Waves of talent

[colbyjack]

A big reason why this site was originally started back in 2001 was to focus on the future, and a phrase that has been used by people, including those with the Brewers, is "wave of talent."

 

The first wave was to bring prospects such as JJ Hardy, Corey Hart, Dave Krynzel, Mike Jones, Ben Hendrickson and Brad Nelson to the Brewers. The second wave included Prince Fielder, Rickie Weeks, Tony Gwynn, Lou Palmisano, Manny Parra and Dana Eveland. The third consisted of Mark Rogers, Ryan Braun, Yovani Gallardo and Will Inman. Of course some of those prospects never panned out, some took longer to develop, and some didn't require much time at all.

 

Now that the team has a "core" (another frequently used phrase when discussing a talent base) of players that helped the team reach the playoffs, I thought it would be interesting to look at that next wave of talent.

 

Mat Gamel, Alcides Escobar and Angel Salome are already knocking at the big-league door, with all three spending some time with the big-league team in September. Hernan Iribarren and Brad Nelson are making a case to fill out the 25-man roster out of spring training next year. Brae Wright, David Welch, Derek Miller and Alexandre Periard could provide depth in either the starting rotation or the bullpen, while Jeremy Jeffress either profiles as a #1 or #2 starter or as a dynamic closer. Lorenzo Cain and Cole Gillespie offer OF depth, while Omar Aguilar, Luis Pena and Tim Dillard could all be in the mix for a bullpen job in the next year or two.

 

In addition, Taylor Green and Jonathan Lucroy are advancing rapidly and could catch up to this wave of talent.

 

I don't get the sense that people are as confident with this wave than they were with the ones that brought guys like Weeks, Hardy, Hart, Fielder and Braun to Milwaukee, yet this wave could go a long way in filling in some of the cracks (particularly bench and bullpen spots), while also replacing a few of the members from that initial wave that get too expensive, especially since all of them (minus Braun) are arbitration eligible. That could be different had we been able to track the progress of players such as Gamel, Salome and Green in the AFL and if Escobar was faring better in Venezuela.

 

And how comfortable do you feel with the next wave after that, the players that will make up the Brevard County and Wisconsin rosters? The 2008 draft class may create it's own wave of talent given the extra picks and the focus on power arms.

 

Overall, I think the system is very deep, but I am somewhat concerned about the perceived lack of impact talent that made the system so strong just a few short years ago. I may feel differently at this time next year if Lawrie is as good as we think he can be and if a few key pitchers step up in the lower levels (Scarpetta, Peralta and Nieves have already enjoyed big jumps in the P50). Can Braddock stay healthy? Can things start to click more for Brewer? Thoughts?

[jjfanec]

Oddly enough with LaPorta I would have felt really good about this wave of talent. That as it is Gamel, Escobar, Jeffress, and Salome is a nice top end. It is not dynamic but had Gamel not struggle down the stretch he would have been ranked fairly high to start the year. Escobar gets a lot of love from scouts and the Brewers brass. Jeffress could be a top end guy. Salome is a question mark in my mind, I actually like Lucroy more than him. I would put Lucroy, Green, Cain, and Aguilar as a second level of talent that could be really good as well.

Obviously, the big question mark for me is starting arms. However, we could be talking about this as a future strong suit after this year. With Jeffress and Periard as the top guys who will still be in the minors all next year, if the young guys improve and if Braddock can get heathly then we could have a nice group of starters. You have Odorizzi, Lintz, Scarpetta, Anundson, Fredrickson, Nieves, Seidel, and Peralta. You would think some of the guys could break out. Odorizzi and Scarpetta seem the most likely to get us excited because they have great stuff and pretty pretty well this year. Lintz, Fredrickson, Nieves and Peralta are interesting guys. Anundson and Seidel are getting to the levels where you start to see what they are made of. I feel there is a good chance by the end of next year we are excited about our starting pitching in the minors.

