Braun v. Prince. Who is more likely to replicate 2007?

[ILuvDaBush]

Braun- 451AB/91R/97RBI/34HR.......370OBP/.634SLG

Prince-573AB/109R/119RBI/50HR....395OBP/.618SLG

 

I still believe Prince could surpass 2007's banner season, with a 60-70HR outburst. Braun, on the other hand, may never eclipse 40HR. I just don't understand how people continue to want to trade Prince, or don't fully appreciate how great of a hitter Prince is. Last year, he led our team in OBP amongst regulars while Braun had a lower OBP than Weeks. I can't be the only one who believes Prince's 2007 is more replicable than Braun's '07 campaign. He put up the highest slugging percentage vs. lefties as a rookie in the history of baseball!!! Is he the greatest lefty killing rookie of all-time? Is he the greatest hitter of all-time? Prince, on the other hand, was the youngest player ever to slug 50HR's. And honestly, I EXPECTED him to hit 50 in his early-to-mid twenties. I expect him to have 55-60 before he hits FA. Braun....I'll be happy when he's stealing 20-25 bases a year, slugging close to .550. You know? Corey Hart, circa 2007.

[jjfanec]

You realize that Braun had 37 home runs this year, even after hurting his rib cage down the stretch. His power went way down after the injury or else he would have easily hit 40. Two of his three lowest home run outputs per month were the last two months. Braun had a better OPS than Prince last year, even with his injury. I do not see any reason to think Braun will slug .550. In fact, I think he will learn to become a more patient hitter, as he did the second half of last year when his OBP was .350.

In my mind there is no reason to think Prince will hit more than 50 again, especially if you look at his numbers in the minors (editted). He has never had a season close to what he did in 2007 so I think he is a guy who will be around 35-40 home runs which is where Braun will be as well. I do not think that either of them will hit their numbers from 2007 again, but I think Braun has a better chance just because he will age better and have more years at a peak level of production to match it.

[rluzinski]

In my mind there is no reason to think Prince will hit more than 50 again, especially if you look at his numbers in the numbers. He has never had a season close to what he did in 2007

 

You make him sound like a 10 year vet. He has 3 seasons under his belt and next year will be his age 25 season. The fact that he's already done it once at age 23 is a good reason to think he might do it again over the next 5+ years. He may not be a true 50 HR hitter but you don't have to be to actually hit that many.

[joepepsi]

Braun had a .942 OPS on September 2nd. He lost 54 points in the last 25 games. Prince topped out at .907 on August 13th. 3 Weeks later he had lost 70 points off his OPS, before climbing back up in the final two weeks of the season. Those seem like huge dropoffs that late in the season.

 

Normally I'd put my money on the guy who draws the walks, but Braun is almost unprojectable to me at this point. Is he the quality corner OF'er who's going to hit 30 some hr's and bat .285 every year, or was this a sophomore slump triggered in part by injury? I have no idea what kind of hitter Braun will be at 27. I think he has the better chance of winning an MVP with one of those amazing seasons like we just saw with Berkman and Pujols. I think Prince will always hit kinda like he has already......280ish average, with an oba 100 points higher, and home run totals that vary year to year but always be among the league leaders.

 

So I guess what I'm saying, Braun may be the more unprojectable hitter, but he seems to have the higher ceiling than Prince. Prince is David Ortiz. Braun is Vlad.

[jjfanec]

You make him sound like a 10 year vet. He has 3 seasons under his belt and next year will be his age 25 season. The fact that he's already done it once at age 23 is a good reason to think he might do it again over the next 5+ years. He may not be a true 50 HR hitter but you don't have to be to actually hit that many.

There was a typo on my part I meant to say "if you look at his numbers in the minors." That is about 8 seasons worth of data so it is a little more data. When I look at his numbers in the minors and his year outside 2007, I see someone who seems like he will consistently be around 35-40 home runs. It is not meant to bad mouth Prince, and you are right he could hit 50 again, and Braun could do it too, i just dont think it is likely.

[Crewin06]

Pure Numbers I think it is definitely Braun. But if you prorate those numbers factoring in the 2 months that Braun missed for AAA. I think Prince is more likely to replicate. People have to remember Prince is 6 months younger than Braun. I wouldn't be suprised if Prince hit 60 next season. I would be suprised if Braun hit 60.

