Melvin's "Christmas List"

[Postseason2006]

I guess I never understood the fascination with Mike Cameron in this forum. He's been an inconsistent hitter come the end of the year regardless of how you look at those number especially the postseason.

[PeaveyFury]

He's been an inconsistent hitter come the end of the year

 

As were Fielder, Braun, Weeks, and Hart. If inconsistency is the root of your problem with Cameron, you should have problems with most of the other Brewers' players as well.

[ILuvDaBush]

The most "consistent" hitter in the last fifty years...was a free agent all year. Perhaps Bonds can be on Melvin's shopping list. Move Corey to center and Braun to right...and pick up a bunch of HIGH strike-out pitchers, or perhaps just go straight piggy-backing to guarantee that the pitcher can go "max-effort." But seriously...the most consistent hitter on the Brewers would probably be Ben Sheets. He CONSISTENTLY didn't get on-base.

[edod]

Bias implies an inability to be objective.

All information has to be interpreted by the human mind. And all human beings create bias inherently by interpreting information through their particular lens created from their unique and shared experiences. It is not possible for one to be completely objective. English 101: acknowledging your own bias and point-of-view when interpreting outside information leads to a much more fair and even handed representation of information in the spirit of objectivity.

 

I suppose this is also a point of view, but really, being subjective does not equate to being wrong. If so, brewerfan.net would not need a forum.

[Invader3K]

Can we avoid yet another circular grammatical semantics argument, please?

 

Anyway, I am getting antsy, as I'm sure the fans of about 29 other teams are. Things should start falling together in the next couple of weeks, and I am excited to see what happens.

[hauser42]

Signing Sheets to any kind of deal is going to be like getting a lump of coal in our stocking.

 

Cameron needs to kept around as there will be no better defensive OFer out there for the Brewers to get. His bat over the course of the season is fine. He will go hot or cold like the rest of the players in MLB.

 

I would say a solid #1 or #2 SP needs to be signed to help out Yo and Parra.

 

C-Vill and Hall could be traded in my mind for another 3B or some pitching help. C-Vill is always goint to be a guy in the pen and Hall has reached his peak and time to move on.

[paul253]

Signing Sheets to any kind of deal is going to be like getting a lump of coal in our stocking.

 

I dont think thats true. It would be a huge risk, but at this point what are the better alternatives? There arent any #1 or #2 guys that we are going to be able to sign, and Sheets is a #1 when he's healthly, which is not very often. But the lack of pitchers in the farm system and the abundance of 4s and 5s on the roster does not spell good things next season for Milwaukee.

 

C-Vill and Hall could be traded in my mind for another 3B or some pitching help. C-Vill is always goint to be a guy in the pen and Hall has reached his peak and time to move on.

 

The problem with trading C-Vill is that you are making a weak bullpen even weaker, and you arent exactly going to get an allstar 3rd basemen for those two. Everyone keeps saying all we have to do is upgrade third base and we'll be fine, but nobody says how we can significantly upgrade it. I was ripped for saying we should have considered alternatives to Cameron, but at least I made some suggestions (Edmonds, Abreu, Dejesus, etc) that would have been offensive upgrades in areas we need offensive upgrades. So far it seems as though the best solution offered to 3rd base is either Teahen or a Hall/Branyon platoon. I'm sorry, but I'm not entirely excited over those options, and the free agent market doenst seem to have any solutions either. Unless Melvin gets extremely creative, I think its going to be a long year next season.

[logan82]

C-Vill and Hall could be traded in my mind for another 3B or some pitching help. C-Vill is always goint to be a guy in the pen and Hall has reached his peak and time to move on.

 

Carlos Villanueva is a good guy to have around even if he never starts again. You need a few guys like him to stabilize the pen. Unless we can get a full time 3B our best option still looks to be Hall/Branyan. A Hall/Branyan platoon minimizes the hitting weakness of each player. Teahen is Hall hitting from the left side without the dominance of opposite handed pitching. I don't see anything to indicate Teahen would be much better defensively than Hall/Branyan.

 

vs LHP

Hall .278/.355/.493/.847

Teahen .249/.308/.394/.702

 

vs RHP

Hall .249/.300/.441/.741

Teahen .276/.342/.433/.775

[Mr Southpaw]

Everyone keeps saying all we have to do is upgrade third base and we'll be fine, but nobody says how we can significantly upgrade it.

 

How about Eric Hinske at 3rd with Hall? He can play the outfield and 1st base, hits for a better aveage than Branyon and you still get about the same power. He is not a long term answer, but a year or two would allow Gamel/Green to reach the majors. Plus he is from Wisconsin.

 

If I werw GM, I would offer...

