major league deals.

 

Offering arbitration to the other 3 is an easy decision, as we would be tinkled pink to get any of them back on a 1 year deal.

[RyDogg66]

Hee Hee, you said tinkled pink.

[RobertR]

I don't see the upside to offering Gagne arbitration. You're not going to get draft picks out of it, as no team is going to sign Gagne to a fair market offer and give up a pick for someone with as many questions as Gagne has. And you already probably have to commit a fair share of money early in the free agency process when that salary flexibility may be better used later on. I'll take the flexibility since there are other areas that the team needs to address first, third base and starting pitching being the big ones.

 

Unless Sheets is hurt, you offer him arby. No question. It's overthinking things if you do otherwise. There's no real downside to a healthy Ben Sheets on a one year deal.

 

Shouse I'm iffy on. He's probably looking at $3 to $4 million on a one year deal. That's a little more than he's worth, IMO, butI think some team, probably the Mets, would be willing to go 2 years on him to shore up a suspect bullpen.

 

Sabathia, of course, is a no brainer. 5 years is a starting point.

 

Robert

[RyDogg66]

For the record, if Gagne is a Type B Free Agent no team will have to give up a draft pick. I believe the rule change was that a team that loses a type B free agent only gets a comp pick between rounds 2 and 3 and the signing team no longer loses a 2nd round pick.

[JohnBriggs12]

Gagne did not allow a run in his last 11 appearences including postseason. Some of those were in tense, high pressure games. We're not talking about a Turnbow here that wilted as the pressure mounted. They have openings in the pen. Gagne was still hitting 93 regularly and I don't think his age or velocity is a factor when we're talking about a one year deal. He ran into problems last season when Yost overused him and he surrendered the long ball.

 

I like having his experience out there, even if he's not quite what he was. If Torres were back then no, but given his retirement and the need to fill some spots out there, I'd offer him.

 

I'd let Shouse go. Why overpay even a nickel for him when he's so easily replaceable by minimum salary guys?

[Fatter than Joey]

Thanks Toby... I wanted to see your reasoning here....

 

And would Gagne even accept arbitration being a Boras client?

 

Typically Boras's clients do not have the extreme injury or extreme success/failure history that Gagne has. I would hate to try and outbluff Boras based on what he has done in the past with other clients.

 

I believe Gagne is worth a 1 year/$5 mil deal.

 

I don't. I have a hard time believing he could get anything more than a 1yr 2M contract from any other team. I certainly would concede he may be better in 09 than he was in 08, but I really don't think there will be much demand for his services at $5M.

 

Say, they go to arbitration and Gagne comes up with an $8 mil number and the Brewers come up with a $5 mil number.

 

I can't think of a time where a arbiter gave a player a 50% paycut. I tend to think that if an arbiter would have to choose between 8 and 5 -- he would choose 8.

 

I think that the biggest risk, is monkeying around, trying to get an Arby's pick, and then losing out on a guy like Fuentes, because we have $8M tied up in Gagne.

 

I certainly see the reasoning in your post though Toby, and I agree that Gagne is the most interesting Arby's item on the menu.

[Oldcity]

I agree that I'd offer arbitration to all four. Offer Gagne 1 year/5 mil and I'm pretty sure he'd accept it. I think that would be a smart decision. He was a good pitcher in the second half, and the Brewers will need relievers. There's no way he'll be settling for a minor league deal.

 

Also I would much rather offer Gagne arbitration than sign Fuentes. He'll probably get a four-year deal, which is something I really want no part of for a reliever.

[Fatter than Joey]

I'd let Shouse go. Why overpay even a nickel for him when he's so easily replaceable by minimum salary guys?

 

Agreed. He is 40 years old. We should be able to scrape up a LOOGY somewhere, like when we got him.

[And That]

I think that the biggest risk, is monkeying around, trying to get an Arby's pick, and then losing out on a guy like Fuentes, because we have $8M tied up in Gagne.

It's not even really a risk at $8 mil because the Brewers could just release him before the start of the season and not owe him anything. The player's union might not be too happy, but that's for them to worry about.

 

Again, I don't think they'll do it because it's too risky... due to the economy, the Brewers are probably extra conscious of not wanting to slog out dough to players that won't help them.

 

I do think he'll land a major league deal some place because he won't cost any team a pick.

[mothershipconnection]

It's an absolute lock that Gagne gets a major league contract - we rolled the dice with $10MM last year and someone will certainly do the same with a smaller figure. The question is how much the contract will be for and if he's going to gamble on getting more elsewhere than he'd get with the Brewers. This probably won't happen, and I'd jump at arbitration if I were in his shoes.

[fondybrewfan]

I don't think their is any doubt that Gagne will get offered a major league contract somewhere. Heck we gave him $10M after he stunk up the joint in Boston. He is coming off a pretty darn good 2nd half with a 3.52 ERA, WHIP of 1.0, and a BAA of .205. If he wouldn't have given up so many darn HR's last year we would probably be talking about bringing him back.

[RobertR]

I don't think there's a doubt that Gagne will get offered a major league deal. I just doubt that any other offer will be as high as what he's likely to get in arbitration. And that extra money may be better spent elsewhere.

 

Robert

[RyDogg66]

All of this for a second round sandwich pick? No thanks, unless the Brewers truly want (or wouldnt mind having) him back, which I cannot believe they do.

[yoyo49]

Losing a Type B free agent nets the former team a sandwich pick (compensatory pick) between rounds 1 and 2 (after the Type A compensatory picks)

[Oldcity]

Yeah it's certainly a valuable pick. And I don't get why it should just be assumed that the Brewers should not want Gagne back. At the right price and for one year (that's the key) he has good value. Again, he was a good pitcher in the second half.