[And That]

On its face, I'd be inclined to answer the question in favor of Prince Fielder due over Ryan Braun to the dramatic difference in BABIP. During the 2007 season, Prince and Ryan had BABIPs of .286 and .367 respectively. A .367 BABIP is pretty unsustainable and that so many more of the balls that he hit dropped (or went out of the park) than maybe should have occurred, makes me think that he may have already had his peak season, unless he somehow achieves that good BABIP fortune again. Meanwhile, Fielder's relatively pedestrian (and actually below average) BABIP makes me think that had he had even average luck, his monster season would have been that much better. His LD% has also been higher than Braun's.

 

With all that said, Braun seems to have the ability to make his hits "stay hit" as it were and doesn't seem rely solely on good BABIP to keep his batting average above normal. Ryan also slightly increased his walk rate (especially as the year went on) and really cut into his strike out rate, bringing it down to just about league average. I think there is reason to believe his BB and K rates will continue improving for a few more years and in the end I do believe he'll walk at or slightly above a league average rate. And as he becomes more selective at the plate, he'll get his pitches to hit, which we all know he does a very good job of hitting. Braun is also the more athletic of the two and the guy who should age much more gracefully, giving him a longer (healthier?) window to repeat his '07 performance. When I say "repeat" I mean a >1.000 OPS, which in the future may be less slightly more OBP heavy.

 

Fielder's walk rate dropped from '07 to '08 and he struck out at a higher rate than he did in his first full season in '06. He seemed to be a very mature hitter when he came up in '06, sort of like how J.J. Hardy was a very mature defensively at shortstop when he came up. The question is, will he be able to mature further at the plate or will he follow in Hardy's footsteps and just settle into a nice, maxed-out groove? I tend to think the latter case is more likely. I see Fielder as a guy who some seasons could go on three or more big hot streaks and hit 45-50 bombs and other seasons only have one or two such streaks and hit 30-40 home runs, which of course is nothing to scoff at.

 

To answer the question, I think both could easily approach and possibly surpass their '07 output in some future season or seasons. However, I think Braun is more likely to do it for two reasons:

1)Improving peripherals as opposed to Fielder's consistent peripherals (as how I see them progressing anyway), and;

2)Since he'll age better, he'll have a longer prime and therefore more chances to do it.

[Invader3K]

Fun discussion, and one we wouldn't have even been able to have four years ago without probably being laughed at by other fans. ("Who do you guys think will be able to do it again...Geoff Jenkins or Wes Helms?")

 

I would guess Ryan Braun. One, Fielder's numbers will likely be harder to duplicate (50 dingers is a lot, though I think he could do it again). Two, I think Braun will age better, based on reasons that have been discussed on this board ad nauseum.

[logan82]

Braun had ridiculous LHP OPS splits in 2007(1.480) to add to his BABIP. I think Fielder has a better chance to repeat his 2007 numbers than Braun does.

 

Splits over 1.300 OPS from 2000 on(min. 100 PA)

vs LHP

2007 1.480 Braun

2003 1.306 Bonds

2002 1.532 Bonds

2001 1.451 Sosa

2000 1.373 Thomas

2000 1.354 Glaus

 

vs RHP

2004 1.609 Bonds

2002 1.312 Bonds

2001 1.437 Bonds

So what does this prove? Not much really. Fun trivia though

 

And That

Fielder's BABIP in 2007 was not much below his career norm. He has had .297/.283/.298 as his BABIP in his three full seasons. It wouldn't be surprising to see Braun put up a BABIP over .320 on a consistent basis. Braun has had .367/.305 over his first 2 years. Matt Holliday, for example, has had .332/.351/.377/.359 over the last 4 years. Pujols .316/.292/.317/.340. The main thing that came out of the BABIP discussion before the season is the fact that some batters have shown that they can maintain a high BABIP year to year. We dont' know if Bruan is a .290 BABIP guy or a .340 BABIP guy yet. Without several years of data it is hard to tell if a guy is lucky with a high BABIP or good.

[Dragonbait]

To me... BABIP does also reflect what kind of hitter someone is..

 

Since Prince tends to be more of the "pull" hitter, those shifts take away a lot of hits.

