Melvin's "Christmas List"

[fleehaw]

The Hardy, Villy trade to Frisco proposal was in an effort to beef up our rotation (Cain), balance the top of our lineup (Roberts), and add a really nice young arm to the bullpen (Hinshaw). Roberts is intriguing to me as he's a lefty with a decent career OBP and very good speed who's offensive stats could've been weighed down by playing in pitchers parks (SD & SF) the last 5/6 years.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cain would definitely upgrade the rotation. And if by balance the lineup, you mean make much worse, then adding Roberts would accomplish that. Roberts career OPS is 708. Weeks, who many feel has underachieved thus far, has a career OPS of 758, both have OBP around .345. Roberts has not played more than 130 games in any season. In addition, Roberts best years were in San Diego and he's in his upper thirties, so I can't fathom him putting up better numbers than his career averages, and that might even be a stretch. In the end, subbing Escobar for Hardy, and Roberts for Cameron, gives you a net loss in OPS of roughly 200. Admittedly, I don't know anything about Hinshaw, but I'd rather stick with the good, young arm that I know in Villanueva.

[twobrewers]

I would do 3/36 for Sheets ALL DAY.

In my opinion, when healthy - Sheets is as good as Sabathia. (Sabathia was just rediculous down the stretch this year and I think it foolish to expect him to repeat that performance)

 

That said, signing Sheets at that price means he only has to he healthy 1/2 of the time to earn his contract. And the worst case scenario (only 3 years) is much easier to take than Sabathia.

 

However, I think Sheets is done with Milwaukee.

[Bernie Crewer]

Hi Fleehaw, my case for Roberts over Cameron:

 

I'll grant you Roberts will never outslug Cameron. However, when I drilled into Dave's previous two years worth of stats with the Giants in a pitchers park some things really stood out to me. He got off to a very slow start in '07 and finally went on the DL in May after having left elbow surgery. From 7/1/07 on he hit for a .296 ave. with a .367 obp and stole 31/36 bases that year. The Giants then signed Rowand for '08 and Dave did not play much at all until Rowand got hurt and Dave put up a .369 obp after the break. His '06 year (.293 ave, .360 obp w/ 49 steals) in San Diego (another pitchers park) was very good and the reason he got a nice 3 year deal. He's also only signed for one more year at $6.5m which would free up $3.5m if we went with him over Cam and we'd not be stuck long term.

 

My largest argument though is it potentially gives us the left handed, center fielding lead off hitter I think we so desparetly need. You could probably platoon him with Kapler if he's healthy and wants to return? I actually think Cameron is a really nice player, but he's miscast on this team imo due to the lack of a table setter at 2b or SS that would allow him to slide down in the order where he more naturally fits. Not to mention the plethora of free swinging righties that we are already blessed with. I'm not ready to punt Weeks, but the experiment leading off has to end and I just do not see any other internal candidates up for the job. I'm just trying to mine a DM nugget and one he was linked to back in the '06/'07 offseason as well.

 

Escobar vs Hardy is fine. The more I think about this the more I want just Dave Roberts and we'd probably not need to give up much to get him with Rowand there. A lineup of:

 

Roberts CF

Hart RF

Braun LF

Prince 1b

Hardy SS

Weeks 2b

Branyon/Hall 3b

Kendal C

 

You could keep Escobar on the big league team and have him spell Weeks some, and a bunch if he's struggling and also JJ once in awhile. Resign Ben Sheets (asap!), get a couple of bullpen pieces and I think we have a nice team again capable of making a run. Instead of trading for Cain maybe we coax a Brad Penny or something as a FA?

[logan82]

I actually think Cameron is a really nice player, but he's miscast on this team imo due to the lack of a table setter at 2b or SS that would allow him to slide down in the order where he more naturally fits.

