Biggest fears this offseason

[bklynbrewcrew]

I was curious to hear what everyones biggest fears are regarding this offseason. My biggest fear is losing Sheets and Sabathia and Melvin getting desperate enough where he overpays for another Suppan type or closer. I am very concerned that if we dont resign one of our two aces we will end up giving a 10 mil plus per year deal to a Garland or a Fuentes and that would make us a much weaker team going forward. My theory regarding free agents has always been either sign the top of the line types like Sheets and Sabathia or look for bargains on short term deals. Overpaying for mediocrity is the worst strategy possible and I fear that is what we will do if we lose out on Sheets and Sabathia.

[Invader3K]

My concerns are similar to yours. I'm worried we will get none of the following - Sabathia, Sheets, or Peavey. Those are the only three free agent pitchers that really interest me at this point. We'll be forced to trade away a position player to get a good starting pitcher, or overpay for a decent starter who will be more at Suppan's level, like you mentioned.

 

I am also worried the offense will not be improved at all. Our guys aren't _that_ young anymore, and I don't have that much faith that the cumulative "learning" improvements they will make will be enough to improve on last year's offense. Adding one quality bat to the lineup somewhere would help a ton.

[Ennder]

My biggest fear is we overpay for Sabathia or trade for Peavy who is going to be way over priced or trade Hardy and start Escobar. Basically we make some move that will hurt the team long term.

 

Signing someone like Garland or Byrd would be just as bad, though signing Fuentes wouldn't be that huge of a deal(not that I want to sign him either) to me since we have no dominant RPs at all. I'm not a fan of closers but I am a fan of good bullpens.

[bklynbrewcrew]

I would hate to spend big money on medicroty. Every year there are pitchers like Suppan, Silva, or Washburn that end up getting way more than they are worth and I fear the Brewers signing a guy like that to make up for the loss of Sheets and Sabathia. We already have one albatross of a contract with Suppan and the last thing we can afford is another one like Garland. Sabathia is most likely out of reach financially and I can live with that but we really need to make an effort to resign Sheets. Im willing to take a chance on Ben because he is a great pitcher vs paying a 5th starter type 10 mil per year because of durability.

[PilprinBuddha]

My fears are silmilar to those being stated...If we don't sign CC, Sheets, or acquire a #1 or #2 starter, this team will be taking a step back. We could sign a Garland and or Brad Penny type, but as stated above they are likley Suppan type pitchers.

 

Without a solid offseason, this team could drop off the map again. That is my ultimate fear.

[joepepsi]

My biggest worry is Prince or Hardy are traded leaving gaping holes in the offense. My second biggest worry is no improvements are made to the lineup and we enter Opening Day with a lineup of stubborn free swinging nitwits, just like we saw in September.

 

Call me crazy, but I'm not that worried about the pitching. Without Sheets or CC the Brewers will have trouble competing with the Cubs, but should stay in the running for the Wild Card.

[brewmann04]

That we lose both CC ans Sheets and we over pay for a mediocre Pitcher.

The Bullpen does not find a legimate Closer.

The Batting Order does not get Tweaked a bit to add Balance to the lineup.

Finally we go back to our losing ways

[MJLiverock]

The team loses both Sheets and Sabathia and decides to stand pat with the current roster hoping for improvement from the offense and improvement from the bullpen. I fear they add no one to bolster the pen's fairly weak arms. Gallardo comes back and is a decent starter, Bush is Bush but after that it is a grab bag of mediocrity and a struggle to fill the rotation on a consistent basis.

 

In this scenario I see a struggle to finish around .500 even with a slighltly better offense via Hart, Hall or Weeks doing a little better. I don't see the rest of the team collectively doing much more than they did in 2008 with guys like Kendall, Cameron, Kapler falling off a bit.

 

The average WC winner in the NL has averaged 91.7 wins since 1996 putting the Brewers in the 10-12 games back category.

[crewcrazy]

The Brewers sign Derek Lowe, only to get Suppan-like results from him in the long run. Weeks is dumped for a mediocre reliever. Fielder is traded for an uninspiring package (something like to the Yankees for Cano and Hughes). Hardy gets *very* expensive *very* quickly. Overpay for a "closer", only to realize that McClung was probably more cost-effective in 2009. Every transaction thread is followed by 10 pages of "We're screwed, what's Melvin thinking, this team is garbage" posts.