[Never Outhustled]

I can't see Fielder ever being in the physical condition he was in during 2007, so I can't imagine he'd ever put up another season like that. Hopefully he has some life changing experience that makes him realize he's eating himself out of an opportunity to be one of the games historic players, but he hasn't shown any signs of realizing his continued weight gain is a problem.

 

I can see Braun improving his plate discipline, and I think that will allow him to have more huge seasons.

[Ennder]

To me... BABIP does also reflect what kind of hitter someone is..

 

Since Prince tends to be more of the "pull" hitter, those shifts take away a lot of hits.

 

Ground ball vs fly ball has pretty significant BABIP differences, pull vs spray really doesn't usually. The speed of the player can matter a good bit as well which obviously is advantage Braun. BABIP has flaws of course but Braun's BABIP that year really weren't sustainable.

 

I think Fielder is more likely to approach his 2007 numbers again than Braun. Maybe with a little more OBP but a little less SLG for Fielder for the same overall value.

[Brawndo the Thirst Mutilat]

logan3825 wrote:

Fielder's BABIP in 2007 was not much below his career norm. He has had .297/.283/.298 as his BABIP in his three full seasons. It wouldn't be surprising to see Braun put up a BABIP over .320 on a consistent basis. Braun has had .367/.305 over his first 2 years. Matt Holliday, for example, has had .332/.351/.377/.359 over the last 4 years. Pujols .316/.292/.317/.340. The main thing that came out of the BABIP discussion before the season is the fact that some batters have shown that they can maintain a high BABIP year to year. We dont' know if Bruan is a .290 BABIP guy or a .340 BABIP guy yet. Without several years of data it is hard to tell if a guy is lucky with a high BABIP or good.

The best way to try to suss that out is to look at BABIP relative to Line Drive % (fangraphs has it), which stabilizes over a much smaller sample of PA than BABIP, and which is the primary source of sustainable BABIP ability. In fact, if you are trying to predict next year's BABIP for a player, you would do much better to use his LD% +12% than his actual BABIP. So far, Braun is around a 17% LD% guy, which yields an expected BABIP of .290.

 

While I would agree that we don't exactly "know" whether Braun is BABIP-lucky or BABIP-good, I think that, unfortunately, the smart money has to be on "lucky" at this point.

[Ennder]

I've never really bought the LD+12% thing myself, it seems to just focus the flaws of BABIP even more. BABIP doesn't handle things like doubles off the wall or singles created with speed or the fact that FB and GB give different expected BABIP values in general. It probably shows a decent year to year correlation but not sure it really shows what is happening.

[Brawndo the Thirst Mutilat]

I'm surprised about that Endder...there isn't much I've encountered in the world of sabremetric thinking that makes more intuitive sense to me. Over 70% of line drives turn into hits, compared to like 25% of grounders and 15% of flies. If you want to have a consistently high BABIP, it seems like the thing to do is hit a lot of line drives.

 

The only real blind spot a LD%-derived approach to BABIP would seem to have is guys who run out an abnormal amount of infield singles on bunts and grounders. But even somebody like Ichiro (as extreme a specimen of that sort as I think you're likely to find), has a career LD% of 21.0% and a career BABIP of .356 (vs. an expected BABIP of .330 using LD+12%). I'm totally willing to believe that Ichiro is buying that extra 2.6% with his wheels, but I'd also tend to think that an extra 2 - 3% in play is then around the upper limit of what you can do with your legs. Heck, Willy Tavaras bunts 60 times a season for about 30 hits (and he's played the last two seasons at Coors, which, looking at the Holliday BABIP numbers Logan posted, seems to turn an awful lot of BIP into hits) and if you do the same sort of comparison with his numbers I just did with Ichiro's, you get 3.2%.

 

Braun certainly legs out more infield hits than Fielder, but then he isn't exactly Willy Tavares either. And even if he was as fast as Tavares and bunted for as many hits, unless his LD% comes up it, it looks like .320 is the ceiling for a BABIP he could reasonably sustain from season to season.

[Ennder]

LD% just doesn't show that great a correlation year to year in my experience, I've always felt it was as luck based as BABIP. I guess I've never seen anyone prove that LD% is a better correlation than just using BABIP by itself was my point more than anything. They both seem to share the exact same flaws.

 

That by itself is fine but I haven't seen good proof that using LD% instead of BABIP somehow improves predictive accuracy.