 

Cameron was miscast by the interim manager as a leadoff hitter. He should probably hit 2, 6 or 5 in our lineup depending on where you rank him as a hitter compared to Hart and Hardy.(ignoring my opinions on optimizing a lineup and going with a traditional lineup)

 

Career lines

Roberts .266/.342/.366/.708

Cameron .250/.340/.448/.788

Weeks .245/.352/.406/.758

 

3-year splits

Roberts .272/.346/.369/.715

Cameron .251/.339/.462/.801

Weeks .247/.358/.411/.769

 

I guess I just don't see where Roberts is better than Cameron or a better option than Weeks as a lead off hitter. In fact of those 3, Weeks looks to be the best lead off option. I am not sure the stats are close enough to think that Roberts would improve enough to draw even by moving to a more pitcher friendly park.

[Ennder]

Dave Roberts is a poor mans Cameron. Same on base skills more or less, much less slugging, not any better of a base runner, worse fielder.

[Bernie Crewer]

My comparison was Roberts to Cameron. Regardless, I'd rather pay $3.5m a year less for a leadoff hitter who hits for a higher average, gets on base more, steals more bases, strikes out a ton less, but has a lower slugging percentage. I also think Cameron proved to us he's not either a leadoff prospect or a 2 hole candidate as well so at a min. you're looking at 6 or 7 in the lineup which we have plenty of candidates for already it seems. Would you really want Cameron hitting 5 protecting Prince? Prince would rarely see any good pitches imo.

 

Weeks is the best internal cadidate to leadoff, agreed but I'd like to see him moved down as I think he could flourish in the #6 or #7 spot where his power and strikeouts would translate better. If you keep Cameron, Weeks, Hardy, Hart, etc. you still have an unbalanced order of righties.

 

Again, not that Dave Roberts is perfect, but I really think it could be an improvement.

[Bernie Crewer]

Dave Roberts is a poor mans Cameron. Same on base skills more or less, much less slugging, not any better of a base runner, worse fielder.

...and hits left handed, comes at a 35% discount for one year, a higher batting average, and a third of the strikeouts and slots into the top of the lineup much better.

 

Not any better of a baserunner? how about 25 more stolen bases with a higher success rate with 560 less at bats over the last 3 years.

 

DR is just a much better fit for the crew than Mike Cameron imho.

[MNBrew]

Again, not that Dave Roberts is perfect, but I really think it could be an improvement.

BC, you make good points. And regardless of how sound, there will always be an element here that disagrees with you because the OPS bias is very strong. That's not putting down others, just noting the difference in perspective.

 

I agree with you, the Brewers need table-setters whose strengths lie in a good BA, good OBP, good contact & low Ks, speed, and the discipline to utilize those skills optimally. Lots of HRs from someone like put in the table-setter role often come at the expense of those traditional table-setter skills. Some folks on this site simply are stuck on the idea that power = better offense, perhaps because of the extent to which it boosts OPS, and therefore the lack of power = automatically lesser offensive player regardless. I also agree with you about Cameron/Roberts. He's quite productive when he hits the ball, but for the offense to balance out, something has to give and I see him as an expensive chip who well could be replaced by your traditional table-setter. . . .

 

I don't think the Brewers need MORE power. I'm not suggesting they need less power, either. It's that they need players whose skills should improve those areas in which the Brewers were most weak. And those improvements may just need to come at the expense of a little power. They have to come from somewhere.

[logan82]

A marginal increase in OBP does not outweigh the huge loss in SLG. All the other stuff is mostly irrelevant.

[Invader3K]

Dave Roberts just seems like another one of those players that is slightly above average and seems obtainable, so people on this board keep talking about acquiring him. Yeah, he's a decent player, but I certainly wouldn't get excited about him. I think I'd rather just stick with Cameron for another year.

[Brian the Automator]

Dave Roberts:

 

2005: .784 OPS

2006: .753 OPS (-31)

2007: .695 OPS (-58)

2008: .621 OPS (-74)

 

Isn't that pretty much the dictionary definition of declining with age?

[Invader3K]

Yeah, one would guess so.

 

For comparison, Mike Cameron:

 

'05: .819

'06: .837

'07: .759

'08: .809

 

A little more murky, but pretty steady overall.