I am also concerned about the bats in the wave after Lucroy, Green and Cain, but I don't know a ton about guys outside of Gindl, Komatsu, Lawrie, and Dykstra.

[SenatorShriv]

I got hooked on Brewerfan by following the "first wave" of minor league talent coming through the system. I really got excited the year Fielder, Gwynn, Weeks, etc... were all in Beloit.

 

I haven't followed the current crop of prospects nearly as closely, in part because I don't see any potential "super-stars" in the group. There was always the potential that at least one or two of the Fielder, Weeks, Jones, Hardy crowd developed into a perenial All-Star. Once Braun and was added to the system it was clear there was going to be a handful of players that were going to put up huge numbers in the big leagues. I don't necessarily feel that way about the next class of prospects. It seems like there are some guys that will fill in the cracks and a few that will put together some really solid MLB careers, but there isn't anyone that has me excited to the point where I wake up every morning anxious to check the box score to see what they did.

[jjfanec]

I find it interesting that Hardy was ranked so high when his numbers were not that spectacular in the minors. Escobar is one year behind what Hardy was and his numbers stack up nicely. Both were/are considered very good defenders but Escobar is supposed to be a little better, so I think he compares well with Hardy. Gamel has hit everywhere he has been and is still just 22. His career OPS in the minors is .865, but he does pale in comparison to the number that Weeks and Prince put up. Jeffress has to have the most upside of anyone in the system, just not the overall numbers to match it.

[endaround]

Part of it to me is that I right now have no clue how to judge Southern League numbers. Four years ago if a player hit as well as Salome did in Huntsville I'd fell like the Brewers have a superstar. But because everyone was hitting in Huntsville with ridiculous BABIP (Salome .401, Gamel .392, Escobar .375, Braun for example was at .324 in 2006) I have no idea how to judge them.

[JJHardy7]

It is not dynamic but had Gamel not struggle down the stretch he would have been ranked fairly high to start the year.

 

Wasn't part of the struggles related to his injury down the stretch?

[Tedaldtada]

I love the talent in our system.

 

My gut feeling on our young talent is:

 

Possible Superstars

 

Jeffress

Escobar

Lawrie

 

X-time All-star

 

Gamel

Salome

Aguilar

Green (as a 2B)

Odorizzi

 

Above average

 

LuCroy

Gindle

Pena

Gillespie

Dykstra

Schaeffer

Lintz

Fredrickson

Cain

 

Average

 

Komatsu

Periard

B. Wright

Welch

Errecart

S. Wilson

C. Adams

 

Obviously, not all of these guys will pan out, but I am optimistic.

 

I don't know, I like where we are at.

 

I also would like to note that I discovered brewerfan.net because of a Google search for brewers top prospects about four or five years ago. Obviously, the power 50 popped up and I have been hooked ever since. I don't post that much, so I guess I kind of just lurk a lot (sorry), but the minor league coverage is excellent, and is the reason why I love this site.

[jjfanec]

It is not as dynamic but had Gamel not struggle down the stretch he would have been ranked fairly high to start the year.

 

Wasn't part of the struggles related to his injury down the stretch?

I heard that too, but I am not sure. I think the fact that his numbers dropped around when LaPorta left will sour him in the eyes of people who rank guys in the minors. Now, rankings don't matter but whether it was the loss of LaPorta, an injury, or a combination of both is what leaves Gamel as a little of a question mark.

[Tedaldtada]

One recent draft pick who may join the next wave (gamel, escobar, etc.) is Rob Wooten. I really like that guy too.

[MadScientist]

The next wave also suffers in comparison to the the previous waves, because the first wavers are in the majors now, and would be the ones replaced when the next wave hits. Replacing Counsell with Hardy is more exciting than replacing Hardy with Escobar.

