Farm Hops - November 2008

[colbyjack]

Please note that this story normally would be posted on the homepage of Brewerfan.net. Due to some technical difficulties, I am posting this story here on the forums for all to enjoy.

http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/images/2008/06/03/6pnKHfg9.jpg
Mat Gamel

Farm Hops - November 2008
by Patrick Ebert

Welcome to Brewerfan.net's season-ending edition of Farm Hops in which we will review the entire 2008 season of all of the Brewers minor league affiliates. Toby Harrmann, Brad Jiles, Jim Goulart and myself are going to hand out some hardware while tackling some of the key issues while looking ahead to the 2009 season.

Minor League Player of the Year 2008:
Mat Gamel, 3B, Huntsville Stars/Nashville Sounds/Milwaukee Brewers
Mat Gamel can hit, no doubt about it, as he has done so at every level since he was drafted in the fourth round of the 2005 draft. And he continues to get better, seeing his power bloom considerably this past year after being named the MVP of the Hawaii Winter Baseball league last fall. He was one of three players on the Huntsville Stars squad that was considered for this award, including Alcides Escobar and Angel Salome. Since we're not a big fan of ties for such awards, Gamel got the nod by being among the league leaders in the Southern League in nearly every offensive category. He finished the season with the big-league Brewers when the rosters expanded on September 1st after a week-long stay with the Nashville Sounds, recording his first big-league hit (a double) off of Padres starter Chris Young when he tossed a two-hit complete game against the Brewers in early September. A tender elbow caused him to be shut down in mid-September and also kept him from participating in the Arizona Fall League, but he should be healthy and ready to contribute for the Sounds, where he will be a phone call away from Milwaukee.

Minor League Pitcher of the Year 2008:
Jeremy Jeffress, RHP, Brevard County Manatees / Huntsville Stars
Despite starting the year suspended for testing positive for an illegal substance (believed to be marijuana), Jeffress put together a very strong year amidst incredible skepticism. He reportedly has got his life back on track, avoiding some of the negative influences in his life to stay clean, and he was rewarded for his success with Brevard County by being promoted to Huntsville towards the end of the season. He now is participating in the Arizona Fall League where he is focusing on improving his control, limiting walks and honing his secondary pitches. Few players in all of the minor leagues can match Jeffress' pure stuff, and he has been able to avoid serious injury on his ascent to Milwaukee. He is expected to return to Huntsville to begin the 2009 season, and could very well end the year in Nashville, if not Milwaukee. If he continues to improve, he could be counted on to become a valuable member of the big-league Brewers in 2010, where he could join fellow homegrown products such as Yovani Gallardo and Manny Parra in the starting rotation.

Newcomer of the Year 2008:
Erik Komatsu, OF, Helena Brewers
College draftees that enjoy immediate success in the Pioneer League always draw some skepticism, since we have learned to temper our enthusiasm waiting to see what these players can do during their first full season of professional baseball. At this point in time, Komatsu looks to be a very astute selection as an eighth round pick from the 2008 draft class after he hit .321/.394/.538 during his pro debut, smacking 19 doubles and 11 home runs in 68 games. While he just turned 21 years old, his bat is reportedly polished enough to handle a relatively aggressive path to the big leagues. As a shorter, left-handed hitter his profile is similar to Caleb Gindl's, and like Gindl offers something the Brewers are short on from top to bottom in their system: A potential impact left-handed bat. He could open the 2009 season with either the Wisconsin Timber Rattlers or with Brevard County.

Most Improved 2008:
Eric Fryer, C, West Virginia Power
Unlike Komatsu, Fryer didn't fare so well during his debut with the Helena Brewers a year ago, hitting .209 after being drafted in the 10th round out of Ohio State. A durable and versatile overall athlete, Fryer's success is especially encouraging considering that he can catch. He hit .335/.407/.506 for the West Virginia Power, although it remains to be seen how the Brewers view his future. While he didn't make his debut in 2008 until the month of May, he made a strong enough impression to be a part of their future plans now. He is poised to move up to Brevard County to open the 2009 season, and if he continues to hit the ball as well as he did this past year, he could finish the year with Huntsville.

Comeback Player of the Year 2008:
Brad Nelson, 1B, Nashville Sounds/Milwaukee Brewers
It seems like a long, long time ago when Brad Nelson was considered to be the Brewers' top prospect. A broken hamate bone while playing for the High Desert Mavericks back in 2003 significantly derailed his career, as he struggled to find his stroke that made him such a promising offensive player until this past season, in which he hit .286/.380/.480 for the Nashville Sounds. That success led to him not only being called up when rosters expanded on September 1st, but also allowed him to be carried on the Brewers postseason roster into October. The lack of left-handed bats on the big-league roster could continue to benefit Nelson moving forward, even if he is used primarily off of the bench.

