Biggest fears this offseason

[hawing]

Even worse, in my opinion, would be Sheets signing with the Cubs.

Oh, good point. Thanks for doubling my fears. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

[craig712]

My biggest fear is that the lineup doesnt change or gets worse.

My next biggest fear is that Fielder shows up bigger than ever.

[paul253]

We have a top-10 CF option in Cameron, who you're saying is a problem. Weeks would be better as a #5 or so batter, but to get stuck on AVG at this point in time is preposterous. Even if you go off 'Weeks is a .240 hitter', which is worst-case imo, you still have a .340 OBP & at worst an avg. 2B. Then to claim that Brantley is our best leadoff option for 2009... I really don't know what to say. Brantley is not, and was not ready.

I didnt mean to imply was the best in house option to start the season, just that he was our best in house option in general. Sorry for the confusion. But while we're on him, he had an excellent year in AA, so to suggest he would have been ready by the allstar break isnt too much of a stretch. Also, I'm not debating the Cameron isnt good at what he does, just thinking that we don't really need what he does. My only point was that he doesnt improve our weaknesses, which he clearly doesnt. Weeks....eh....like i said, he shouldnt be hitting leadoff, but we havent been able to replace him for 3 years for some reason. I'm happy with his OBP, but thats about it.

I think the Brewers need to move on with Sabathia. Let's face it, he's not going to resign. Focus on getting Sheets, as much as I hate to say this, a 2 year, incentive laden deal. Focus on figuring out who's going to play third. Focus on signing two good bullpen arms. If we go into the season with a rotation of Gallardo, Sheets, Parra, Bush, and Suppan, I'll be satisfied. The bullpen isnt terrible, with Villanueva, Stetter, Riske and McClung and maybe Shouse. Dillard is also a possibility, but you need to sign someone, someone like Hoffman or Kerry Wood, and maybe another guy.

 

[TooLiveBrew]

But while we're on him, he had an excellent year in AA, so to suggest he would have been ready by the allstar break isnt too much of a stretch.

 

He had a good season, but fell short of SLG-ing .400 at Double-A. That is not MLB-ready, likely not even by the ASB. BABIP of .334 inflated things too. Brantley's a fine prospect, but is still a season or two away from being a positive contributor imo.

 

 

Also, I'm not debating the Cameron isnt good at what he does, just thinking that we don't really need what he does. My only point was that he doesnt improve our weaknesses, which he clearly doesnt

 

This line is so tired. Repeated over & over again so far this offseason by the same people saying that Cam is expendable. He OPS's .800 on a yearly basis & plays a fine CF. How can you possibly claim we don't need that? In a perfect world sure we go sign a LH 3Bman that has an OBP of .390 & hits the 30 or so HR that Cam provided in 2008. But the reality is that just ain't happening. Then adjusting to that reality, there's no realistic way you improve CF over Cam. In fact, most avenues people discuss on CF would actually be steps down. I repeat: Mike Cameron is a positive contributor to the team. The fact that he's not LH & carrying an OBP of .400 is almost 100% immaterial. Looking to replace him because he 'does things we already have' is making the team worse overall. We DON'T have a CF that can BB a lot & provide 30-HR power if Cam's gone.

 

 

Focus on getting Sheets, as much as I hate to say this, a 2 year, incentive laden deal.

 

That would be ideal imo. It will be interesting to see what the competing offers for Sheets are like.

[paul253]

I just get the feeling that some people are so impressed by slugging and Home Runs that they overrate it quite a bit, and underrate (is that a word?) anyone who doenst have a high slugging percentage and thinks that player cant possibly be successful because a pitcher will just throw a fastball right down the middle and never walk them.

 

The thing with Cameron, yes he has a high slugging percentage, which brings his OPS way up. But a .331 OBP? .328 the year before that? Thats not good. You can find someone who can get on base at a higher rate than that. You dont need to find someone who will hit 30 homeruns. Fielder will hit 30 homerun. Braun will hit 30 homerns. Hardy might, and Hart might also and barring injury they'll both get at least 20. I'm not arguing that Cameron isnt a good player. His defense is superior. But in this lineup, with these players I would prefer someone to compliment the above listed players as opposed to someone who does the exact same thing as all of them. Some people just seem to get so pissed when someone says Cameron isnt the player to improve the offense. I dont think he is. Who is? That I dont know.

[logan82]

I just get the feeling that some people are so impressed by slugging and Home Runs that they overrate it quite a bit, and underrate (is that a word?) anyone who doenst have a high slugging percentage

That has to be a first. Usually the criticism is overrating OBP. Most of the high OBP guys are middle of the order hitters.

Some people just seem to get so pissed when someone says Cameron isnt the player to improve the offense.

 

Most of the time that is because the options brought up are not as good of hitters as Cameron. Even going by OBP. A good hitter is a good hitter regardless of how they get their numbers. People are going to continue to be upset by your argument as long as you seem to focus on strikeouts. A .334OBP was the league average for center fielders so Cameron is just under that and he way out-slugged most of them.