[LouisEly]

Fourth wave - Gamel, Escobar, Salome, Iribarren, Dillard, Pena, Nelson

Fifth wave - Jeffress, Aguilar, Cain, Gillespie, Welch, Wright, Errecart

Sixth wave - Green, Lucroy, Periard, Anundsen, Fryer, Wooten

Seventh wave - Gindl, Braddock, Scarpetta, Seidel, Peralta, Wilson

Eigth wave - the 2008 draft class, Nieves, Zarraga

 

Like I've been saying, the cupboard is not bare. While there are less superstar prospects (no real Braun, Fielder, Weeks, etc.), they have a lot of solid major leaguers that can be starters or at least fill out the bench. They also have a lot of trading chips with which to fill holes on the major league team; I expect three of the above names (excluding Gamel, Escobar, Salome, Jeffress, Aguilar, Green, and Lucroy) to be packaged this winter for some bullpen help. For the right pitcher, I would include one of Salome or Lucroy. With Lucroy blocking him, it wouldn't surprise me if Fryer is traded while he is hot (sell high), and some say that Corporan is underrated and ML caliber defensively. And don't underestimate what Salome or Lucroy could be traded for should both develop into solid major leaguers.

 

Considering that the only positions that are not manned by young, high-ceiling players are 3B, C, and CF, they have potential replacements for those positions in Gamel (if his defense improves)/Green/Wilson, Salome/Lucroy/Fryer, and Cain. I don't know if Cain will be ready by 2010, so they may need a stopgap in CF for a year, unless they feel that Hart or Braun can be moved over or Gillespie is athletic enough to play there for a year. They have starting pitching, but it is at least a year off and other than Jeffress is not a #1 or #2 caliber starter. Gallardo, Parra, Jeffress, and company (Bush, Welch, Wright, Periard) will have to hold the fort and stay healthy until the 2007 and 2008 draft classes are ready.

[southpaw121505]

Replacing Counsell with Hardy is more exciting than replacing Hardy with Escobar.

 

Good point, there is some level of attachment with the first few waves and especially with the guys that got us into the postseason. I'm still very optimistic and excited. I think one thing we are lacking is one top, stud prospect that everyone feels good about and is very close. For example, we all feel good about Gamel but he has defensive question marks. If everyone was sold that Escobar could hit Hardy might already be gone. Jeffress could be special but will still take some time and we can't count an arm before it hatches, we know that all too well. Basically, I think a lot of people like our next waves but are being cautious and patient because despite their upside, none of our guys are forcing their way in just yet and still have some holes in their game or question marks.

[TheCrew07]

I've been terribly busy and haven't hit BF.net much last the 2 weeks, but I did catch this thread and I've been pondering the points made by various posters for a couple of days.

 

I like the system more at this point in time than I ever have in the past. The one weakness I would agree with somewhat is power, there doesn't seem to a true power prospect in the system at this point in time, but there are players who may have that potential who will be in the lower minors next year. While we don't have a guy with legit 50 HR talent at this second, we have quite a few players with legit 20 HR potential, maybe30 HR potential.

 

If the big club was where it was in 2004 I think people would be as excited about Gamel, Escobar, and Salome as they were about Fielder, Weeks, and Hardy. It's just a difference of perspective given the state of the MLB team and we've had the chance to grow attached to that first wave of players. I think sometimes we just get caught up in tools... when tools doesn't necessarily have anything to do with who will be the better MLB player for their career. Tools are nice and all, but who's to say that Green won't be a better all around player than a Weeks when it's all said and done? It's too difficult to project, and I'm not sold on using one method to evaluate the talent. I like some guys because they produce, I like some guys because they are toolsy, etc. A guy like Green might not be a better prospect than Weeks, but he might be a better baseball player in the end.