Sleeper to Watch For, 2009:
Wily Peralta, RHP, Helena Brewers/West Virginia Power
Peralta was one of two promising pitchers the Brewers signed to impressive six-figure contracts during the 2005-06 offseason, although most considered Rolando Pascual to be the better overall prospect. While Peralta missed the entire 2007 season due to Tommy John surgery, Pascual has struggled to perform in the lower levels of the minor leagues. Peralta bounced back this past year by posting a 3.07 ERA and a 36 to eight strikeout to walk ratio in 15 appearances with the Helena Brewers on his way to being named one of the league's top prospects. He finished the year with the West Virginia Power, and offers arguably the best arm in the system after Jeffress and Omar Aguilar. His size and stuff profiles very similar to Aguilar's, with a mid-90s heater, potentially dominant slider and an improving changeup, and by this time next year he could be among the Brewers top 10-15 overall prospects, if he isn't already.

All-Brewerfan.net team 2008
In addition to naming a player and pitcher of the year, we would also like to name a first and second All-Brewerfan.net farm team for 2008. Each team has a player from each position, three starters and a reliever. Please note that these lists don't necessarily reflect the top prospects at each position, but the players at each position that enjoyed the most success during the 2008 season.

Position	First Team	Second Team
Starting Pitcher	Jeremy Jeffress	Chris Cody
Starting Pitcher	Evan Anundsen	Brae Wright
Starting Pitcher	Alexandre Periard	David Welch
Relief Pitcher	Omar Aguilar	Mitch Stetter
Catcher	Angel Salome	Jonathan Lucroy
First Base	Brad Nelson	Brock Kjeldgaard
Second Base	Mike Bell	Eric Farris
Third Base	Mat Gamel	Taylor Green
Shortstop	Alcides Escobar	Michael Marseco
Left Field	Cole Gillespie	Chris Dennis
Center Field	Michael Brantley	Laynce Nix
Right Field	Caleb Gindl	Erik Komatsu

2009 Roster Projection
Toby Harrmann took an early stab at what the rosters at each of the full season affiliates may look like when the teams take the field to open next season, including the Milwaukee Brewers. Please keep in mind that this is a best guess at this point in time, filling in the spots with players that are currently in the organization. While transactions aren't projected at this point in time, any omission of a player indicates that player is projected to be found with another organization, or in the case of the lower level rosters, with one of the two rookie-level affiliates.

Milwaukee Brewers

Hitters	Name	Pitchers	Name
Starting C	Jason Kendall	#1 Starter	Yovani Gallardo
Starting 1B	Prince Fielder	#2 Starter	Manny Parra
Starting 2B	Rickie Weeks	#3 Starter	Dave Bush
Starting 3B	Russell Branyan	#4 Starter	Seth McClung
Starting SS	J.J. Hardy	#5 Starter	Jeff Suppan
Starting LF	Ryan Braun	Closer	Salomon Torres
Starting CF	Mike Cameron	Long Relief	Carlos Villanueva
Starting RF	Corey Hart	Middle Relief #1	Todd Coffey
Bench - C	Mike Rivera	Middle Relief #2	Mitch Stetter
Bench - IF	Craig Counsell	Middle Relief #3	Tim Dillard
Bench - IF	Bill Hall	Setup-RHP	David Riske
Bench - IF	Casey McGehee	Setup-LHP	Brian Shouse
Bench - OF	Gabe Kapler	Bench - OF	Brad Nelson

Nashville Sounds

Hitters	Name	Pitchers	Name
Starting C	Angel Salome	#1 Starter	Mark DiFelice
Starting 1B	TBD	#2 Starter	Sam Narron
Starting 2B	Adam Heether	#3 Starter	Chris Narveson
Starting 3B	Mat Gamel	#4 Starter	Brae Wright
Starting SS	Alcides Escobar	#5 Starter	David Welch
Starting LF	Cole Gillespie	Closer	Luis Pena
Starting CF	Hernan Iribarren	Long Relief	Richie Gardner
Starting RF	Brendan Katin	Middle Relief #1	Joe Bateman
Bench - C	Carlos Corporan	Middle Relief #2	Dave Johnson
Bench - UT	Vinny Rottino	Middle Relief #3	Steve Bray
Bench - IF	TBD	Setup-RHP	Omar Aguilar
Bench - OF	TBD	Setup-LHP	Lindsay Gulin

Huntsville Stars

Hitters	Name	Pitchers	Name
Starting C	Jonathan Lucroy	#1 Starter	Jeremy Jeffress
Starting 1B	Chris Errecart	#2 Starter	Alexandre Periard
Starting 2B	Mike Bell	#3 Starter	Evan Anundsen
Starting 3B	Taylor Green	#4 Starter	Chris Cody
Starting SS	Michael Garciaparra	#5 Starter	Derek Miller
Starting LF	Brent Krause	Closer	Rob Wooten
Starting CF	Lorenzo Cain	Long Relief	Donovan Hand
Starting RF	Freddy Parejo	Middle Relief #1	Patrick Ryan
Bench - C	Lou Palmisano	Middle Relief #2	Mike McClendon
Bench - IF	Yohannis Perez	Middle Relief #3	Casey Baron
Bench - IF	Kenny Holmberg	Setup-RHP	Robert Hinton
Bench - OF	Charlie Fermaint	Setup-LHP	Bobby Bramhall