 

I stand by my statement a couple posts ago...I guess I don't get the fascination that some on this board have with Dave Roberts. Just seems like another slightly above average player that seems like we could acquire, so people keep talking about him. Kind of like Coco Crisp.

[Brian the Automator]

I guess I don't get the fascination that some on this board have with Dave Roberts.

I think there's always been a particular fondness at Brewerfan for players who:

 

a) don't make a ton of money

and

b) are known for either carrying a high OBP or high SLG percentage while maintaining a low batting average, making them somewhat perceived as undervalued.

[Crewin06]

I hate the list.

 

There is no way I would trade Carlos Villanueva right now unless someone extremely overpayed.

 

Dave Roberts should be looked at as a throw in.

 

Ben Sheets should be offered Arbitration and that is it. Take the 2 high picks and move on. If Ben Accepts it then great. But I doubt that he does.

 

If the Brewers wanted a Giant outfielder, I would look at Randy Winn.

[Invader3K]

I personally feel the outfield should be left as is, unless the Brewers are able to obtain someone who would be a clear offensive upgrade (like an Adam Dunn type that would fit well in our lineup). Otherwise, the real needs that should be addressed are the inconsistent infield, and the starting rotation. Also, we need a closer, but I have no doubt Melvin will obtain someone decent to fill in that position.

[JohnBriggs12]

I guess I don't get the fascination that some on this board have with Dave Roberts.

I think there's always been a particular fondness at Brewerfan for players who:

 

a) don't make a ton of money

and

b) are known for either carrying a high OBP or high SLG percentage while maintaining a low batting average, making them somewhat perceived as undervalued.

Brian, did I miss taking this oath of allegiance to high OBP or what. It would be a pretty boring board if everyone agreed on that.

[Bernie Crewer]

I personally feel the outfield should be left as is, unless the Brewers are able to obtain someone who would be a clear offensive upgrade (like an Adam Dunn type that would fit well in our lineup). Otherwise, the real needs that should be addressed are the inconsistent infield, and the starting rotation. Also, we need a closer, but I have no doubt Melvin will obtain someone decent to fill in that position.

I guess I'm not nearly as concerned with what my leadoff hitter slugs as opposed to his average, obp, steals, and ability to make contact which I think Roberts is ahead of Cameron on all fronts except slugging and maybe a push on obp and costs $3.5m less and could probably be had very cheap. MN Brew warned me that there seems to be a strong sentiment for OPS here as that is the consistent rebuttal across the board. I think it's a very useful statistic, but more for middle of the order hitters. I want table setters with a good average, obp, speed, and making contact leading off in front of Braun & Prince as opposed to guys who have an inflated OPS due to a high slugging percentage because they run into a couple of solo HR's that boosted their OPS but strike out 100+ times. Behind them in the 5,6,7 holes, yes we should have high OPS guys...totally agree. Clearly that is where Cameron should hit, but we've already got too many righties that are very similar to him who do not make $10m per.

 

If you're going to leave the outfield as is and focus on the inconsistent infield one can only assume you'll be saying goodbye to the only decent internal candidate (Weeks) to lead off. I'm not ready to give up on him as I think he would flourish further down in the order possibly and continue to improve defensively.

 

The conundrum here is that lead off and two hole hitters generally come from your guys up the middle (2b, SS, & CF). At present we have three power guys with good OPS's in those slots who profile better as 5, 6, 7 hitters. Our catcher has a firm hold on the #8 slot and unless something really gives it just doesn't make sense to fill your top two spots with corner guys.

 

Anyhow, good debating the merits of things with you all. Hope you all have a happy Thanksgiving...and get on the Dave Roberts train http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif Kidding, and I'm not really that fascinated by him, but I think it's a move that could take care of a few things and also give DM some added flexibility.

[yoshii8]

I think the main reason I would want Cameron over Roberts would be that he is a lot better defensive centerfielder, and besides that he is much less injury prone. I can see your argument that he has a better OBP, but not by enough to make the switch.

[logan82]

Bias implies an inability to be objective.