 

I'm a rarity I guess in that I'm more comfortable in the position players that are close than I was with a guy like Weeks. His AA season really gave me pause and I know he started the following year hot in AAA, but I would have rather he spent more time in AAA. I've always been a huge Hardy guy but he got hurt and skipped AAA entirely when his bat was questionable at the time. Some of these guys might have a total package of tools that will blow us away, but my guy feeling is that they will be above average MLB players. I have no doubt that Gamel and Salome will hit, I never have, I'm curious about how their defensive issues progress. Escobar will be fine defensively, and I see his last 2 seasons as evidence that he's maturing at the plate so I'm very comfortable with him as well. The trio of Hardy, Weeks, and Fielder is probably worse defensively than the Trio of Escobar, Salome, and Gamel. I don't think it's fair to compare them offensively at this point in time, it would pure speculation and MLEs are not gospel to me so I'd rather avoid that debate again. I will say that the latest trio has the potential to match the offensive production of the first though... no one will hit 50 HRs in a year, but Gamel and Salome could each hit 35ish, with Escobar adding 10-20 depending upon what you believe. Would they do it in 2009? No, but again I would be trying to compare both trios at similar points in their careers. I see Gamel, Escobar, Salome, Green, Cain, and Lucroy being the perfect compliment players to the existing MLB roster, freeing up one of the catching prospects and maybe a MLB player to be moved for another top of the rotation MLB starte

 

I really like the pitching depth, there are so many intriguing story lines out there to follow, but the upper part of the system is thin with top rotation potential. While we didn't have anyone with Yo/Parra/Inman type domination statistically last season, there's still plenty to be excited about at AA and below. It only takes 1 breakout season for our prospects to get national run or for a guy to be considered an "impact" player, and we have plenty of players toolsy enough to earn that label in the future. I liked the addition of the starters in the draft particularily Ordorizzi, Lintz, Bowman, and Luetge... Scarpetta proved he has promise after losing a year, some of the latin kids pitched well in Helena. I wouldn't be shocked if in 3 or 4 years the Brewers had an entire rotation of home grown talent. While there are short term issues in regards to top of the rotation talent, I don't see that as a long term issue at this point in time.

 

Beyond the top 6 positional players, I like the organization's depth here as well, with the exception of 1B and 2B. However 2B can be filled by SS and so on, so I'm not overly concerned about it, but I would like to see a pure power prospect or 2 at 1B in the near future. People looking for an impact bat in the system (how Gamel/Salome don't qualify I'm unsure) will need to look no further than Lawrie. Yes he hasn't taken a MiLB AB yet, but for some reason I feel better about him than I ever did about Braun. I'm intrigued by 2-3 of the positional players outside of of the first 6 I mentioned at every level, heck I even like Trejo and he only played in a couple of games before blowing out his knee at Helena. Maybe I'm just overly optomistic, but I really like what the Brewers have done.

 

While the current system isn't as highly rated as it was a couple of years ago by BA, top to bottom I think the system is much stronger/deeper and I'm just as excited about the kids on the way as I was for that first group of prospects. BA is great and all, but I'd take the system today over the system when it was headlined by Fielder/Weeks.

[Tbadder]

I'm not saying the cupboard is bare, but it FEELS depleted. This is a preceptual problem and in my case--my problem.

 

1) There doesn't seem to be any superstars

2) Brewer minor league teams are not doing very well overall it seems--not like in the past

3) Our core players at the major league level have significant holes, and so our minor leaguers, which don't seem to have as much talent, seem that much worse

4) These potential waves are not really putting up stunning numbers--again in comparison to what's come before, ie Prince, Braun

5) It's a cold comfort when trying to compete with big market clubs that we're producing a bunch of role players, average major leaguers and fill-ins. Without a consistent stream of Gallardos, Brauns, and Fielders we will fail as an organization

 

Again, and I repeat adamantly--this is my problem. I depend on people like ColbyJack to assuage my fears--but it just seemed so much more obvious before that our talent was first class.

 

Now, throw in the loss of Jack Z and his henchmen and well, jeez, I don't know. It feels like the good old early 80s in the farm system.

[Crewin06]

Tbadder, I guess I have to vehemently disagree with everything you said.

 

Prince never produced a season in the minors like Gamel did this year, Weeks never did until AAA. Braun even struggled for a half year in high A and Gamel's season stats compare very favorably to Braun's half season stats at AA. They both were 22 at the time.