Brevard County Manatees

Hitters	Name	Pitchers	Name
Starting C	Eric Fryer	#1 Starter	Amaury Rivas
Starting 1B	Curt Rindal	#2 Starter	Zach Braddock
Starting 2B	Eric Farris	#3 Starter	Josh Butler
Starting 3B	Steffan Wilson	#4 Starter	R.J. Seidel
Starting SS	Brent Brewer	#5 Starter	Mike Ramlow
Starting LF	Stephen Chapman	Closer	Corey Frerichs
Starting CF	Lee Haydel	Piggyback Starter	Daniel Merklinger
Starting RF	Caleb Gindl	Middle Relief #1	Rafael Lluberes
Bench - C	Martin Maldonado	Middle Relief #2	Pedro Lambertus
Bench - C	Andy Bouchie	Middle Relief #3	Jose Garcia
Bench - IF	Zelous Wheeler	Setup-RHP	Curtis Pasma
Bench - IF	Matt Cline	Setup-RHP	Reed Dickert
Bench - OF	Chuck Caufield

Wisconsin Timber Rattlers

Hitters	Name	Pitchers	Name
Starting C	Brett Lawrie	#1 Starter	Evan Frederickson
Starting 1B	Brock Kjeldgaard	#2 Starter	Lucas Luetge
Starting 2B	Cutter Dykstra	#3 Starter	Wily Peralta
Starting 3B	John Delaney	#4 Starter	Michael Bowman
Starting SS	Mikey Marseco	#5 Starter	Cody Adams
Starting LF	Erik Komatsu	Closer	Garrett Sherrill
Starting CF	Logan Schafer	Piggyback #1	Efrain Nieves
Starting RF	Christopher Dennis	Piggyback #2	Cody Scarpetta
Bench - C	Anderson De La Rosa	Middle Relief #1	Nick Tyson
Bench - C	Corey Kemp	Middle Relief #2	Trey Watten
Bench - IF	David Fonseca	Setup-RHP	Adam Arnold
Bench - IF	Miguel Vasquez	Setup-RHP	Daniel Meadows
Bench - OF	Michael Vass

Short Hops
• After having five affiliates make the postseason during the 2007 season, only one affiliate did so this past year, the West Virginia Power. They did so in impressive fashion, winning the second half title of the Northern Division after finishing with a 32-37 record during the first half of the season. After beating the Lake County Captains in the first round of the Sally League playoffs, two games to one, they were swept by the Augusta GreenJackets in the best of five championship series.

• Speaking of the Power, they will no longer be the Brewers affiliate at the low-A level in the minor leagues. The Brewers have signed a four-year agreement with the Wisconsin Timber Rattlers as they return to the Midwest League, much to the excitement of Brewers fans given the proximity of the team's home ballpark, Fox Cities Stadium, in Appleton, Wisconsin. That ended the team's four-year relationship with the West Virginia organization, as they return to the league where they held a 23-year relationship with the Beloit Snappers/Brewers.

• All of the other Brewers affiliates will remain with the team for at least another two years.

• Collectively the Brewers affiliates finished with a 323-365 record (.469 winning percentage).

• Brewers fans had to patiently wait several months before the player to be named later in the trade with the Indians for CC Sabathia was announced. Outfielder Michael Brantley was chosen by the Indians to complete that trade despite earlier reports that the player was expected to be infielder Taylor Green.

• Green took Mat Gamel's spot in the Arizona Fall League, and is joined on the Peoria Javelinas roster by fellow organization mates catchers Angel Salome and Lou Palmisano, outfielder Lorenzo Cain and pitchers Jeremy Jeffress, David Welch, Omar Aguilar, Alexandre Periard and Brae Wright. Palmisano was a late addition, joining the Javelinas club more than a week into the AFL season.

• Outfielders Caleb Gindl and Logan Schafer, pitchers Chris Cody, Mike Ramlow and Cody Scarpetta as well as manager Mike Guerrero are currently representing the Brewers in the Hawaii Winter Baseball league playing for the West Oahu CaneFires. Scarpetta, like Palmisano in the AFL, was a late addition, joining the West Oahu club in mid-October.

• The Brewers had 13 of their prospects named to Baseball America's league-by-league top prospect lists: Jake Odorizzi and Seth Lintz of the Arizona League; Cutter Dykstra, Efrain Nieves, Wily Peralta and Erik Komatsu of the Pioneer League; Caleb Gindl of the South Atlantic League; Jeremy Jeffress, Taylor Green and Jonathan Lucroy of the Florida State League; and Alcides Escobar, Mat Gamel and Angel Salome of the Southern League. Matt LaPorta and Michael Brantley were also named to the Southern League top prospect list.

• Given the amount of early, extra draft picks the team had due to the departure of Type A free agents Francisco Cordero and Scott Linebrink last offseason, the team wasn't expected to make a big splash on the international free agent market. They did sign three notable players during the summer signing period: 16-year old Venezuelan outfielder Luis Chirinos and a pair of 19-year old Dominican right-handed pitchers, Jaime King and Jose Ramos.

Roundtable Discussion
In addition to the hardware handed out, the general season overview and the 2009 projection, we will now tackle several of the most important issues that arose during the 2008 minor league season while looking ahead to 2009.