[paul253]

Except that nowhere in the post did I mention strikeouts. I think that you're just assuming I dont like Cameron because of his strikeouts because they are so high. I dont like the strikeouts but I've kinda lightened up on the affect of strikeouts. What I really dont like even more though is the low OBP. What I did mention is high home runs, and low OBP. The Brewers need is higher OBP and can afford to give up a little on Home Runs. So his OBP was slightly below average for centerfielders. How is bringing back someone who is below the league average in an area you need to improve on going to help? The alternative I've mentioned before was Jim Edmonds. Yes, he may not want to sign in Milwaukee, and yes he's old and wont play as much, but just about every offensive number of his was better than Camerons, so why not go after him instead. He would also probably cost a lot less. If not him, maybe try to pry Dejesus away from KC. Its not like they are going anywhere anytime soon and we have the prospects to get him. My biggest fear, is that they bring back the same offense as last season which completely evaporated during the final month of the season. You cant improve an offense by bringing everyone back and hoping they get better.

[logan82]

There is nothing wrong with hitting home runs. Hart and Hall were much worse than just a bit(might as well say average when you are talking about .003 points) below average in OBP. They stunk. Nobody is saying that bringing back Cameron is going to make our team better. They are all saying that not bringing him back makes us much worse. Replacing Hall and/or Hart(or expecting Hart to return to closer to his 2007 numbers) is much easier than replacing Cameron.

[paul253]

Trust me, I was as down on Corey Hart as much as anyone last season, but I dont think 3 bad months is worth giving up on him. In '07, his OPS was .892, and in '06 it was .796. He had a terrible September, but has shown before what he can do, and has done it over an entire year. Heck before the allstar break his OPS was .831. I'm not ready to dump him yet because he has a ton of room for improvement. If next year is another ,700 OPS year, then lets start looking around.

There is nothing wrong with hitting home runs.

Certainly not, but they are much more effective when someone is on base for them. So instead of batting Hardy, Braun, Fielder, Hart, and Cameron, hoping 2 of them hit homeruns, why not find some guys to get on base so that if they dont hit a homerun, a single or double will score the run.

[TooLiveBrew]

Ok Paul. Share with us your answer for who will be a better choice than Cameron in CF.

[MJLiverock]

That's the rub that gets me going too TLB. For all the hate of Cameron and people wanting someone else, I never seem to see who this magical player with high OBP, good defender, reliable daily, available to the Brewers guy is.

 

David DeJesus is about the only possibility offered and we have no idea if KC wants to trade him or what they would want for him since they really have no incentive to get rid of him unless they get a lot in return. I think they realize there just aren't a lot of these guys around in CF.

[paul253]

I already did mention who i think would be a better CF for our team. You can go back and find it if you like. I acknowledged that he might not want to sign, but I'd be willing to guess if you gave him $10 million at one year he'd go for it. I think hed go for 1 year at $6 millon with possibly a team option for '10.

MJL, I dont know if you were reffering to my posts or not, but i certainly dont hate Mike Cameron. He a good player....in certain categories. In the categories he's good at, we have several other players that are also good. In the categories he is not good in, we dont have hardly anyone who IS good at them. This appears just be a difference in opinion as to whether a home run reliant offense is good enough to win, or whether a balanced offense consisting of fewer home runs and higher OBP and batting average is the way to go. TLB appears to think the home run offense is fine. While I certainly respect that opinion, and can even see why he'd argue for it, I simply dont agree with it. The offensive numbers in September, when we werent hitting homeruns, were pathetic. Yet nobody seemed to be able to ease up on their swing and try to just put the ball in play. In fact, they all appeared to swing even harder. The numbers in the postseason went far beyond pathetic...a .271 OBP....a .254 Slugging %.....a .206 batting average.....32 K's in 4 games....4 extra base hits total.

Do you really think taking Billy Hall out of the lineup is going to make that much of an improvement? And now that I answered who I think was a better CF option, who is this 3rd basemen that is going to improve everything so much? Branyon? He does have a good OBP, and he really grew on me last year. But he is another all or nothing type guy. Plus, he was injured all lot last year too. Mike Lamb? I wouldnt mind seeing him given a shot, but I don't think he is the magical fix either.

[Invader3K]

paul, I looked, and unless I missed something in this thread, I have no idea who you're talking about. No need to be so cryptic.

[TooLiveBrew]

He meant Edmonds.

 

Jim Edmonds provides offense only at this point, and in fact hurts you in the field according to every metric I've seen this season/offseason. For a frame of reference, the Chone 2009 defensive projections have Cam as +3 in CF, Edmonds -6, Hart -8, Braun -7, Carlos Beltran & Grady Sizemore both +9. We'd be taking a big step down in terms of defense, and paying roughly the same amount of money. I think that at best you're talking a lateral move there. To top it all off, Edmonds is going to be 39 next season.