 

I think the reason it doesn't feel like we have any top prospects is because we have so many prospects performing at such a high level and we are paying so much more attention to the prospects. Hell it has been discussed to death but the Huntsville lineup was scarry this year with prospects. Gillespie and Errecart were barely even mentioned and I could easily see each of them having an decent length major league career. Caleb Gindl and Taylor Green provided us with a very high prospect at the High A and Low A levels and I am excited about the draft class we just got in. And that doesn't even include Jeremy Jeffress who I would rank as our top prospect.

 

Weeks, Fielder and Braun had the high prospect status and buzz because of their draft position. This group of prospects seem to have their high prospect status because of their production.

 

Edit: Please avoid using long nested quotes, especially if you are responding to the last post in the thread. - Toby

[sbrylski]

I have an almost too good to be true type attitude about our current prospects. And then we beat to death each players weakness, which contributes to a unenthusiastic view of our current system.

 

I mean, didn't we have like 5 guys with an OPS in the top 10 of the Southern League at one point this year? Salome and Gamel finished first and third. Brantley slid off a bit and then was traded, and Escobar slipped off a bit as well.

 

I look at that and think, "yeah, right" and assume something unrealistic is going on - like park factors or luck over a small sample. I compare it to our current major leaguers' performance at that level and my brain assumes something has changed that allows our current prospects to do so well - "They can't be better than what we have now," says my brain.

 

But maybe they are. Salome does not get gushed over enough here, for one. He's a catcher, aged 22, who led the Southern League in OPS.

[joshua502000]

To add to sbrylski about the Southern league, not only did we have those 5 guys hit like they did but they also did it against some of the best arms in the minors like Kershaw, Price, Volsted, and even Samardzija. The wave that is in AA I am very excited about. I am not a fan of Peter Gammons but when he said that the group at Huntsville has the most amount of major league talent that he had ever seen assembled on one team, I was even more stoked. Yes, I realize that we traded some of them away but we still collectively have a very strong group. I love the way LouisEly broke down the waves. The fourth and sixth are my favorites! No maybe we don't have 2 guys rated in the top 20 prospects anymore but I don't remember when we have had arguably this many in the top 40-150. Sure they won't all pan out but unlike other years, this past year I had to check out the stats on every roster daily(other than Nashville) because every team had 2-5 players that I truly had to follow.

[sbrylski]

No maybe we don't have 2 guys rated in the top 20 prospects anymore but I don't remember when we have had arguably this many in the top 40-150. Sure they won't all pan out but unlike other years, this past year I had to check out the stats on every roster daily(other than Nashville) because every team had 2-5 players that I truly had to follow.

 

This is true. No longer are 3 or 4 individual player pages bookmarked, but the baseballreference organizational overview page is the bookmark. There's so many to follow.

[Pudster13]

Great topic Colbyjack!

 

Personally, I got really excited for the future of the franchise the very second we drafted Prince Fielder.

 

I think the first "wave" of talent that got everybody excited was the one that included Fielder, Hardy & Weeks.

Being able to follow those guys as youngstgers in Beloit was a lot of fun, and made it more rewarding once they panned out. I think the fact that the next wave that produced Braun and Gallardo is really what made us contenders.

 

However, the Brewers got very "lucky" in my opinion, b/c Braun and Gallardo are "once-in-a-generation" type players. I think they will remain the two core players for this franchise, while many of the first wave will be traded at some point.

 

I do feel that because of the great success of high (1st-2nd round) draft picks (Fielder, Weeks, Hardy, Braun, Gallardo, etc), as a whole, Brewerfan.net Nation is overrating the current wave of prospects. I don't feel we have any players in the current wave of players that will be superstars, and few that will be MLB starters.