Question #1
How excited are you to have a Brewers minor league affiliate moving back to the Midwest League? Are you going to make it a point to take in some games, and overall how would you expect the interest to be given the success of the Milwaukee Brewers?

Toby: Ever since Appleton got an affiliated minor league baseball team, it has seemed inevitable that they would eventually become part of the Brewers' minor league chain. The fit was too natural not to happen. Now that the inevitable is reality, it'll be interesting to me to see how much it sparks the interest of casual Brewers fans in the minor leagues and Brewer prospects. This union comes at a good time for the Timber Rattlers because there is currently so much interest statewide in the Brewers. Success breeds interest. I expect that many of those who haven't seen a minor league game in years, perhaps since Beloit was affiliated with the Brewers, will make the trek up to Appleton. I don't live in Wisconsin, so I might not get over to Appleton every year, but I will make a concerted effort to try. It certainly sounds more appealing than going to Beloit.

Patrick: While I understood the reasoning for the Brewers leaving Beloit to find greener pastures, I was always pretty bummed that I couldn't hop in my car and drive an hour to see some of the more exciting pieces to the Brewers future. I guess the Brewers aren't too concerned about the weather in April and even May to move back to the Midwest League, and I couldn't be happier to see that happening. Especially considering the facilities they will be playing in as compared to what they had in Beloit. I think the T-Rats are going to enjoy some record attendances next year, which will only strengthen their relationship with the big-league club, while the fans will get a taste of players such as Brett Lawrie and the bulk of the 2008 draft class, and I certainly will be one of those fans in attendance.

Jim: Many folks know that I'm a Massachusetts resident, so in terms of personal attendance, it's a non-factor for myself. However, from a Brewerfan Link Report standpoint, it appears that the online audio game package and local newspaper coverage will be on a par with the excellent standards that were set by the Charleston, West Virginia media. I'm looking forward to all the first-hand accounts we'll be getting; it will be as if Brewerfan acquired multiple correspondents. I'm sure others on the internet will make wonderful use of video and reporting tools to make the 2009 Timber Rattlers the most discussed minor league squad in Wisconsin history. The kids on the Wisconsin roster will be celebrities to be sure, ready or not.

Brad: More than anyone else, it seems, I'm really disappointed by this. In the last few years, I've gotten to go to many West Virginia Power games, and I'm going to deeply miss getting to see our farmhands play. On top of that, my hometown lost its minor league affiliation completely, so the closest place for baseball is now 90 miles away. On the other hand, I think increased awareness about the baseball and the Brewers will help the low-A team succeed in Appleton. I know you guys will have a blast getting to watch and meet the young guys.

Question #2
Are any of the players from the talented 2008 Huntsville Stars squad, particularly Mat Gamel and Alcides Escobar, ready to join the Brewers on a regular basis in 2009?

Brad: Maybe by the end of the year, but not right now. The most obvious proof of that was the Brewers unwillingness to play Mat or Alcides over guys like Brad Nelson, Craig Counsell, and Mike Lamb over the last month of the season. Mat's just not ready on defense and Alcides doesn't have a defined place to play yet. Truthfully, the Brewers have done fine without them, so holding off another year shouldn't hurt the team and it will aide the players in their development.

Patrick: Not to open the season, but it wouldn't surprise me to see both called up by midseason similar to how Braun and Gallardo were in 2007. Whether that happens due to Gamel and Escobar starting the year well in Nashville, filling a need at the big-league level due to injury or a combination of the two, I don't think it will be long until Brewers fans are watching those two on a regular basis. I think Omar Aguilar is a darkhorse to make the bullpen out of spring training.

Toby: Some of Doug Melvin's recent comments have fueled speculation that Mat Gamel could break camp with the Brewers as their 2009 Opening Day third bagger. Do I think that will happen? No. Here is why: While he may hit at an average level for a third baseman, say .270/.330/.450, that won't make up for the struggles he'd almost positively have on defense. His OBP wouldn't be an asset on team in need of better OBP, either. Gamel will see time in Milwaukee next year. It just won't be right away, and probably not until the All-Star break.

While Alcides Escobar would be a defensive upgrade over J.J. Hardy, Hardy is not a liability defensively on a team with numerous defensive liabilities. A solution to the third base situation could be moving Hardy to third, and thrusting Escobar in to shortstop. If this happens, the defense improves a bit, but the offense gets downgraded. Escobar might struggle to a .650 OPS if he went straight to Milwaukee to start the season. That would mitigate virtually all of his defensive value. Riding the bench as a utility guy would not be a good idea either, he needs to play. Again, like with Gamel, I expect to see him at some point, but it's not at the beginning of the year.

As for other members of the 2008 Stars, Angel Salome and Cole Gillespie will both be in AAA and might see action. Salome could arguably be an offensive upgrade to Jason Kendall right now, but he won't get the call until his defense is up to snuff. Gillespie, who played with a broken bone in his foot for most of 2008, will probably only see action if an injury occurs to one of the Brewers' outfielders. The Brewers don't want him riding the bench. On the pitching side, any one of Brae Wright, David Welch, Dave Johnson or Omar Aguilar could see time in Milwaukee in the bullpen. Jeremy Jeffress is still about a year away.