 

Edmunds 1 year $7 mil

Hinske 2 years $5.5-6 mil

Hoffman 1 year $6 mil

Sheets 2 years 20 mill plus incentives

 

and trade

 

Cameron and Suppan for Cabrera and a young pitcher (McAlister/Melancon)

 

Starting Lineup

 

vs Righties vs Lefties

 

Cabrera Cabrera

Hardy Hardy

Braun Braun

Fielder Fielder

Edmunds Hart

Hinske Hall

Weeks Weeks

Kendall Kendall

Pitcher Pitcher

 

Bench Rivera, Edmunds/Hart, Hinske/Hall, plus one more

 

Starters Relievers

 

Sheets Hoffman

Gallardo Villy

Parra Riske

Bush Coffey

McClung Stetter L

Swindle L

Dillard

Pena/DeFelice

 

Rounding off, came to less than $80 mil for next year, with a balanced lineup and a another young stud like pitcher at AA with Jefferies. It gives us a better than average team with tons of flexibility now and into the future.

 

 

 

 

.

 

[twobrewers]

Isn't Hinske a clubhouse cancer?

 

(Maybe I am thinking of someone else though)

[PeaveyFury]

Isn't Hinske a clubhouse cancer?

 

(Maybe I am thinking of someone else though)

 

You might be thinking of Shea Hillenbrand, who was also a 3B for the Jays when Hinske was there and is largely regarded as a jerk.

[logan82]

Hinske is an interesting alternative to Branyan. I wouldn't mind Edmonds as our 4th outfielder, but I don't like to go much over $4M for a bench player. Still don't think Cabrera as a replacement for Cameron is a good idea.

[twobrewers]

Yep - that is it Peavy.

 

Thanks, I always got those two confused.

[joepepsi]

Isn't Hinske a clubhouse cancer?

 

(Maybe I am thinking of someone else though)

 

You might be thinking of Shea Hillenbrand, who was also a 3B for the Jays when Hinske was there and is largely regarded as a jerk.

I always had those guys mixed up too. Until Hillebrand got into a fight with the Blue Jays manager and was traded. After that I was able to keep 'em straight.

[BADGERJOBOB]

He will be declining by the end of the contract and he will take up more than 25% of the salary. These deals are not about the first 2 or 3 years, but the last 3 years. The shorter the deal, the better for the Brewers, as they mitigate their risk significantly if they can shorten the contract length.

Well ideally it would be great if we could get an ace on a string of smaller contracts that would be easy to get rid of if they don't pan out but thats not reality. We need short term stability in our rotation and failing to get a high end pitcher that will be around 2-3 years would result in failure. I personally would rather spend the extra money on CC than trade more high end prospects to obtain someone else at this point in time.

 

I also think your thinking on the salary issue is a bit flawed as well. Who is to say that in year 4, 5 or 6, CC's salary will be more than 25% of the payroll. Who is to say that the Brewers don't continue to up their payroll. Who is to say that we don't trade CC after year 2, 3 or 4 after Yo and Parra prove that they are legit 1 and 2 starters. If we want to compete for a division title we need to make moves that are on par with the Cubs, Cards, Astros and Reds. Due to the nature of their spending that does involve risk.

 

We have tasted success this year and the worst thing possible in the eyes of most fans is to take a huge step back this year. Not getting an established ace would accomplish just that. Unforunately it looks like the price will be more than we can afford but I would gladly spend the $20-22 million a year over 6 years to get this done. If we don't get CC we are not going to be able to get another ace type pitcher (without crippling other positions or our farm system) that will allow us to compete against the teams in our division. It is a very scary thought when we are throwing out Yo/Parra/Bush/Villanueva/McClung/Suppan against the potential of Z/Harden/Peavy/Dempster/Lilly

[Invader3K]

Yeah, I agree with much of what BADGERJOBOB wrote. That projected rotation (as of right now), would not instill any real confidence. That said, I think anyone who thinks we're going into '09 with Gallardo as our #1 will probably be wrong. The Brewers have money, and they will get someone. I just hope it's a Sabathia/Sheets/Peavy type caliber of a pitcher, and not someone like an AJ Burnett type. I really hope some small miracle can occur that keeps Sabathia here, but I doubt it will happen. I just hope Melvin gets some sort of "yes or no" from CC's camp, very soon.

 

You are also right that now is not the time to step back. Going back to being a .500-ish team after making the post-season for the first time in 26 years would be a disaster, in the eyes of the fans.

 

I don't envy Doug Melvin's job right now, that's for sure.

[logan82]

I think the fans would see it as a disaster to take a step back, but that is kind of hard not to do when you have limited means. The best thing for the long term future of the Brewers might be one bad year in 2009 to stock up on talent for the future.

[Invader3K]

I disagree. After '09, the Brewers will need to seriously consider trading Fielder, and possibly Hardy as well. Hart will be closer to being a free agent as well. They'll need a new catcher, and who knows if Salome will pan out. Then there will be further pitching problems.

 

This was supposed to be part of that "window" we were promised a few years back. Stepping back next year would be a huge mistake, IMHO.