[mothershipconnection]

MN Brew warned me that there seems to be a strong sentiment for OPS here as that is the consistent rebuttal across the board. I think it's a very useful statistic, but more for middle of the order hitters.

 

Why, because there's never anyone on base in front of them and it doesn't matter if they get beyond first base in their AB's?

 

It's not that Roberts didn't slug like a first baseman last year, it's that he didn't slug like a decent catcher. Granted, he didn't play a lot, but you can't expect too much bounce-back at 37.

 

If we needed to save $3.5MM, I'd rather roll the dice with Kapler or a reclamation project and save $9MM.

[Brawndo the Thirst Mutilat]

I think I might have to make it a minor quest of mine to rid this board of the notion that Weeks would benefit from a switch out of the leadoff spot. I suppose there are anecdotal and theoretical reasons to believe that this could be true, but there is absolutely no objective evidence that it is the case.

 

It is true that Weeks hit slightly better last season when not leading off, but his non-leadoff playing time only amounted to 32 PA. That's nothing. Single season splits are almost always too small to put any stock in, and this particular single season split is ludicrously small.

 

His career numbers tell a totally different story.

 

Leading off (1338 PA) -- 253 / 362 / 425

Any other spot in the lineup (569 PA) -- 225 / 329 / 362

 

To the extent that I believe such things matter (which isn't much), it is clear that Weeks has hit significantly better in the leadoff spot than not in the leadoff spot. I do not believe that he would benefit from hitting in a different spot in the order, and I do not find anything wrong with him as a candidate to lead off again next year. Moreover, I am dead certain that the team would be worse off if, in a desperate move to acquire a "true leadoff hitter", they were to jettison Cameron, Hart, Weeks (or any useful player) to make room for burnt-out dreck like Dave Roberts.

 

Edit: I read my post and I felt like a bit of a jerk disagreeing so vehemently with an opinion that was posted in the most polite manner humanly possible. So I'll say, as a post-script, thanks Bernie for the the kind wishes and same to you, and you make a really well thought out case for a position I find totally indefensible.

[Invader3K]

I think the general consensus around baseball is that most teams have abandoned trying to find or position a "prototypical leadoff hitter."

[MNBrew]

Bias implies an inability to be objective.

Bias means a leaning or preference, but the inability to be objective is not always implied. Please don't insinuate a value judgement that I did not make.

[fleehaw]

I want table setters with a good average, obp, speed, and making contact leading off in front of Braun & Prince as opposed to guys who have an inflated OPS due to a high slugging percentage because they run into a couple of solo HR's that boosted their OPS but strike out 100+ times.

 

If you're going to leave the outfield as is and focus on the inconsistent infield one can only assume you'll be saying goodbye to the only decent internal candidate (Weeks) to lead off. I'm not ready to give up on him as I think he would flourish further down in the order possibly and continue to improve defensively.

Roberts has a career avg of .266, and OBP of .342, and steals bases at a rate of 80%. Compare that to Cameron, who has career averages of .250, .340, and steals at a 78.5% rate. The differences between the two seem to be an advantage to Cameron, defense and slugging. Also, trends indicate that Roberts is severely declining and he's injury prone. To me, he's a last resort that reeks of desperation. Besides, CF wasn't the problem, 3B was.

 

Speaking of the infield, why would Weeks be the one that's gone? He was average last year, he's inexpensive, and he has the potential to improve. If you want to improve the infield, 3B should be the target. Granted, that's easier said than done.

 

You put your thoughts out there with specific proposals, so I'll do the same. I'd explore dealing for Mark Teahen. If the Royals are intent on moving Avriles to 2B, Hall could be an option for them. Add in some bullpen help which they're seeking, perhaps some salary relief and that may be enough. Hall, Pena/Dillard, and a few million a year for Teahen.

[MNBrew]

Hall, Pena/Dillard, and a few million a year for Teahen.

If it were Pena and not Dillard, I'd do that deal in a minute. I'm not sure Teahan's the best answer. On the other hand, I like a whole lot what this deal entails on a few levels, both for us and for KC.