Jim: It was almost a relief to learn that Mat Gamel's second-half struggles were partially injury-related (right elbow tendonitis). It legitimizes his amazing first-half 2008 statistics even further. The Brewers are so dearly in need of a sweet left-handed stick in the lineup, that I could almost envision Doug Melvin handing the Opening Day third-base job to Gamel and hoping for the best defensively.

I still consider one of the biggest mistakes in Doug Melvin's tenure to be allowing J.J. Hardy to open the 2005 season on the Opening Day roster, instead of holding off his debut a la Ryan Braun. If Melvin had acted more prudently, Hardy would be in Brewer control for three more seasons instead of just two. J.J. Hardy will be traded either this offseason or next. More realistically, it will be after 2009, and Alcides Escobar will spend most of 2009 in AAA. But if Melvin feels the package he could garner for Hardy will be that much significant by dealing him two seasons from free agency, we'll see J.J. moved this winter and Escobar in Milwaukee on Opening Day (which would repeat the service time error made with J.J.).

And no, I won't be upset with Melvin if Escobar were to make his non-September debut Opening Day 2010, since he would have had a full AAA season under his belt (something Hardy did not have due to injury).

Question #3
Since Doug Melvin has shown a willingness to trade prospects to address needs at the big-league level particularly at the trade deadline, do you think he may start parting with some of these young players this offseason in an attempt to strengthen the team for 2009?

Patrick: After having the Brewers make the playoffs you would think so. He's going to need to address the starting rotation somehow, and the best way to pry young pitching away from other teams is to do so with younger, pre-arbitration talent.

Brad: Yes, I think we'll see some more prospects traded. I don't expect to see a lot of guys moved, but if the right deal came along, the Brewers are likely prepared to move basically anyone. From my perspective, I'd love to have Jake Peavy, and if that means trading Gamel and Jeffress, then I think you do it. I wouldn't trade prospects like that for anyone else, but to replace Ben Sheets with a better arm, I would move top prospects. After what we saw last year, I would assume Jack Z. likely has a similar view on things.

Jim: You may see a deal like the one in which Salomon Torres was acquired, with RHP's Kevin Roberts and Marino Salas being moved, marginal to mid-level guys. If there's an organizational agreement that Mat Gamel (anywhere on the diamond) or Angel Salome are beyond hope defensively, that would be the only circumstance you'd see one of the top 10 or so prospects being moved. And I don't believe the organization thinks that's the case, nor do I.

Toby: If the right deal comes along to "motivate" Melvin to move one of his prospects, he'll do it without a doubt. However, as the prospect pool has become somewhat thinned out due to recent trades, it might take a bit more to pry away the remaining top prospects. Doug Melvin knows that this team has to keep being reinforced by young players, and that mortgaging some of those young players for short-term veteran help is something that is tough to sustain over the long term. So for the purposes of this offseason, Gamel, Escobar, Jeffress, Green and either Salome or Green all have to be considered about as close to untouchable as is possible. A Fielder trade may be more likely than a Gamel trade at this point.

Question #4
Given the addition of Lawrie, the emergence of Fryer, and the continued success of both Salome and Lucroy, do you feel that the Brewers catcher of the future is among that quartet?

Jim: For me, Salome's dominance of AA pitching was a watershed moment in terms of saying, "wow, the Brewers really do have a future big-league catcher here," even if Angel's body and offensive approach may eventually make him one of the most unique big leaguers of our time. You can't ignore a .973 OPS as a young 22-year-old taking his first AA hacks. Lucroy seems to be so solid and his intangibles so strong that you can only be excited about his projected career path. But please, who is Brett Lawrie and the Brewers kidding? An advanced and athletic bat like his needs to be in a lineup 160 games a year, not 120, and it needs to reach Milwaukee more quickly than a catcher's educational path allows.

Toby: Let's not forget Lou Palmisano or Shawn Zarraga on that list, either. The Brewers are as loaded with catching prospects as any minor league system I have ever seen, so you have to figure a long term solution is in there some place. Obviously not all of those guys are going to be the catcher of the future, so it will be interesting to follow who continues to make progress defensively and at the plate, maybe who switches positions, and who gets traded.

Lucroy and Salome have to be considered the front-runners at the moment. The edge, slight as it is, goes to Lucroy right now in my book, because he is more polished behind the plate. A healthy Palmisano will push both of those guys this year, as will Fryer and Lawrie. All the competition makes this a good battle, and it should make everyone a little better.

Patrick: I'd love to be able to confidently answer 'yes' to this question, but until the Brewers actually develop a catcher that can stick around for a while, I will remain skeptical. I like Lucroy's chances the best out of that group, just because everything we have heard leads me to believe he is the most polished across the board and the most likely to stick behind the plate while also hitting enough to be a big-league regular. He may even leap-frog Salome at some point if Angel doesn't dramatically improve defensively. I don't consider Fryer to be on the same level as a prospect, and I think Lawrie will eventually move to another position which should allow his bat to carry him more quickly to Milwaukee.