[monty57]

2009 roster includes:

 

Bill Hall as our starting 3B

Dave Bush as our #2 starter

no significant additions to our bullpen after the losses of Torres, Mota, Gagne, Shouse and possibly one of McClung/Villy to the rotation

[jjfanec]

2009 roster includes:

 

Bill Hall as our starting 3B

Dave Bush as our #2 starter

no significant additions to our bullpen after the losses of Torres, Mota, Gagne, Shouse and possibly one of McClung/Villy to the rotatio

This would mean we did absolutely nothing in the off-season that would be a big fear. I agree with the idea of Hall starting at 3B being my biggest fear.

[Ennder]

It would also mean Gallardo or Parra were hurt since I'd say both of them are better pitchers than Bush.

[MJLiverock]

I was kind of playing around with the inning totals on the starting staff and have to wonder how many inning Gallardo and Parra can be counted on for.

 

Last year the starters threw 983 innings (just over 6 a game) but Sheets (198) and Sabathia (130) were significant. Bush threw 185 so if he can do that again, assume Gallardo goes 170 (coming off an injury and a big jump from 2008's limited duty, consistent with 2007), Parra gets 170 which would be a slight improvement over last year where he really looked wore down. That leaves 458 innings for Suppan and whoever else is used at the back of the rotation, about 47% of the innings for Suppan or worse pitchers unless someone is brought in or guys like McClung (if not in bullpen) will really have to improve.

 

Even if Gallardo can put up Sheets like numbers, which is probably optimistic, that leaves about 160 innings of very good to elite pitching innings that will be replaced with much worse pitchers.

[Ennder]

We definitely need to improve in the bullpen or lineup if we don't sign a real pitcher to join the rotation. Sheets and Sabathia were roughly 5 wins each, Torres might be 2 wins and probably is offset by not having Gagne, Turnbow, Riske (the injured version). Gallardo is probably at least 2 wins so we are at -8 wins. Add a win somewhere in the bullpen, a win from improvements at 3B and Hart/Fielder moving their numbers up a little and we are at -6 wins. Then if we sign some mediocre SP we are at like -4 or -5 wins.

 

I don't see how we go into next year without the expectation of at least 84-85 wins. I hope that we don't build for 85 wins though, they need to make a bigger move somewhere and get that number up near 87-88 to have a chance at the wild card.

 

To look at it another way going into last year people thought we were somewhere between an 85 and 90 win team, we lost Sheets who people were expecting to be hurt and was probably only worth 3-4 wins in most peoples mind and Torres who wasn't a huge part of the picture. So why would we go into this season thinking we were a sub .500 team?

[paul253]

My concerns are similar to yours. I'm worried we will get none of the following - Sabathia, Sheets, or Peavey. Those are the only three free agent pitchers that really interest me at this point. We'll be forced to trade away a position player to get a good starting pitcher, or overpay for a decent starter who will be more at Suppan's level, like you mentioned.

 

I am also worried the offense will not be improved at all. Our guys aren't _that_ young anymore, and I don't have that much faith that the cumulative "learning" improvements they will make will be enough to improve on last year's offense. Adding one quality bat to the lineup somewhere would help a ton.

 

Invader, I could not agree any more with what you said. I think some people are completely overestimating certain players we have, namely Cameron and Parra. Don't get me wrong, I love Parra, but i think its too early to rely on him as a #2. I also think with the whole Cameron thing.....I just dont see him strengthening any weaknesses in the offense, and its hard to improve an offense if you dont fix whats wrong. Basically they are trying to add to our strenghts, power, while not addressing the weakness, OBP and situational hitting. Also, at some point you have to realize Weeks is a .240 hitter who shouldnt be leading off, yet we keep trotting him out there in the leadoff spot because for going on 3 years now we havent been able to find anyone to replace him. Then our best in house option, Brantely, gets traded away. I'm afraid the team isnt going to be nearly as good next year.

[BrewCrewForever]

I have faith in Doug Melvin to make the right moves for this club. He won't make a Suppan like signing mistake twice. And I don't think he would trade Hardy or Fielder unless blown away by a deal. He knows how good/valuable they both are.

[tigerbrew]

My biggest fear is losing Sabathia through free agency, really hope DM gets CC signed. My next biggest fear is losing Hardy and Hart, I sure hope DM don't trade them this offseason.