 

Here's my humble opionion and "gut" feel on how these next WAVES OF TALENT will pan out:

 

Current Wave: (2008-2009 MLB action)

 

3B Mat Gamel- I think he is a bit overrated right now. I think he could become a solid regular if he stays at 3B and improves his defense. I think his average MLB season will be around .290, 15 hrs, 90 rbi. .360 OBP

 

SS Alcides Escobar- I think he is vastly overrated right now. I think he will be a fringe regular, but only b/c of his great defense. Despite his 2008 success, I'm not sold on his bat. I project a season of .260, 5 hr, 60 rbi, 20 sb. .300 OBP (yuck!)

 

C Angel Salome- I like his bat, but I'm concerned with his size. I think he will become a 2nd string type catcher. However, he doesn't have the defensive catching skills to be in the majors for a long career. If he gets a chance to start, I project a season of .285, 16 hr, 65 rbi, .340 OBP.

 

2B Hernan Iribarren- The Hurricane- I think he will be a reserve middle infielder in the majors, but only for 3-5 years, at best.

 

1B Brad Nelson- I still like his bat a little, but I think he will be a left-handed bench player and backup 1B-OF for several seasons, hopefully for the Brew Crew.

 

RHP Tim Dillard- I think he could survive as a middle reliever in the majors for a couple seasons. Otherwise, I'm not convinced his pitches are MLB quality.

 

 

NEXT WAVE-

 

RHP Jeremy Jeffress- I still have really high hopes for this one. I think he can be a #3 type starter if he continues to progress. I think the chances he becomes a #1 starter are about equal to him flaming out (a la Mike Jones, Rogers, etc). Don't like the drug red flag. Cross your fingers.

 

3B Taylor Green- He's a guy that I think is actually a little underrated. I think he could be a solid-average major leaguer and a real gamer. I think he could play either 3B or 2B in the majors. Love his plate disipline so far. (141 BB, 159 SO in minors) If he can become a regular, I think he could put up numbers similar to Gamel, .280, 15 hr, 75 rbi. .375 OBP (me likey!)

 

OF Cole Gillespie- Also underrated so far, I think he could become a 4th OF type for a few seasons in the bigs.

 

C Jonathon Lucroy- I think he has a better shot a being a starting catcher than Salome. I think he could have a decent career with a projected season average of .260, 12 hr, 60 rbi, .340 OBP

 

LHP Zach Braddock- I actually would compare him a lot to Dana Eveland, but only if he stays healthly and improves. I think I'd only project him to be a #4 or #5 starter, but a potentional innings eater, which would be valuable.

 

Others to watch:

OF Caleb Gindl (I like his hitting potential)

RHP Evan Anundsen

RHP Alexander Periard

OF Lorenzo Cain (toolsy, but won't be a MLB starter)

 

2008 DRAFT WAVE:

 

C Brett Lawrie- I really love this kid. If he can't stick at catcher, I could see him as a 2B/OF similar to Craig Biggio, with a long and productive hitting career. Still a ways away, however.

 

RHP Jake Odorizzi- I like him a lot. Same red flags and risks as everytime you draft a HS pitcher. If I had to pick between him and Jeffress, I'd pick him.

 

LHP Evan Fredrickson- I thought he was reach for the Brewers. Don't think he'll amount to much in MLB if he can't refine his command. I hope I'm wrong.

 

RHP Seth Linz- Doesn't have the ceiling as Odorizzi, imo. If he doesn't make it as a starter, I could see him at the back end of a MLB bullpen someday.

 

OF/2B Cutter Dykstra- Diving into walls style of play like his father, Lenny. How his bat develops in the minors, will determine if he is a solid regular or a 4th OF type.

 

 

I'm excited by the prospect with the Brewers adding more depth to the sytsem during the 2009 draft as well, as we should have several high picks if we lose both CC and Benny.

 

I don't see many blue-chip stars in the system currently, at least not even in the same vein as Fielder and Hardy (let alone Braun or Gallardo). However, I think our farm system will continue to produce MLB players.

 

I think the fact that the Brewers are bringing single-A baseball back to Wisconsin (Timber Rattlers in Appleton), will be a great thing for Brewer fans in the state.