Brad: I hope so. I have lost the ability to trust catching prospects, as it seems as though they burn out at a higher rate. To make matters more depressing, a huge number get to the majors and then decline back towards the median. Plenty of today's journeyman catchers were once top prospects. That's all fine and dandy, after all Jason Kendall is a decent ball player, but considering all the catchers in the bigs, the odds of one of our guys becoming a star at the position are low. That said, I still view Lucroy as a well rounded prospect who should hit a ton at the higher levels. Angel remains a mystery with the glove, but his bat is mighty. Who knows what will happen with him. Fryer, however, I don't consider in the same breath. He's a talented minor league player, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him fall away as he advances.

Question #5
The organization didn't have a clear-cut favorite as the pitcher of the year but they did address the system need for arms by drafting a ton of arms. Are you confident that a pitcher or two will emerge from that group to help strengthen what seems to be an organizational weakness?

Toby: When 20 of your first 27 draft picks are pitchers, you sure hope one or two of them turn out to be something. None of them have fully emerged from the pack just yet. While the spotlight will be on the top picks, such as Jake Odorizzi and Cody Adams, I think a couple of the mid-lower round guys have a good shot too - Blake Billings and Damon Krestalude are two of the pitchers I'm watching closely.

I also don't think the pitching depth in the minor league system is necessarily a weakness. When you pluck a Yovani Gallardo and a Manny Parra out of the minors in consecutive years, the top of the farm system obviously won't be as strong. However, I think there is plenty of depth in the low minors, now reaching into AA. Of course there's Jeremy Jeffress, there's Alex Periard, I think Evan Anundsen gets pushed up to AA next year, Brae Wright had a terrific year for Huntsville as did David Welch, not to mention relief guys like Tim Dillard, Omar Aguilar, Luis Pena, and Rob Hinton. I think the depth is there, it's just there isn't an obvious top-end talent to complement Jeffress. I believe a pitcher or two will emerge next year to be that compliment, though not necessarily from the clump of guys the Brewers drafted in '08.

Brad: I sure hope so, pitching is incredibly fickle. We pick on the team for drafting high school pitchers and for not successfully getting guys to the bigs, but they are actually very good at it. We began the season with three above average-star pitchers that were drafted by the Brewers in the rotation, and two of those guys should be around for a long time. We want to be blown away by the minor leaguers and await their future greatness, but minor league numbers are massively deceptive. So, I wasn't too impressed this year, but at the same time, I have realized that there is so much more to developing pitchers than there is hitters. Finding a pitcher that is consistently good is very challenging. Jack Z's method of drafting a bunch and seeing what sticks as well as Melvin's good job of acquiring proven pitchers has worked very well. So, while I was disheartened by results this year, I have faith that things will turn around. Oh yeah, Jeffress is a stud.

Jim: Well, somebody's going to emerge, just from a sheer numbers standpoint, but I can't say I'm as confident as Toby about the overall strength of the organization's pitchers. I have thoroughly enjoyed following Alex Periard and Evan Anundsen, as they seem to have made textbook seasonal strides and advances as extremely young high-school draft picks from non-traditional year-round baseball climates (Quebec and Colorado, respectively). But it was a very frustrating minor league season pitching-wise, or at least it was to this observer. I've promised myself I won't be losing myself in Zach Braddock-mania until he makes 20 consecutive starts, although I secretly will admit that's hard to avoid, given his off-the-charts power southpaw potential. The Evan Frederickson selection has me thoroughly concerned, so prove me wrong, Evan.

Patrick: The Brewers have had some decent fortune having a pitcher or two step forward to excel more than previous expectations from the system each year, at least recently. This year it was Wily Peralta. Last year it was Zach Braddock. Next year it may be one of the recent draftees, and there are plenty of other candidates such as Cody Scarpetta and Efrain Nieves from the rookie level or even Evan Anundsen and R.J. Seidel, who should benefit from pitching in the Florida State League. Of course you can never have too much pitching, and I'm guessing this will continue to be their focus in the draft of which they likely will once again have extra, early picks to play with. It does concern me that they don't have too many options to turn to at the upper levels of the system, as I'm not convinced that guys like Brae Wright and Alexandre Periard are going to provide the depth needed in the event one of the team's big-league starters falls to injury.

Question #6
Among the hitters, are there any positions that concern you?

Brad: Corner Infield. I say this in a half-true manner. Mat Gamel should be a good regular at one of the corners. However, if we have to move Gamel to first base, then there will be a hole at third. The opposite is true if Gamel isn't moved but Fielder is traded. Perhaps the biggest weakness in the system is power. Many complained about the team's over-reliance on home runs this year, but power is a necessary element to the team. Once LaPorta was traded, it became clear that this team is devoid of real power prospects. Hopefully this will be addressed in June.

Patrick: For as much outfield depth as the team has, they still have not been able to develop a solid centerfielder. Krynzel didn't pan out, Gwynn appears to be way too light with his bat, Brantley and Ford were traded, Cain has played right field for much of his professional career, and each player of the next wave is far from a sure thing. First base also is a concern, since it would seem as though the Brewers are going to have to find a replacement for Fielder sooner rather than later.