[MNBrew]

My biggest offseason fears:

 

1. Losing both CC and Sheets without replacing them with someone substantial

1a. Overpaying for a replacement for CC or Sheets

2. Bill Hall, 2009 starting 3B or being counted on for anything significant

3. OBP & situational hitting/RISP issues not meaningfully addressed -- we're past the point of time (i.e., continued development of younger players) alone being able to cure this ill

4. Trading the wrong guys to fill needs (see: Fernando Vina, Jeff Cirillo, etc.)

5. Mota & Shouse also signing elsewhere.

6. Overpaying for not-so-great relievers

 

The Torres retirement does change the bullpen picture considerably regardless of what role he would've filled in '09. Stetter, Villanueva, McClung if he's not starting, maybe Dillard or DiFelice..... Somewhere in there needs to be someone a little more proven and who could close games with some degree of reliability.

[TooLiveBrew]

Basically they are trying to add to our strenghts, power, while not addressing the weakness, OBP and situational hitting. Also, at some point you have to realize Weeks is a .240 hitter who shouldnt be leading off, yet we keep trotting him out there in the leadoff spot because for going on 3 years now we havent been able to find anyone to replace him. Then our best in house option, Brantely, gets traded away. I'm afraid the team isnt going to be nearly as good next year.

 

We have a top-10 CF option in Cameron, who you're saying is a problem. Weeks would be better as a #5 or so batter, but to get stuck on AVG at this point in time is preposterous. Even if you go off 'Weeks is a .240 hitter', which is worst-case imo, you still have a .340 OBP & at worst an avg. 2B. Then to claim that Brantley is our best leadoff option for 2009... I really don't know what to say. Brantley is not, and was not ready.

 

I guess my biggest fear this offseason would be that Melvin would suddenly start getting hung up on AVG & the idea that positional assignments should be ignored... & focus on some abstract lineup where the leadoff hitter hits .325 no matter what, plays CF, is a fast guy that steals bases & doesn't strike out. We could always hire Clint Hurdle & bring Willy Taveras with him.

[LouisEly]

1) Neither CC nor Sheets returns and Peavey is traded to the Cubs.

 

2) Something happens to Prince and he is out the whole year.

[ILuvDaBush]

My biggest fear? That the rumor last offseason about Yo doing something highly dangerous turns out to be true and he derails his entire career. I still believe Yo is a better pitcher than this year's NL Cy.

[colbyjack]

I hope that the Sabathia situation is resolved quickly so the Brewers don't get hung being unable to make other moves until they know where he stands. As much as I will always remember how dominant CC was, life will go on without him and the team can be successful without him. I'm sure the team is also prepared to move on without him, but I just hope they don't miss out on any other opportunities while waiting for an answer.

 

While there are always FA bargains in January, I want to see Melvin be somewhat aggressive this year. If he's serious about adding more balance to the lineup I hope he's not afraid to make a potentially unpopular move on paper to make it happen and to make the team better.

 

I also fear he won't add a legitimate closer with so many seemingly available.

 

I fear the Yankees will sign both Sabathia and Teixeira. Not getting a first-round pick for CC would be a crime.

[jjfanec]

I fear the Yankees will sign both Sabathia and Teixeira. Not getting a first-round pick for CC would be a crime.

I agree with a lot of what you said but this is a fear of mine as well. We could trade them Prince just so we get their number one. A late first round pick and a sandwich pick would go a long way in replacing the guys from the trade. We would pick back to back in the first round. It is too bad the Rangers are a leader for Sheets because we would get their second I think. 3 late first round picks would be great.

That said I think the Angels will pony up a bunch of cash for Teixeira to keep him around.

I really fear McClung being our opening day closer as well.

[hawing]

In terms of a fear that would, say, make me reconsider going to some games, I'd absolutely hate for CC to become a Cub. I would have very serious second thoughts about attending a Cubs-Brewers game that featured CC pitching for the four-letter franchise.

[crewcrazy]

In terms of a fear that would, say, make me reconsider going to some games, I'd absolutely hate for CC to become a Cub. I would have very serious second thoughts about attending a Cubs-Brewers game that featured CC pitching for the four-letter franchise.

Even worse, in my opinion, would be Sheets signing with the Cubs. Sabathia wouldn't bother me that much, since he was pretty much a hired gun and I never got too attached to him. Ben Sheets wearing a Cubs hat would rip my heart out, even if he did spend half the contract length on the DL.