 

 

EDIT: Chone 2009 OF defense projections

[MJLiverock]

I don't think Edmonds is a viable option at this point. He is broken down and likely won't play more than 100 games if he tried as an everyday fielder. His back problems are just too nagging. He put up a .343 OBP last year playing in 111 games. He played in 117 game sand 110 games in the 2 years prior to that. His last 3 year has seen his average OBP drop below .350 and given age and health I would expect that trend to continue. I suppose one could try and platoon him with Kapler to reduce his playing time and let him face righties exclusively where his OBP picks up more but I would still worry about his health making him unavailable for long stretches or even just sporadically when his back flares up. He is also not the defensive guy he once was.

[paul253]

Well that I do agree with. I wouldnt ever think he could be the 150 start player he once was, and yes his defense has dropped. But its not like we are throwing Billy Hall out there. He is still a good defender. And while he OBP dropped last year, it was still higher than Cameron's. His Slugging was actually higher too. And if you only look at his numbers is Chicago, his Slugging was almost 100 points better than Cameron's. He played in 111 games total. I dont know how many he missed after being released by SD before ending up in Chicago, but if he played in 111 games and put up the same numbers, or anythign even close to what he did in Chicago, I'd be more than happy. Kapler can get the starts against lefties, which with Pittsburgh in the division will be quite a few.

 

Another option, albeit more expensive and I believe a Type A free agent, would be Abreu. The outfield would have to be reshuffled, but he is exactly the kind of player we could use. OBP of .371, slugging .471. 22 steals, played in 156 games. Maybe a 2 year $24 million deal for him with added incentives? When that expires Cain/or Gillespie should be around to take his place. Late in games you could always throw Gwynn in Center as a defensive replacement.

[Invader3K]

Abreu would be great, but I'm sure someone will throw a bunch of money at him. The Brewers won't be able to make him the best offer.

[paul253]

You never know, especially if we dont resign Sheets. We are losing a bunch off the payroll....$10 million for Gagne, 3 for Counsell, 3 from Turnbow, like 12 from sheets, another chunk for Mota. Its seems like all the big spenders are focuses elsewhere, LAD on Manny, LAA on Textiera, and NYY on pitching, and the Mets on KRod.

 

Are there any teams linked to Abreu, or do we know what his demands are? He made 16 last season, but that was with the Yankees. I think we could go as high as 13 or 14 per, so long as its no longer than a 2 year deal. Basically thats like replacing Gagne and Counsell with Abreu. Then Suppan, Hall, and Abreu will all clear at the same time, IIRC.

[craig712]

I would like to get Abreu on a 2 year deal. Only question then would be who is the odd man out? Cam to the Yanks? Hart to whomever?

[Ennder]

I'd love to sign Abreu 2-3 years ago. His offense is slipping and his defense is pretty terrible, I doubt he earns what he gets paid even if he does fit our needs pretty well.

[colbyjack]

This is a good example of what I'm scared of:

 

http://hotstove.mlblogs.c..._not_the_most_likely.html

 

...Wood-to-Milwaukee seems like a stretch today for several reasons:

 

1. The Brewers will pursue starting pitching and left-handed bats before looking at the bullpen. Wood, meanwhile, is among the available closers sure to get strong early interest.

 

2. When he does address the bullpen, general manager Doug Melvin is unlikely to spend big dollars on one reliever after Eric Gagne's struggles last season. Wood may be seeking a three-year deal.

 

I'm not sold on Kerry Wood, as he wouldn't be my first choice, but he certainly wouldn't be a bad choice either, but this line of thinking really worries me. I hope McCalvy is just speculating, because if true the reasoning could cause me to change my opinion of Doug Melvin.

 

Starting pitching and left-handed bats are important, but why can't the team be looking for bullpen help at the same time? Do they potentially expect to use all of their resources on these two parts of the team that they can't appropriately address their bullpen?

 

Just because Eric Gagne struggled last year doesn't mean their next option will. Everyone knew Gagne presented a great deal of risk even at the time of the deal, while everyone also recognized that for one-year he wouldn't break the team's back if the move didn't pan out.

 

The team could lose four pitchers from their bullpen, possibly five if you count Todd Coffey. There are some internal candidates to make up half of the bullpen at least, but this is a good year to go out and find a closer given all of the options that are available.

[twobrewers]

My biggest fear...

 

That the first Milwaukee Brewers team in 26 years to make the playoff gets completely broken apart.

 

I feel like we are in the midst of a huge rebuilding project right now - and dang it...I liked our old team!

[knowitall]

I fear:

1. Having Weeks, Cameron, and Hall as regular starters again - but maybe we'll deal Cameron at least for the switch hitting CF from the Yanks

2. Having no left handed hitting other than Prince in the lineup - inexcusable last year.

3. Paying for a second tier FA pitcher and passing him off as our "new No. 2 starter"

4. The same smoke and mirrors pitch we've gotten for the last 35 years resulting in not signing one top notch FA