Toby: There isn't one position in particular that concerns me. Part of the reason for that is the relative strength of the big league club. I look at the Brewers and see that most of the positions aren't in desperate need of a minor league influx. Assuming things stay moderately settled with the Brewers' roster, the minor league system will only need to produce one or two outfielders, a third baseman, a catcher, and maybe a first baseman over the next few years. And I think they are in good position to fill all of those needs as they come up, save for a third baseman this coming year. As long as the minor league system can do a good job filling holes on the big league roster, I feel good about it.

If I got a little nitpicky, I'd say the second basemen in the system are fairly nondescript, mostly because I'm not sold on Eric Farris just yet, and Mike Bell didn't have a great year. Then again, Taylor Green could slide over to second and make that concern go away. I could also say the outfield depth certainly isn't what it was now that Brantley, LaPorta and Ford have been traded. That puts a bit more pressure on Lorenzo Cain and Cole Gillespie, but the Brewers don't have a pressing need for an outfielder this year, so I don't think it's a big deal. Mat Gamel could always be moved to the outfield (or first base) if third base doesn't work out for him. That is why I'm not worried about first base, either.

Jim: I haven't analyzed recent drafts throughout baseball specifically as it pertains to my one note here, but wouldn't it be nice to have a legitimate prospect who was a switch-hitter anywhere in the system? Actually, soon-to-be 25-year-old defensive stud catcher Carlos Corporan may actually be considered a legitimate prospect in many organizations, and he isn't even mentioned in the catcher talk here. If Carlos has been scouted properly by others, Doug Melvin has probably fielded some inquiries on him.

Question #7
While we didn't get a taste of what Brett Lawrie can do since he signed an '09 deal, what are your impressions of the 2008 draft class?

Patrick: I think everyone was expecting more, at least statistically, from some of the higher draft picks, but there were some encouraging things to take from those debut performances. Erik Komatsu and Logan Schafer of course were solid, and while Cutter Dykstra finished the season cold, he more than held his own. Cody Adams finished strong, Jake Odorizzi enjoyed success in all but one of his appearances, and Seth Lintz struck out a ton of batters despite being knocked around. A pair of their lefty college pitchers, Evan Frederickson and Lucas Luetge, both got the bump to West Virginia, and while the more heralded Frederickson struggled with command, Luetge was rock solid down the stretch.

We definitely have to be patient to see how these players respond during their first full season next year, especially since the organization was clearly being cautious with the use of all of the pitchers they drafted, and it will also be interesting to see where and how they all fit in to open the 2009 season. However, I know everyone wanted to be "wowed" a little more than we were with the early returns, and that might have been because we weren't able to get a taste for what Lawrie is capable of.

Jim: Yovani Gallardo has spoiled us all in terms of expectations on the mound. For all of Jack Z.'s wonderful works, his drafts are scattered with top six round pitchers such as Eric Thomas, Robbie Wooley, Josh Wahpapah, and Josh Baker, among others. It's ridiculously early for us to form opinions of high schoolers Jake Odorizzi and Seth Lintz. Cutter Dykstra should be a hoot to follow in Appleton. But I miss the draft-and-follow process already. To be honest, if first impressions mean anything, and I guess they do, consider me underwhelmed on 2008 given all the extra picks.

Toby: The 2008 draft class has the chance to be the final crown jewel in Jack Zduriencik's reign as scouting director with the Brewers, though it also has a chance to tarnish his legacy a little if the pitching comes up dry. I like pitching prospects about as much as anyone, and if you like pitching prospects, it would be hard not to get a little excited about this draft, if only from a quantity standpoint. And as with most drafts, a large part of the tale will be told with how the top few picks do. I am confident in Brett Lawrie's abilities at the plate, and I think he can stick at catcher too. I think he'll turn out to be a good one.

Brad: I like the outfielders but I think the jury's still out on the pitchers. No one really leapt out at us in rookie ball besides Komatsu, but that could just be because there weren't a bunch of 23 year old college seniors out there dominating this year.

Question #8
While he certainly deserved the opportunity, how big of a blow was it to have Jack Zduriencik leave the team to become the general manager of the Seattle Mariners?

Brad: It's a big loss, but he's just one guy in a well run organization, and I can't imagine the team's drafting philosophy changing drastically. As noted by others, several of his scouts have moved on to higher positions with other organizations, so I feel comfortable he's left a well trained staff. It sucks, but his value on his own has probably been overstated for awhile. It kind of reminds me of when Leo Mazzone left Atlanta a few years ago. Leo had a huge impact in Atlanta, but he wasn't the only cog that made the Braves a good team. That was proven when the Orioles didn't immediately become contenders.

Toby: The impact won't turn out to be as big as I get the impression many people think it will be. One of Zduriencik's points of pride about his staff was that there was communication and accountability up and down the ranks. I believe this attitude will continue under the new scouting director, and I also believe that's what had made the Brewers' scouting department so good under Zduriencik's reign. The ultimate impact won't be known for years and the changes we see in drafting philosophy will be slight. For the most part, it will still be the same scouts doing their jobs, and since they've done their jobs well in the past, I see no reason that will change. Zduriencik's leadership will be missed for sure, but the foundation he laid will keep the Brewers' scouting department among the best.