[BADGERJOBOB]

Unfortunately the way this off-season is shaping up, taking a step back will probably happen in all likelihood so trading Prince this year, assuming you could get a lot of value in return might be our best option provided that Gamel is the real deal and could make the transition to first base. I have doubts about Gamel at third. We have a temporary fill-in at first in Nelson for this year so the key would be what can we get for Prince. We would need a legit starter at either centerfield or thirdbase and a good young arm that we can control for a few years. The key is to not fall off the map this year and finish in the bottom half of the central.

[logan82]

Invader3K wrote:

This was supposed to be part of that "window" we were promised a few years back. Stepping back next year would be a huge mistake, IMHO.

If we don't get either CC or Sheets to come back, I think we can still field a pretty good team without adding a good starting pitcher. That relies on Hart, Braun, Weeks, and Fielder all improving on their 2008 season. Not asking much i my opinion. However, we are going to have to either consider trading or losing Fielder in the near future. Trading him this off season and grooming Gamel to play 1B in 2010 might make us better in 2010 than keeping Fielder. I this scenario we would have to take a small step back in 2009. My preference would be to offer JJ 4-5 year deal and if he turns it down trade him. Stepping back in 2009 is only a mistake if you don't do something that will improve the team long term.

[Invader3K]

Unfortunately the way this off-season is shaping up,

I'm not sure what you mean by this. Other than probably not retaining Sabathia, and Torres deciding to retire, it doesn't look like we're losing anyone major. The way things seem to be going, we could very well have Sheets for one more year, if he accepts arbitration. The only thing that has happened this off-season so far is, well, nothing has happened so far.

[Crewin06]

However, we are going to have to either consider trading or losing Fielder in the near future. Trading him this off season and grooming Gamel to play 1B in 2010 might make us better in 2010 than keeping Fielder.

If the Brewers want they can hold on to Fielder for 3 more seasons then get 2 top round picks for him when he leaves. 3 more seasons is an eternity in terms of a baseball fan's perspective.

 

The only way I trade Prince is if the Brewers get an unbelievable package of young pitching and players or a young stud pitcher like Lincecum. Seeing how that is not going to happen after the season he just completed I would hold on to him. watch him hit another 50 homers and see if his trade value increases next season.

 

Although after Prince hits 50 the fan sentiment will change from the Brewers need to trade Fielder to the Brewers are to cheap to keep Fielder.

 

It was amazing to gage fan's opinions for Sheets throughout the year.

 

As for seeing if Gamel can hack first base. I hope the Brewers are done with this model of wasting players arbitration years hoping young players can hack it instead of letting them get the propper training in the minors and bringing them up after the player shows he is ready.

 

We'll see how it goes but I think I will flip out if Escobar, Gamel, Jeffress, or Salome break camp with the Brewers.

[logan82]

Unfortunately Fielder negates much of his value with his terrible defense at 1B. There is a good chance we could be better overall with a decent defensive 1B even if he won't put up the same offensive numbers as Prince. If we can get a good package for Fielder, it would make up better in the long run, but hurt us next year because I don't feel we have a decent replacement at 1B ready right now.

 

As for seeing if Gamel can hack first base. I hope the Brewers are done with this model of wasting players arbitration years hoping young players can hack it instead of letting them get the propper training in the minors and bringing them up after the player shows he is ready.

 

I guess I should have been clearer that by "grooming Gamel to play 1B in 2010" I meat in AAA.

[sheetskout]

"The only way I trade Prince is if the Brewers get an unbelievable package of young pitching and players or a young stud pitcher like Lincecum. Seeing how that is not going to happen after the season he just completed I would hold on to him. watch him hit another 50 homers and see if his trade value increases next season. "

 

"Although after Prince hits 50 the fan sentiment will change from the Brewers need to trade Fielder to the Brewers are to cheap to keep Fielder. "

 

"We'll see how it goes but I think I will flip out if Escobar, Gamel, Jeffress, or Salome break camp with the Brewers. "

True.

True.

True.

[fleehaw]

Although after Prince hits 50 the fan sentiment will change from the Brewers need to trade Fielder to the Brewers are to cheap to keep Fielder.

Fielder needs to put up impressive offensive numbers to negate how terrible he is on defense. The argument can be made that an average offensive and defensive 1B might make the Brewers a better team.

 

The casual fan might believe the Brewers are TOO cheap to keep Fielder, but I think the more knowledgeable fans will understand. Fielder is a very good offensive talent, but given his skillset and body type; he's destined to be a DH. He isn't worth the risk to a national league small market team to sign to a bloated free agent contract.

 

I'll echo the sentiment that it probably makes the most sense dealing Fielder after the '09 season. His value will be at it's highest this offseason and next. The value he'll bring back in a trade should heavily outweigh the 2 comp picks if they choose to keep him through '11. Like I mentioned above, if the right deal takes shape, I wouldn't think twice about dealing him now.