Patrick: It is potentially a huge blow to the organization, and one that may not be felt until three to five years down the road. Part of me is encouraged that Zduriencik put enough pieces in place for the success to continue, but what happens if he picks apart the Brewers scouting department to take a few key contributors with him to Seattle? Melvin does have a background in scouting as well, and oversaw a fine scouting and player development system when he was with the Rangers, but it's impossible to see the guy responsible for filling the Brewers with the bulk of their young talent leave and not be concerned about the lasting effect it could have.

Jim: What do they say about the law of averages? Isn't Jack due for a clunker draft or two? If so, it'll be on the Mariners watch. Thanks for everything, Jack.

Question #9
What are your impressions/projections for the 2009 season? Which affiliates are you most excited to watch, which levels will be stocked with the most interesting collection of talent and do you have any predictions relative to players and what we might see next year?

Jim: Nashville is going to be insanely more interesting to follow than the tepid 2008 collection of Sounds, and that's not said purely from a won-loss standpoint. The 2007 West Virginia / 2008 Brevard bunch has been relatively anonymous outside of Taylor Green for a couple of years now (although somewhat productive), but heck, I find all the affiliate levels fascinating in their own way.

Patrick: Nashville, Huntsville and Wisconsin could be very solid from top to bottom. Nashville is the most exciting to me since they will have quite a few players that will be on the brink of contributing, something that was clearly lacking this past year. Wisconsin will be the most exciting from a pure fan experience, especially if Brett Lawrie plays there at some point next year. I think Taylor Green will start to make a few more believers of his play, and will convert those disappointed that he wasn't the player to be named in the Sabathia deal with a strong, MVP type season in the Southern League. Caleb Gindl will continue to rake in the Florida State League, and will continue the line of strong left-handed hitters producing there following in the footsteps of Gamel and Green (the killer "G's").

Brad: I'm most excited to watch Huntsville. They should be as strong as last year, and I can't wait to see what Taylor Green and Jonathon Lucroy do there. I think both of those guys are going to hit 20 homers and bat .300. I also think we will see Jeffress in the bigs at some point next season.

Toby: The thing I'm most looking forward to is how the pitching shakes out. As I talked about earlier, I have a feeling that a few pitchers are really going to step forward. All of the pitching staffs below AAA will be interesting to watch for various reasons. No team stands out to me as the most interesting because the talent depth is spread pretty evenly. Nashville, Huntsville and Brevard each have a mix of some stud prospects and some organizational guys in their lineups. To that end, the Timber Rattlers may be the most interesting team due to Lawrie and the rest of the talent making their full-season debuts.

[Mike]

Guys,

 

What is the difference between the two? For example you show Steven Chapman as the starting LF in B.C. yet three (3) OF's on the Power 50 are all projected to be in Wisconsin (Low A). Chapman does not appear on the Power 50.

 

There just seems to be a disconnect. Please explain the relationship and is the Power 50 a measure of last years sucess or who you think is quickest to Milwaukee?

 

Thanks

[pogokat]

The power 50 is a reflection of their status as prospects, i does not have much to do with what level they are playing at

 

of course, the level they reach and their age matter a grat deal when discussing prospect status, but status alone does not determine where a player plas in the system

 

Chapman is in high A because he's been in the system much longer than those other guys...also, steve would be repeating in Brevard, so he's seemingly lost his prospect status.

 

Chapman spent two whole years on the power 50 before this month, so he was once more highly regarded

[twobrewers]

Looking at the starting pitching for the "All Brewerfan.net Team" is pretty depressing. Lets hope some 2008 draft picks pan out.

Huntsville's projected line up looks really good again.

The Arizona Fall League has been so depressing.
Gamel really had a chance to show he could handle 3B in the MLB for 2009 - only to be shut down for the year with a sore elbow. Then Green really had a chance to shine while taking his place - only to take a ball off the face. Jeffress had a chance to show he might be able to contribute out of the pen in 2009 - only to develop a sore shoulder. And Salome, while mature offensively, really needed to get some work on his defense. Frustrating!

Lastly, I wonder how the combination of Pena and Aguilar will shake out in Nashville.

[colbyjack]

The story is now up on the homepage:

 

http://www.brewerfan.net/...Hops.do?dailyReportId=496

[LouisEly]

One thing that I think gets lost in the shuffle is part of the reason for all the pitchers in the 2008 draft class was need, but part of it was being so stocked at the fielding positions and so young at the ML level that there wasn't any real need. I was disappointed that Connor Gillaspie didn't last until #32, as I thought Jack Z would snatch him up if available; he would make a nice contingency play if Gamel's defense forces him away from 3B and I was worried that Green would be the PTBNL. I would second that 2B is rather weak, but you could slide Green over there and I would not be at all surprised if the long term plan is to slide Hardy over to 3B and move Green to 2B. And of course Lawrie could always move over to 3B - BJ Surhoff did exactly that, and if Lawrie has a career like Surhoff it will have been a great pick. And if Weeks should happen to finally put it all together he is still only 25 so he could be around for quite a while longer too.

 

Not to nitpick, but I would probably switch Palmisano and Corporan. And now with the retirement of Torres they may have to part with some prospects to get some bullpen help, and I expect them to do just that. Until that happens, I'd pencil in DiFelice as the #5 starter and either McClung or Riske as the closer.